Standings

Frayed Knot · August 19, 2005

Post-Season Odds - at least according to the folks at [u:694d8f2bc5]Baseball Prospectus[/u:694d8f2bc5] who "played"
the remaining schedule 1 million times and tabulated the outcomes.

[url]http://www.baseballprospectus.com/statistics/ps_odds.php[/url]

NL WC Odds:
Astros - 29.5%
Phillies - 19.5%
Marlins - 14.5%
Mets - 11.0%
Braves - 11.0% (they have a 78% chance of winning the division)
Nationals - 9.0%

Additionally, the Mets have a 4% chance of winning the division.

StL missed the playoffs in ~ 528 of those 1,000,000 tries

Current AL WC Odds:
Indians - 28.0% (+ 4.9% of winning the division)
Yanquis - 18.0% (+ 18.9%)
A's - 15.0% (+ 16.0%)
Angels - 12.1% (+ 12.1%)

August 19, 2005

A total shot then of 14.56%. for the Mets.

Benjamin Grimm · August 19, 2005

So the Mets have a 15% chance of making the playoffs, and the Yankees have a 63% chance of missing.

That means there's a little better than 9% chance that the Mets are in and the Yankees out.

Interesting. I'll be curious to see how those numbers change in the next couple of weeks. Is this something they plan to update?

Frayed Knot · August 19, 2005

I believe that site will update those numbers on at least a
semi-regular basis.

August 20, 2005

I'm supposed to update every series, but it's more fun to do after a win.

Florida, meanwhile has leapfrogged into second in both races.

Chicago trying desperately to sneak back in. Watch 'em.

Pl.	East	W	L	PCT	GB	NGB	HOME	ROAD	EAST	CENT	WEST	INTER	L10	STRK
1	Atlanta	69	53	.566	-	-	40-20	29-33	29-20	22-11	11-14	7-8	5-5	L2
T2	Florida	64	57	.529	4.5	4.5	36-27	28-30	23-25	15-15	16-12	10-5	7-3	W3
T2	Philadelphia	65	58	.528	4.5	4.5	38-28	27-30	22-28	17-16	19-6	7-8	6-4	L2
4	Washington	64	58	.525	5.0	6.0	34-22	30-36	21-26	17-16	14-10	12-6	5-5	L1
5	New York	62	59	.512	6.5	12.0	39-24	23-35	26-22	19-18	12-9	5-10	5-5	W1

Pl.	Wild Card	W	L	PCT	GB	NGB	HOME	ROAD	EAST	CENT	WEST	INTER	L10	STRK
1	Houston	65	57	.533	-	-	41-21	24-36	15-14	26-26	17-9	7-8	5-5	W1
T2	Florida	64	57	.529	0.5	0.5	36-27	28-30	23-25	15-15	16-12	10-5	7-3	W3
T2	Philadelphia	65	58	.528	0.5	0.5	38-28	27-30	22-28	17-16	19-6	7-8	6-4	L2
4	Washington	64	58	.525	1.0	2.0	34-22	30-36	21-26	17-16	14-10	12-6	5-5	L1
5	New York	62	59	.512	2.5	5.0	39-24	23-35	26-22	19-18	12-9	5-10	5-5	W1
6	Chicago	60	62	.492	5.0	20.5	30-30	30-32	9-19	30-24	15-10	6-9	6-4	W3
7	Milwaukee	60	63	.488	5.5	23.5	31-25	29-38	15-15	24-29	13-12	8-7	4-6	L1
8	Arizona	57	66	.463	8.5	44.5	27-32	30-34	9-16	13-18	27-22	8-10	3-7	L1
9	Cincinnati	56	66	.459	9.0	48.0	35-32	21-34	12-14	21-29	16-15	7-8	6-4	W2
10	Los Angeles	55	66	.455	9.5	53.0	29-30	26-36	12-16	13-16	25-21	5-13	5-5	L1
11	San Francisco	53	68	.438	11.5	73.0	25-33	28.35	6-15	18-17	23-24	6-12	5-5	L2
12	Pittsburgh	53	69	.434	12.0	78.5	26-31	27-38	14-17	18-31	16-14	5-7	6-4	W2
13	Colorado	45	77	.369	20.0	174.5	31-33	14-42	11-13	13-26	15-27	6-9	2-8	L3

Elster88 · August 20, 2005

Edgy DC wrote:
I'm supposed to update every series, but it's more fun to do after a win.

Oh sure. I go to the trouble of bumping a couple of days ago and get bitch slapped, and now you change your mind.

j/k.

Valadius · August 20, 2005

Atlanta, Florida, Houston, and Washington (thankfully) lose.

Metsies and Phillies win.

We're gaining ground, folks.

August 20, 2005

Slowly but surely, now 2 games back. Though it would be nice to try to get a win by more than one run, I wont push my luck

August 20, 2005

Philadelphia is now your wildcard leader. Mets are two games back and five games back net behind four teams.

I'm leaving town tomorry. I'll try and do one more update afore's I go.

Anybody else willing to take over, be my guestical.

August 20, 2005

It's a half game between each of the wild card teams from the Phils down to the Mets.

Valadius · August 21, 2005

How bout them apples? Half-games through- it's certainly not unthinkable, but we gotta do some leapfrog.

Elster88 · August 22, 2005

>>>Anybody else willing to take over, be my guestical.

Will do. I like charts. I'm being quite a thief here. Going to blue to show this is a pirated chart and not an original.

Someone let me know if I screwed up the net games back feature.

Only Atlanta and New York amongst the East teams have above .500 records against the East.

PL.	East	W	L	PCT	GB	NGB	HOME	ROAD	EAST	CENT	WEST	INTER	L10	STRK
1	Atlanta	70	54	.565	-	-	41-21	29-33	29-20	22-11	12-15	7-8	4-6	W1
2	Philadelphia	67	58	.536	3.5	3.5	40-28	27-30	22-28	19-16	19-6	7-8	7-3	W2
3	Florida	65	58	.528	4.5	5.5	37-28	28-30	23-25	15-15	17-13	10-5	6-4	W1
4	Washington	65	59	.524	5.0	7	34-22	31-37	22-27	17-16	14-10	12-6	6-4	W1
5	New York	63	60	.512	6.5	13	40-25	23-35	27-23	19-18	12-9	5-10	5-5	L1

PL.	Wildcard	W	L	PCT	GB	NGB	HOME	ROAD	EAST	CENT	WEST	INTER	L10	STRK
1	Philadelphia	67	58	.536	-	-	40-28	27-30	22-28	19-16	19-6	7-8	7-3	W2
2	Houston	66	58	.532	0.5	0.5	42-22	24-36	15-14	27-27	17-9	7-8	4-6	W1
3	Florida	65	58	.528	1.0	1.5	37-28	28-30	23-25	15-15	17-13	10-5	6-4	W1
4	Washington	65	59	.524	1.5	3	34-22	31-37	22-27	17-16	14-10	12-6	6-4	W1
5	New York	63	60	.512	3.0	9	40-25	23-35	27-23	19-18	12-9	5-10	5-5	L1
6	Milwaukee	61	64	.488	6.0	24	31-25	30-39	15-15	25-30	13-12	8-7	5-5	L1
7	Chicago	60	64	.484	6.5	27	30-30	30-34	9-19	30-24	15-12	6-9	6-4	L2
8	Arizona	58	67	.464	9.0	44.5	27-32	31-35	9-16	14-19	27-22	8-10	4-6	L1
9	Cincinnati	57	67	.460	9.5	48.5	36-33	21-34	12-14	21-29	17-16	7-8	5-5	W1
10	Los Angeles	56	67	.455	10.0	53	29-30	27-37	13-17	13-16	25-21	5-13	6-4	L1
11	San Francisco	54	69	.439	12.0	73	25-33	29-36	6-15	19-18	23-24	6-12	5-5	W1
12	Pittsburgh	53	71	.427	13.5	89.5	26-31	27-40	14-19	18-31	16-14	5-7	5-5	L2
13	Colorado	47	77	.379	19.5	161.5	33-35	14-42	11-13	15-28	15-27	6-9	3-7	W2

Valadius · August 22, 2005

So basically we shot ourselves in the foot in interleague play, besides our much-maligned road woes. We're entering make-or-break time here, folks- either we take some damn road games, or we resign ourselves to another missed opportunity.

Elster88 · August 22, 2005

Valadius wrote:
So basically we shot ourselves in the foot in interleague play, besides our much-maligned road woes.

Combine the two. 1-5 at Oakland and Seattle.

HahnSolo · August 22, 2005

One thing that stands out from another team: The Houston road record is at Met-like levels, but I don't much hear the same commentary from the media that they can't play on the road.

And I should know this, but why do the Nationals have 18 interleague games and the rest of the NL East only 15?

nymr83 · August 22, 2005

]One thing that stands out from another team: The Houston road record is at Met-like levels, but I don't much hear the same commentary from the media that they can't play on the road.

Because they are winning. Wait until 2 of the NL East teams are ahead of them in the standings and we'll see if the media still isn't bashing their road record. Secondly, it's possible they have improved on the road in the 2nd half, they have certainly improved overall. The Mets on the other hand have had huge road meltdowns lately. And last, but certainly not least, a team playing in NYC will inevitably receive extra media attention and praise/criticism.

seawolf17 · August 22, 2005

Nymr, I forgot to thank you... I'm honored to have been quoted in your sig.

Valadius · August 22, 2005

There are 16 teams in the NL. There are 14 teams in the AL. While 14 NL teams play 14 AL teams, 2 NL teams face each other. I vaguely remember facing Philly during interleague play, and I'm assuming the other teams had an NL series with someone else.

Elster88 · August 23, 2005

PL.	East	W	L	PCT	GB	NGB	HOME	ROAD	EAST	CENT	WEST	INTER	L10	STRK
1	Atlanta	71	54	.568	-	-	41-21	30-33	29-20	23-11	12-15	7-8	5-5	W2
2	Florida	66	58	.532	4.5	4.5	38-28	28-30	23-25	15-15	18-13	10-5	7-3	W2
3	Philadelphia	67	59	.532	4.5	4.5	40-28	27-31	22-28	19-16	19-7	7-8	6-4	L1
4	Washington	65	59	.524	5.5	7.5	34-22	31-37	22-27	17-16	14-10	12-6	6-4	W1
5	New York	64	60	.516	6.5	11.5	40-25	24-35	27-23	19-18	13-9	5-10	6-4	W1

PL.	Wildcard	W	L	PCT	GB	NGB	HOME	ROAD	EAST	CENT	WEST	INTER	L10	STRK
1	Houston	67	58	.536	-	-	42-22	25-36	15-14	27-27	18-9	7-8	4-6	W2
2	Florida	66	58	.532	0.5	0.5	38-28	28-30	23-25	15-15	18-13	10-5	7-3	W2
3	Philadelphia	67	59	.532	0.5	0.5	40-28	27-31	22-28	19-16	19-7	7-8	6-4	L1
4	Washington	65	59	.524	1.5	3.5	34-22	31-37	22-27	17-16	14-10	12-6	6-4	W1
5	New York	64	60	.516	2.5	7.5	40-25	24-35	27-23	19-18	13-9	5-10	6-4	W1
6	Milwaukee	61	64	.488	6.0	25	31-25	30-39	15-15	25-30	13-12	8-7	5-5	L1
7	Chicago	60	65	.480	7.0	31	30-31	30-34	9-20	30-24	15-12	6-9	5-5	L3

Elster88 · August 23, 2005

Wildcard	L
Houston	58
Florida	58
Philadelphia	59
Washington	59
New York	60

Elster88 · August 24, 2005

Tied Washington!

PL.	East	W	L	PCT	GB	NGB	HOME	ROAD	EAST	CENT	WEST	INTER	L10	STRK
1	Atlanta	71	55	.563	-	-	41-21	30-34	29-20	23-12	12-15	7-8	5-5	L1
2	Philadelphia	68	59	.535	3.5	3.5	40-28	28-31	22-28	19-16	20-7	7-8	6-4	W1
3	Florida	66	59	.528	4.5	5.5	38-28	28-31	23-25	15-16	18-13	10-5	7-3	L1
T-4	New York	65	60	.520	5.5	8.5	40-25	25-35	27-23	19-18	14-9	5-10	7-3	W2
T-4	Washington	65	60	.520	5.5	8.5	34-23	31-37	22-27	17-17	14-10	12-6	5-5	L1

PL.	Wildcard	W	L	PCT	GB	NGB	HOME	ROAD	EAST	CENT	WEST	INTER	L10	STRK
1	Philadelphia	68	59	.535	-	-	40-28	28-31	22-28	19-16	20-7	7-8	6-4	W1
2	Houston	67	59	.532	0.5	0.5	42-22	25-37	15-14	27-27	18-10	7-8	4-6	L1
3	Florida	66	59	.528	1.0	1.5	38-28	28-31	23-25	15-16	18-13	10-5	7-3	L1
T-4	New York	65	60	.520	2.0	4.5	40-25	25-35	27-23	19-18	14-9	5-10	7-3	W2
T-4	Washington	65	60	.520	2.0	4.5	34-23	31-37	22-27	17-17	14-10	12-6	5-5	L1
6	Milwaukee	62	64	.492	5.5	22	32-25	30-39	16-15	25-30	13-12	8-7	6-4	W1
7	Chicago	61	65	.484	6.5	28	31-31	30-34	10-20	30-24	15-12	6-9	5-5	W1

Elster88 · August 24, 2005

One loss seperating the five teams.

Wildcard	L
Philadelphia	59
Houston	59
Florida	59
New York	60
Washington	60

Elster88 · August 25, 2005

PL.	East	W	L	PCT	GB	NGB	HOME	ROAD	EAST	CENT	WEST	INTER	L10	STRK
1	Atlanta	72	55	.567	-	-	41-21	31-34	29-20	24-12	12-15	7-8	5-5	W1
2	Philadelphia	69	59	.539	3.5	3.5	40-28	29-31	22-28	19-16	21-7	7-8	6-4	W2
T-3	Florida	66	60	.524	5.5	7.5	38-28	28-32	23-25	15-17	18-13	10-5	6-4	L2
T-3	New York	66	60	.524	5.5	7.5	40-25	26-35	27-23	19-18	15-9	5-10	7-3	W3
T-3	Washington	66	60	.524	5.5	7.5	35-23	31-37	22-27	18-17	14-10	12-6	5-5	W1

PL.	Wildcard	W	L	PCT	GB	NGB	HOME	ROAD	EAST	CENT	WEST	INTER	L10	STRK
1	Philadelphia	69	59	.539	-	-	40-28	29-31	22-28	19-16	21-7	7-8	6-4	W2
2	Houston	67	60	.528	1.5	1.5	42-22	25-38	15-14	27-27	18-11	7-8	4-6	L2
T-3	Florida	66	60	.524	2.0	2.5	38-28	28-32	23-25	15-17	18-13	10-5	6-4	L2
T-3	New York	66	60	.524	2.0	2.5	40-25	26-35	27-23	19-18	15-9	5-10	7-3	W3
T-3	Washington	66	60	.524	2.0	2.5	35-23	31-37	22-27	18-17	14-10	12-6	5-5	W1
6	Milwaukee	63	64	.496	5.5	20	33-25	30-39	17-15	25-30	13-12	8-7	7-3	W2

August 25, 2005

Updated Playoff Odds Report from BP

We move all the way to 33.13833%, better than every other team who's NOT leading their division.

Cards at 99.98
Padres at 90.79
Braves at 86.39
Phillies at 30.59
Astros at 25.36
Marlins at 13.63
Nats at 8.36

Folks, what this tells me is that we don't need to keep being heroic, just play the way we've played all season (minus the first 5) and limit our mistakes.

I REALLY hope that our boys come out patient tonight, like they did last night. Work the pitcher, work the count, stay in your game, and get us a win. We all know that whatever his stuff is like tonight, Petey's going to be a gamer, so let's not be overagressive, thinking we own the place . . .

I hat late-night starts. This is going to be a long wait.

August 25, 2005

These late-nite games are killing me too (I passed out of exhaustion in the 8th last night) but Thursday Gay Dames are especially tough on my work sked.

I'm taking tommorry off, tho, and plan to be loaded up on caffeine, beer and maybe crack for 2-nite's game.

Centerfield · August 25, 2005

I...plan to be loaded up on caffeine, beer and maybe crack for 2-nite's game.

Cool. Say hi to Dwight...tell him some guys stopped by earlier looking for him.

duan · August 25, 2005

The key is the Astros. We play interdivisional stuff virtually all september (except what might be a rather painful trip to St. Louis and the hosting of the Rockies for the final series.

The Astros are the only team we can't help ourselves against.

Lots a big games coming up.

Centerfield · August 25, 2005

That three city road trip to St. Louis, Atlanta and Florida is going to be a doozy. Those ten games will make or break or season.

Or not effect it very much at all.

metirish · August 25, 2005

It's just great though to be playing August games that count, the last three have been horrible.

metirish · August 25, 2005

It's just great though to be playing August games that count, the last three have been horrible.

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