What’s the Plan?

[Edgy MD]

I think the important thing is that the hinge arrives for my oven door. I think once I get that fixed, everything will start to become clearer.

[rchurch314]

It's been a while since I felt like the Mets had a "plan" sturdy enough to last a bump or two. Vibes has seemingly driven most of the decision making, in-season and out, for a bit now.

I think they're doing the classic, not exclusive to Sandy Alderson but certainly he's a proponent, move of just evaluating each position or player individually and just shrugging if someone else wants them more.

As Andrew Friedman said "If you're always rational about every free agent, you will finish third on every free agent".

We also can't dismiss just gross incompetence either. If the Mets ARE targeting say 85-88 but are only able to be 90% effective at it, they're back at .500 and missing it. Just like 2025, where they failed to deal with any of the adversity.

[Edgy MD]

I am cool with finishing third on every free agent.

I am not cool with finishing third on every Mets free agent, while successfully landing free agents from other teams. That is suspending rationality in an alternating pattern that resembles self-loathing.

Beyond both rationality and irrationality is superrationality. I prefer that be the guide.

[MFS62]

Can't find the post, but someone here mentioned that the approach reminds them of a Moneyball scenario. IIRC, there is a scene when the traditional baseball guys are wondering where they are going to replace their slugging first baseman's HR and RBI. Beane responded that you don't have to find that production in one player, but several players can make up that difference.

Maybe they can do that. But can they find enough production to add the numbers of Nimmo, too?

I'm not sure that's available.

Later

[Centerfield]

So following the Polanco signing, it’s still up in the air which direction the Mets are going.

Polanco is a nice bat when healthy, but not a star. I think the next offensive move will give insight on which way the Mets are going. If it’s another “perfectly fine” signing then I think it’s the Wild Card route. If they go middle of the order bat then we know they’re going for it.

[ashie62]

Polanco is 32 and deliciously mediocre

[The Hot Corner]

Stearns has the benefit of Cohen's deep pockets, but he seems to be value shopping. It's seems like he is afraid to go big on a long-term deal for fear of getting burned. I know he went big (in a historic way) for Juan Soto last year, but if that deal goes sour it is almost assuredly many years down the road.

The next new additions to the Mets best be Kyle Tucker and Michael King. At this point, I don't expect either one to join the Mets.

[MFS62]

I will be lighting candles for seven more nights, hoping for some miracles.

Later

[Centerfield]

Will Sammon has been pretty spot on this winter. He said early that the Mets would not go more than 3 years on Alonso, and mentioned Jorge Polanco the night before the deal happened. In his article in the Times today, he said the Mets are looking to add a starter "in the front half of their rotation", according to league sources.

Also from the article:

 

Also, New York is eyeing another bat, league sources said. It would be surprising if the Mets didn't supplement their outfield. Such an addition may or may not come in the form of a star player, though.

 

So, not super helpful. I said it in another thread. At some point, the Mets are going to need someone who can adequately hit behind Juan Soto.

[Benjamin Grimm]

Regarding the rotation, I'm getting a Framber Valdez hunch.

I have no idea who their big bat is going to be. I just hope they find somebody.

[MFS62]

Not only didn't Cohen bring me a free agent present for Hanukkah, he blew out the candles on my menorah.

Later

[Centerfield]

So as of December 22, the Mets have downgraded at second base and closer. They have no left fielder. They have no first baseman. They have not addressed the hole in CF. They've done nothing to address their rotation. But they have signed a good DH, but even then, to a guy with an injury history.

Absent a complete shift in thinking, I don't see a path to making this team a championship contender in 2026.

[Benjamin Grimm]

I know what you mean. It's not like there's an impact free agent out there that would solve all this. Maybe they'll sign Tucker or Bellinger, which would be a step in the right direction, but it would still leave them behind where they were at the end of the 2025 season. And that wasn't a good place.

Some big moves might be coming, but I don't have any idea what they might be. If they in fact are coming.

[Edgy MD]

I think the plan appears largely to prepare the way of coming talent.

[Gwreck]

I think the plan appears largely to prepare the way of coming talent.

 

I think you’re right. The “plan” to make this team playoff-caliber is to assume/hope/guess that:

-Baty can not only repeat, but improve upon his unprecedented 2025 season

-Alvarez can perform as he did in 2025 (post-demotion) for an entire year

-Vientos can return to the form he had in 2024

-Peterson can pitch a full year’s worth of innings and be reasonably effective

-Holmes can be as good as he was in 2025 but throw more innings

-Manaea and/or Senga can return to their 2024 or 2023 form, respectively

-Some combination of McLean, Sproat and/or Tong are effective major league starters over a full year (and not the 8, 3, or 1 good starts they respectively had in 2025)

-Devin Williams can return to his pre-2025 form

-Tyrone Taylor is better

-Some positive offensive contributions are made by Mauricio, Benge, and/or Williams.

And of course that all of this happen without ramp-up/adjustment periods occurring that cost the team wins.

If this all happens, then sure, we probably have a 95-100 win team. If some-to-most of it happens, maybe the Mets make the playoffs.

I think it’s a terrible plan, but I suppose it is a plan.

[ashie62]

It's ALL about building the on ramp for the young talent

I don't think Stearns is going to sign a "big" name at this point

Unless you consider moves for Luis Robert, Bichette or something of that sort "big"

I did not think the collapse of 2025 would lead to this much change

[whippoorwill]

Please join me in my mass migration to NFL and college football…

[Centerfield]

I think the plan appears largely to prepare the way of coming talent.

 

I think you’re right. The “plan” to make this team playoff-caliber is to assume/hope/guess that:

-Baty can not only repeat, but improve upon his unprecedented 2025 season

-Alvarez can perform as he did in 2025 (post-demotion) for an entire year

-Vientos can return to the form he had in 2024

-Peterson can pitch a full year’s worth of innings and be reasonably effective

-Holmes can be as good as he was in 2025 but throw more innings

-Manaea and/or Senga can return to their 2024 or 2023 form, respectively

-Some combination of McLean, Sproat and/or Tong are effective major league starters over a full year (and not the 8, 3, or 1 good starts they respectively had in 2025)

-Devin Williams can return to his pre-2025 form

-Tyrone Taylor is better

-Some positive offensive contributions are made by Mauricio, Benge, and/or Williams.

And of course that all of this happen without ramp-up/adjustment periods occurring that cost the team wins.

If this all happens, then sure, we probably have a 95-100 win team. If some-to-most of it happens, maybe the Mets make the playoffs.

I think it’s a terrible plan, but I suppose it is a plan.

 

You also need Polanco to stay healthy, despite his track record saying that he never stays healthy. You need Minter to stay healthy, despite his track record saying that he never stays healthy. You need 36 year old Brooks Raley to stay healthy and perform like he did last year over the course of a full year. You need to hit on a few bullpen arms besides the ones mentioned.

The curious part of all this, is that if it really was going to be a youth movement, then I can understand the plan. You trade everyone, get prospects. Slash payroll. Call up the kids, hope they succeed. Wait for your next window, then spend. But that's tough to do when you've paid for Soto and Lindor is at the tail end of his prime.

And if you're playing the kids, you're not signing Jorge Polanco to block their path. You're not handing second base to Marcus Semien.

So it's this middle ground. Cohen is on record now saying payroll won't go down. So it seems like Stearns has at least $40 Million to spend. That's enough to turn this team into a wild card contender. I don't see how that can turn this team into an actual championship contender, without, as gwreck says, hoping that a lot of question marks turn it around.

[Edgy MD]

I don't think Polanco and Semien are blocking anybody's path.

Preparing the way for coming talent does not mean they clear the roster of existing talent and turn the team over to debutantes. Sometimes, it just means avoiding entrenched commitments.

Talent usually emerges on its own unpredictable schedule, and you need MLB players holding down positions until then, and I suspect they want players who are easy to move to another position or move on from entirely (contracts of two years or fewer) if and when somebody steps up. I think they want the organization to be nimble.

[Gwreck]

you need MLB players holding down positions until then, and I suspect they want players who are easy to move to another position or move on from entirely (contracts of two years or fewer) if and when somebody steps up. I think they want the organization to be nimble.

 

Of course, all of this — assuming it’s the plan — counsels against trading McNeil with one year left. And as noted above, taking this approach (and not signing impact free agents) requires either banking on a whole lot of improvement from existing players or foregoing the playoffs in 2026.

The Mets have massive resources. A lengthy contract is not an albatross for the Mets the way it is for others. They can both make the team good AND keep their prospects.

[smg58]

The other possibility we need to consider is that Stearns is answering to Cohen a lot more than we thought. The Mets have spent the offseason to this point shedding the last vestiges of the Wilpon era, and that might not be a coincidence. I could picture Cohen wanting the faces of the team to be guys he signed off on, especially since the old guard didn't bring consistent success.

[Edgy MD]

I agree. I am not endorsing the McNeil trade, so much as trying to understand the general outline of the organizational plan, as this thread asks.

I think, however moving McNeil fits into their broader designs, the primary motivation of it may well be about turning the page on reported clubhouse rivalries. It is also possible that seeing his contemporaries being swept out of the organization prompted him to request a deal. Maybe the added benefit is helping getting under stupid luxury tax threshholds (does the money they send to Oakland count against their salary figures?) — that the owner can afford but still penalize the team as they try to recruit amateur players.

That is three maybes. A fourth maybe is that maybe the trade is motivated a bit of all of those maybes. smg above has a fifth maybe of his own.

[Lefty Specialist]

The Mets certainly have the salary room to make additions. But the fact that they haven't signed anyone big seems to play into Stearns' aversion to long-term deals. They seem to be waiting like they waited for Alonso last year, hoping the market will come to them. I don't think that's going to happen. Could be a game of musical chairs where they're the ones left standing.

Yeah, if 19 things all happen, they'll win 95 games. If they don't, or if only a few happen, they're a sub-.500 team.

[Centerfield]

Yeah, honestly, I don't see the plan.

Cody Bellinger will likely require a long term commitment, as least as long as Alonso. And he's the same age, so I don't see that as a fit. He also has terrible Home-Away splits, hits LH, and has a lower ceiling and lower floor than Alonso. So I can't see Stearns going for him.

Tucker is very good. But may require an 8-10 year commitment. Unless the market craters for him, I don't see him as a fit.

None of the other free agent hitters are good enough to provide Soto protection. And I haven't heard a single trade candidate that fits either. Not to say there isn't one. I just don't see any options.

I do see lots of ways to improve the rotation still. And maybe that's the route they'll go. Roll the dice on offense, hope the kids are good, and focus on improving the rotation and pen.

And to be clear, when I say "I don't see him as a fit", I don't mean me. Of all the options left, I'd sign Tucker. I don't think David Stearns sees him as a fit.

[The Hot Corner]

I think the plan is shoot for a wild card slot and hope to catch lightning in a bottle during the post-season for 2026. Banking on a few of the youngsters (Benge, Williams, Mauricio, Acuna, Sproat, & Tong) to be contributors for 2026, then counting on a the youth contingent to be major contributors in 2027. The Mets have one of the largest budgets to work with, but Stearns seems to working like he is still in Milwaukee.

I know there is still time left to improve the team, but as it is currently constructed, I would rather have gone with what we had in 2025 and hope for some help from the youngsters. I do not believe the roster is as strong now as it was at the start of the off-season.

[MFS62]

The Mets have one of the largest budgets to work with, but Stearns seems to working like he is still in Milwaukee.

 

I feel the same.

Later

[ashie62]

It only takes 85-86 games to make the postseason

That may be the goal

Stearns is going to go crickets from here in??

As dick picker Mickey Callaway recently said "It'd better work"

[Fman99]

Yeah like they have a plan.

I think it's hard to argue that the only two batters left on the FA market that could truly protect Soto in the lineup are Bellinger and Tucker and if they both sign elsewhere Soto will improve even more upon his NL leading BB total from 2024.

[Edgy MD]

Immediately after Alonso signed with the Orioles, Ron Darling came out publicly and said, "Well, what you're going to have is Juan Soto walking 150 times" — the implication being that, without a bat as productive as Alonso's behind him, nobody would want to throw Soto a strike.

That may or may not be true, but I have trouble seeing 150 walks by anybody as a bad thing.

[Benjamin Grimm]

I'm coming to accept that this may be a season where we hope for that 84th win and that it's enough for the sixth playoff slot. I think I'd rather have that than a trade that costs three top prospects. Let's see what Tong and Sproat and Williams etc can do for the Mets organization in 2026. Maybe they'll be a stronger team in 2027 (if there is a 2027) and beyond.