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Posted


I do think Hamilton is a better bet than Cruz to perform at career-norm levels next season.


I don't know why you think so, but Hamilton's performance level NOW is still better than Cruz's average season (.260/25-30hr), but i'm not interested in either of them. They're 32 with drugs and injuries in their recent past. But that wasn't the point i was making anyway.

I don't have a problem with giving guys second chances. I'm against giving multi-year deals to guys for whom expecting performance to stay at recent levels is unrealistic, even if you take character completely out of the equation.


Again, i agree, but you're the one who brought character INTO the equation, which was my point. And Hamilton is as likely to be an example of this problem as Cruz, Peralta, Cabrera, Byrd or anybody else, as he's a junkie owed $104M over the next 4 years, from age 33-36. Even at half that price, i'd avoid him. and not for character reasons. Just as i'd avoid the Pujols contract, even with his solid reputation for character.

Peralta will probably perform at the .700 OPS level he played at in 2009 and 2010. Somebody is likely to pay him for more than that, and I hope it isn't us.


Or he might play like the .775-.805 OPS player he was for the 2 seasons before that (2007-08), or the .885 player he was in 2005, 2 years prior to THAT. No way to know, i guess, but, if you don't have to overpay to find out, I'd sure be interested (character issues aside, of course). Because if Tejada or even Drew are your best alternatives, then Peralta starts looking like a pretty good risk to take.


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Posted


I'm not sure that Peralta's days as a SS aren't dwindling.
I realize that now he's only being shifted off SS because the Tigers traded for the non-singing Iglesias during his suspension, but it wasn't like he was ever gold glove to start with and at 32 next spring he's not going to be getting any better.
So I wouldn't be against looking at him but strictly on a shorter term basis. Stephen Drew should be in that category as well.


Posted


Frayed Knot wrote:
I'm not sure that Peralta's days as a SS aren't dwindling.
I realize that now he's only being shifted off SS because the Tigers traded for the non-singing Iglesias during his suspension, but it wasn't like he was ever gold glove to start with and at 32 next spring he's not going to be getting any better.
So I wouldn't be against looking at him but strictly on a shorter term basis. Stephen Drew should be in that category as well.


i'm not really shilling for Peralta. I just don't want to rule him out until i know what the market is for him... and certainly not for character issues.


Posted


There was an ESPN piece the other day suggesting the Mets would build like the Red Sox..That would mean signing a gaggle of say 2-5 million dollar type guys..

There is not one available free agent I would pursue and offer big boy dollars.

My favorite pound for pound is Nate McClouth...he brings speed and a good bat to the table and should come reasonable...


Posted


FREE AGENTS AIN'T FREE - PART II

This thread, the Cano discussion, and other more general topics, got me to thinking about how often those long-term deals often commanded by the top free agents work out.
So I set some parameters and came up with a list of:
- current deals only
- minimum of five years in length
- position players only (may get around to pitchers later)

Some of the deals below (most of the ones for the younger players) are not true FA contracts as they were signed during, or in some cases before, the arbitration years.
Some players (** marked) have already been traded away by the signing team since the beginning of the contract.
The ages are as of July 1st 2014.
The per/year avg of the remaining years might vary slightly with incentive clauses and buy-outs, but are accurate as to the specific salary for the years 2014 and beyond.


PLAYERORIGINAL CONTRACTAGE 2014YEARS Rem.AVG $ / YR
JOEY VOTTO10 Years / $225301022.5
EVAN LONGORIA6 Years / $10028914.4
ALBERT PUJOLS10 Years / $24034826.5
BUSTER POSEY9 Years / $16727819.25
ELVIS ANDRUS8 Years / $12025815
DUSTIN PEDROIA8 Years / $11030813.75
PRINCE FIELDER9 Years / $21430724
RYAN BRAUN8 Years / $4530717.85
TROY TULOWITSKI10 Years / $157.7529716.57
DAVID WRIGHT8 Years / $13831715.875
MATT KEMP8 Years / $16029621.33
RYAN ZIMMERMAN6 Years / $10029614.67
STARLIN CASTRO7 Years / $602469.17
ANTHONY RIZZO7 Years / $412466.71
JOE MAUER8 Years / $18431523
ADRIAN GONZALEZ **7 Years / $15432521.2
HUNTER PENCE5 Years / $9031518
ADAM JONES6 Years / $88.528515
YADIER MOLINA5 Years / $7531514.8
JOSH HAMILTON5 Years / $12533424.5
ALEX RODRIGUEZ10 Years / $27538421.5
JAYSON WERTH7 Years / $12635420.75
CARL CRAWFORD **7 Years / $14232420.63
JOSE REYES **6 Years / $10631420.5
ANDRE ETHIER5 Years / $8532416.88
CARLOS GONZALEZ7 Years / $8028415.88
BJ UPTON5 Years / $75.2529415.7
MIGUEL MONTERO5 Years / $6030412.5
BRANDON PHILLIPS6 Years / $72.533411.75
IAN KINSLER5 Years / $7532411.25
ANDREW McCUTCHEN6 Years / $51.527411.06
RYAN HOWARD5 Years / $12534325
MARK TEIXEIRA8 Years / $18034322.5
MATT HOLLIDAY7 Years / $12034317
JOSE BAUTISTA5 Years / $6533314
JAY BRUCE6 Years / $5127312.5
MIGUEL CABRERA8 Years / $152.331222
ADRIAN BELTRE 5 Years / $8035217.5
NICK MARKAKIS 6 Years / $66.130216.25
JUSTIN UPTON **6 Years / $52.2526214.37
DAN UGGLA5 Years / $6234213
ALFONSO SORIANO **8 Years / $13638118
ALEX RIOS **7 Years / $69.83533112.5



I don't really have a specific point here except that while it's often easy to look at past deals and say, with perfect hindsight: "Well that one really sucked"; it can sometimes be more interesting to look at active deals and wonder how many teams would do them again, even with those that have barely started.


Random comments on some of the above:

VOTTO -- Terrific player, though power down a bit this season, has just turned 30 and the 10 years haven�t started yet.

LONGORIA -- Not a true FA deal, but six years were just tacked onto the original six year deal signed practically at his ML debut..

PUJOLS -- Looked too long/too heavy when it was signed, and looks a lot worse now. But, HEY, only 80% of it left to go.

POSEY -- Deal just starting. Age is good, position may cause a problem down the road.

ANDRUS -- Pre-FA deal, but with so-so performance and a better player on his teams' roster at his position, talk has it that Texas already wants out

PEDROIA -- Deal set to start next year.

FIELDER -- Coming off a somewhat down year, but so far has proven more durable than his bulk suggests and many fear.

BRAUN -- Well, the ON-field part has gone well

TULOWITSKI -- Only the injuries have been a problem so far

WRIGHT -- We�ll see, won�t we?

KEMP -- Immensely talented but erratic and injury prone.

ZIMMERMAN -- Hitting well but will need to move to 1B sooner rather than later

CASTRO --- Pre-FA deal, but a .284 OBA isn�t a good start

RIZZO -- Pre-FA deal, set to start next season

MAUER -- Injuries and position questions cloud the future.

PENCE -- Just signed.

ADAM JONES -- Pre-FA deal

MOLINA -- Deal starting just as the first injury-shortened year hits. Still, a near-MVP year.

HAMILTON -- Risky deal when it happened doesn�t look any better after Year 1

A. RODRIGUEZ -- Nuff said

WERTH -- Followed a down 1st year and injury shortened 2nd one with an MVP-quality 3rd. Maybe a long, lean, yoga-practicing athlete is just what you want as they get older. Down side is that he�ll be 35 next season

CRAWFORD -- Already dealt once, has yet to look as good since the signing as he did before.

REYES -- Worst thing about this deal is that it�s so back-loaded

ETHIER -- Currently injured and probably the odd man out in a crowded outfield. Team would almost certainly have to eat some money in order to deal him

C. GONZALEZ -- Pre-FA deal. Have to consider the Coors Factor if traded

BJ UPTON -- Horrid first season

HOWARD -- Looked too high/too long when it happened and now looks wose

TEIXEIRA -- BA starting to decline, but was still good prior to lost 2013

CABRERA -- Monster offensive numbers dwarf any conditioning questions ... so far

UGGLA -- Can�t be good when you get left off the playoff roster as the team�s highest paid player


Posted


IIRC, It used to be that when a player who had signed a long free agent was traded during that contract, he could become (his option) a free agent again the year following the trade.
Is that still true?

Later


Posted


He would have the right to demand a trade, and if his team didn't trade him, he'd have the right to opt for free agency. Players would often withdraw their demand if not traded (I recall Darryl Hamilton doing this with the Mets) because they don't want to risk that their next contract would be less lucrative. I don't know if that rule is still in effect, though.


Posted


There are a lot of crazy people in this world, but it's hard to see Reyes' believing he'd get more money, if that's who you're thinking of.


Posted


These are the guys I would take from that list, if i had to pay the balance of their contracts (at the average annual price) from this point forward.

First, i would eliminate any deal that has me paying big money [15+M] to guys into their late 30s (37+), unless i'm also getting their prime years (27-33);
and i eliminate any catcher over 30, or anybody with recent chronic drug or injury problems or already showing a steady decline,
unless their avg salary is under $15m and there's only 1-2 years left:

[u:1z0buvo1]YES:[/u:1z0buvo1]
ANTHONY RIZZO - Wow. Take this deal in a heartbeat.
ADAM JONES - YES!
ANDREW McCUTCHEN - Duh.
JAY BRUCE - yup.
MIGUEL CABRERA - the exception to every rule
JUSTIN UPTON - coming into his prime.
DAVID WRIGHT - too long, but we got his prime years, too, so i'm happy to keep the captain on board.

So that's 6 of the 43 deals (plus Wright, whose deal i would not otherwise take). Not a great percentage. Of the rest:

[u:1z0buvo1]MAYBE:[/u:1z0buvo1]
EVAN LONGORIA - too long, and injuries, but I would still get his prime years
BUSTER POSEY - ditto, and good enough bat to switch positions later and extend his career
ELVIS ANDRUS - young, right length, maybe a bit pricey. If you think he can play, take him. I'm not sure i do.
RYAN ZIMMERMAN - injuries may force him off 3B; i don't know that his bat plays well enough at 1B
STARLIN CASTRO - young, right length, right price. If you think he can play, take him. I'm pretty sure i don't, but not positive.
ADRIAN GONZALEZ - a little too old, too long and too much, plus injuries, but i've always liked him.
JOSE REYES - $20m/yr for 4 more years (even if you don't factor in the back-loaded contract)
to end up with a 35-year old speedster who is already declining in SBs is high risk investment... but it's Reyes.
CARLOS GONZALEZ - Only question is if he's a Coors Field mirage; he may be.
MIGUEL MONTERO - injuries, borderline age for a C; maybe.
BRANDON PHILLIPS &
IAN KINSLER - 2 middle-aged 2bmen with good bats and gloves; both still cheap enough to consider (Kinsler is a bit younger and a few $ cheaper).
NICK MARKAKIS - seems to be declining already, but for 2 years i'd take a shot at his price.
ALEX RIOS - Only 1 year left; maybe

So there is another 10-15 borderline deals to consider, leaving about half of the total deals as outright NOs
unless the other team ate huge parts of the contract and didn't want that much in return.
Not a very good ratio, as far as i can tell.


Posted


Vic Sage wrote:
These are the guys I would take from that list, if i had to pay the balance of their contracts (at the average annual price).

First, i would eliminate any deal that has me paying big money [15+M] to guys into their late 30s (37+), unless i'm also getting their prime years (27-33); and i eliminate any catcher over 30, or anybody with recent chronic drug or injury problems or already showing a steady decline, unless their avg salary is under $15m and there's only 1-2 years left:

YES:
ANTHONY RIZZO - Wow. Take this deal in a heartbeat.
ADAM JONES - YES!
ANDREW McCUTCHEN - Duh.
JAY BRUCE - yup.
MIGUEL CABRERA - the exception to every rule
JUSTIN UPTON - coming into his prime.
DAVID WRIGHT - too long, but we got his prime years, too, so i'm happy to keep the captain on board.


Not surprisingly--and part of the point of this little project-- almost all of your 'YES' votes are for players with pre-FA deals that wouldn't be available to other teams on the open market. Only Wright and Cabrera are exceptions and even those two never made the open market either although both had enough service time when those deals were reached that their club had to at least pay close to a market rate for them.

The high percentage of remaining 'NO' and 'MAYBE' votes point out the risk of long-term/high-bucks deals and should give pause to the various Cano-chasers out there.


Posted


Excellent point, which we can interpret as... tie up Murphy now? Even if you don't intend to keep him? Tie up Parnell?

Vic Sage wrote:
MIGUEL CABRERA - the exception to every rule.

Crappy fielder, carries extra weight, gravitating toward DH, apparent substance problems. Makes $22,000,000 a year and folks would fall over themselves to pay it, and probably would if he was 35.

That's a man who can hit.


Grand Central Contributor
Posted


Edgy MD wrote:
Excellent point, which we can interpret as... tie up Murphy now? Even if you don't intend to keep him? Tie up Parnell?

Vic Sage wrote:
MIGUEL CABRERA - the exception to every rule.

Crappy fielder, carries extra weight, gravitating toward DH, apparent substance problems. Makes $22,000,000 a year and folks would fall over themselves to pay it, and probably would if he was 35.

That's a man who can hit.


take him and toss the Mets on the pile for "DH Everywhere". *shrug* Hell, it's already in the rules so the NL could start up with the DH next year if they felt like it. I don't think people realize how easy it would be.


Posted


I'm sure not going to get on board for the DH just because I think it somehow gives me a better chance to get the Tigers to give me their MVP.


Posted


One way to look at this is to pretend that each of the players on that chart are [u:1wg65vo5]available right now[/u:1wg65vo5] via free-agency but that they [u:1wg65vo5]can only be signed for the years and dollars remaining[/u:1wg65vo5] (the two right-hand columns) on their current deal.
So if you want Tulowitski, for example, the only deal you can have him for is for $116mil over 7 years. Reyes would have to be inked $82mil/4yrs or you need to pass. And so on, as if all the GMs got together and got really drunk and put all their high-priced players on waivers.

I think it's safe to say that a bunch of the most prized FAs at the time of their deals (Pujols, ARod, Fielder, Hamilton) would NOT be the first ones picked up under this fictional scenario.


Posted


so i thought i'd take a look at hte players listed here and see what bbref's mot similar players thingy says about their expected level of production moving forward. maybe there's a hidden gem somewhere in the thickets. or maybe htey all suck. why not, right?

so what i'll put down is, for each player, the number of relevant comparable players, teh average number of years played, average number of games played (and games started for pitchers), and average WAR for the remainder of htese players careers.

this is kinda what i did way back in may in the choo thread, not that anybody really gave it much thought.

Jose Abreu, 1B: total wildcard.
Bronson Arroyo, SP: (9) 1 year, 27 games 21 games started, 0.1 WAR
Carlos Beltran, OF: (8) 3 years, 348 games, 1.8 WAR
Marlon Byrd, OF: (6) 1 year, 161 games, 1.0 WAR
John Buck, C: (8) 3 years, 352 games, 3.2 WAR
Chris Capuano, SP: (4) 3 years, 62 games 49 games started, 3.1 WAR
Joba Chamberlain, Yankees, RP: (7) 4 years, 176 games, 30 games started, 3.0 WAR
Shin-Soo Choo, OF: (9) 3 years, 354 games, 2.4 WAR
Nelson Cruz, OF: (5) 3 years, 265 games, 0.7 WAR
Stephen Drew, SS: (8) 5 years, 600 games, 4.9 WAR
Yunel Escobar, SS: (8) 4 years, 494 games, 5.6 WAR
Jason Frasor, RP: (6) 2 years, 127 games, 0 games started, 1.5 WAR
Curtis Granderson, OF: (8) 4 years 373 games, 5.0 WAR
LaTroy Hawkins, RP: (6) approximately 1 year, less than 1 WAR
J.P Howell, RP: (5) 4 years 201 games 0 games started 2.4 WAR
Josh Johnson, SP: (8) 4 years 125 games 51 games started 2.5 WAR

bonus money's no option pitchers:
1. Matt Garza (8) 4 years 122 games 97 games started 4.7 WAR
2. Ricky Nolasco (7) 4 years 113 games 93 games started 5.5 WAR
3. Ubaldo Jimenez (7) 5 years 134 games 91 games started 5.8 WAR
4. Hiroki Kuroda (7) 1 year 39 games 17 games started 0.8 WAR but comparables aren't really valid.
5. Tim Lincecum (7) 5 years 151 games 145 games started 16.5 WAR (a pair of HOF comps helps)

Boone Logan, Yankees RP: (3) 3 years 116 games 0 games started 0 WAR
Nate McLouth, OF: (7) 3 years 390 games 3.8 WAR
David Murphy, OF: (6) 3 years 232 games -0.1 WAR
Jhonny Peralta, SS: (7) 4 years 543 games 6.8 WAR

others:
Phil Hughes (4) 4 years 97 games 82 games started 3.1 WAR
Tim Stauffer (10) 3 years 113 games 26 games started 2.8 WAR
Mike Morse (6) 4 years 415 games 3.3 WAR
Nick Punto (6) 4 years 269 games 2.2 WAR

so what does this tell us? well, the most important takeaway is that most players out there aren't really going to give you more than 3 WAR over hte next 3-4 years, and some much less. so spend and plan accordingly.

peralta's 6.8 projected WAR translates to about $34M current year dollars. yunel escobar comes in at $28M and granderson at $25M.

oh, and tim lincecum projects to $80M of value over the remainder of his career, though there's a really big standard deviation on that one.

unexpectedly, nate mclouth projects out to more value over hte next three years than choo or beltran, giving back 3.8 WAR, or $19M in value. could probably get him for less than that, making him a not altogether unreasonable target. presuming of course you allow this methodology to hold any sway in your thought processes.

OE:

i left off jacoby ellsbury: (7) 6 years 716 games, 9.0 WAR. he'll command more than the projected $46M value he'll return.

and for bonus material: hunter pence, recently re-upped for big bucks. (9) 7 years 801 games 9.3 WAR.

double bonus material: robinson cano: (8) 5 years, 679 games, 13.5 WAR.

triple bonus material: david wright, (6) 9 years, 1168 games, 27 WAR.

for what its worth...


  • 1 month later...
Posted



PLAYERORIGINAL CONTRACTAGE 2014YEARS Rem.AVG $ / YR
JOE MAUER8 Years / $18431523



MAUER -- Injuries and position questions cloud the future.


And now comes word that Mauer will transition to full-time 1st baseman starting next season - which basically makes him Todd Helton with a lot less power and a tougher home park.
He never played again after taking a foul ball off the top of his catcher helmet during a Mets game in August.


Posted


Frayed Knot wrote:
He never played again after taking a foul ball off the top of his catcher helmet during a Mets game in August.


"2013 Mets: We might not have won many games, but we sure did beat the hell out of the opposition."


Posted


seawolf17 wrote:
He never played again after taking a foul ball off the top of his catcher helmet during a Mets game in August.


"2013 Mets: We might not have won many games, but we sure did beat the hell out of the opposition."


Mauer, Hudson, Heyward, ...


Posted


Saw on Yahoo sports that Pedroia had hand surgery. That might slow some teams down in their pursuit of him (or lower their offers).

Later


Guest LeiterWagnerFasterStrongr
Guests
Posted


Yes, but then you see things like this, and yes, it's a negotiation, but... yeesh.

Tweetster Olney wrote:
Jhonny Peralta's reps said to be looking for big-time money, far more than 3/45m.


Posted


Looks like another winter of shopping in the clearance aisle, hoping one or two has a Marlon Byrd-type breakout.

Next year is about getting the kids their reps and figuring out how to structure the team in 2015. I'd be shocked if they did something major because the minute Harvey went under the knife plans should have changed.


Grand Central Contributor
Posted


Lefty Specialist wrote:
Looks like another winter of shopping in the clearance aisle, hoping one or two has a Marlon Byrd-type breakout.

Next year is about getting the kids their reps and figuring out how to structure the team in 2015. I'd be shocked if they did something major because the minute Harvey went under the knife plans should have changed.


and when Wheeler has Tommy JOhn next offseason we'll wait until 2016.

Really, unless everything goes perfectly, keep pushing the goal posts.


Posted


They're going to do something. Maybe not enough for many. And maybe it's impossible to do enough for some. But they're going to do something. And nobody's going to be shocked.


  • 2 months later...
Posted (edited)


Finishing up the winter signing season--although additions may still come as seen by yesterday's long-term deal for Freddie Freeman--by adding the new Five-Year-Plus deals to the existing (hitter only) ones below. The Freeman deal, which is obviously not a true FA deal but a buy-out of arb years plus his first few potential FA seasons, was the longest and costliest in Braves history.
Also on the original list we can add Prince Fielder and Ian Kinsler (dealt for each other) to those who were traded away (**) by the team that signed them before that deal had the chance to run out.


PLAYERCONTRACTAGE 2014YEARS RemAvg $ / Yr
Brain McCann5 Years / $85305$17
Robinson Cano10 Years / $2403110$24
Jacoby Ellsbury7 Years / $153307$21.86
Shin-Soo Choo7 Years / $130317$18.57
Freddie Freeman8 Years248$16.875
JOSE ABREU6 Years / $696$11.33


PLAYERORIGINAL CONTRACTAGE 2014YEARS Rem.AVG $ / YR
JOEY VOTTO10 Years / $225301022.5
EVAN LONGORIA6 Years / $10028914.4
ALBERT PUJOLS10 Years / $24034826.5
BUSTER POSEY9 Years / $16727819.25
ELVIS ANDRUS8 Years / $12025815
DUSTIN PEDROIA8 Years / $11030813.75
PRINCE FIELDER **9 Years / $21430724
RYAN BRAUN8 Years / $4530717.85
TROY TULOWITSKI10 Years / $157.7529716.57
DAVID WRIGHT8 Years / $13831715.875
MATT KEMP8 Years / $16029621.33
RYAN ZIMMERMAN6 Years / $10029614.67
STARLIN CASTRO7 Years / $602469.17
ANTHONY RIZZO7 Years / $412466.71
JOE MAUER8 Years / $18431523
ADRIAN GONZALEZ **7 Years / $15432521.2
HUNTER PENCE5 Years / $9031518
ADAM JONES6 Years / $88.528515
YADIER MOLINA5 Years / $7531514.8
JOSH HAMILTON5 Years / $12533424.5
ALEX RODRIGUEZ10 Years / $27538421.5
JAYSON WERTH7 Years / $12635420.75
CARL CRAWFORD **7 Years / $14232420.63
JOSE REYES **6 Years / $10631420.5
ANDRE ETHIER5 Years / $8532416.88
CARLOS GONZALEZ7 Years / $8028415.88
BJ UPTON5 Years / $75.2529415.7
MIGUEL MONTERO5 Years / $6030412.5
BRANDON PHILLIPS6 Years / $72.533411.75
IAN KINSLER **5 Years / $7532411.25
ANDREW McCUTCHEN6 Years / $51.527411.06
RYAN HOWARD5 Years / $12534325
MARK TEIXEIRA8 Years / $18034322.5
MATT HOLLIDAY7 Years / $12034317
JOSE BAUTISTA5 Years / $6533314
JAY BRUCE6 Years / $5127312.5
MIGUEL CABRERA8 Years / $152.331222
ADRIAN BELTRE5 Years / $8035217.5
NICK MARKAKIS 6 Years / $66.130216.25
JUSTIN UPTON **6 Years / $52.2526214.37
DAN UGGLA5 Years / $6234213
ALFONSO SORIANO **8 Years / $13638118
ALEX RIOS **7 Years / $69.83533112.5


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