They're Gonna Fucking Blow It

[Centerfield]

Last night's loss was bad. Per ESPN, our playoff percentage dropped to 92.3%. It had been hovering around 96% for a long time.

Three days of pain might be underselling it. They face Suarez, Sanchez and Luzardo over the next three days. Then come home to face deGrom. By the time Friday ends, they could possibly be out of a playoff spot.

2-2 might be the best we can hope for here.

After deGrom they'll face:

Saturday: Patrick Corbin. 4.36 ERA, 1.32 WHIP

Sunday: Jacob Latz. 2.91 ERA, 1.24 WHIP

Tuesday: Nick Pivetta. 2.85 ERA, 0.96 WHIP

You figure they can beat Corbin, lefty or not, and you match up McLean against Latz on Sunday. Tuesday night Pivetta against Manaea is a mismatch.

[Lefty Specialist]

They've been slowly sinking for 3 months now (13 games under). The only question is which one of the teams treading water around .500 gets hot for a week and catches them. Right now it looks like the Giants.

[Centerfield]

I guess the one good thing is that the Giants will spend the next 15 games playing the Diamondbacks, Dodgers and Cardinals. Arizona and St. Louis are both .500-ish teams with a slim chance to snag that 3rd WC themselves, so I guess they'll be playing for something. And LA, despite struggling lately, is still LA.

But as FK mentioned in the other thread, only one of SF, CIN, STL or ARI needs to get hot. And if the Mets don't at least go .500 the rest of the way, they're likely on the outside looking in.

[Benjamin Grimm]

Basically, we need the Mets to be the team that gets hot.

And it might happen. But it's not looking promising.

[Edgy MD]

I think they probably survive to appear in the playoffs. To what end is another matter. It is hard to see them getting their act together enough to prosper in October if they do not show something of that in September.

I don't want to say much more about Cedric Mullins. He plays as if his heart is heavy. And heart-not-in-it-edness is contagious.

[MFS62]

San Fran is still the team that scares me.

Later

[roger_that]

I think they probably survive to appear in the playoffs. To what end is another matter. It is hard to see them get their act together enough to prosper in October if they do not show something of that in September.

It is hard to say much more about Cedric Mullins. He plays as if his heart is heavy. And heart-not-in-it-edness is contagious.

 

Looks like we're better with Squirrel and Siri in center. Mullins is a failed rental, but I hope they're not committed to playing him due to the "sunk cost" dynamic.

[Cowtipper]

It seemed almost certain this was going to at least be a 90-win team. But now I'm getting 2007/2008/2016 Mets vibes. Total underachievers. We have offensive stars in Soto, Lindor and Alonso, "top prospects" in Acuna, Baty, Vientos, Mauricio and Alvarez, pitching "stars" in Senga and Diaz, and a whole core of supposedly solid players in Nimmo, McNeil, Marte, Manaea, Peterson, etc. and they could potentially not even be a .500 team this year.

[Centerfield]

I would argue that this year's team will be far more disappointing than those teams you mention. Those teams fell short, but realistically, they had huge holes as constructed.

The 2025 team is stacked with talent from top to bottom. It's disappointing that so many of these talented players are underperforming, and that they collectively seem to be less than the sum of their parts.

[Benjamin Grimm]

I think it would be hard to be more disappointing than 2007. They fell so far so fast in those last couple of weeks.

[The Hot Corner]

The Mets definitely need to put it together so they can fend off the teams closing in on them for the final wildcard spot. I am starting have serious doubts that they can do it. The have not been a good team (offensively and defensively at the same time) for quite some time. I don't expect it to suddenly change in the final month of the season.

[Centerfield]

Off the top of my head:

Outperforming Expectations:

Nolan McLean

Edwin Diaz

Brooks Raley

Performing at Expectations:

Juan Soto

Pete Alonso

Francisco Lindor

Francisco Alvarez (but was hurt)

Jeff McNeil

Brett Baty

Starling Marte

Luis Torrens

David Peterson

Clay Holmes

Reed Garrett

Tyler Rogers

Gregory Soto

Huascar Brazoban

Performing Under Expectations

Brandon Nimmo (slighty)

Mark Vientos

Luisangel Acuna

Tyrone Taylor

Jesse Winker (injury)

Cedric Mullins

Jose Siri (injury)

Kodai Senga

Sean Manaea

Frankie Montas

Griffin Canning (injury)

Ryne Stanek

Dedniel Nunez (injury)

Ryan Helsley

Danny Young

AJ Minter (injury)

Tylor Megill (injury)

Too Early to Tell

Jonah Tong

Brandon Sproat

Ronnie Maurico

[Centerfield]

As a group, they are 9th in MLB in runs scored. Which I guess is ok, but going in, I think we were all hoping that this would be a top 5 offense.

Pitching, the Mets are 13th overall in ERA, which I think is lower than we were hoping, but something we thought could be a possibility given the question marks going in.

When you break that down, the Mets are 10th in Starter ERA, and 13th in bullpen ERA. The issue is that the Mets are 25th in IP for starters, and have the 7th highest IP for relievers.

[MFS62]

In the predictions thread, I think someone predicted they would win 84 games*.

They seem to be heading toward that kind of result.

Later

* = I predicted 82

[Lefty Specialist]

As a group, they are 9th in MLB in runs scored. Which I guess is ok, but going in, I think we were all hoping that this would be a top 5 offense.

Pitching, the Mets are 13th overall in ERA, which I think is lower than we were hoping, but something we thought could be a possibility given the question marks going in.

When you break that down, the Mets are 10th in Starter ERA, and 13th in bullpen ERA. The issue is that the Mets are 25th in IP for starters, and have the 7th highest IP for relievers.

 

Need to break that down further. Until June 12th (when they were 45-24) and since June 12th (where they are 31-44, a .413 win pct). Continuing at that pace gives them either an 83-79 or 84-78 record. That's not enough..

[Centerfield]

They’re gonna ****ing blow it.

[Lefty Specialist]

They'll be swept by the Phillies, then face a hot Rangers team with something to play for. They're toast.

[The Hot Corner]

I won't be surprised if the Mets leave Philadelphia, either tied or with a half game lead for the final Wild Card spot.

[Centerfield]

0-3.

Three quarters of the way to fulfilling the saddest, easiest prediction of all time.

[metsmarathon]

You know what they say… expect the Mets.

[The Hot Corner]

[Centerfield]

And they complete the 0 for 4. Can’t even steal one game.

It’s a lot to ask of the rookie pitchers, but the Mets now have two winnable games before another pitching mismatch on Tuesday.

No words for how bad this is.

[whippoorwill]

I think it would be hard to be more disappointing than 2007. They fell so far so fast in those last couple of weeks.

 

It’s funny (not haha) you mention this. That was the year my dad died (September 5) and right after that was when the Mets went into their free fall.

Dad was their lucky charm 🍀

[The Hot Corner]

The Mets need to go 6-7 in their remain games to finish with 82 wins and assure a better than .500 season. From what I have seen seen from them in the past month, I have serious doubt they can accomplish that small feat. Playoffs look like a pipe dream for this team.

[Centerfield]

The Mets are 17th in team ERA. So if you’re looking for reasons why they won’t make the playoffs, you can start there.

Their 1.34 WHIP is even worse. 24th overall. So if you feel like the other team has baserunners all the time, you’re not wrong.

Post All Star is even worse. 24th overall in ERA. 25th in WHIP. The Mets pitching lab has been exposed as a fraud.

[Gwreck]

The Mets pitching lab has been exposed as a fraud.

 

I’m not sure we agree on the definition of “fraud.”

The Mets got better than expected results out of Canning this year before a freak/non-pitching injury. Senga was excellent before getting hurt with, again, a freak/non-pitching injury. He’s been awful since and maybe there’s no connection but the timing is surprisingly coincidental if not.

Holmes has had diminishing results as his inning count goes up. Big shock, we all saw this coming. Why he hasn’t been transitioned to a reliever already is a failure of strategy but overall he was a serviceable back-of-rotation starter.

Manaea is the worrisome one. Was his excellent half season the outlier? Is he just not healthy?

[roger_that]

And Tong has been all over the place. First game great, next game ok, third game terrible. What is he, like 22 years old or something? Get it together, man!

[Centerfield]

The Mets pitching lab has been exposed as a fraud.

 

I’m not sure we agree on the definition of “fraud.”

The Mets got better than expected results out of Canning this year before a freak/non-pitching injury. Senga was excellent before getting hurt with, again, a freak/non-pitching injury. He’s been awful since and maybe there’s no connection but the timing is surprisingly coincidental if not.

Holmes has had diminishing results as his inning count goes up. Big shock, we all saw this coming. Why he hasn’t been transitioned to a reliever already is a failure of strategy but overall he was a serviceable back-of-rotation starter.

Manaea is the worrisome one. Was his excellent half season the outlier? Is he just not healthy?

 

Griffin Canning was a big part of the pitching lab success. He finished April with a 2.61 ERA. Then posted an ERA over 4 in 5 starts in May. Then posted an ERA over 5 during 5 starts in June. We have no idea what might have happened had he kept pitching. But one month of success isn’t enough to warrant praise.

Similarly, Megill was a big part of the early season story line. Then he, like Canning, started to fade. Then like Canning, got hurt. Montas was hurt, then a disaster, then hurt again. Manaea is unpitchable. Is he hurt? Let’s hope so. Cuz if he’s healthy it’s going to be a long three years. And Senga is so bad he’s in the minors.

I get that you can’t control injuries, but Senga and Manaea are supposedly healthy and this pitching lab can’t do a thing to help them. Peterson has taken a step back, and has an ERA in the mid 6’s for August and September. Clay Holmes is predictably fading, as you mentioned.

Gregory Soto, Tyler Rogers and Ryan Helsley have all pitched worse for the Mets than they did for their prior teams. Granted Rogers has been pretty good still, but the freefall from Helsley is baffling.

If the pitching lab were real, you wouldn’t have the 24th ranked ERA in the second half, and 17th ranked ERA for the year.

[MFS62]

I think the reason for Peterson's decline is just fatigue. He has already pitched more than 20 innings more than he did in any other major league season.

Now if you want to blame the lab for not preparing starters to pitch more innings, then putting him in that group is valid.

But I agree with the rest of your comments

Later

[Edgy MD]

Senga and Manaea may be (or may not be) healthy, but returning from injury is always going to be the start of a new book. Will you be doing what you did before, or will you be adapting to new circumstances? Will you have your mobility and strength and dexterity, but still need to re-establish your constitution and endurance? Vice-versa?

The organization obviously chose a lot of short-term fills this year in anticipation of a lot of talent maturing in the seasons to come. The hope for such fills is that they work long enough until the coming talent is established, and that is much of the drama of what this season has been.

You get to trim the number of guys you need to rely on in the post-season, but they are running out of time to even establish a trimmed-down version of their staff they can deploy.

Baseball drama is powerful.