Tell Me Where It Hurts, Baby

[Edgy MD]

Just trying to isolate the central location of our woes here.

NL Catchers: .240 / .306 /.383 // .689
Mets Catchers: .216 / .278 / .417 // .695
League Rank: 6/15

NL Firstbasemen: .264 / .333 / .428 // .761
Mets Firstbasemen: .170 / .248 / .261 // .509
League Rank: 14/15 Pop quiz: Who is getting less from their first basemen?

NL Secondbasemen: .260 / .326 /.394// .720
Mets Secondbasemen: .300 / .336 / .465 // .801
League Rank: 2/15

NL Thirdbasemen: .255 / .323 / .393 // .715
Mets Thirdbasemen: .286 / .380 / .473 // .853
League Rank: 1/15

NL Shortstops: .261 / .314 / .394 // .708
Mets Shortstops: .225 / .278 / .299 // .577
League Rank: 13/15

NL Leftfielders: .265/ .335 / .445 // .780
Mets Leftfielders: .238 / .344 / .467 // .811
League Rank: 4/15

NL Centerfielders: .258 / .324 /.399 // .723
Mets Centerfielders: .197 / .238 / .332 // .570
League Rank: 15/15

NL Rightfielders: .266 / .330 /.428 // .759
Mets Rightfielders: .215 / .294 / .365 // .666095
League Rank: 14/15


(Totally not the problem.)

[Fman99]

Wow, half our hitters in the bottom 3 across the league, on average. That sucks.

[Benjamin Grimm]

NL Leftfielders: .265/ .335 / .445 // .780 Mets Leftfielders: .238 / .344 / .467 // .811 League Rank: 4/15

I have to say, this surprises me. It surprises me that the Mets rank fourth in left field, and that those poor numbers are good enough to rank fourth.

I still don't think Duda is part of the solution (although I know that he can end up proving me wrong) but I'll concede that the Mets can possibly be contenders if they make him the third best starting outfielder on the team. In other words, he's far from the biggest part of the problem.

[smg58]

I wouldn't call an .811 OPS poor. Not difference-making, especially when defense is factored in, but not poor.

Ruben was walking more and striking out less relative to previous seasons, and not doing much worse where extra base hits were concerned. Basically he's been hitting less singles. I think he's been unlucky to this point with the bat, and I wouldn't demote him when he comes off the DL. His lapses on the defensive end are a bigger concern.

Center has been a black hole, but is anybody really surprised by that? You might as well platoon Niewenhuis and Lagares and at least take the defense.

The fact that Byrd has a .781 OPS makes you shudder at what the rest of our rightfielders have been doing. While I doubt he can keep this up, we don't have a better option right now.

[Edgy MD]

I don't think those numbers are particularly poor either. The batting average may disquiet one's nights but it's him doing what he can with what he's given. Drop Lucas Duda 2013 into a good lineup and he's looking a lot scarier.

[Frayed Knot]

smg58 wrote: Ruben was walking more and striking out less relative to previous seasons, and not doing much worse where extra base hits were concerned. Basically he's been hitting less singles. I think he's been unlucky to this point with the bat, and I wouldn't demote him when he comes off the DL. His lapses on the defensive end are a bigger concern.

Unfortunately, Ruben's sad descent into pop-up-aholism keeps him far away from the 'unlucky' category as far as his hitting goes. Maybe there was some ill fate back in April but, since about May 1 or so, one can tell the second the ball comes off the bat in most cases that there's no chance of that swat becoming a hit.

[duan]

by the way, without looking at anything I'm going in that pop quiz of yours with ... MIAMI MARLINS

[Edgy MD]

Not Miami. Good guess, though. Miami is one notch ahead of the Mets, OPSing at a pitcherly .531 at the first base position.

The bulk of their plate appearances (170) have gone to Greg Dobbs who has rewarded them with a .576 OPS. Backup Joe Mahoney is more respectable at .667 in 27 PAs, but other backups have been invisible with NIck Green posting a blind man's .388 in 19 trips to the dish and Casey Kotchman a dead man's .048 in 21 appearances. Kotchman hasn't even hit against the Mets.

Rank	Team	OPS
1		.951
2		.950
3		.863
4		.860
5		.803
6		.801
7		.801
8		.791
9		.765
10		.743
11		.735
12		.711
13	MIA	.531
14	NYM	.509
15		.501

[Ceetar]

Philly? I can think of a lot of bad AL first baseman too.

[Edgy MD]

Phllly is rocking it at 10th, with a defensible .743 1BOPS. Ryan Howard is searching for himself at .251 / .295 / .435 // .730, and facing LOOGys in the seventh inning day after day. But backup Kevin Frandsen has cranked it in 20 plate appearances, at .294 / .400 / .588 // .988. Not bad at all for a bench player who also plays second and third.

Rank	Team	OPS
1		.951
2		.950
3		.863
4		.860
5		.803
6		.801
7		.801
8		.791
9		.765
10	PHI	.743
11		.735
12		.711
13	MIA	.531
14	NYM	.509
15		.501

[Frayed Knot]

Dodgers

[Edgy MD]

LA may stink, but they've ranked a Dudariffic fourth in offensitude from Station One. Sunset has come to the James Loney era and the return of Adrian Gonzalez to Southern Cal has brought with him a rather Gonzalez-lik .311 / .372 / .481 // .853 slash line. Only 26 plate appearances have gone to anybody else, but they've been hitting too.

Rank	Team	OPS
1		.951
2		.950
3		.863
4	LAD	.860
5		.803
6		.801
7		.801
8		.791
9		.765
10	PHI	.743
11		.735
12		.711
13	MIA	.531
14	NYM	.509
15		.501

[Guest John Cougar Lunchbucket]

Warshington

[Centerfield]

This is a great thread. And it really sums up our problems. It is really hard to win when half your lineup is comprised of the worst players in the league. And one of those guys was supposed to be the cleanup hitter. Wow.

Of the "good" guys, only Buck has really played above his head, so hopefully with D'Arnaud on the horizon, we can keep that production going in the future. The other three are about where you'd expect. (Good for Duda!)

Of the "bad" guys, I guess we could get a major upgrade if Ike finds himself, and if he doesn't just by the mere fact that he won't be here anymore will help a little. As to the other three, it is depressing that the Mets have no real candidates at all.

Valdespin and Wilmer Flores are really the only guys that have a chance to make an impact, and it seems like neither one plays a position that fills any of our needs (which is amazing since half the positions are up for grabs). I've said it before. Run Jordany out at SS and see what he does. There really is no reason not to try this. Omar Quintanilla is not part of the future.

[Centerfield]

And when you look at this, it's hard to fathom how Alderson gets a free pass. Sure, there has been no money to play with, but the whole Oakland philosophy is that you can rebuild without money. It's been three years. That's enough time to make a difference. Especially in the minor leagues. So far, here's what's happened:

1. The big league team has gotten worse every year.
2. The big league team has gotten worse because he has either let star players walk for nothing, or traded star players he inherited for prospects. (In my mind, these are no-brain moves. It is the equivalent of a GM signing a big time free agent. No creativity involved.)
3. Other than the prospects he traded all-stars for, the minor leagues have not produced, and are no where near producing, an impact player (Harvey doesn't count, he inherited Harvey).
4. His philosophy, as best I can tell, is to run Minaya era prospects out there and hope for the best.

To be fair, other than the Reyes situation, I don't think Sandy has made any mistakes. But he hasn't done anything great either.

[Edgy MD]

Alderson hasn't gotten a free pass. But as has been noted in another thread, he's in his role as a turnaround specialist. He was brought in to blow the team up, many advocated for the team to be blown up, circumstances demanded that it get blown up, and this is what blown up too often looks like.

It hasn't been three years, so much as 2.36. Minor league systems don't tend to produce impact players in that time. Even Wright cooked longer. Reyes spent almost exactly that long on the farm, but he wasn't an impact player for a few years after that.

One reason not to try Valdespin at short is that he has been a disaster as a minor league shortstop. That's not a definitive reason, but it's a reason.

You can also run him out at second and move Murphy to first, which is probably at least part of what they're planning to do.

* * *

Washington has indeed had a fallback season from LaRoche, last year's Silver Slugger at the spot, if I am not misremembering. But a fallback is merely a fallback, and not necessarily a train wreck. DC rides near the middle of the pack on Engine Number Nine. LaCucaracha has gone .253 / .336 / .455 // .791. While only 22 PAs have gone to any other Nats at first, Tyler Moore has turned the world on by going 3-9 with two doubles.

Rank	Team	OPS
1		.951
2		.950
3		.863
4	LAD	.860
5		.803
6		.801
7		.801
8		.791
9	WSN	.765
10	PHI	.743
11		.735
12		.711
13	MIA	.531
14	NYM	.509
15		.501

[Ceetar]

It's funny how people interpret things. I'm reading the Sandy interview transcript from yesterday now, and it feels very 'do or die' for Valdespin, not "Let's see what he can do" but "Let's see if there is anything he can do"

I think Terry will have three options. I think the first is moving [Daniel] Murphy to first base, temporarily, and putting [Jordany] Valdespin at second and take a look at Valdespin and see if he can improve on his numbers with some more regular play.

Basically if Murph moves to first it gives us a chance to look at Valdespin at second. That may last awhile, it may not.

On Flores not being promoted.

But I think we felt at this point that if we�re going to get anything out of Valdespin, we need to take a look at him now. That�s not to say that that will be a long look, but we wanted to look at that option first.

[Guest LeiterWagnerFasterStrongr]

The Astros blew it up. The Marlins-- somewhat misguidedly, but spectacularly-- blew it up. I think that part of the problem is that Alderson hasn't blown it up-- outside of Beltran, he's just sort of let it fall apart, occasionally prying some of the looser boards off (Bay, e.g.) by hand. It's tough to rebuild fully when you can't clear the site.

And as to the quiz? I'm thinking... Fighting Heltons.

[Guest John Cougar Lunchbucket]

I don't buy that. He's screwed like we all are by guys who were to be part of the solution becoming part of the problem. Maybe he could have forseen that? I dunno. Obviously trading Ike woulda been a good idea. But it's not as though anyone from the old days but Santana and Bay are clogging us and Omar assured they'd be the kinda guys you couldn't collect on anyhow.

[Fman99]

Milwaukee maybe? I can't think of who they're trotting out there every day while waiting for Corey Hart to come back from injury...

[Edgy MD]

I don't know, but if cutting payroll by something like 35%, trading a highly paid outfielder for a pitching prospect, trading a Cy Young winner for a package of prospects, letting the All-Star yearbook cover shortstop walk, avoiding anything more than short-term commitments in the free-agent market, and picking high school position players #1 three years in a row aren't indications of a remake, I don't know what is. The only things running counter to that scenario is (1) they haven't formally announced a rebuild, and (2) they re-signed David Wright.

You can disagree with either or both of those last two being part of a re-building program, but I think they're defensible as part of one.

[Vic Sage]

But the Wright signing (as much as i liked it) is exactly why this is NOT a complete "blow up" situation, and a half-assed rebuild, in a typically Metsian fashion. If it was about rebuilding, they would have picked up David's 1-year option in the off-season, then traded him for the best package of prospects they could extract.

Also the failure to sign Reyes was financial, not part of a rebuild. Again, we could have traded Reyes, as we did Beltran, as a rental since we apparently knew we weren't going to keep him, but we didn't and got nothing for him. so NOT a rebuilding move.

Both the Reyes non-move and the Wright signing were more about saving face with the fans than baseball decisions, in my view.

Trading Beltran, fragile and limited but still a potent bat, for a prospect was a matter of rebuilding but also of dumping salary, which was Sandy's number 1 priority.

With Dickey, he was 38, looking for more years and $ than Sandy was willing to pay. So we got what we got for him. I don't believe that was motivated by a directive to rebuild but to keep payroll down.

So yes, the Mets are rebuilding, by default not by design, as a consequence of cost-cutting. the drop in payroll is not evidence of a rebuild; the payroll cut is a CAUSE of the rebuild.

[Edgy MD]

Well, I think you're wavering between "they're not really re-building" and "they're rebuilding for the wrong reasons," but I think I stated clearly that circumstances have forced their hand.

[Benjamin Grimm]

Remember, Dickey was signed for 2013 and at a fairly cheap rate. Trading him seemed to me to be more about "selling high" and restocking the farm system. It would have been easier (especially from a P.R. standpoint) to hang on to him.

I agree that they should have traded Reyes if they knew they couldn't sign him. It would have been deeply unpopular, more so than the Dickey trade was, but they'd be better off now. I don't know if they thought that they had more of a chance than they did, or if they cynically kept him in order to sell tickets for the last few months of 2011.

And then there's Santana. He was riding high in late June of 2012 before he got his ankle stepped on. Might they have traded him in early July if he was healthy? It's not likely that someone would have taken on his full contract, but maybe the Mets could have gotten a nice young player for Santana and a lot of cash. I wonder how much consideration the Mets gave to trying such a move.

[Edgy MD]

As noted above, his contract was almost designed to be untradable on the back end and it was and is. Omar went for broke and broke is what they got.

[Ceetar]

Vic Sage wrote: So yes, the Mets are rebuilding, by default not by design, as a consequence of cost-cutting. the drop in payroll is not evidence of a rebuild; the payroll cut is a CAUSE of the rebuild.

Disagree. Everything was caused by losing. (The financial stuff compounded it, but if they'd been winning you'd barely have noticed)

Alderson is making decisions, financially sound ones, that convert the short term high value pieces into sustained value, because that's what you do when you're getting poor return on current value. (from a wins=money standpoint) The current value of most of those trades was little, because he knew they weren't pushing the Mets past the ~85 win (pick your own number, but the 'really competitive' line) mark. Most of the baseball value of Reyes, Dickey contracts were at the front end when it wasn't worth as much to the Mets. (You could argue the same about Wright I imagine, but people often feel speedy players provide less value later, whereas Wright was already better and likely can still provide value near the end, especially since we'll probably have the DH in the NL by then) Those are risk the Mets take if you can get the value from them early, but they aren't risks you can take proactively.

But now, specifically next year, there looks to be a lot of high value baseball players with little investment. Harvey, probably Wheeler and d'Arnaud. Niese. Perhaps some of the others, like Tejada if he gets back to it. So now the influx of additional value, even at a higher price, augments the value you already have and keeps you from wasting it before it gets expensive. Even if you overpay for it. This is really where it gets interesting, and telling, about what Alderson is thinking long term.


They probably weren't getting anything for Reyes fresh off the DL either. at least, not anything worth giving up the chance that they could negotiate a fitting contract for him themselves.

[batmagadanleadoff]

It's a half assed rebuild, and you only need to look to the Wright Wresigning to see this. eff n Jeff simply didn't have the stomach to weather the shitstorm that would've unfolded when Wright ended up in another team's uniform. The rebuild's also half assed and compromised because the Mets are desperate for revenues and thus, want it both ways. They want to rebuild, yet still pack 'em in like a contending team would. Jeffrey Loria is a scumbag, but a shrewd scumbag, with more baseball sense than our owners. Could you imagine how competitive the Marlins would be if they had just half of the resources that come with having your team located in NYC? The Marlins have more WS crowns during their life than the Mets have first place finishes, and that team runs laps around the Mets when it comes to drafting and developing young talent. I'm not sure what Ike's regression has to do with this? What? Is Ike all of a sudden supposed to be Lou Gehrig? I mean, where the hell are the Mets supposed to be with an acceptable 2013 from Ike?

[Benjamin Grimm]

batmagadanleadoff wrote: I mean, where the hell are the Mets supposed to be with an acceptable 2013 from Ike?

Better positioned for 2014, if nothing else.

[Edgy MD]

So it's not really rebuilding, rebuilding for the wrong reasons, and doing a terrible job at rebuilding.

[batmagadanleadoff]

Vic Sage wrote: Also the failure to sign Reyes was financial, not part of a rebuild. Again, we could have traded Reyes, as we did Beltran, as a rental since we apparently knew we weren't going to keep him, but we didn't and got nothing for him. so NOT a rebuilding move.

The way the Mets handled Reyes contract status during his last season as a Met is still baffling, even now - a year and a half after the fact. In the end, it became clear that the Mets never had a chance to resign Reyes, given their financial constraints. So the only logical explanation for the Mets behavior is that they didn't have the stomach to weather the negative fan reaction that they anticipated would develop after trading Reyes. So they tried instead, to contrive a scenario that was supposed to make it appear that Reyes spurned the Mets offer. It was all so wishy-washy, and typical of this ownership. So they got nothing for one of baseball's most popular players at perhaps, the peak of his career, and didn't save face either. The strategy was ineffective at every measure and almost unanimously criticized.