Sign Murphy NOW!!!!

[TransMonk]

Ceetar wrote: I don't think GMs are dumb enough to be fooled by a hot stretch of games in the NLCS

But it's not just that stretch. Murphy's OPS+ for the past 5 years are 113, 111, 108, 103 and 126. His batting averages: .281, .289, .286, .291 and .320.

He is not a world beater, but he is the model of consistency. I'm sure teams are looking at that, too.

[Edgy MD]

Lefty Specialist wrote: Hell, he was making $8 mil this year and he had no leverage.

Sure he did. He had arbitration.

I also don't think he'll get five years and $70 million.

[Lefty Specialist]

Arb isn't the same as free agency. People are now competing for your services.

[Zvon]

So if I'm the GM I can extend the QO, right?

If so I stick with my plan of last week: 2 yrs, 24-27 million with incentives. The fan in me would go 3 yrs, 36 million, but the GM in me doesn't like the 3 yrs.
If he can get 4 years somewhere else, great for him.

This is going to be interesting. I think I read the Mets have to make the QO by this Friday.

[Edgy MD]

Sandy's Friday To-Do List

1. Hydrate.
   
   
   
2. Extend qualifying offer to Daniel Murphy.
   
   
   
3. Make list of potential coachies to replace Bob Geren.
   
   
   
4. Talk to Terry about bullpen philosophy.
   
   
   
5. Download Next Stop Wonderland on Netflix.

[metsmarathon]

i like murphy.

i like that he's a consistent hitter - a "professional hitter" if you will.
i like that he's versatile - trying the outfield though he came up as a 3b. then finally, improbably, sticking at second. all with a side order of being probably our best backups at 3b and 1b.
i like that he tries really hard in the field - sometimes trying too hard and making mistakes.
i like that he tries really hard on the basepaths - sometimes trying too hard and making mistakes.

i'd like to see him come back. i really would. but not for 5 years, and not for 4 years. i give him 3 years at $40M, and if another team is willing to over pay for him, i thank him most gratefully for his service.

[Benjamin Grimm]

I agree with that. I also like Murphy, and would be glad to have him back for three years and $40 million. But as you say, it would be a mistake to go to a fourth year or much more money than that.

It's hard to say what his market will be. I suppose it's possible that $40 million over three might be the best offer he'll get, but I suspect it might not be that likely.

[metsmarathon]

the good folks over at fangraphs have crowdsourced the free agent market, as they tend to do.

daniel murphy comes in ranked 18th in terms of projected total contract value, with a median of 4 years, $48M, (crowdsourced average of 3.7 years at $12.6M)

[Centerfield]

Reports are that the Mets are still mulling over the QO. Not sure that is true or not, but man, what is there to mull over.

You extend the QO without question. Come on guys.

[Ceetar]

Centerfield wrote: Reports are that the Mets are still mulling over the QO. Not sure that is true or not, but man, what is there to mull over. You extend the QO without question. Come on guys.

Not if they get Murphy to sign a contract first. But that's mostly just GMs being unwilling to say outright what they're going to do.

Unless there is something shady going on. "Hey Blue Jays, sure, we won't QO Murphy so you can sign him w/o losing a pick, BUT you're giving us a break on the deal for Tulo"

[Centerfield]

Guys. Daniel Murphy. QO. Let's go.

You will most likely get a draft pick out of this. Which fits into our scouting/development approach.

Worst case scenario, you get Daniel Murphy, October Hero, for 1 more year.

No brainer guys.

[ashie62]

I think the qualifying is more than enough.

[Edgy MD]

Lefty Specialist wrote: Arb isn't the same as free agency. People are now competing for your services.

Neither is it no leverage.

[Vic Sage]

Babe Ruth Murphy came back to Earth in the WS. He's a .290/10-14HR bat, which is very good, but not great. He's versatile and aggressive, but a bit of a bonehead in the field and on the bases, and he'll be 31 at the beginning of next season. Plus, 2 of the better young players on the 40-man (Flores, Herrera) play 2b better than he does... in fact, Murphy's best defensive position is DH.

QO, that's it.

[Edgy MD]

It's funny. Murphy might end up being that guy who gets totally screwed by the qualifying offer. The guy who other teams think might be a good piece but they don't want to give him a multi-year contract and give up a first-round draft pick.

On the other hand, he could sign with a bottom tier team like Colorado. They would only give up a second-round pick and he'd hit the ball all over the place in Denver. I'm probably crazy, but I could totally see him putting up a four-digit OPS in that park.

[Lefty Specialist]

Well, the QO is official. Good boy, Sandy.

[Farmer Ted]

I don't think the market is going to be as friendly to Murph as some in the media portray. We're talking $16 million to push aside for what, the Yankees or Pirates? He's going to get the QO, look around a bit, and show up in PSL in February.

[Benjamin Grimm]

Well, rejecting the QO in favor of a three-year contract, for example, gives him more security, even if the average annual value is less.

If Murphy accepts the QO he'll have to try free agency again next year, and one year from now he'll be older and (presumably) not coming off a superstar postseason.

[Ceetar]

he has to reject the QO pretty soon. Before he negotiates with other clubs.

[batmagadanleadoff]

If Murphy accepts the QO, the Mets payroll goes to about $110M, before a single free agent is signed. Good luck with that. Look for the Mets to salary dump Niese and his $9M no matter what happens.

[Centerfield]

Wow, I didn't realize that Murphy only had one week to accept the QO.

No brainer then. No way he takes it. Free draft pick!

[Edgy MD]

batmagadanleadoff wrote: If Murphy accepts the QO, the Mets payroll goes to about $110M, before a single free agent is signed. Good luck with that. Look for the Mets to salary dump Niese and his $9M no matter what happens.

Well, you said that last year too.

I'm guessing it's a moot point. Murphy likely won't accept it because nobody does.

[batmagadanleadoff]

Edgy MD wrote: batmagadanleadoff wrote: If Murphy accepts the QO, the Mets payroll goes to about $110M, before a single free agent is signed. Good luck with that. Look for the Mets to salary dump Niese and his $9M no matter what happens. Well, you said that last year too. I'm guessing it's a moot point. Murphy likely won't accept it because nobody does.

Well, I said it with respect to Gee, who got a reprieve because of Wheeler's injury. But on second thought, the Mets might not be so quick to move Niese, especially since Wheeler isn't scheduled to return until at least a few months into next season.

But on third thought, Niese is the Mets highest paid pitcher (by a lot) and the 4th highest paid player overall. So given that Niese plays for a team that, unfortunately, places a disproportionately high emphasis on money concerns when making roster decisions, well that cuts towards Niese going.

[Ceetar]

Not as much as Niese being a talented lefty pitcher that's not old, has a friendly contract (in terms of value per $ anyway) and the Mets have some depth. He's worth more to another team and the Mets might be able to leverage that to fill positions that can't fill as easily by buying a free agent.

[batmagadanleadoff]

Ceetar wrote: Not as much as Niese being a talented lefty pitcher that's not old, has a friendly contract (in terms of value per $ anyway) and the Mets have some depth. He's worth more to another team and the Mets might be able to leverage that to fill positions that can't fill as easily by buying a free agent.

On fourth thought, there's also Verrett and Montero in the wings. This cut towards Niese going. I agree that Niese's contract is "friendly". It's the going rate, in fact. If a team wants a starter with Niese's experience (i.e., service time) who's demonstrated that he's worthy of being in the regular rotation and deserving enough innings pitched to qualify for the ERA title, $9M is about what a team's gonna pay, and that's just for a regular pitcher, not a star. But for the Mets, $9M a year is like $20M for another team.

What kind of a player do you think the Mets can get for Niese (putting salary aside for now)? And don't tell me Mike Trout.

[Edgy MD]

Edgy MD wrote: It's funny. Murphy might end up being that guy who gets totally screwed by the qualifying offer. The guy who other teams think might be a good piece but they don't want to give him a multi-year contract and give up a first-round draft pick. On the other hand, he could sign with a bottom tier team like Colorado. They would only give up a second-round pick and he'd hit the ball all over the place in Denver. I'm probably crazy, but I could totally see him putting up a four-digit OPS in that park.

And just like that, reports spill out (hopefully not generated by this post) that the Rockies are kicking the tires.

[Guest d'Kong76]

I heard that on Sat afternoon on FAN... Rockies may want him for 3B.

[ashie62]

Murphy is worth about 1/2 of his QO.

[Edgy MD]

And yet, the Mets offer it, and Murphy's representatives are likely advising him to reject it. So a lot of professional minds differ with you on that opinion.

[ashie62]

Edgy MD wrote: batmagadanleadoff wrote: If Murphy accepts the QO, the Mets payroll goes to about $110M, before a single free agent is signed. Good luck with that. Look for the Mets to salary dump Niese and his $9M no matter what happens. Well, you said that last year too. I'm guessing it's a moot point. Murphy likely won't accept it because nobody does.

Nobody?