Trade Jay Bruce

[Ceetar]

LeiterWagnerFasterStrongr wrote: I think you guys have an outsized opinion of the trade value of thirtysomething, um, offense-forward outfielders with market-rate salaries. A good reliever under multiple years of team control is about the roof for one of these guys. Any team trading for one of our corner outfielders is not going to give up a younger, talented outfielder for him.

no, but they might give up a single A type prospect that they've soured on but the Mets like. feel like there are probably at least a dozen of those guys out there. You can find and make talented relievers out of thin air practically, not worth weakened the team by trading Granderson for that. Bruce yes, Curtis no.

[Centerfield]

If all we can get is a Fernando Salas-type, then I'd be inclined to just hang on to both and sign Fernando Salas.

Isn't it fair to say the market value for Bruce should be a ML-ready not-quite-blue-chip-but-still-promising hitter and an A ball pitcher with some upside?

[Benjamin Grimm]

Yes, except that the market is a bit different in December than it is in late July. The Reds may have had fewer teams that were looking to take on a high-salary veteran at that point in the season when teams are falling into the categories of "buyers" and "sellers". But on the other hand, in July the subset teams that are buyers may be more desperate, so the Reds may have had more leverage. It's hard to say for sure.

[Guest John Cougar Lunchbucket]

Centerfield wrote: If all we can get is a Fernando Salas-type, then I'd be inclined to just hang on to both and sign Fernando Salas. Isn't it fair to say the market value for Bruce should be a ML-ready not-quite-blue-chip-but-still-promising hitter and an A ball pitcher with some upside?

I think me and Radd might have a bet on this. I am taking "Winter Return" and he has "Summer Giveaway."

[Vic Sage]

wait, i'm betting on what exactly?

[Guest John Cougar Lunchbucket]

I thought we discussed the idea of whether whatever we get for Bruce turns out to be better or worse than what we gave up to get him.

I might have only baited you to take a bet on that, I forget the details.

But I firmly believe (or am just rooting for) the idea that whatever we get for Bruce, I wouldn;t want to trade for Hererra and Wotell. Any takers say no?

(I don't bet real money, just pride at stake)

[Vic Sage]

John Cougar Lunchbucket wrote: I thought we discussed the idea of whether whatever we get for Bruce turns out to be better or worse than what we gave up to get him. I might have only baited you to take a bet on that, I forget the details. But I firmly believe (or am just rooting for) the idea that whatever we get for Bruce, I wouldn;t want to trade for Hererra and Wotell. Any takers say no? (I don't bet real money, just pride at stake)

if you mean can we get another team to give us 2 prospects (at least 1 of which is among their top 10) for Bruce, then yeah, i don't think so, and i'll take the bet. If you want to count a serviceable major league middle-inning/set-up guy (whose upside has already been determined) as being "better" than the potential of a team's top 10 prospect (whose future is unknowable at the time of the trade, but whose potential is greater than such a relief pitcher), then no, i won't take the bet.

[Guest John Cougar Lunchbucket]

Just for fun let's ask ourselves after its all done whether we'd then trade the Reds haul for the Mets haul.

[Guest Mets Guy in Michigan]

I worry that we are selling Bruce short because we saw him at his worst. Guy had 99 RBI and a stack of homers. Granted, a big chunk of that was in the Cincy bandbox. But I fear there is thought to ship him out to clear the roster spot.

[Edgy MD]

The reality is that we got a guy leading the league in RBI, and his pace slowed considerably, suggesting his contract depreciated as an asset in the interim. And, of course, the Mets traded for eight months of him, and are now shopping six months of him.

That said, if the Mets have been shrewd, that certainly doesn't mean they can't get more for him than they gave up. It's certainly a challenge, but we'll see. We're talking about the defending executive of the year!

(Which will change in about 10 minutes when the 2016 award goes to Theo Epstein.)

[Guest LeiterWagnerFasterStrongr]

Salas wasn't what I was thinking. More like, Kelvin Herrera just before breakout, or, like, young Joe Smith.

Again, if a team had a good-not-great ML-ready OF prospect, why on EARTH would they trade him for decline-phase, possibly-not-overall-good-anymore Jay Bruce instead of just playing/PT-ing him?

If it seems like we're selling low, well, that might be underlined by the fact that we bought high.

[Benjamin Grimm]

LeiterWagnerFasterStrongr wrote: Again, if a team had a good-not-great ML-ready OF prospect, why on EARTH would they trade him for decline-phase, possibly-not-overall-good-anymore Jay Bruce instead of just playing/PT-ing him?

I wasn't thinking someone major-league ready. I was thinking of an outfielder who might be ready in 2018 instead.

[MFS62]

I'm suggesting lefty hitting Bruce for righty hitting Ryan Braun, who has three or four more years on his contract (the next 2 @ 20 million). Fill in with AAAA types on both sides.
Then the Mets trade Granderson for the help/ prospects needed to offset the budget bulge.

Later

[Ceetar]

MFS62 wrote: I'm suggesting lefty hitting Bruce for righty hitting Ryan Braun, who has three or four more years on his contract (the next 2 @ 20 million). Fill in with AAAA types on both sides. Then the Mets trade Granderson for the help/ prospects needed to offset the budget bulge. Later

Braun had almost the same wRC+ (weighted runs created) as Cespedes. That'd be a steal.

[Vic Sage]

Ceetar wrote: MFS62 wrote: I'm suggesting lefty hitting Bruce for righty hitting Ryan Braun, who has three or four more years on his contract (the next 2 @ 20 million). Fill in with AAAA types on both sides. Then the Mets trade Granderson for the help/ prospects needed to offset the budget bulge. Later Braun had almost the same wRC+ (weighted runs created) as Cespedes. That'd be a steal.

it's not a steal, it's a hallucination. Hey, MFS, lie down and let it pass.

[MFS62]

Vic Sage wrote: I'm suggesting lefty hitting Bruce for righty hitting Ryan Braun, who has three or four more years on his contract (the next 2 @ 20 million). Fill in with AAAA types on both sides. Then the Mets trade Granderson for the help/ prospects needed to offset the budget bulge. Later Braun had almost the same wRC+ (weighted runs created) as Cespedes. That'd be a steal. it's not a steal, it's a hallucination. Hey, MFS, lie down and let it pass.

It was a genu-wine WATP, and don't you forget it.
I was curious to see how long it would take for someone to notice/ comment on it.

Later

[ashie62]

Bruce for Braun.

I would take Braun on either an analytical or subjective basis.

[nymr83]

Braun, 33 this year, is owed a lot of money for a long time - between him and Wright the Mets could be sitting on some fat dead contracts right around the time the pitchers all become FA eligible. I still wouldnt say no to Bruce straight up, but MIL doesnt do that and i wont throw in a decent pitcher to get that done

[Mex17]

I think that teams right now are trying to see if Sandy is going to panic and sell low on Bruce because they think that Sandy is afraid to go into Spring Training with both Bruce and Grandy on the roster. Sandy, in turn, needs to be willing to show that he is ready to play out the whole year with both of them (Grandy in CF and Bruce in RF). If that means that Conforto needs to get his playing time in Vegas this year, so be it.

That's not ideal, but it's better than getting crud for a guy who has consistently displayed 25-30 HR and 80-100 RBI potential and who is still just 29 years old.

[Edgy MD]

If Alderson has demonstrated nothing else during his tenure, he's demonstrated a willingness to wait out the marketplace and work alternate partners in order to get the deal he wants.

[Centerfield]

Edgy MD wrote: If Alderson has demonstrated nothing else during his tenure, he's demonstrated a willingness to wait out the marketplace and work alternate partners in order to get the deal he wants.

Yup.

On Braun, he may, and likely will, fade before the end of the contract, but he's coming off a strong year. 900+ OPS. Really only one off year in the past several. The guy can hit.

[nymr83]

where is his defense these days? its not the late 90's anymore where you trot Adam Dunn out to fake a position... or Derek Jeter.

[Centerfield]

Nymr83 wrote: where is his defense these days? its not the late 90's anymore where you trot Adam Dunn out to fake a position... or Derek Jeter.

No idea. But my point is that Braun is still going strong, while David is basically shot.

So frustrating. You figure without the stenosis, Wright might be putting up these numbers himself.

[Vic Sage]

Not that this trade is rumored or even a remote possibility, but Braun is so much a better player than Bruce that it's not even worth a discussion. For 9 of his 10 seasons, Braun's lowest OPS+ (130) is higher than any season of Bruce's career. Even Braun's worst year (113 OPS+ in 2014) is higher than Bruce's career average (109+). Over a similar number of plate appearances, Braun has averaged a WAR of 4.4/yr, while Bruce has produced 1.6. You don't like OPS+ or WAR? RC/game is 7.2 to 5.1. Come up with any evaluative measure you want, Braun is way better. And whatever his defensive deficiencies at this point, he's still a better OFer than Bruce (he is now and always was). But talking about defense for a corner OFer with a career .910 ops and a 141 OPS+ (!) is like evaluating Beyonce's sex appeal based on her personality. What fucking difference does it make?

As for age and contract, Braun will play next season at age 33 (with Bruce turning 30), and Braun's contract averages $20m/yr for 4 more years (his age 33-36 seasons), neither of which are huge numbers for that sort of production these days. So it would take more than just a decent pitching prospect for the Brewers to even consider a Bruce/Braun deal, and i would hope that, in whatever alternate reality such a proposal was made, Sandy would leap at it, as long as pitcher does not include our top 5 major league starters [syndegaard-degrom-harvey-matz-wheeler). I'd be ok with Gsellman (or Lugo, Ynoa, Montero, etc.) + Bruce for Braun. If they insisted on either of our top pitching prospects, Dunn or Szapucki (instead of Gsellman etal), i'd want a decent prospect back, too.

And i don't know how Wright's contract factors into this discussion at all. Oh, and i'd take Adam Dunn in his prime in a heartbeat.

Edited December 7, 2016 by Guest

[Edgy MD]

Man, and you used to argue for Bruce winning a Gold Glove.

[Vic Sage]

i did?

[Edgy MD]

It totally happened!

[Vic Sage]

i think i need to lie down.

[ashie62]

There appears to be minimal interest from other teams for Bruce or Granderson at this point.

[Edgy MD]

I would say that it's probably not minimal, so much as not maximal enough to entice the Mets to deal just yet.