Schaefer Voting Discussion Thread

[Guest themetfairy]

In voting for today's game, don't forget Ryan Church's great catch that led to a double play. That was a game complexion changer.

[metsmarathon]

i like when this thread is used to help use gameday watchers identify drink-worthy defensive plays. thanks!

[Guest themetfairy]

Any time

[Guest Kong76]

It was a nice catch, a nice miss and recovery for an out is more like it. I
ain't rewarding Church for bad base running, you can't get doubled up there
with the action in your plain sight in a close game.

[Benjamin Grimm]

I am going to be away (on a short vacation to New Orleans) from Wednesday to Monday, so there won't be any Schaefer tallying for a while. Please keep starting the threads after each game, and I'll start posting results next Tuesday after I return.

Please be sure to finish all voting for the entire Cincinnati series by the end of the day on Monday, April 13.

Oh, and LeiterFasterStrongerWagnerMookieQuickerShamsky, you awarded 11 points for the game of April 6. Please edit when you get a chance.

Thanks!

[Guest Edgy DC]

OK, I'm a rare guy who didn't vote Santana PotG, but a short workday and stranding a whole bunch of the guys on the bases when he batted really strained the old pen.

[Guest Kong76]

I try not to make it too laborious. In a game like today, starting pitcher got
us to point a, the pen got us to point b, c, and d and most of the e only came
from one guy.

I'm almost afraid to ask how Wright gets 0.17 and why not 0.19 or 0.14?

[Guest Edgy DC]

m.e.t.b.o.t. hears my cry.

[Benjamin Grimm]

Was Rodriguez' inning really that much more valuable than the innings pitched by Putz and Green?

[Guest themetfairy]

Was Rodriguez' inning really that much more valuable than the innings pitched by Putz and Green?[/quote:o238bbtp]

Not to me it wasn't.

[metirish]

Was Rodriguez' inning really that much more valuable than the innings pitched by Putz and Green?[/quote:1qd8f7z4]


His gyrations after the save were worth at least a half a point.

[Guest Kong76]

EDC: m.e.t.b.o.t. hears my cry <<<

He didn't even give Wright .01!

[Guest Edgy DC]

My friends, I'm going to tell you what I told all those folks up in arms about the AIG bonuses (grumble... grumble...) --- it's not ain't about the right side of the decimal, but the left.

[batmagadanleadoff]

Was Rodriguez' inning really that much more valuable than the innings pitched by Putz and Green?[/quote:mrh1vyj5]

Not in my book. Now if he came in with the bases loaded and nobody out, for example, and preserved the win under those conditions, that would be another story.

[Guest Edgy DC]

Are we talking about m.e.t.b.o.t.'s scoring? Well, I hope the little creature shows up to defend his work.

Rodriguez got e got 19.9% more points than Green, and 31.0% more than Putz.


(Merged from m.e.t.b.o.t. scoring, 4/7/2009)

[batmagadanleadoff]

Are we talking about m.e.t.b.o.t.'s scoring? Well, I hope the little creature shows up to defend his work.

Rodriguez got e got 19.9% more points than Green, and 31.0% more than Putz.[/quote:1zmvxycc]

And more than twice as much as Santana.


(Merged from m.e.t.b.o.t. scoring, 4/7/2009)

[Gwreck]

Was Rodriguez' inning really that much more valuable than the innings pitched by Putz and Green?[/quote:3u8hvq6y]

Putz' inning should be given the exact same value as Rodriguez.'

Green should get more than either of them.

[Guest Edgy DC]

Was Rodriguez' inning really that much more valuable than the innings pitched by Putz and Green?[/quote:w5o6yw75]

Putz' inning should be given the exact same value as Rodriguez.'

Green should get more than either of them.[/quote:w5o6yw75]

I think history shows that outs in the ninth are worth more than outs in the seventh or eighth, and the seventh and eighth worth more than earlier innings, the score and such being equal.

[batmagadanleadoff]

Was Rodriguez' inning really that much more valuable than the innings pitched by Putz and Green?[/quote:2ujk2ill]

Putz' inning should be given the exact same value as Rodriguez.'

Green should get more than either of them.[/quote:2ujk2ill]

I think history shows that outs in the ninth are worth more than outs in the seventh or eighth, and the seventh and eighth worth more than earlier innings, the score and such being equal.[/quote:2ujk2ill]

That's probably because a run scored in the ninth is worth more than a run scored in an earlier inning. (Not.) Didn't we have this debate last season?

P.S. The link to the m.e.t.b.o.t. split thread isn't working.

[Guest Edgy DC]

Yes we did.

(I pulled two posts out of the PotG thread and stuck them here. It worked.)

[Theoldmole]

After Rodriguez' inning, the game was over and the Mets had won.

[Guest Edgy DC]

And that's key.

According to the win expectancy finder (using data from 2006, the most recent year available), a home team coming to bat in the eighth, down by a run, has a 31.1% chance of winning. If they come up empty in that inning, that percentage drops to 18.1%. The pitcher and any contributing fielders for the visiting team that inning have knocked 13% off that number. Good for them.

The home team coming to bat in the ninth, down by a run, has a 21.9% chance of winning. If they come up empty in that inning, that percentage drops to 0.0%. They've lost. The pitcher and any contributing fielders for the visiting team that inning have knocked 21.9% off that number. Good for them.

[batmagadanleadoff]

But is "Win Expectancy" the best way to assess the value of a relief inning? According to WE, a relief pitcher who is asked to preserve a four run lead in the ninth inning gets the same credit whether he strikes out the side or allows (in this order) three HR's, three walks, and then three line outs to the warning track. (OE -- three deep lineouts where some Ramon Castro type player, but on crutches, was the runner on third). And that's provided you credit the entire percentage to the relief pitcher, as if he and no other teammate should get credit for preserving the lead in the last inning.

Win Expectancy combines the contributions of the entire team. Here, we're trying to isolate (in this example) the relief pitchers' input. The Win Expectancy entering the last of the ninth is based on dozens of events that occurred before K-Rod entered the game.

[Guest Edgy DC]

Well, I said that much credit goes to the "pitcher and any contributing fielders." If the pitcher does almost all the work by fanning the side (with a slight assist to the catcher for calling the pitches and stopping the ball), so much more love for him.

But I don't think that's what we're talking about here. We're talking about the distinction of the value of different innings. I say the numbers show the ninth is worth more.

And if the dominance argument is the issue in asking that Putz get as much credit as Rodriguez, and Green more, I don't think Putz (who walked a man) and Green (who fanned nobody) particularly distinguished themselves more than Rodriguez did.

[A Boy Named Seo]

I pumped Green a little extra because of that extra 1/3 where he relieved Johan, and stranded the only inherited runner (tying run) the pen saw yesterday.

[Guest cooby]

What about the NL west?

sorry wrong thread

[m.e.t.b.o.t.]

m.e.t.b.o.t. is programmed to look only at deterministic results pertaining to the winning and losing of a baseball game. to m.e.t.b.o.t. a baseball hit weakly by a human batter carries the same weight as if that same human batter hit a line drive off the top of the fence, provided in each instance the batter advanced the same number of bases and the runners, if any, advanced the same number of bases.

the genius behind the humble sprocket-and-gear-based programming of m.e.t.b.o.t. are the mantras, oft repeated by human observers of baseball, that "a hit is as good as a walk," and "its a line drive in the box score."

m.e.t.b.o.t. hopes that the quotations are used properly. m.e.t.b.o.t. has been upgraded with a contextual quoting routine, but to date the code has gone untested.

as a pitcher, metropolitan starting pitcher johan santana contributed +0.192 WPA towards the eventual outcome of the game. however, as a batter, metropolitan starting pitcher johan santana contributed -0.104 WPA, for a net of only +0.088 WPA. m.e.t.b.o.t. often notices that starting pitchers in the national league detract significantly from their ability to win baseball games through their inability to contribute positively as a batter.

metropolitan third baseman david wright contributed -.055 WPA in his first plate appearance, -.012 in his second plate appearance, +.027 in his third plate appearance, +.009 in his fourth plate appearance, and +.019 in his final plate appearance. however, david wright also contributed -.032 WPA in getting picked off. his total contribution was -.044 WPA.

m.e.t.b.o.t. is not programmed to award positive schaeffer votes to negative WPA contributions.

[Guest Edgy DC]

That's my b.o.t.

Whatever you do, don't hit that little button on the left side of his belly.

[Guest cooby]

m.e.t.b.o.t., do you have, like, a macro that does that or do you have to type it out every time?

[Fman99]

m.e.t.b.o.t. rules. I'd like to buy him a beer, or a can of oil or a battery or whatever.