Angel Pagan and Jenrry Mejia for Cliff Lee???

[Vic Sage]

It depends on how seriously we're taking the Mets this year. Right now, we're the 3rd best record in the NL.

Lee is 31, not 41, and is one of the top pitchers in BB. Our "ace", has lost the lustre on his fastball and, while still pretty good, is no longer great. Our 2 & 3 are young pitchers with talent but "young pitcher" inconsistency. Our #4 is a middle-aged AAAA pitcher with a trick pitch who has fooled major league hitters for about a month. Our #5 is ineffective after the 1st time thru a lineup.

So Lee knocks everybody down a slot making the rotation pretty strong, putting takahashi back in the pen and so strengthening that, too.

When Beltran comes back, Pagan returns to being the 4th outfielder he's been for the last 5 years. He's 29, and i don't trust that he'll maintain this level of production. His career has been about injuries, and he's just "tweaked" something in his back.

and Mejia has talent, sure, but who knows? All we do know for sure is that he never grabbed a very available slot as F-Rod's setup guy this year, despite Jerry's support, and he's a 2-pitch 20 year old who has a very real shot at being 21, but anything else is pure speculation and wishful thinking.

If the Mets think Beltran is coming back in the next 2-3 weeks (without a significant limp), they should do this deal. If they're still dubious about Beltran, see if Seattle will take a package of 2-3 prospects (including Mejia). But i think we have serious post-season possibilities with 3+ months (and a post-season) of Lee this year (and either extending him thereafter, or getting 2 1st rounders next year).

The TiTTS say "yea, verily, yea."

[Guest Edgy DC]

LeiterWagnerFasterStrongr wrote: Plus, Pagan's still controllable (arb-wise) for another year (IIRC), while Mejia's remaining cheap for the better part of 5-6 years. You're trading that as well for the 1-1.5 WAR.

Maybe moreso.

[batmagadanleadoff]

soupcan wrote: batmagadanleadoff wrote: ...a baseball peeve of mine is hearing a team say they're looking for a number five pitcher, or a number four pitcher. What the hell does that mean? I take that to mean how much they want to pay a guy and/or how much they'd be willing to give up to get a guy.

Well .... ya get what ya pay for.

[Gwreck]

Vic Sage wrote: It depends on how seriously we're taking the Mets this year. Right now, we're the 3rd best record in the NL.

While technically true that's not very descriptive. We are tied with Atlanta in the loss column and 1 game back of San Diego.

[Vic Sage]

Gwreck wrote: Vic Sage wrote: It depends on how seriously we're taking the Mets this year. Right now, we're the 3rd best record in the NL. While technically true that's not very descriptive. We are tied with Atlanta in the loss column and 1 game back of San Diego.

great, that's more descriptive and doesn't change my point one iota.

we're near the half-way point of the season and we're on a pace for 90+ wins, and close enough to make a serious run at the pennant this season, since no teams have run away from the pack.

[metsmarathon]

and, of course, if we are to make the playoffs, lee then becomes much more valuable than pagan in a short series.

[TransMonk]

metsmarathon wrote: and, of course, if we are to make the playoffs, lee then becomes much more valuable than pagan in a short series.

Yup.

[Guest LeiterWagnerFasterStrongr]

metsmarathon wrote: and, of course, if we are to make the playoffs, lee then becomes much more valuable than pagan in a short series.

And that would be whence the lion's share of Lee's value comes.

To my mind, it's a trade you may seriously consider making if the team looks nigh-guaranteed to make the playoffs in a month. Right now, with Beltran a question mark, and the pennant race not even yet begun, if you're a responsible steward of the team, you really can't pull the trigger on this... or seriously consider doing this anytime soon.

I also just don't like trading resources when they're not at maximal value. Pagan might be close, but Mejia is nowhere near-a.

[seawolf17]

Good to see I'm not the only person who's drinking the Pagan Juice. I'd probably make that deal now before everyone realizes that his comparable career guys (according to B-R.com) are guys like Mitch Webster and Timo Perez.

[Gwreck]

I suppose it's possible that Pagan was one of those oft-injured, oft-overlooked guys who finally developed into a solid player but I too am of the mind that we're getting maximum return from him and accordingly am of the opinion that we could trade him without losing too much.

[seawolf17]

Gwreck wrote: I suppose it's possible that Pagan was one of those oft-injured, oft-overlooked guys who finally developed into a solid player but I too am of the mind that we're getting maximum return from him and accordingly am of the opinion that we could trade him without losing too much.

If only we had another centerfielder to get us through to Carlos. Hey, is GMJ still available?

[ashie62]

Doesn't help that Pagan is tweaked.

Beyond that, I'm ambivalent on the proposal. Sometimes you don't have to do anything.

[soupcan]

Kojak Feliciano went 3-5 with 2 runs scored last night.

Again - Just sayin'.

[Guest LeiterWagnerFasterStrongr]

How'd Endy's knee heal over in Texas, anyway?

[Zvon]

soupcan wrote: If Lee is only going to be a rental I'd be averse to even giving them Mejia. For a rental they get a pitching prospect and a young position player that the Mets have no place for. Maybe throw another body at them as well. If Lee will negotiate an extension, well then we're talking. Give them Mejia and Fartinez and let them pick another hotshot from the minors. If they are bent on Pagan, I'd consider it and maybe I'd pull the trigger on that gambling that Beltran will be okay. I've said it before and I'll say it again - I'm jealous of a guy like Omar, but in reality I couldn't do that job.

Ill go with that trade.

Omar has done enough gambling the last few years.
I think he's a good GM.
He's a bad gambler.

[metirish]

Mejia pulled from his start today with shoulder stiffnes.

[MFS62]

seawolf17 wrote: Gwreck wrote: I suppose it's possible that Pagan was one of those oft-injured, oft-overlooked guys who finally developed into a solid player but I too am of the mind that we're getting maximum return from him and accordingly am of the opinion that we could trade him without losing too much. If only we had another centerfielder to get us through to Carlos. Hey, is GMJ still available?

And J. Feliciano is running around the clubhouse asking who Wally Pipps was.

Later

[Guest LeiterWagnerFasterStrongr]

MFS62 wrote: seawolf17 wrote: Gwreck wrote: I suppose it's possible that Pagan was one of those oft-injured, oft-overlooked guys who finally developed into a solid player but I too am of the mind that we're getting maximum return from him and accordingly am of the opinion that we could trade him without losing too much. If only we had another centerfielder to get us through to Carlos. Hey, is GMJ still available? And J. Feliciano is running around the clubhouse asking who Wally Pipps was.

I have to check my MLB Reference Stylebook to be sure, but I think you have to have the starting job for more than a third of a season before you're eligible for being Pipped.

I'm happy for the Mejia stiffness-- as it now stands-- if only because it keeps them from trading him.

[metirish]

This from Ken Davidoff in an article imploring the Mets to " go for it"......a loss of two and that will change

Alas, the day didn't bring only positive developments for the Mets. Jenrry Mejia, the prodigal former mop-up man, left his start for Double-A Binghamton after one-plus innings, citing stiffness in his right shoulder. The Mets didn't want to include Mejia in a trade package for Seattle's Cliff Lee anyway, but if Mejia goes down for even a short while, that 1) eliminates him as a trade chip; 2) deletes him from the Mets' internal depth chart for starting pitchers and 3) pretty much confirms that this year was a fiasco for the 20-year-old righthander.

http://www.newsday.com/sports/columnists/ken-davidoff/davidoff-mets-again-show-it-s-time-to-go-for-it-1.2058813

[Guest Edgy DC]

I disagree with all three of those hysterical points.

[Zvon]

metirish wrote: http://www.newsday.com/sports/columnists/ken-davidoff/davidoff-mets-again-show-it-s-time-to-go-for-it-1.2058813

Never heard of Ken.
I thought this was a Madoff joke involving Wright.

How many hoops ya gotta jump thru to read that article?
Oy.

[seawolf17]

Edgy DC wrote: I disagree with all three of those hysterical points.

Two of the three, anyway. I don't think they're going to trade him if he's hurt.

[Guest Edgy DC]

Which isn't the equal of the idea that even a short injury break eliminates him as a trade chip.

[Guest Edgy DC]

Nicely written summary of the Cliff Lee Experience.

[Guest LeiterWagnerFasterStrongr]

In the Post blog, Joel Sherman makes some points (some more salient than others) about midseason trades and prospect valuation, and a few more thoughts on Lee-to-the-Mets:

Now there is some precedent for trading Lee for far less than his value. The Indians dealt Lee to the Phillies in July last year with 1 1-2 years remaining on the lefty�s contract, and received back four pieces that � to date � would be described as underwhelming. But the Indians felt the desperation to dump salary, which the Mariners are not going to feel. Lee was traded from the Phillies to the Mariners with one year left on Lee�s contract for three prospects who do not overly excite teams. But Philadelphia had just obtained Roy Halladay and felt a pressing � and probably foolhardy � need to try and restock its system rather than uniting Halladay and Lee to become the unquestioned powerhouse of the NL. I don�t believe the Mets, for example, would trade Ike Davis for all seven of those prospects that were dealt in the last year for Lee. So interested teams might say, �hey, in those trades Lee had a year and a half and then a year left on his contract and the packages for him were not Grade A, so why should we give up a Grade-A prospect now with just a half year left on Lee�s deal?� It is a good question. My answer is this: I don�t think Mariners GM Jack Zduriencik will make the same mistake. I have known Zduriencik a long time, going back to his days more than a decade ago when he worked in the Mets front office. I think I know him well enough that he is not interested in quantity like in the previous deals as much as quality. Zduriencik�s background is mostly filled with working on the draft, so he is not going to be horrified to simply keep Lee, offer Lee arbitration when the lefty becomes a free agent and accept the two first-round draft picks that come with that. He will always believe that he can find top players in the first round of a draft. So regardless of what happened in recent Lee deals, in this one, I believe, Zduriencik is going to have to believe he got something far better than those two picks in order to trade those two picks (remember an acquiring team would have the same options once Lee becomes a free agent) plus, you know, also get Lee, a pitcher Zduriencik knows chances (sic) the dynamic of any race he enters. The Mariners are going to need a no-brainer, blue-chip prospect � in other words someone with far, far, far more valuable than Angel Pagan. Pagan is the level of player that is included to round out a deal. For the Mets, the first piece probably has to be either Jenrry Mejia or Wilmer Flores. The Mariners did scout Mejia extensively in the Arizona Fall League and liked his arm, but they don�t like him as an overall prospect nearly as much as, say, Jesus Montero. Also, Mejia�s current rotator cuff injury � though possibly minor � will make him less appetizing to Seattle. Flores will depart this season almost certainly as one of the 20 best prospects in the minors. He is an 18-year-old shortstop who was recently promoted from Low- to High-A, and in his first six games in the Florida State League, Flores is hitting .481. This is merely my belief and not something told to me by either Mariner or Mets officials, but I think the Mets can get Lee for a package that looks something like this: Flores plus an outfielder from among Pagan or Double-A lefty swingers Kirk Nieuwenhuis or Sean Ratliff, whose five homers in his first 58 at-bats since being promoted From A-ball has caught scouts� eyes, and a third piece from among infield prospects Reese Havens or Jordany Valdespin or pitchers Bobby Parnell, Brad Holt or Jeurys Familia.

Assuming for argument's sake that the either/or he proposes above is true, would you rather give up the 18-year-old, three-years-away-at-least hitting prospect... or the much, much closer possible top-line starter without consistent secondary stuff?

(Also... it does seem from the chatter that Thole's a desired commodity, as well.)

[Frayed Knot]

IIRC, Sherman was the guy who praised Mariners GM Jack Zduriencik prior to the season - "look who these idiot Mets let get away" - while the Ms were everyone's pre-season trendy breakthrough pick (how's that working out?). Not that a poor half-season is proof that he won't make a good GM, only that it's not as automatic as we were led to believe and if his moves were golden then Lee wouldn't be up for discussion.

But if Zduriencik is determined to hold out for top prospects there's always a point at which you walk away. There's always some other fish in the sea (Oswalt et al) and you can let some other team pay his ransom. He can also follow through on the implied threat to take the draft picks although that's frequently not nearly the no-brainer it's made out to be. Depending on who signs him, those picks could be as high as upper-teens or as low as the 50s or 60s; choices probably less sure to make it to MLB than even those less than blue-chippers already halfway through the minors.

As for Sherman's packages -- a three-for-one suggestions involving Flores plus two good pieces sound too pricey to me.
As far as Thole, I don't let him stand in the way of almost any deal. I'm not convinced he's anything other than a backup in the future.

[MFS62]

Instead of lee, here's an idea seen on a members only website:

Cubs Are Getting More Serious About Trades By Mike Axisa [July 7 at 5:19pm CST] The Cubs have yet to declare themselves buyers or sellers despite a 37-47 record, but Ken Davidoff of Newsday tweets that the team is starting to get "more serious" about making deals. Davidoff also mentions that the Mets "like the idea" of adding Ted Lilly to their rotation while assuming the $6MM left on his contract in order to give up fewer prospects in a trade. Lilly is just one of several pieces the Cubs could shop, along with Ryan Theriot, Mike Fontenot, Jeff Baker, Derrek Lee, Kosuke Fukudome, and Xavier Nady. The Giants could have interest in Theriot and Chicago tried to push Fukudome on the Red Sox, but nothing has materialized just yet. The Mets have expressed interest in adding a quality starter, and Lilly would certainly fit the bill. There is some uncertainty about the team's ability to add payroll however, so whether or not they can actually take on Lilly's salary remains to be seen.

EDIT: Is it too early to start a trading deadline rumors thread?
Later

[Guest LeiterWagnerFasterStrongr]

If Johan's got his sea legs back, the idea of a Lilly trade-- for FernyMart? Kirk?-- is far more appetizing to me than, say, moving Mejia and Flores for Lee (the current winds of rumor seem to be blowing out figures like "two blue-chip prospects and one additional young player").

[Guest John Cougar Lunchbucket]

Other topics today on the Members Only website:

How Many Zippers Should a Shiny Coat Need?

Elastic Waistbands: They're Coming Back!

Michael J: What a Fox!

srsly, you needed to cut and paste from your secret website when googling Ted Lilly turns up:

Cubs' Lilly moving to Mets? Yahoo! Sports - Mark J. Miller - ?5 hours ago? The paper reports that the New York Mets "like the idea" of bringing Cubs starter (and former New York Yankee) Ted Lilly(notes) back to New York City. ... Ted Lilly: Report: Mets 'like the idea' of adding Lilly Rotoworld.com Possible Trade Deadline Scenarios: Part 1 Bleacher Report Ted Lilly Being Shopped, Derrek Lee as Well Cubbies Crib (blog)

[Guest LeiterWagnerFasterStrongr]

Other topics today on the Members Only website: How Many Zippers Should a Shiny Coat Need? Elastic Waistbands: They're Coming Back! Michael J: What a Fox!

Coffee doesn't taste nearly as good going backwards through my noise.

Also, that seems to be from MLBTradeRumors.com.