MLB Hot Stove 2025-2026 offseason

[DocTee]

Two years ago the Mets gave HB $10.5M for a one year deal. With inflation, he has actually taken a relative paycut (although he earned less than $5M last year).

[Frayed Knot]

I'm more surprised that someone agreed to give him two years. Yeah he's still only 31 y/o (32 in June) but doesn't seem like the type you'd have to commit to more than one.

Since spending his first five seasons with the Cardinals he's played for six teams in four seasons since: StL/NYY in 2022, NYY/CIN in '23, Mets in '24, then MIN/PHI in 2025

And now the Giants make seven. One could probably find someone to take a prop bet about whether he's still around San Fran at the end of the first season much less both.

[Edgy MD]

He's coming off a strong-ish season, and it's late enough in the winter that some folks that want to come home with a prize convince themselves that he is one.

The other top outfielders left are probably Starling Marte and Michael Conforto. Suddenly, if you squint hard enough, Harrison Bader is looking like a pretty good bet.

[Cowtipper]

Dom Hamel on the move to the Yankees. It's nuts how quickly a guy goes from "he's a potential cog" in NY to just another wayward MLB traveler. He was the Mets' #9 prospect in 2022 and 2023, right up there with Mark Vientos.

[Frayed Knot]

Luis Arraez continues his 'round the league tour by signing a one year deal with the SF Giants, presumably to be their everyday 2nd baseman. SFG will be the

fourth ML club for Arraez (previously MIN, MIA, SDP) as he goes into his eighth season and the 3rd since 2023 despite having won batting titles in 2022, '23 & '24

[smg58]

Austin Hays goes to the CWS for a year with a mutual option, at $6M guaranteed. While I'd prefer Miguel Andujar, that's almost too reasonable of a price given that the Mets could really use a righthanded bat in left field.

[The Hot Corner]

Eugenio Saurez returns to the Cincinnati Reds on a 1 year/$15 Mil. deal with a mutual option for 2027.

[Fman99]

Eugenio Saurez returns to the Cincinnati Reds on a 1 year/$15 Mil. deal with a mutual option for 2027.

 

Wow, 325 career dingers for this guy. Has he been around that long? I feel old

[Edgy MD]

Eugenio Saurez returns to the Cincinnati Reds on a 1 year/$15 Mil. deal with a mutual option for 2027.

 

Wow, 325 career dingers for this guy. Has he been around that long? I feel old

 

Did it all in a little over 10 years. He may not be a superstar, but he has been consistent and he stays healthy.

Total bro, too.

[Fman99]

If I had ever been good enough to play major league baseball you can bet your ass I'd have been sporting a sweet, sweet mullet out there. If not them, then who?

[Marshmallowmilkshake]

I took my wife to a game at Great American during Suarez's first stint with the Reds, and snagged some sweet seats in the second row, behind third. My wife sent me to get her a drink, and apparently when I was gone there was a pop foul near the stands and Suarez jumped to get it -- this was before the nets -- practically fell on top of my wife.

She always tells me that my one job at a ballgame is to protect her from foul balls. She says I failed, but Suarez did it for me. I noted that Suarez did not bring her a fancy raspberry margarita in a collectible stadium cup, but I did.

[Frayed Knot]

So if she wants you there for protection then tell her to get her own ****in' drink next time.

Although you my want to word it differently

[Marshmallowmilkshake]

So if she wants you there for protection then tell her to get her own ****in' drink next time.

Although you my want to word it differently

 

I go to a lot of games by myself. And I'm OK with that.

[Centerfield]

and Suarez...practically fell on top of my wife.

 

 

I got your back. Let's go **** up Eugenio Suarez.

[Edgy MD]

At a AA game, I was in row 2, behind the dugout, pre-netting. Josh Barfield — on a rehab assignment from the bigs, I think — drove one heading right between my eyes. I was certain the last thing I would ever see was the autograph of the Eastern League Commissioner.

Somehow, I was able to elude this untimely death, but the crack of the ball against the back of the seat behind me reverberated through the whole all ballpark, which fell into a hushed silence.

I wondered what the hell I ever did to Josh Barfield, who was perhaps one half as strong as his father, but you wouldn't know it from the violence he directed at me. He didn't even offer me an apologetic nod from the batter's box.

For the rest of the game, in my seats or wandering around the concourse, anybody I crossed paths with in the ballpark looked at me with a sort of awe — not like I was cool, but like I was undead. They would stare at me but not speak. "I don't know how you avoided that ball," one guy finally said to me, with a tone of suspicion, like I was meant to be dead, and they all knew it, and that my continuing to be walking about the ballpark was evidence of foul allegiances.

"I don't know either," I honestly replied, and then a third man, less intimidated by witchcraft, but still kind of whispering, joined in with, "I think you dove underneath your wife's shirt."

Funny-ish, but still no eye contact from the guy.

Be you heperson or sheperson, the game suddenly happening right in your face can be a pretty unsettling thing.

[Marshmallowmilkshake]

and Suarez...practically fell on top of my wife.

 

 

I got your back. Let's go **** up Eugenio Suarez.

 

LOL!

[Frayed Knot]

Carlos Santana will spend in 17th ML season in the employment of the Arizona Diamondbacks. One year contract.

The Cardinals, following losing seasons in two of the last three years (which makes it like three of the last 25), continue to signal 'Rebuild' as they deal away

Brendan Donovan to Seattle as part of a multi-team deal. Donovan joins Sonny Gray, Willson Contreras, and Nolan Arenado as veteran 2025 Cardinals who

have become ex-Cardinals over the last few months.

StL has gone younger and have restocked their minor league system [now have six of the top hundred prospects) with trades like this one and others. But the lineup

to start the 2026 season is one that even the 'BFiB' (the self-proclaimed: Best Fans in Baseball) and many hard-core fantasy geeks are going to have trouble identifying.

An early season scorecard might consist of:

2B - JJ Wetherholt

DH - Iván Herrera

LF - Lars Nootbaar

1B - Alec Burleson

3B - Nolan Gorman/Thomas Saggese

SS - Masyn Winn

RF - Jordan Walker

C - Pedro Pages/Jimmy Crooks

CF - Victor Scott II

All are 27 or under and only Burlson is over 25. But aside from Masyn Wynn, only Jordan Walker (who may be on his last chance at breaking out)

and Lars Nootbaar (largely because his name is Lars Nootbaar) are going to be recognizable names to most BB fans.

[Edgy MD]

Rob Refsnyder has joined the Mariners on a one-year deal.

He is 35 and looks older, and has only once hit as many as 10 homers (11 in 2024), but he has become, year in and year out, one of the best choices in the league to be the righthanded-hitting member of any platoon spot in your lineup.

[smg58]

Miguel Andujar goes to the Padres for one year and $4M. Given that the Mets kind of need a righthanded bat with some outfield experience even if/when Benge does come to Flushing, this strikes me as criminal negligence.

[Gwreck]

Yabbut arbitration guys don't have the leverage free-agency guys do.

The arbitrator will decide. I imagine that, if it goes to a hearing, that will have a lot to do with whether he is dealt. But, if the pattern of seemingly 90% of the cases holds, they will agree to spit the difference down the middle shortly before the hearing is scheduled to go down.

 

Skubal won the hearing and will be paid $32 million this year (versus the Tigers’ proposed $19M).

[Benjamin Grimm]

I don't know what the Tigers were thinking. Skubal is certainly better than Sean Manaea, who's making $25 million. And I'm certain there are many many examples of pitchers who are making more than $19 million who aren't nearly as good as Skubal.

[Edgy MD]

Yabbut arbitration guys don't have the leverage free-agency guys do.

The arbitrator will decide. I imagine that, if it goes to a hearing, that will have a lot to do with whether he is dealt. But, if the pattern of seemingly 90% of the cases holds, they will agree to spit the difference down the middle shortly before the hearing is scheduled to go down.

 

Skubal won the hearing and will be paid $32 million this year (versus the Tigers’ proposed $19M).

 

Good for the Sku!

[Gwreck]

I don't know what the Tigers were thinking. Skubal is certainly better than Sean Manaea, who's making $25 million. And I'm certain there are many many examples of pitchers who are making more than $19 million who aren't nearly as good as Skubal.

 

There are some very specific rules for MLB salary anrbitrstion about the players who can be used as comparisons, who must have corresponding service time, and so forth. In most circumstances, neither Manaea’s salary (nor many others’) would have been a relevant data point.

Skubal had an advantage because there is a rarely-applicable rule that if a player has “special achievements” (here, the back-to-back Cy Young awards) than the pool of comparators can be expanded.

But in any circumstance, the $19M was still way too low, and probably harmed any chance of settling (if they had filed at, say $23 or $25M, Skubal might have thought twice about going through with the hearing).

[Frayed Knot]

When I first saw those arb figures being traded it seemed to me that maybe Detroit was trying to lose on purpose.

Not that they wanted to pay him $32mil but they also didn't want him going into his FA year with a bad taste in his

mouth from an arb-hearing loss so that maybe a long-term deal was still possible.

[Centerfield]

That's an interesting theory. I originally just figured they simply didn't want to pay him. But then why would they give that huge contract for Framber. Makes so little sense.

[Frayed Knot]

Marcell Ozuna, one yr deal w/option for second, Pittsburgh.

[Lefty Specialist]

I wouldn't have minded Ozuma as the full-time DH, but you would have had to trade Vientos to make that work.

[DocTee]

Glad to see the Pirates (and White Sox) making moves this off-season. It's good for their fans and for the game.

[smg58]

I agree on that, although I would have been in on Ozuna at that price. There are lots of teams that need third basemen (like the Brewers, who just traded Caleb Durbin to the Red Sox), so there would have to be some market for Vientos.

Speaking of the Red Sox, I still can't help wondering if they'd have traded Abreu for Baty.

[Edgy MD]

Ozoony is the sort of late-off-season deal Pittsburgh specializes in. He is only partially there to give the lineup added juice and respectability. The other part is to stockpile him for a trade at the deadline.

As for me and my house, when you say "Ozuna" we say, "drugs."

Like, lots of 'em.