Duda Right Thing (IPP: Lucas Duda)

[Guest John Cougar Lunchbucket]

So Doodoo is being held out of the next few games to get his shit together. Terry sounded a bit irritated, as though it wasn't just a routine recovery from the wrist injury holding him back but the notion he's out of shape generally (this is my interpretation of his tone anyway).

I'm thinking, that's bad. If the fans get on him this year (and he's got to be first in line as he's the most visible representative of an outfield the fans will want to express their disapproval of) I can't see him overcome that. Really I see him becoming this year's version of Pelfrey: A big supposedly talented guy who struggles to dominate and gets a rep as a "head case."

All that said I kind of like Doodoo as an idea: he's got powa but also a good base-hit stroke, so if it goes right for him he could be a 25/90/280 kinda guy playing every day.

But this latest development has me worried. What's your prediction for Duda in 2013?

[Ceetar]

I think he'll have a good year and I don't buy the head case thing, but I haven't read up on this latest..sitting out thing?

I'd be surprised at an out of shape thing considering he's been there for weeks.

a Spring Training of hard work with his swing and approach should pay off in my mind.

.270/.365/.475 28 HR

I do agree that he's going to be the scapegoat.

[metirish]

I can see him being out of shape, perfect fit his future as a DH. It would be harsh for the fans to give him Pelfrey treatment, wouldn't be surprising though.

In a platoon by mid May.

[Ceetar]

metirish wrote: I can see him being out of shape

That people can see it is I think is the main basis for such reports.

[Frayed Knot]

He's 0-fer-7 with 6 Ks so far this spring, a performance that got him out of yesterday's lineup and onto a back field for remedial help to hope he can "find his swing" [Kernan - NY Post]. Various quotes follow talking about it being a 'timing issue' which could be attributed to the off-season wrist injury and the lack of swings because of it.

[Edgy MD]

I don't think he's out of shape so much as (1) adapting to his injury, and (2) Lucas Duda. I'd never use the term head case --- pejorative and as broad as to be useless ---- but he strikes me as having a terribly awkward personality. And that's a shame because he seems to have the most complete skill set as a hitter of anybody to come down the road for thee Mets since Wright. Good contact stroke, good power. But he gets lost for six weeks at a time. So if the Mets are trying to intervene before he falls into one of those holes, best wishes to them.

A challenge, try to find a photo of Duda, where you think, "Man, that's one relaxed and easygoing dude.":



He strikes me as the big guy that jerky little guys picked fights with, just to make them look goofy when they fight themselves to maintain composure while fighting back.

[Guest John Cougar Lunchbucket]

I understand the official explanation, and I'm perfectly willing to believe that, it was just the tone in Terry's voice as he discussed it that led me to believe that it's a timing issue
... that ought to have been worked on before he arrived at camp, or
... wouldn't be such an issue were he not so fat, or
... hasn't been addressed by Duda to Terry's satisfaction thus far, etc etc

I agree "Head case" is not a good term but that's what'll be used. He's Pelfrey all over I'm convinced.

[Benjamin Grimm]

Hope JCL doesn't mind... I made this the IPP thread for Lucas Duda.

I've tended to always see Lucas Duda as, at best, another Jeromy Burnitz. On Mets Hot Stove last week, Daniel Murphy said that "the Dude" is the guy to watch this year, the player who's going to have a breakout year that will surprise everyone. I hope it happens, and if it does, I'll be one of those who are surprised. I'm afraid that 2013 is going to be his last hurrah with the Mets, and that he'll play himself out of the conversation for the 2014 outfield.

I'll say .239, 15 homers, 120 strikeouts, benched by August.

[seawolf17]

I think the Duda Bides, although Burnitz is a scary parallel.

.260/33/88 in 140 games.

[MFS62]

Frayed Knot wrote: He's 0-fer-7 with 6 Ks so far this spring, a performance that got him out of yesterday's lineup and onto a back field for remedial help to hope he can "find his swing" [Kernan - NY Post]. Various quotes follow talking about it being a 'timing issue' which could be attributed to the off-season wrist injury and the lack of swings because of it.

Yesterday's paper (Post?) mentioned that Hudgens felt Duda's swing was too "busy", so has been working with Duda to reduce the extra motion as the pitch arrives. So, he isn't finding his swing per se, he is learing an entirely different swing, including footwork/ stride. And he looks uncomfortable so far.
In the article, Hudgens cited Joey Votto as an examle of a good lefty hitter with a quiet stance. Does a quiet, flatfooted, stance make a hitter successful? What about Joe Morgan's flapping elbow, Stan Musual playing "peek-a-boo" and Sadahara Oh standing on one leg? Mybe Duda doesn't look comfortable because he isn't.

But I think it will work itself out, and Duda will finish .265 - 26- 86.
I made this prediction last year, but I'll make it again this year:
Davis and Duda will be the most outstanding pair of Ds seen on a baseball field since Morganna.

Later

[Edgy MD]

In education, there's this new model called the Strengths Movement. The theory goes that educators should stop using time and resources on isolating, pathologizing, and treating a child's weaknesses, which serves to stigmatize and discourage a child, and motivates them to aspire to reaching milestones of average, and instead recognize and encourage what a child is best at, which motivates them to excel, and gives them to the confidence to attack their weaknesses in their own way, without shame.

It strikes me that managers work from similar poles. You have guys using spring to spend hours upon hours working on the crap parts of their game, and will limit their playing time until they smooth off the rough edges --- this would perhaps be the fictional version (perhaps the real one too) of Art Howe in Moneyball. And then you have the guys who pride themselves on recognizing what works about a guy's game, accepting what does't, and trying to get those guys into a situation that matches their skills.

Maybe Davy Johnson is the model of this latter type. Obviously, most managers work somewhere in between, on a case-by-case basis. But considering that Lucas almost always looks like he's on the verge of crying, he strikes me as a delicate case for a manager to be a hardass with.

[Edgy MD]

seawolf17 wrote: I think the Duda Bides, although Burnitz is a scary parallel. .260/33/88 in 140 games.

Burnitz can also be a pretty exciting parallel. Burnitz had a damn good career --- just not for the Mets.

[metirish]

IPP ?

[Benjamin Grimm]

metirish wrote: IPP ?

It's our newest TLA. It's all the rage!

[Vic Sage]

Edgy MD wrote: I think the Duda Bides, although Burnitz is a scary parallel. .260/33/88 in 140 games. Burnitz can also be a pretty exciting parallel. Burnitz had a damn good career --- just not for the Mets.

yeah, you beat me to it, Edge.

The guy played 14 years, with a .250/30hr/95rbi line, and a career .825 OPS, not to mention a great RF arm. Duda should be so lucky as to have that kind of career. And i don't see it happening.

projection: .240 /16 HRs in around 300 ABs, benched by August

[Edgy MD]

He's pretty much at the point in his career where Burnitz turned a corner, for whatever that's worth.

[MFS62]

metirish wrote: IPP ?

IPP stands for "Individual Player Prediction".

Later

[Vic Sage]

He's pretty much at the point in his career where Burnitz turned a corner, for whatever that's worth.

not exactly.

Burnitz was a late bloomer, who didn't put up a full quality season till age 28, after 5 years in the majors, with 3 different teams. And maybe Duda will need that kind of time and opportunity, or maybe he won't, or maybe he'll never develop regardless of time and opportunity. But Burnitz was given the extended chance because he was a 1st round pick, with a lot of natural athletic talent, who was a pretty good OFer even when he wasn't hitting. Plus he played with intensity and passion, which managers (and fans) tend to like. Duda has none of this, and with a personality bordering on borderline, i don't think he will be given that kind of extended opportunity to turn the corner in his career.

I'd like to be wrong.

[batmagadanleadoff]

Duda's the worst defensive outfielder in all of baseball. By any measure. By every measure. He's so bad that he's capable of hitting like an all star all season long and still grading out as an overall liability. If Duda's not in the AL in 2014, then he's the likeliest Met to be asked to put on the Santa suit for next Winter's holiday party.

[Farmer Ted]

I broke my hand 30 years ago and my wrist is still limp. Anyway......

[Edgy MD]

not exactly.

No, not exactly. Therefore I wrote "pretty much." I'm just noting that:

• Burnitz turned the corner at 28 and about 274 games into his career.
  
• Duda is 27 and 250 games into his career.

I draw no parallels beyond that. I didn't even introduce Burnitz to the thread. While Burnitz may have been given time to come around because of his useful defense, Duda's gotten time because of his.. team's lack of alternatives and their steadfastness, I guess.

[Guest LeiterWagnerFasterStrongr]

Nice debut, second-year terribleness, entering age-27 season...

... I'm feeling optimistic. Let's give him a prorated/tweaked version of Burnitz's third/age-27 season, along with terrible defense: 450 PAs, 400 AB, .255/.356/.470, 18 HRs, 67 RBI, 46 XBH, 55 R, 94 K.

[DocTee]

.243/17/68

Hot streaks when the Mets play poorly, cold snaps when they are on a tear. Gone in 2014.

[Lefty Specialist]

LeiterWagnerFasterStrongr wrote: Nice debut, second-year terribleness, entering age-27 season... ... I'm feeling optimistic. Let's give him a prorated/tweaked version of Burnitz's third/age-27 season, along with terrible defense: 450 PAs, 400 AB, .255/.356/.470, 18 HRs, 67 RBI, 46 XBH, 55 R, 94 K.

This. I'd say that he'd be in a platoon by mid-season, but I expect all of their starting outfielders will be in that situation and there won't be enough people to platoon with. So he'll stay in the lineup most days for 'maybe he'll run into one' reasons. Just hoping that the 'maybe he'll run into one' isn't one of the other outfielders.

[Fman99]

.291/38 HR/110 RBI, impregnates every 5th woman in Bayside. Big Duda.

[ashie62]

The dude looks a little like John Kruk..

425 AB .229/16/50

Not enough to keep him around.

[Vic Sage]

That would be ok if he he HIT like Krukie, too.

[smg58]

Ashie62 wrote: 425 AB .229/16/50 Not enough to keep him around.

Agree with the top line, wish I could agree with the bottom.

[Zvon]

Anything "Mets" that hasn't happened yet, I gotta be optimistic about.

.269/ 29(with 2 weeks left to the season to hit his 30th and he doesn't do it)/ 83

I think its a good thing they are re-working his approach at the plate. I always thought he was showing too many moving parts. Thought I saw the leg lift/toe tap back today when he got that hit up the middle.

[batmagadanleadoff]

From Baseball Prospectus 2013:

Zip-a-Dee's WARP scores in 2011 and 2012 show the two poles for a player who hurts his team on the bases and in the field: hit and have modest value or don't hit and be a horrible sinkhole. Duda struggles with the low pitch. Major league pitchers being what they are, and major league advance scouting being what it is, you can guess where Duda was pitched in 2012. The ability to recognize the problem and adjust back will be key to Duda returning to a semblance of his 2011 self. (Apologies to readers who have been waiting all comment for a Big Lebowski joke. Not happening. PA 438 HR 16 .261/.333/.438 WARP -1.5