Schaefer Voting Discussion Thread

[Benjamin Grimm]

Voting for all three games against the Cubs will close sometime on Thursday:

September 4 www.cranepoolforum.net/phpBB3/viewtopic.php?f=1&t=12422
September 5 www.cranepoolforum.net/phpBB3/viewtopic.php?f=1&t=12428
September 6 www.cranepoolforum.net/phpBB3/viewtopic.php?f=1&t=12432

[Guest Rockin' Doc]

metbot must be a huge fan of the walk. For the 9/9 loss to the Marlins, Metbot awarded Sullivan 2.04 points for an 0-1 performance in which he drew a walk as an 8th inning pinch hitter for Nick Evans. Granted, the Mets offense is pretty anemic, but that's high regard for a walk. Pagan went 2-4 with the Mets lone extra base hit and garnered no points from metbot. I think someone best check to see that metbot wasn't overwound or something.

[Guest Edgy DC]

Figgy allowed 15 baserunners in 5 1/3 innings. It's hard for me to award him anything, much less name him the PotG.

[Frayed Knot]

I gave him a token for stranding all those runners and dancing between the raindrops as long as he did.

[m.e.t.b.o.t.]

metbot must be a huge fan of the walk. For the 9/9 loss to the Marlins, Metbot awarded Sullivan 2.04 points for an 0-1 performance in which he drew a walk as an 8th inning pinch hitter for Nick Evans. Granted, the Mets offense is pretty anemic, but that's high regard for a walk. Pagan went 2-4 with the Mets lone extra base hit and garnered no points from metbot. I think someone best check to see that metbot wasn't overwound or something.[/quote:1uzfegzt]

while m.e.t.b.o.t. is but a handmade springwound contraption whose inner workings even m.e.t.b.o.t.'s creator does not fully understand, the process by which m.e.t.b.o.t. is initiated via winding the winding of a skate key is fairly consistent and is frequently calibrated against a known torque standard. m.e.t.b.o.t. is also equipped with a ratcheting feature which prohibits an excessive torque from being inputted into m.e.t.b.o.t.'s delicate clockwork mechanisms. m.e.t.b.o.t. assures himap poster rockin' doc that m.e.t.b.o.t. awarded a mathematically apporopriate quantity of schaeffer points to metropolitan pinch hitter cory sullivan.

at the time cory sullivan entered the game, the score was 3-6, in the bottom of the 8th inning. given the score and the inning, the home team had only an 8.9% chance of winning the game. with cory sullivan reaching first base via a walk, with no outs in the bottom of the 8th, the team losing the game 3-6 now had a 13.9% chance of winning the game. in drawing that walk, cory sullivan increased the win expectancy for the metropolitans by 0.051, or 5.1%.

because ther were few metropolitans with positive contributions to the win expectancy of that game, that 0.051 win expectancy added is multiplied by 40 to convert to schaeffer points, per the system m.e.t.b.o.t. has been programed to use. (if the positive contributions to win expectancy total greater than 0.250, then the resulting conversion totals greater than the maximum allowable 10 points for schaeffer voting, and those resulting points are scaled appropriately to 10) (m.e.t.b.o.t. is testing a new parellel communication tool which utilizes parentheses to separate out off topic, but still-relevant, information to better aid communication with human posters.)

in the same game, metropolitan outfielder angel pagan singled to lead off the first inning, which yielded a +0.031 win expectancy. in his second at bat, angel pagan flied out to shortstop, down 0-4 with 2 outs in the bottom of the third, which yielded a -0.008 win expectancy. losing 0-5 with two outs in the 6th inning, and the bases empty, angel pagan hit a ground rule double which yielded a +0.009 win expectancy. finally, with the metropolitans trailing 3-6 in the 8th inning, with no outs and a man on first base, angel pagan hit into a double play, which yielded in a -0.096 win expectancy. the total win expectancy contributed by angel pagan for the game is therefore + 0.031 - 0.008 + 0.009 - 0.096 = -0.064.

m.e.t.b.o.t. is not programmed to award schaeffer votes for players whose performances yield negative net contributions to win expectancy.

[Benjamin Grimm]

I'll be closing out the September 10 game some time tomorrow (Tuesday)

Link

[Benjamin Grimm]

I'll probably close out all four games against the Phillies this pas weekend sometime on Wednesday.

If not then, then Thursday.

[ashie62]

I think m.e.t.b.o.t. overheated

[Benjamin Grimm]

Voting for the September 16 and 17 games will close on Tuesday.

Only five votes so far for the game of the 17th.

[Guest Rockin' Doc]

I've been away visiting my father for a few days. I will try to vote on the games that I have missed, tomorrow evening.

[Benjamin Grimm]

If anyone is inclined to vote for any of the three games against Washington from this past weekend (September 18, 19, and 20) please try to do so before the end of the day on Tuesday, as I'll be closing them out some time on Wednesday.

Very few votes so far. I know this has been a miserable season, and it's hard to pay too much attention to the Mets these days, but we're almost at the end of the line here. Let's try to hang in there with the Schaefer voting for just a couple of more weeks.

[Guest Rockin' Doc]

In the voting for the Mets 6-5 loss to the Nationals on 9/18, I noticed that Edgy awarded 0.29 Schaefer points to Misch. I don't believe Misch appeared in that game.

In Edgy's defense, Misch may have contributed as much towards the Mets efforts in that game as did some of his teammates that actually played.

[Guest Edgy DC]

I'll fix that. My table went out of alignment when Maine rejoined the team.

If I don't fix it before the tabulation, please disregard my vote.

I'm with the 'b.o.t. on Sully. And I think he's getting screwed on a more recent game where he pinch-walked and scored, but is being left out off of several ballots.

[Benjamin Grimm]

Voting for this game: Schaefer POTG 9/23/09 - Braves 5, Mets 2
will close some time on Monday, September 28.

Voting for the three games in Miami will remain open at least through Wednesday. Saturday's game, if you're so inclined, could use some more votes.

[Benjamin Grimm]

Even though there are only five voters so far, voting for the September 28 game (Monday) in Washington may close some time in the next hour or two. If not, I'll close it tomorrow.

viewtopic.php?f=1&t=12589

[Benjamin Grimm]

Voting will continue through the weekend for the September 30 game ( viewtopic.php?f=1&t=12599 ) but it's seems pretty certain that this month will feature three first-time winners (Player, Pitcher, and Reliever of the Month), and thus, the debut of three all-new retro baseball cards.

All will be revealed early next week.

There will be no POTM for October, but the three games will count towards the annual totals. The Player and Pitcher of the Year were decided a while ago, but the Reliever race is still in doubt. Stay tuned...

And as for whether Schaefer continues into 2010, I suspect it will (as long as the forum is still here, of course.) A lot of the disinterest this year is probably due to overall disinterest in the Mets, so I imagine voting will pick up in April when all is sunny and hopeful. And even if it doesn't, my magic spreadsheet does 95% of the work anyway, so the tallying isn't much of a burden. But I'll make a final decision on 2010 as spring training nears a close.

[Benjamin Grimm]

Voting for all three games of the season-ending series against Houston will close on Wedneday. (Or maybe Thursday. But if you have votes that you want to cast, try to get them in today or tomorrow.)

The final totals for Schaefer Mets Player of the Year will be announced once the Astros games are closed. I don't expect that anyone will be thrilled with the results, but it is what it is.

[Guest Edgy DC]

I've really enjoyed voting this year, I still think peeps have over-rated starting pitchers, perhaps because they get voted first by people, and they get voted on by a consistent game-to-game scale. "Yesterday's pitcher got a 3.4 and today's guy was a little worse so I'll give him a 3.1." But the batters get voted on afterwards on a scale of how many points are left after the pitchers got theirs. So while a pitcher throwing six innings and giving up three runs will often get the same number of points no matter the game score, a batter who goes 2-3 with a walk, a double, and an RBI gets a different number of points from game-to-game depending on the game score.

I'm just speculating the reasons why. I think I've undervalued starting pitchers, on the other hand, as I penalize them as many points for three hitless at-bats and leaving four guys on base as I would penalize a full-time batter, and that can really cut into the points earned by their pitching.

[metsmarathon]

good heavens, i've gotten derailed in my schaeffer voting so easily this year...

[Benjamin Grimm]

I've really enjoyed voting this year[/quote:1ieocd2s]

I also think it's fun. I'm sure that most of the decline in participation in this is because of the awful way the season unfolded; it's much easier to not pay attention in a year like 2009. But I wonder if this thread somehow discourages voting as well. If people are reluctant to vote because their selections might be criticized in this thread.

[Guest Edgy DC]

Honoring disagreement should be the hallmark of a forum like this.

OE:
I'm editing an article RIGHT NOW!!!! about non-profit boards with this paragraph:

Lesson #1 --- Encourage Dissent This is a lesson that took years for me to understand, but it resonates more and more. The best decisions come from a group that has the opportunity to present a diverse set of viewpoints, engage in meaningful debate, and then reach consesus that all members can fully support. But that first step has to be to get different opinions on the table. This is not something that will happen aoutmatically. It has to be encouraged.

[Benjamin Grimm]

I'm not saying there shouldn't be discussion. I'm just wondering if it intimidates some people.

[Guest Edgy DC]

Another quote:

During my first year as chair of our board, we actually gave out a price at our meetings for best dissent.

That goes to Lunchbucket today.

[Guest themetfairy]

I wonder if this thread somehow discourages voting as well. If people are reluctant to vote because their selections might be criticized in this thread.[/quote:2gx3r6oj]

I think that's a valid concern BG.

[metsmarathon]

i like being challenged on my voting. it forces me to relook at my assumptions and formulae, and see if there's something i'm missing and can better quantify. i'm actually surprised i don't get challenged more. could be that nobody cares what i think.

m.e.t.b.o.t. seems to get challenged every now and again, and while he's literally quite the pushover, i think he stands his ground fairly well in the figurative sense. i've worked with the little fellow to incorporate fielding miscues into his voting, and i think we've got an approach for incorporating good defensive plays as well. there will be some spring training tinkering this year i think.

baserunning mistakes and the like may be outside his range, however.

[Guest Edgy DC]

m.e.t.b.o.t. thinks "spring training" is testing the resiliency of his springs under increasing amounts of torsion.

[G-Fafif]

Another quote:

During my first year as chair of our board, we actually gave out a price at our meetings for best dissent.

[Guest Edgy DC]

Thanks. Double checking and it's write/right in the document.