Tracking the Offense

[Frayed Knot]

This might have been better had I started this right at the nadir of our season at the end of that 12-game losing streak (at least we hope that was the low point). But it didn’t occur to me until week or so ago so this is a ‘joined in progress’ project.

“It’s gotta get better” is a phrase we’ve used early in this season to describe the lack of hitting and scoring. Towards that end I’m going to try and check in on this on a semi-regular basis so we can see how much things are ‘regressing to the mean’ or if that actually happens at all.

So two charts here: one tracking our ranking among all 30 ML teams in the various offensive stats, and then the raw numbers in those same metrics compared to league average. The data shown is for the season-to-date games including those on the date listed. Not a lot of change so far but you don’t expect there to be much after only nine days.

I’m aiming to update this thing twice a month, hopefully on or around the 15th & 30th.

 

 

 

 

 

Dang it! The subject heading was supposed to read NOffense but it auto-corrected on me and now I can't edit. 

[Centerfield]

Despite the seeming resurgence we’ve had recently, the Mets remain last in MLB in OPS

[duan]

yes - but in terms of runs there's been a massive difference - our average run per game on 30th April was 3.4 and we were in 29th place - now it's 4.08 and in 23rd. 

and while we are still lowest in OPS that is now a .003 gap to 29th (SDP) .046 to 15th. Whereas on April 30th the gap to 29th (SFG) was .024 and .076 to 15th.  

(there were times then the gaps were bigger but 30th April felt like the right place) 

 

[Frayed Knot]

Yes, the RS/G figure took the biggest jump, even enough to counteract that pathetic three games/two runs combined series in Miami.

 

And some of the other raw numbers are up a shade too even if only enough to where they're now closer to jumping a rank or two if improvement continues. Until then, baby steps.

[Centerfield]

Still DFL in OPS in all of MLB.

 

[Frayed Knot]

Yup, although just 4 points behind the 29th place Padres and 19 in back of the surprisingly bad 28th place Phillies who have Harper, Schwarber and Marsh with OPS+'s of 137, 154 & 125, AND who have all played virtually every game this season [59, 56, 54]*.  Contrast that with Soto/Lindor who have combined to play a mere 66 including just nine games in which both appeared.

 

* But, man, the rest of that lineup is putrid. Get a load of Realmuto [OPS+ = 65], Stott [76], Trea Turner [71], and Alex Bohm [67]

Y'know, jus' sayin'

[Frayed Knot]

Two days late with this update -- HOW DID YOU GUYS ALLOW THIS TO HAPPEN?!?!?! -- but here it is.

So we see some progress for the front half of June but still just in small increments. This pretty much synchs up with the one-step-forward/one-step-back nature we've seen from series to series for much of the season.

 

[Centerfield]

Still shitty. 

[Edgy MD]

Small increments are the only ones you are going to see at this juncture.

[Centerfield]

Yes. But the Mets have a .731 OPS for June. Good for 20th in  MLB. While that is better than dead Fucking last it’s no where near good enough for a sustained run. 

[Centerfield]

Deeper dive. The Mets OPS was .681 in May. Good for 19th in MLB. So the Mets haven’t been the worst scoring team in baseball for a while, it’s just that their performance in April was so bad (last by a lot) that they’ve remained at or near the cellar since. 

Let’s assume that Lindor returns and no one else gets hurt (a totally safe assumption, I know).  Maybe that boosts the offense to league average?  Couple that with a pitching staff ranked 9th in ERA and maybe you get a team that performs slightly better than .500.  And that’s not good enough to dig out of the hole they are in.  
 

Still.  Baseball is weird and you never know.  

 

 

 

[Benjamin Grimm]

12 minutes ago, Centerfield said:

Still.  Baseball is weird and you never know.  

 

 

 

That's what we have to hang our hats on.

[seawolf17]

And realistically, because almost everyone makes the playoffs, as putrid as this team has been, they're still only five and a half out of a spot. I mean, yes, they have to jump over a lot of teams, but it's not mathematically impossible.

[Edgy MD]

If they catch the Reds, it will feel to me like they caught the Braves.

If reach .500, it will feel like the pennant.