Johann Santana prediction thread

[Benjamin Grimm]

Okay, everyone. Let's pony up and put our money where our mouths are.

What's going to happen with Johann Santana? Speak up!

Here's my own fearless prediction:

The Mets will complete a deal for Johann Santana before the Twins open their spring camp. The deal will include a 72-hour negotiating window, and the Mets will sign him for six guaranteed years, plus two additional option years that will automatically vest based on innings pitched.

Going to Minnesota will be the following players: Pelfrey, Mulvey, Martinez, Sosa, and Chavez.

The deal will be beneficial to the Mets, at least in the short term, as Santana will win 16 games in 2008.

Over the long term, the Twins will be okay too, as some of the young players will prove to be productive big leaguers, while others won't amount to much.


Your turn now. GO!

[Guest AG/DC]

That's a pretty good prediction.

I'm opting out though. I can't get too close to big-time trade talk.

[Farmer Ted]

The Minnesota Newsies starting to latch on hard to this story now.

The Johan Santana trade discussions have reached a quiet but crucial stage. The Twins know what they can get. And they realize none of the packages will appease their fans, who might never forgive them for trading the two-time Cy Young Award winner. For now, the Twins and the three most interested Santana suitors -- the Mets, Yankees and Red Sox -- are regrouping, trying to decide how far beyond their comfort zones they will go to close this deal. The end result might leave some Twins fans gasping for breath. Lately, the Twins have seemed most intrigued with the Mets' offer. The Mets are offering some combination of the following five players: Carlos Gomez, Fernando Martinez, Deolis Guerra, Philip Humber and Kevin Mulvey.

Minneapolis Star Tribune

[Guest AG/DC]

I've been told many times that the Mets don't have the ponies to get this done.

[Fman99]

Ugh, I hate winter. This does not give me my baseball fix. In fact I'm bored stupid by this Santana business.

I predict that blogs and newspapers will beat this story to death like the proverbial dead pony and that come Opening Day, Santana is taking the hill for the Twins and Petey for the Mets.

[Guest AG/DC]

Hey, let's not cross pony metaphors within the thread. I said pony first. My meaning stands.

[Guest John Cougar Lunchbucket]

I'm rooting for Twins to sign Santana. Happy ending for all.

Too scared to make a prediction.

[Guest AG/DC]

Word. And then the Mets rock him for eight runs in four innings in game one of the 2008 World Series.

[DocTee]

Anybody willing to pony up some cash to make this interesting?

[metsmarathon]

i'm kinda hoping fred is...

[Benjamin Grimm]

DocTee wrote: Anybody willing to pony up some cash to make this interesting?

Nobody's even willing to make a prediction when there's nothing at stake.

[Guest d'Kong76]

Can someone look into their crystal ball and see if F-Mart is the next Alex
Rodriguez and not Escobar or Ochoa? Mine's in the shop.

[Fman99]

AG/DC wrote: Hey, let's not cross pony metaphors within the thread. I said pony first. My meaning stands.

I suppose the 'baloney pony' will have to remain in the barn on this one then.

[metirish]

Twins will resign Santana to a 6 year $1120 millon cantract.

[Frayed Knot]

metirish wrote: Twins will resign Santana to a 6 year $1120 millon cantract.

I know MLB is making a lot of money these day, but $186 million per year sounds kinda high to me.


I'm of the mind that Santana will be traded prior to the start of ST and I'm increasingly convinced it will be to the Mets.
Hopefully they'll do a deal because it's a good one rather than out of desperation.

[Gwreck]

Twins will hold firm on their demands (ie. when Washington was trying to trade Soriano) and nobody will bite.

Santana will finish out the 2008 season with Minnesota with Cy Young-caliber numbers and become a free agent, and then get several bucketloads of money from either the Mets, Yankees or Red Sox for a long term contract.

[smg58]

Gwreck wrote: Twins will hold firm on their demands (ie. when Washington was trying to trade Soriano) and nobody will bite. Santana will finish out the 2008 season with Minnesota with Cy Young-caliber numbers and become a free agent, and then get several bucketloads of money from either the Mets, Yankees or Red Sox for a long term contract.

I'm predicting this, and rooting for it too. It won't help the Mets this year, but if Santana and Sabathia both hit the market the Mets should be able to land one and maintain an intact farm system.

[Willets Point]

The Yankees will trade Kyle Farnsworth for Santana. Santana will win 28 games and the Cy Young Award as the Yankees go 121-41 and sweep through the playoffs. Santana will be 4-0 in the postseason and will be first to hoist the Yankees 27th World Series trophy in victory.

[Gwreck]

At a certain point, that stuff stops being clever and just becomes annoying.

[Benjamin Grimm]

Jon Heyman, on SI.com, is saying that the Twins like Gomez more than they like Martinez.

[nymr83]

Benjamin Grimm wrote: Jon Heyman, on SI.com, is saying that the Twins like Gomez more than they like Martinez.

good, they can have him. with chavez signed for 2 more years now Gomez's role isn't going to be much anyway.

[Guest AG/DC]

And he's never going to be better than Jason Tyner.

[Guest AG/DC]

Twins sign Justin Morneau for six years, $80 million.

how this effects Santana's status is, well, fun to speculate.

[Benjamin Grimm]

Yes. Does it mean that the Twins are spending?

Or that they've spent?

[Guest AG/DC]

I like how anti-revenue-sharing forces (Yankee fans, mostly) continue to argue that susidized teams eat the subsidy.

[Edgy MD]

Newsday is now describing a Met-Twin deal for Santana as "likely" and "within 10 days."

[MFS62]

If the rumors are correct, and the Mets will be giving up several young starters in the deal, look for them to sign a veteran innings eater before the Santana deal goes down.

Later

[Benjamin Grimm]

Here's the key paragraph from that article by Ken Davidoff:

The Mets are willing to give up multiple prospects for Santana, who wants a six-year, $150-million extension in return for waiving his no-trade clause. To date, however, the Mets have not relented on giving up minor-league outfielder Fernando Martinez in addition to outfielder Carlos Gomez and pitchers Deolis Guerra, Phil Humber and Kevin Mulvey.

Those are pretty much the same names we heard a few weeks ago.

What Davidoff doesn't make clear is which side is expected to bend in the next ten days. Do the Mets include Martinez, or will the Twins withdraw their insistence that he be included?

I'm not crazy about losing Guerra and Mulvey at once, but I probably would have said the same thing a dozen years ago about Isringhausen and Pulsipher. At least they'd be keeping Pelfrey, Maine, and Perez, so the Mets wouldn't be short on young pitching.

But if Gomez and Martinez follow Milledge out of town, the Mets are short on young outfielders. Is Endy the fourth outfielder in 2008, and Pagan the fifth? Are there any free-agent replacements for Alou who will be available next winter? And does that leave them deep enough for this season? I'm hoping they can avoid a situation where this year's version of Michael Tucker or Ben Johnson is getting a lot of outfield starts in 2008.

[Fman99]

Benjamin Grimm wrote: Here's the key paragraph from that article by Ken Davidoff: The Mets are willing to give up multiple prospects for Santana, who wants a six-year, $150-million extension in return for waiving his no-trade clause. To date, however, the Mets have not relented on giving up minor-league outfielder Fernando Martinez in addition to outfielder Carlos Gomez and pitchers Deolis Guerra, Phil Humber and Kevin Mulvey. Those are pretty much the same names we heard a few weeks ago. What Davidoff doesn't make clear is which side is expected to bend in the next ten days. Do the Mets include Martinez, or will the Twins withdraw their insistence that he be included? I'm not crazy about losing Guerra and Mulvey at once, but I probably would have said the same thing a dozen years ago about Isringhausen and Pulsipher. At least they'd be keeping Pelfrey, Maine, and Perez, so the Mets wouldn't be short on young pitching. But if Gomez and Martinez follow Milledge out of town, the Mets are short on young outfielders. Is Endy the fourth outfielder in 2008, and Pagan the fifth? Are there any free-agent replacements for Alou who will be available next winter? And does that leave them deep enough for this season? I'm hoping they can avoid a situation where this year's version of Michael Tucker or Ben Johnson is getting a lot of outfield starts in 2008.

Seriously. Someone get "Ice" Williams on the phone, just in case.

[Edgy MD]

Seems to me that we're as likely to soon enough need those pitchers as those hitters.

More, I think.