Schaefer 2013: Ninth Year of Having More Than One!

[Edgy MD]

metsmarathon wrote: when was the last time you awarded points to a catcher for routinely catching routinely pitched balls? when was hte last time you awarded points to a second baseman for fielding a routine ground ball and tossing that ball routinely to the first baseman who routinely caught the routine throw to routinely retire a routinely running runner?

I try and do this.

metsmarathon wrote: we're voting for the player of the game. the frame of reference is that specific game.

I agree with that. I wonder sometimes if we fall out of that frame of reference, particularly with starting pitchers. A six-inning, two-run, four-strikeout, two-walk performance is not the same thing, I think, in an 9-2 win that it is in a 3-2 win, or a 2-1 loss.

[Benjamin Grimm]

Here's the first Schaefer discussion thread, from 2005 and 2006. I think this may include the "several new assholes" conversation that Willets referred to. Either way, it shows how much more lively the Schaefer process was eight years ago when this was all fresh and new.

[Guest Mets � Willets Point]

I don't think I want to reread that. It's not been so long that I could sit down again.

[Benjamin Grimm]

I don't think it's as bad as you recall. That is, if I dug up the correct thread.

[Edgy MD]

There were others. Unpleasant others.

[Vic Sage]

m.e.t.b.o.t. wrote: Harvey 3.93 Duda 3.42 Buck 1.58 Wright 0.57 Byrd 0.42 Parnell 0.07 Edgin 0.02

hey, Bot, you forgot Ike Davis' HR.

[Benjamin Grimm]

Please don't quote anybody else's votes in a voting thread; it will lead to that person's votes getting counted twice.

[Benjamin Grimm]

Voting for Thursday's afternoon loss to the Padres will close on Tuesday morning.

Schaefer POTG 04/04/2013 Padres 2, Mets 1

[Guest John Cougar Lunchbucket]

Edgy MD wrote: There were others. Unpleasant others.

Well, seeing as it's been what, 7 years since someone's feelings got hurt, how about we all forgive one another and start fighting over this stuff again?

Like today, Byrd is getting tons more beer than Nieuwenhuis who to me was the Real American Hero of the 9th inning. A pinch-hit single off the closer than a daring dash to set up the winning run. Not saying the Byrd is overrewarded so much as Kirk is being under-rewarded.

[m.e.t.b.o.t.]

Vic Sage wrote: m.e.t.b.o.t. wrote: Harvey 3.93 Duda 3.42 Buck 1.58 Wright 0.57 Byrd 0.42 Parnell 0.07 Edgin 0.02 hey, Bot, you forgot Ike Davis' HR.

m.e.t.b.o.t. lacks any physical data storage device, and therefore is incapable of forgetting. it is always possible that an algorithmic error has occurred, but in this case, no.

metropolitan first baseman ike davis had four at bats.

in the first at bat, with a score of 0-0 with a runner on first base and 2 outs, metropolitan first baseman ike davis grounded out to second base, decreasing the probability of a metropolitan win by 2.2%, to 50%.

in the second at bat, in the third inning with a score of 2-0, and 2 outs, metropolitan first baseman ike davis again grounded out to second base, decreasing the probability of a metropolitan win this time by 0.7%, to 75%.

in the third at bat, in the fifth inning with a score of 5-0 with a runner on third base and 1 out, metropolitan first baseman ike davis hit a home run. because of the score of hte game, and with the metropolitans already having a 97.6% probability of winning the game, this at bat resulted in an increase in the probability of the metropolitans winning the game of only 1.5%, to 99.1%.

in the fourth and final at bat, leading off the seventh inning with a score of 8-0, metropolitan first baseman ike davis flied out to left field. the metropolitans already had a 99.9% probability of winning the game, and this outcome affected the probability of winning the game by less than one tenth of one percent, and is scored as 0%.

the sum total contribution by metropolitan first baseman ike davis was negative. the positive contribution came late in a lopsided game, and therefore affected the outcome less than his earlier failures, notably the first at bat.

[m.e.t.b.o.t.]

metropolitan pitcher matt harvey received a relatively low score in the april 8th game because of the early offense generated in particular by metropolitan catcher john buck. following the home run by metropolitan catcher john buck, the metropolitans had a 78% probability of winning the game. as the offense continued to generate runs, there was less and less positive impact available to metropolitan pitcher matt harvey.

interestingly, in digging through the play log, m.e.t.b.o.t. has noticed one curious play, which affected the probability of the metropolitans winning the game in an unexpected fashion.

in the fourth inning, philadelphian second baseman chase utley hit a single with no outs and a runner on second. the runner advanced to third. with a score of 0-4, and a runner each on first and third base, the philadelphians had a 24.2% probability of winning the game. the next batter, philadelphian first baseman ryan howard, hit a sacrifice fly ball to right field, which resulted in the runner on third base scoring. with a score of 1-4, with one out in the bottom of the fourth inning and a runner on first base, the philadelphians now had a probability of winning the game of only 20.1%. by trading the out for the run, the philadelphians had actually [u:1sodxvdv]decreased [/u:1sodxvdv]their chances of winning the game.

m.e.t.b.o.t. investigated if a large part of that reduction lies with the failure of the runner on first base to advance to second base. according to the estimator provided by the hardball times, the failure of the runner at first base to advance cost the philadelphians approximately 1.4%. therefore, the driving factor in the decrease in the probability of winning the game lies primarily with the loss of the out.

m.e.t.b.o.t. finds this observation to be rather interesting, and that it may support a continuing disapproval of the practice of willfully sacrificing outs for the advanced positioning of baserunners in many situations where the score differential is not very small.

[Benjamin Grimm]

Voting for all three games played against the Marlins last weekend will close on Wednesday afternoon.

Schaefer POTG 4/5/13 - Marlins 7, Mets 5
Schaefer POTG 4/6/13 - Mets 7, Marlins 3
Schaefer POTG 4/7/13 - Mets 4, Marlins 3

Great participation so far this year. We had 15 votes for a losing game (Thursday against San Diego), which is a terrific number. It's nice to see so many people playing along.

[Benjamin Grimm]

SCHAEFER METS PLAYER OF THE WEEK, 2013
Week ending April 6: John Buck, 7.21 points.

[Edgy MD]

I may have to beg you to give me until this eve on one or two of those Fishgames.

[Benjamin Grimm]

Sorry, they were closed a couple of hours ago.

[Zvon]

Benjamin Grimm wrote: Sorry, they were closed a couple of hours ago.

He runs a tight ship. Yea, Buck! gratz!

[Zvon]

I think the winner for the season should get a real classy expensive matchbox car.

[batmagadanleadoff]

metsmarathon wrote: A pitcher doesn't throw a shutout, or a no-hitter, all by himself. Fielders must make the plays behind him. And the catcher has to hold on to the third strike. I don't believe that Schaefer correlates perfectly with what we'd consider dominant performances. For example, the most dominant thing that a pitcher could do is strike out all 27 batters in a perfect game. But for Schaefer purposes I'd award a pitcher more points if he pitched a perfect game where every batter popped out to that pitcher. oh come now. when was the last time you awarded points to a catcher for routinely catching routinely pitched balls? when was hte last time you awarded points to a second baseman for fielding a routine ground ball and tossing that ball routinely to the first baseman who routinely caught the routine throw to routinely retire a routinely running runner?

I wouldn't award those defensive points in Schaefer voting only because it's not worth the trouble. But routine plays count and they should, ideally, be accounted for. Schaefer is supposed to be mainly a fun exercise, and like a risk/reward analysis, the effort needed to score every defensive play would eliminate whatever joy there is in participating in the first place. Not that I participate very much, anyways.

metsmarathon wrote: but it is the schaefer player of the game. as in who did hte most in that specific game. and if one guy did hte most of all the positive things done in the game, and he did more than everybody else who did positive things in the game, then i see no reason why he should not be awarded 6 points.

But your logic doesn't explain why the game's best player should get six points. Though I didn't give Johan six points for his no-hitter, I did award him more points than any other Met for that game.

[Benjamin Grimm]

Voting for Monday night's win in Philadelphia will close on Friday morning.

Schaefer POTG 4/8/13 - Mets 7, Phillies 2

[metsmarathon]

batmagadanleadoff wrote: metsmarathon wrote: but it is the schaefer player of the game. as in who did hte most in that specific game. and if one guy did hte most of all the positive things done in the game, and he did more than everybody else who did positive things in the game, then i see no reason why he should not be awarded 6 points. But your logic doesn't explain why the game's best player should get six points. Though I didn't give Johan six points for his no-hitter, I did award him more points than any other Met for that game.

i'm not saying that hte game's best player should get 6 points. i'm saying there's no reason why a player who does more than the rest of his team combined shouldn't be eligible for 6 points.

the game's best player could get zero points, for all i care, if he just only didin't suck nearly as bad as everybody else sucked in a 23-0 blowout. it's certainly possible. in fact, the 'bot has run across such an occurrence where nobody had a positive WPA in a game. my formulatings are a bit more generous, but if every pitcher gave up hits and runs, nobody hit a lick, and nobody fielded particularly well, then i'd give out a zero too.

also, it is certianly true that a valid voting scheme could be devised where a voter decided to rank the most schaferly players of a game, and give out points based solely on that ranking, for inscance, a strict 6.0 | 2.5 | 1.0 | 0.5 would have some merit, or a 6 | 3 | 1 if you wanted less granularity. who says the points have to be given out linearly. (in my massive overly complex spreadsheet, i'm actually tallying such a thing. right now, buck leads with 14 points).

[ashie62]

Two players only..I dont see the point of 0.37 for some players.

[Benjamin Grimm]

Voting for Tuesday and Wednesday's losses in Philadelphia will close on Monday morning. Please try to get any remaining votes posted today or over the weekend.

Schaefer POTG 4/9/13 - Phillies 8, Mets 3
Schaefer POTG 4/10/13 - Phillies 7, Mets 3

[Benjamin Grimm]

metsmarathon wrote: i actually had harvey at six point two, but had to knock him down per the rules.

6.2 honorary Schaefer points to metsmarathon for remembering to not to use numeric characters in his comments in the voting thread!

Well done!

[Benjamin Grimm]

Voting for both games played in Minneapolis against the Twins over the weekend will close on Wednesday afternoon, not before 2 p.m.

Schaefer POTG 4/12/13 - Mets 16, Twins 5
Schaefer POTG, 4/13/2013: Mets 4 Twins 2

[Benjamin Grimm]

Voting for both ends of the doubleheader loss to the Rockies on Tuesday will close on Monday morning, April 22.

Schaefer POTG 4/16/13, Game 1 - Rockies 8, Mets 4
Schaefer POTG 4/16/13, Game 2 - Rockies 9, Mets 8

[metsmarathon]

good heavens, when you say morning, you ain't kidding.

[Benjamin Grimm]

Sorry!

Voting for Thursday afternoon's loss to the Rockies will close on Tuesday morning.

I'll post the "official" notice tomorrow, but the three games against Washington will close on Wednesday afternoon.

Schaefer POTG 4/17/13 - Rockies 11, Mets 3

[Benjamin Grimm]

Voting for the three games played last weekend against the Nationals will close on Wednesday afternoon, some time after 2 p.m.

Schaefer POTG 4/19/13 - Mets 7, Nationals 1
Schaefer POTG 4/20/13 - Nationals 7, Mets 6
Schaefer POTG 4/21/13 - Mets 2, Nationals 0

[metsmarathon]

it might seem as if i've overindulged on familia in the 4/23 game, but really, with 3 strikeouts in 1 2/3 innings of relief, stranding two inherited runners, and with nobody else doing much of anything, his was hte performance of the game.

keep in mind, of course, that i generally ignore the score or whether or not a players' performance was in garbage time or clutch time.

[Guest themetfairy]

Stranding inherited runners deserves beer.