Standings

[Guest Rockin' Doc]

metirish - "It's just great though to be playing August games that count, the last three have been horrible."

I was rather fond of the last 3 games. A road sweep is always sweet. The last 3 seasons have definitely sucked.

Dont mind me, I'm just trying to live up to the CPF's collective reputation as a bunch of smart ass, elitist, pricks.

[Elster88]

So, how does everyone feel this morning?

PL.	East	W	L	PCT	GB	NGB	HOME	ROAD	EAST	CENT	WEST	INTER	L10	STRK
1	Atlanta	72	55	.567	-	-	41-21	31-34	29-20	24-12	12-15	7-8	5-5	W1
2	Philadelphia	69	59	.539	3.5	3.5	40-28	29-31	22-28	19-16	21-7	7-8	6-4	W2
T-3	Florida	67	60	.528	5.0	6.5	38-28	29-32	23-25	16-17	18-13	10-5	6-4	W1
T-3	New York	67	60	.528	5.0	6.5	40-25	27-35	27-23	19-18	16-9	5-10	8-2	W4
5	Washington	66	61	.520	6.0	10.5	35-24	31-37	22-27	18-18	14-10	12-6	4-6	L1

PL.	Wildcard	W	L	PCT	GB	NGB	HOME	ROAD	EAST	CENT	WEST	INTER	L10	STRK
1	Philadelphia	69	59	.539	-	-	40-28	29-31	22-28	19-16	21-7	7-8	6-4	W2
T-2	Florida	67	60	.528	1.5	1.5	38-28	29-32	23-25	16-17	18-13	10-5	6-4	W1
T-2	Houston	67	60	.528	1.5	1.5	42-22	25-38	15-14	27-27	18-11	7-8	4-6	L2
T-2	New York	67	60	.528	1.5	1.5	40-25	27-35	27-23	19-18	16-9	5-10	8-2	W4
5	Washington	66	61	.520	2.5	5.5	35-24	31-37	22-27	18-18	14-10	12-6	4-6	L1
6	Milwaukee	63	65	.492	6.0	23	33-26	30-39	17-16	25-30	13-12	8-7	6-4	L1

[Benjamin Grimm]

I feel like I'm being deluded into thinking that the Mets have a chance at the playoffs, even though they're now within 1.5 games of a spot, and have fewer teams to pass. I feel like it's all a scam to keep me spending money to see aged veterans on a team that, even if it gets to the playoffs, has no chance of winning. And even if it wins the World Series, has no chance of repeating for the next seven years.

[seawolf17]

I feel two things...

One, I feel like you should have put the Mets in the second row, so it looked more impressive.

Two, I feel like a dumbass, because I was just absent-mindedly scanning the columns in the wild card standings, and I saw that two teams had played WAY more games against the NL Central than anybody else, and I thought "Hey, that's strange."

Until I looked to the left. Duh.

[Guest Rotblatt]

I feel suspicious.

I mean, we're playing pretty good, fundamental baseball and aren't making too many mistakes right now, but I can't help but wonder when the bottom's going to drop out.

[Guest ABG]

Rotblatt wrote: I feel suspicious. I mean, we're playing pretty good, fundamental baseball and aren't making too many mistakes right now, but I can't help but wonder when the bottom's going to drop out.

I'm not quiiiite at the point of no return with this team, but I'm rapidly approaching it. 2 outta 3 this weekend, and I'm sunk.

[Elster88]

seawolf17 wrote: One, I feel like you should have put the Mets in the second row, so it looked more impressive.

Alpha-order for ties. They'll have to earn that second row by getting sole possession. Or by changing the team name to the Flushing Mets.

[Guest Rotblatt]

Updated Playoff Odds Report from BP

With last night's victory & Houston's loss, we now have better odds to win the wild card than Houston does (24.71653% to 23.60552%)--which we did NOT yesterday, a fact which I omitted from my post. We have a 13.89794% shot to win our division as well, giving us a 38.61447 % shot at the playoffs now.

According to the report, the Phillies are our toughest competitor (29.61984% at playoffs).

1. Cards: 99.99
2. Padres: 92.90
3. Braves: 85.83
4. Mets: 38.61
5. Phillies: 29.62
6. Astros: 23.73
7. Marlins: 15.02
8. Nats: 5.43
. . .
12. Giants: 0.90631

In that other league, the Yankees have a better shot at the division (31%) than they do the wild card (18%), based on the stength of the Indians (41% shot at WC). Despite their struggles, the Sox still have a 68% shot at the division. Oakland gets a 30.8% shot at their division and only a 10% shot at the WC.

I can't remember if this was mentioned already, but BP gets these results by plugging the current record, RS & RA for every team in the league, then simulates the rest of the season a million times.

Neat, huh?

[Guest Johnny Dickshot]

Even cooler is seeing the odds rise or fall by 10% or more after a single day. I forget what day it was where I was arguing with Sal on this but less than a week ago, the Met odds were 17% playoffs, <10% for the division IIRC.

[Farmer Ted]

Mental note...while in Vegas in January I put 20 bucks down on 8-1 odds for the Mets to win it all. I could be a lucky weiner.

[Willets Point]

Odds don't mean shit. Only wins count.

[Farmer Ted]

Odds are that you'll never get that photo from last year's Wrigley game if you can't swing me an email address.

[Elster88]

Every team in this post won, except the Braves.

PL.	East	W	L	PCT	GB	NGB	HOME	ROAD	EAST	CENT	WEST	INTER	L10	STRK
1	Atlanta	72	56	.563	-	-	41-21	31-35	29-20	24-13	12-15	7-8	4-6	L1
2	Philadelphia	70	59	.543	2.5	2.5	40-28	30-31	22-28	19-16	22-7	7-8	6-4	W3
3	Florida	68	60	.531	4.0	5.5	38-28	30-32	23-25	17-17	18-13	10-5	7-3	W2
4	New York	68	60	.531	4.0	5.5	40-25	28-35	27-23	19-18	17-9	5-10	8-2	W5
5	Washington	67	61	.523	5.0	9.5	36-24	31-37	22-27	19-18	14-10	12-6	4-6	W1

PL.	Wildcard	W	L	PCT	GB	NGB	HOME	ROAD	EAST	CENT	WEST	INTER	L10	STRK
1	Philadelphia	70	59	.543	-	-	40-28	30-31	22-28	19-16	22-7	7-8	6-4	W3
T-2	Florida	68	60	.531	1.5	1.5	38-28	30-32	23-25	17-17	18-13	10-5	7-3	W2
T-2	Houston	68	60	.531	1.5	1.5	42-22	26-38	15-14	27-27	19-11	7-8	5-5	W1
T-2	New York	68	60	.531	1.5	1.5	40-25	28-35	27-23	19-18	17-9	5-10	8-2	W5
5	Washington	67	61	.523	2.5	5.5	36-24	31-37	22-27	19-18	14-10	12-6	4-6	W1
6	Milwaukee	64	65	.496	6.0	23	34-26	30-39	18-16	25-30	13-12	8-7	7-3	W1

[Guest Edgy DC]

Great job in this thread.

I hope these guys are going after Atlanta. All those division games in September are going to be brutal and bloody. Hearts will be breaking on the Eastern Seaboard every night.

[Elster88]

Winning the division would certainly be nice, but let's not forget playoffs is playoffs.

[Benjamin Grimm]

One advantage of winning the division is, if the wild card also comes from the East, the Mets would get a first round against San Diego, with home field advantage.

[Guest Johnny Dickshot]

Our playoff odds increased by 1% -- we're now a 39% playoff team (22.4% WC + 16.8% division).

The Nats, tho only 1 loss off the pace, have only a 7% playoff shot , BP sez.

Astros 24.5% lead the WC probabilty.

[Elster88]

PL.	East	W	L	PCT	GB	NGB	HOME	ROAD	EAST	CENT	WEST	INTER	L10	STRK
1	Atlanta	74	56	.569	-	-	41-21	33-35	29-20	26-13	12-15	7-8	5-5	W2
2	Philadelphia	70	61	.534	4.5	4.5	40-28	30-33	22-28	19-16	22-9	7-8	5-5	L2
3	Florida	69	61	.531	5.0	5.5	38-28	31-33	23-25	18-18	18-13	10-5	6-4	L1
4	New York	68	62	.523	6.0	8.5	40-25	28-37	27-23	19-18	17-11	5-10	7-3	L2
5	Washington	67	63	.515	7.0	12.5	36-26	31-37	22-27	19-20	14-10	12-6	4-6	L2

PL.	Wildcard	W	L	PCT	GB	NGB	HOME	ROAD	EAST	CENT	WEST	INTER	L10	STRK
1	Philadelphia	70	61	.534	-	-	40-28	30-33	22-28	19-16	22-9	7-8	5-5	L2
2	Florida	69	61	.531	0.5	0.5	38-28	31-33	23-25	18-18	18-13	10-5	6-4	L1
T-3	Houston	68	62	.523	1.5	2.5	42-22	26-40	15-14	27-27	19-13	7-8	4-6	L2
T-3	New York	68	62	.523	1.5	2.5	40-25	28-37	27-23	19-18	17-11	5-10	7-3	L2
5	Washington	67	63	.515	2.5	6.5	36-26	31-37	22-27	19-20	14-10	12-6	4-6	L2
6	Milwaukee	64	67	.489	6.0	24	34-28	30-39	18-18	25-30	13-12	8-7	5-5	L2

[Elster88]

Find the standings as of end of day 8/29/05 here:
[url]http://cybermessageboard.ehost.com/getalife/viewtopic.php?t=1104[/url]

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This post was made under the posting designation 170) Barry Lyons

[Guest Edgy DC]

My "net games back" era is drawing to a close.

[Guest Rotblatt]

We remain the odds-on favorite to reach the wild card, according to BP:

25.45862% versus 23.10408% for the Phillies. The Astros check in at 20.41308.

According to their simulations, the average WC winner in the NL won 88 games in total. In order to reach that, we'll have to win 62.5% of our remaining games. So far this August, we've won 60% of our games.

[Benjamin Grimm]

I'm looking forward to seeing what the odds will be on Friday morning, after the three games with the Phillies.

They could be a lot better, or a lot worse.

A three-game sweep from the Mets, and September could be a lot of fun.

[Elster88]

The SBS is going to give you the beating of your life.

I myself am not part of that organization, but I would be wary if I were you.
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This post was made under the posting designation 170) Barry Lyons

[Benjamin Grimm]

I have a thick orange hide.

[Willets Point]

Yancy Street Gang wrote: A three-game sweep from the Mets, and September could be a lot of fun.

I remember the Septembers of 1998, 1999, 2000. & 2001 when the Mets started the month flying high, but September ended up being unfun (well 99 & 00, all was well that ended well, but the Mets had divisional title hopes crashed in those years' Septembers).

[Elster88]

We're also not really flying high right now.

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This post was made under the posting designation 170) Barry Lyons

[Willets Point]

Well I was going on Yancy's theory of a possible three-game sweep of the Phillies leading us into September. I think that would mean the Mets have won 9 of their last 12 games which is a pretty good way to start the last month of a season but no guarantee that the last month will continue that success.

[Elster88]

Wildcard	L
Philadelphia	61
Florida	62
Houston	62
New York	62
Washington	63

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This post was made under the posting designation 170) Barry Lyons

[Benjamin Grimm]

I've never understood the conventional wisdom that the loss column is more important than the win column.

True, a loss is a game that you can't go back and win.

But a win is a game that you can't go back and lose.

[Elster88]

I look at it this way. If we're down one win, and tied in the loss column, we can win the game ourselves and be tied. If we have one extra loss, and are tied in the win column, the other team has to lose. The whole "controlling your own destiny" deal.

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This was the last post Elster88 made under the posting designation 170) Barry Lyons. Goodbye, Barry Hairline!