Harvelous Gets MRI

[Edgy MD]

Ceetar wrote: wait for next year next year isn't a 'hidden bonus'

Agreed highly.

Benjamin Grimm wrote: This whole thing sucks, but it's no reason to write off 2014 yet.

Reading this thread, I see some believed 2014 was hopeless before Harvey ever felt a twinge.

[batmagadanleadoff]

Let's Calm Down About Matt Harvey's Elbow
By Jonah Keri on August 27, 2013 10:30 AM ET

Matt Harvey is headed to the disabled list with a partially torn ulnar collateral ligament in his right elbow, wiping out the rest of this season, throwing next season into doubt, and likely derailing the Mets' near-term hopes for contention. The injury derailed Harvey's first full season in the big leagues, one that established him as one of the best pitchers in the game. If resting the elbow doesn't cut it, Harvey would face the prospect of Tommy John surgery, which might keep him off a major league mound until 2015. Given how good Harvey had become so quickly, how rough the past few years have been for the Mets, and what Harvey's well-being means for one of the most downtrodden teams in baseball, it's tough to see this as anything other than a crushing blow for everyone involved. Except it doesn't have to be that way. This isn't going to be another bury-the-Mets opus in which we catalog everything from Bernie Madoff to Jason Bay to the sad end of Johan Santana's career. This is a story of optimism, silver linings, and the miracles of medical science, about how sometimes shit happens, then everyone gets over it. Contrary to some (misguided) Internet ramblings, the Mets didn't do anything wrong here. When something this dramatic happens, the natural impulse is to find a scapegoat. One Twitter naysayer wondered why the Mets would let Harvey throw 110 or more pitches in one-third of his starts this year, given the Mets have been out of the playoff race since, well, Opening Day, more or less. There were less-specific complaints (that I'm not going to link to) about the Mets being at fault � somehow. If you dig deep enough, you can find a few warning signs. GM Sandy Alderson noted that Harvey had felt forearm pain "for some time now." As ESPN Stats & Info notes, Harvey threw the hardest fastball, the hardest slider, and the hardest curveball of any qualified starting pitcher this year; the velocity on all three of those pitches had fallen in August, according to the excellent pitcher analysis site Brooks Baseball. Also per Brooks, Harvey's vertical release point dipped this month. A sore forearm, diminished velocity, and lower release points can be red flags when it comes to potential injuries. But if every pitcher shut it down every time he felt a twinge, lost a tick off his fastball, or dropped his arm by an inch or two, professional baseball would cease to exist. Harvey had posted a 2.97 ERA with a 27-to-2 strikeout-to-walk rate over five starts in August. Nine out of 26 starts with 110-plus pitches thrown is hardly excessive for a pitcher who'd thrown well enough to post double-digit complete games this season if the Mets had let him. With a cap of roughly 200 to 205 innings this year (210-215 at the absolute most), the Mets planned to shut Harvey down after four or five more starts anyway. There's a balance to be struck between responsibly managing a young pitcher's workload and letting him develop stamina, work deep into games, and figure out how to get out of jams. The Mets did fine on that front. But no matter how judicious a team might be, no matter how much of a physical specimen he might be, shit just happens. Mark Mulder ? @markmulder20 Everyone thinks good mechanics prevent arm injury. Doesn't matter people. Either you get lucky or you don't. 4:04 PM - 26 Aug 2013 150 Retweets 51 favorites Harvey might be best off getting the surgery over with sooner rather than later. We're not going to go too far in playing doctor here. Every pitcher is different, and we don't know how "partially" torn Harvey's UCL is. Still, just about any pitcher you can think of who had this injury has required Tommy John surgery at some point. Most pitchers, like the Dodgers' Chad Billingsley, won't make it more than a few months before being forced to go under the knife. Someone like Adam Wainwright, who pitched more than five years with a partial tear, is an extremely rare exception. Given that Harvey is just 24 years old, with multiple potential big years and massive potential earning power ahead of him, it makes lots of sense to get the procedure done in the near future. Again, ask those who've either seen many teammates and rivals suffer the same injury and go in for Tommy John �

http://www.grantland.com/blog/the-triangle/post/_/id/72614/lets-calm-down-about-matt-harveys-elbow

[batmagadanleadoff]

Benjamin Grimm wrote: This whole thing sucks, but it's no reason to write off 2014 yet. Reading this thread, I see some believed 2014 was hopeless before Harvey ever felt a twinge.

I thought it was outrageously presumptuous for so many to assume that a team this bad would contend in just the next season. Not that it can't happen. But hoping and expecting are two different beasts.

[Edgy MD]

1985 was, by any measure, marvelous. They won 98 smashing games which is probably enough to get you a division more than half the time, and if not for one of any number of simplish breaks --- Strawberry's thumb, Sisk's bone chips, Davy Johnson vetoing Frank Cashen's deal to bring Seaver back, Chapman slumping so precipitously from the previous season it was almost comic, incredibly boneheaded plays from Larry Bowa who you thought you could at least count on to keep his head in the game --- would have gone over the top.

You have a chance for a 1985, you don't ask to be dealt out. You take it and hope that you can be smart enough to stay one step ahead of that one break. It was just a great summer of baseball wire to wire and if you wanted to give me those same cards to play with, I'd sign up every time.

[batmagadanleadoff]

1985 was a Mets season for the ages. But are you comparing 1985 to 2014?

[metirish]

Edgy MD wrote: 1985 was, by any measure, marvelous.

It wasn't Harvelous?

[batmagadanleadoff]

Baseball Prospectus on "the injury". Lotsa graphs and charts.



Overthinking It
A Search for Matt Harvey Injury Indicators

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=21642

[Edgy MD]

batmagadanleadoff wrote: 1985 was a Mets season for the ages. But are you comparing 1985 to 2014?

Responding to this'n'.

Centerfield wrote: Next year was going to be, at best, 1985.

[Benjamin Grimm]

I'd sign up for another 1985 right now.

As for me, I'm hoping the Mets can contend. I never assumed it, but I do think there's a chance, with or without Harvey. (Obviously, more of a chance with.)

[Ceetar]

Edgy MD wrote: batmagadanleadoff wrote: 1985 was a Mets season for the ages. But are you comparing 1985 to 2014? Responding to this'n'. Centerfield wrote: Next year was going to be, at best, 1985.

this has been bothering me all year. The only comparison to '85 (yes, I was three, that's irrelevant) is a narrative. And that's fine, those stories and narratives are fine, but there is no relationship in terms of progression.

The Mets aren't "this bad". They've been playing roughly .500 ball since like June. So it's not like they need a last-to-first conversion. They need to make a bunch of moves, surely, but if those moves end up working out they'll certainly be competitive. Sure, I don't want them going all willy-nilly buy everyone like Bowden seems to suggest they were going to be tempted to do, but honestly any realistic projections and plans for 2014 should've included at least one pitcher ending up injured, if not more.

[Centerfield]

Edgy MD wrote: 1985 was, by any measure, marvelous. They won 98 smashing games which is probably enough to get you a division more than half the time, and if not for one of any number of simplish breaks --- Strawberry's thumb, Sisk's bone chips, Davy Johnson vetoing Frank Cashen's deal to bring Seaver back, Chapman slumping so precipitously from the previous season it was almost comic, incredibly boneheaded plays from Larry Bowa who you thought you could at least count on to keep his head in the game --- would have gone over the top. You have a chance for a 1985, you don't ask to be dealt out. You take it and hope that you can be smart enough to stay one step ahead of that one break. It was just a great summer of baseball wire to wire and if you wanted to give me those same cards to play with, I'd sign up every time.

It�s funny. Reading through the responses in this thread, I think I�m simultaneously being accused of being too optimistic and too pessimistic. I�ll try to clarify.

Edgy, I think you're addressing the above post to me. I would never ask to be dealt out. 1985 was a great year. It was a big step forward in developing a championship team. But it was ultimately, a year where they needed some breaks, didn't get them, and fell short. My point was that next year, 2014, was going to be 1985 at best. (Some think it was a far cry to even think it would be that good, but opinions will vary.)

Now that Harvey is injured, that changes the game. Assuming you thought that 2014 could be 1985 (which I was hoping for), we�ve just lost Gooden from the �85 squad. How much does that change the �85 season? A lot I say. Do you give up on that season? No. But you go in with the understanding that you need a hell of a lot of breaks to make up losing your top pitcher.

My point is that we may have lost Gooden from the �85 squad, but we can still have him at full strength for �86, which is what I�m hoping 2015 will be. So, in the grand scheme of things, 2014 may not be as fun as we had hoped, but hopefully our plan toward building a championship team can still come to fruition.

So in summary, I don�t think it was far-fetched to think next year could be a 1985 type year prior to Harvey getting hurt. Maybe not 98 wins, but progressing to a team that is a legitimate championship contender and one that is on the verge of getting even better. Now that Harvey is hurt, I think we have to be realistic about our chances next year. We certainly don�t punt on the season, but losing Harvey is a terrible blow for next year. Still, I think we have reason to be optimistic, because we can have him ready for 2015, when this team will light the world on fire.

[batmagadanleadoff]

Now I'm even more confused. The '85 Mets were goodenough to win the WS. There are WS champs who weren't as good as that team. Terry Collins' Mets aren't even in the same galaxy as the mid-80's Mets. Not even with two healthy Matt Harveys.

[Edgy MD]

I think there was no difference between 1985 and 1986. One year they didn't get the breaks (I left Berenyi out of the bad breaks from 1985); the next they did (Berenyi was reduced to a fall-back plan that they didn't need to launch). The only significant injury to any of the players in 1986 happened in spring training to Mookie Wilson's eye. He was ready by the start of May and it was smooth sailing in the trainer's room after that.

That's the main difference between successful teams and champions. Breaks. There were no significant injuries in 1969 either. Seaver had a brief dead-arm period and then was unstoppable down the stretch.

We'll see what next year holds, but I think the notion that Harvey's injury is a blessing in disguise, because it prevents Alderson from going crazy in the offseason market, is weak and fuels the outdated notion of the Mets as bumbling pretenders that need circumstances to restrain their own appetites*. Alderson has been nothing if not deliberate, and has made clear at every turn that over-leveraging the future for the present is what sunk the team and not doing that is how he intends to save it (while insisting that this doesn't mean the present is lost).

Let's remember that Bowden was driven out of baseball in disgrace, in a mess of a seamy FBI investigation into a culture of exploitation that Alderson (hopefully) helped clean up.

If there are moves are perceived to be healthy for the organization --- long-term or short --- those are the ones I expect Alderson to make (if not necessarily succeed at). He's got to be deliberate because his first job is getting the organization above water, but my understanding is that he understands that it's short-sighted to reduce all strategies for building a successful franchise to "win now" or "win later."

The Mets had a job to do this offseason. And now they've got a bigger and more complex job to do. Cassandra Complex Commentators who think they're the only ones who see the big picture are a dime a dozen.

*This is somehow maintained simultaneously with the "all this winning is terrible" notion that the Mets are flaccid self-congratulating fools who think are deluded in times of success into standing pat and not seeing the flaws in the team that the success is masking.

[Centerfield]

I guess we'll have to agree to disagree. I think there was a big difference between '86 and '85. The 1985 team was a legitimate contender. There are many teams like this in a given year.

The 1986 team was the favorite to win it all. There is only ever one favorite in a given year, and in most years, there is no clear cut favorite. Some win it all (like the '86 Mets). Some fall short (2001 Mariners) in the post-season. But they shred the competition during the regular season. The '86 team had it's share of bad luck. (Gooden came down to Earth, Foster flamed out) Juggernauts like that steamroll through anyway undaunted.

I was hoping to have a contender in 2014, a favorite in 2015.

I agree with you that the Mets don't need a watchdog or they spend foolishly. I can't see Alderson doing that. But I agree with his point that the Harvey injury doesn't derail the Mets plans to build a perennial winner.

[metirish]

?@MattHarvey33
Thank you everyone for the kind words and support. I may be done this year, but I will be back next year for April 1.

[Benjamin Grimm]

We'll see about that.

[ashie62]

Benjamin Grimm wrote: This whole thing sucks, but it's no reason to write off 2014 yet.

Couldn't they go out and buy an LF sluggerguy and with the decent pitching they still have go into 2014 on the upside?

[Guest LeiterWagnerFasterStrongr]

What I don't get is how so many-- so MANY-- people, news organizations, and Met-retweet-bots didn't catch the date on this tweet, and his meaning.

Matt Harvey, presumably with a gigantic cheek-bulge, wrote: Thank you everyone for the kind words and support. I may be done this year, but I will be back next year for April 1.

[Benjamin Grimm]

I noticed that date. I think he's thinking that he's going to get away with not needing surgery, perhaps like Jon Niese did this season.

I'd be a lot more confident about that April 1 date if it came from a doctor instead of from a ballplayer.

[Benjamin Grimm]

Some possibly encouraging news from Roy Halladay, who chatted with Harvey yesterday. (Terry Collins set up the meeting.) Halladay says he had a similar injury in the 2006 season when he was with Toronto. He shut it down for September of that year, did some strengthening exercises and stuff like that, and was ready to go in April of 2007. Hasn't had any elbow problems since.

Harvey has to wait until the swelling goes down, and then they can evaluate whether he can take the approach that Halladay did.

Jeremy Hefner, meanwhile, had his Tommy John surgery yesterday. Recovery time is 14 or 15 months. Which indicates to me that Harvey can wait and see for another couple of months. If he ultimately has the Tommy John, he'll miss 2014 and be ready for 2015 whether he has the surgery in August or waits until possibly as late as January.

[seawolf17]

If "Roy Halladay" is a best case scenario, and "Adam Wainwright" is a worst-case scenario (he tries rehab but winds up needing the surgery anyway), then I'm okay with it.

[Frayed Knot]

Gary ran down a list the other night of guys who have had partial tears and opted NOT to go the surgical route. Some eventually needed it down the road but others didn't.
Bottom line (in the case of elbows or just about anything else) is that if you can avoid surgery you probably should avoid surgery. No matter how "routine" TJ operations have become in recent years it's still a very invasive procedure [transplanted tendons, drilled holes in bones, re-routed tissue, etc.] that requires a ton of rehab, a lot of time, runs the risk of infection, and even today doesn't always return the pitcher to where he was prior to the injury.

[Centerfield]

But these tears don't heal right?

I feel like not getting the surgery would be a time bomb ticking away. But I don't have an MD so what do I know.

If given the choice, I'd much rather have him miss 2014 than 2015.

[Ceetar]

Both Niese and Gee are pitching with partial tears. Not the same ones as Harvey, but they're pitching with them.

Of course, they're on anti-inflammatory medication. This allows them to get back on the field and avoid surgery and pitch. But it's okay, because they're not on "the list".

[Edgy MD]

Atchy, too. Get Wheeler and our rotation next year can be four partial tears and one complete rebuild in the case of Mejia. How did we get through 100 years of baseball before Tommy John ever went under the knife? I've got to assume all the Ed Walshes who won a bunch of games but were near useless after 30 were living with undiagnosed UCL ruptures.

I have my opinion, but what do I know? The folks who decide may make the wrong decision, but they'll do it with a hell of a lot more information and experience than I've got.

[Frayed Knot]

"But these tears don't heal right?" -- Correct. Unlike muscles, ligaments don't 're-grow' and heal themselves.

"I feel like not getting the surgery would be a time bomb ticking away." -- Maybe. But every pitcher beyond HS has some tears somewhere. The question, yet to be determined, is how bad this one is. Is a future full tear inevitable or just possible?

"But I don't have an MD so what do I know." -- I watched 'HOUSE' so I'm qualified to speak on all medical situations.

"If given the choice, I'd much rather have him miss 2014 than 2015." -- If only the question were that simple.

[Edgy MD]

Amos Rusie --- there's a guy with an undiagnosed torn url.

[G-Fafif]

Heyman says Harvey to rehab elbow, eschew TJ surgery for now.

Mets star right-hander Matt Harvey is expected to try to avoid Tommy John elbow surgery after seeing noted sports doctor James Andrews on Monday. The diagnosis apparently was positive enough that Harvey is expected to try rehab for now, then begin a throwing program in 1-2 months. Surgery remains a possibility, depending on how the rehab and throwing go. Harvey was diagnosed by Mets doctors as having a partial tear of his right ulnar collateral ligament a few weeks ago. That does not appear to be in dispute, but while such a tear usually requires surgery, some pitchers have been able to pitch through such an injury. No details of Andrews' examination are known. The Mets announced Monday that they were planning to make an announcement Tuesday regarding Harvey's prognosis and protocol. Mets co-owner Jeff Wilpon and Harvey's agent, Scott Boras, declined comment. The very common Tommy John surgery is believed to be up to 90 percent effective with ligament tears in the elbow, but since the procedure isn't quite 100 percent and would surely cost him the 2014 season, Harvey has been said to be hoping to avoid surgery. He has also heard from Phillies star Roy Halladay shortly after his diagnosis, who was a rare pitcher to avoid the surgery after a similar diagnosis. Even if Harvey eventually needs surgery, he still would have time to try rehabbing the injury and be ready for the 2015 season, which is another consideration. Harvey had a 2.27 ERA in 178 1/3 innings for the Mets in 2013 and was a Cy Young candidate before he was sidelined.

[Guest John Cougar Lunchbucket]

Centerfield wrote: But these tears don't heal right? I feel like not getting the surgery would be a time bomb ticking away. But I don't have an MD so what do I know. If given the choice, I'd much rather have him miss 2014 than 2015.

I figured as a lawyer you'd be familiar with "unnecessary surgery" aka "elective surgery."

Almost all treatments are options, and probably, every one of us is living with imperfections in our ligaments and tendons and cartliage, they become problematic when they tear too much or get irritated for whatever reason.

And, hey I'll say it. Fuck 2015. Let's not tie all the organization progress to a single guy, especially a total crapshoot like a single young douchey attention-starved pitcher like Harvey.

[G-Fafif]

An unsourced update about Matt Harvey deciding not to do something is more interesting than the entire four-game series against the Nationals last week.