The Pete Alonso Conundrum

[metsmarathon]

Damn.

I mean, if you look at FanGraphs value tab, he’s barely a $20M player so perhaps that’s actually fair. I think him in the lineup would some compounding impact above that, especially batting behind Soto.

But gosh it’s hard to look at that and then go say pay him $30M.

Irrespective of that… I still want him back. $27 for one and see how it goes.

[Frayed Knot]

OTOH, it's tough to see how one or more of the teams labeled as interested are going to get into a bidding war and top the Mets offer, at least not by much.

And if the ultimate winning bid does only top it by a bit is Pete going to take it just because it's the highest so as to prove some kind of point? Or because of pressure from Boras/MLBPA to never settle for less than top offer?

There's a saying about how the decisions you make strictly for the most money often are the ones that make you less happy. Given Pete's stated position that he wanted to remain in New York, will he ultimately swallow hard and accept the offer from the Mets even though it's four years shorter and less than half as lucrative as the one he rejected in 2023?

[batmagadanleadoff]

Wasn't it reported that the Mets offered 3/90? I guess that was incorrect.

[The Hot Corner]

When Strawberry left for L.A. it was the same kind of sentiment. In retrospect it was the right move. Straw had one good year and then pfft. I’m as big an Alonso fan as there is, but you know sometimes you gotta just cut bait.

 

Yup. I say offer him $78 mil. for 3 years* with opt out after both year 1 and 2. If that isn't good enough, then good luck in the future.

*Of course, it's not my money so it's easy to up the reported offer.

[Fman99]

For all of Pete's self-professed Mets love over the years, don't forget that he rejected a $150+ million dollar offer during the summer of 2023 so that he could play the market. I loved rooting for the guy but he dug his own hole here by getting progressively worse for the last couple of seasons and holding out for the big payday. I'm sure the MLBPA and his agency has a role in that decision too, but, ultimately, some people actually do take less money to play where they already love playing. And some are Pete. There, I said it.

I think the Mets pivot and spend and still upgrade the roster before opening day 2025. I know they want to see what they have in some of the younger bats but the Cohen regime generally has been willing to spend on positional help. They did it very late in the game last spring with the J.D. signing and I think hopefully they learned not to let things linger on so long - get these guys situated in time for a proper spring training at least.

[metirish]

Yeah I agree with Fman , I don't feel bad for Pete , but damn that deal must be looking mighty fine right now , should have been smart like Nimmo

[ashie62]

NY Post says today Alonso was offered 68-70 for 3 years

And the Mets pivoted to Winker

Sporting news is running Vladdy rumors to the Mets

[Benjamin Grimm]

Vlad will come at a steep price in young players. I would only do it if there's a negotiating window.

I don't see it happening.

[ashie62]

Martino went on that the Mets are done on Alonso

They've signed Winker and now maybe a reliever, a top one

Who knows but Pete's price seems to be going down?

[metirish]

Well, there doesn't seem to be much of a market for him, maybe now with the Mets supposedly out a market will develop?

[Benjamin Grimm]

I still think there's a chance that the market will come back to the Mets, if that $68 million offer becomes his best option.

That is, unless the Mets have committed elsewhere by then. Which I think is the most likely outcome.

[Benjamin Grimm]

This is what I said in October. It looks like it may play out that way.

I think he'll be one of those players, like Snell and Montgomery and Martinez this year, who remain unsigned until March. And by then the Mets will have moved on.

[Centerfield]

I think it's helpful to consider why we are getting these leaks. First, Pete's market. There are no other offers that are close. If there were, they would have been leveraged against the Mets offer. There's been nothing. We can reasonably conclude there is nothing currently.

So in the absence of actual competitors, Boras is reverting to the only option he has next. Public pressure. He leaked to Duquette last week that Pete was willing to come back on a three year deal, but intentionally did not mention the AAV demand. This riled up the Mets fanbase that a deal was close. The overwhelming sentiment was that for a short term deal, the Mets should "just get it done". Then came the news that they were still far apart in AAV. Duquette, in exchange for the news he was given, was asked to implore Cohen to get involved. Boras knows that Stearns won't budge unless he's made to budge.

Since then, Boras has leaked additional info to try to create more public pressure. The Mets have given Alonso a deadline. The Mets made a low-ball offer. And now, he's leaking that the Mets have moved on. Boras is trying to demonstrate to the Mets that losing Alonso will create outrage, panic, and will be terrible for the Mets. I don't think it will work.

I picture Stearns just sitting there. Unphased, just sitting on his offer. I think Stearns believes that even if another team comes into the picture and offers more, that the Mets will get the right to match before Pete leaves. And so he sits and waits, knowing he's the highest bidder.

And for that reason, I still remain optimistic that the two sides will reach a deal. I don't really think anything has changed simply because Boras decided to make the discussions public. If anything, I think it suggests he's running out of options.

I will say this though. Stearns had better be right. Because if Pete gets a higher offer, and out of spite, doesn't come back and ask the Mets to match. Or, if Pete does, and Stearns declines to match, I don't see how Stearns can realistically make up for the loss of Pete with the options that remain. I've said before that I would have blinked long before this. Let's see if he's right.

[smg58]

It's very fair to wonder what the Plan B is for both sides at this point. Given what other first baseman (most of whom are coming off better seasons than Alonso) have gotten, I can't see the market for Alonso being better than what the Mets appear to have offered. But how would the Mets pivot? I'm not for overpaying Alonso, but you can't replace him with nothing. One of the MLBTR articles suggested they'd move Vientos to first and try a combination of Baty, Acuna, and Mauricio at third. That's two guys who I'm not sure have ever played the position, and a third who made his biggest contribution to last year's team by taking a one-way trip to Syracuse. Do they think the Wilpons still run the team? I'm working under the assumption that Stearns has a contingency.

[metsmarathon]

The contingency is Bregman, who’s caught in the same morass.

[MFS62]

Reports (metsonline.com? amazinavenue.com?) say Mauricio may not be ready for spring training. He's still rehabbing from two surgeries.

Will that mean they'll make a Bregman deal?

Stay tuned for the next exciting chapter.

Later

[Edgy MD]

Mauricio has some experience at third. Acuña hasn't yet played there.

Of course, neither of them have to play there. They can help at third by playing second and bouncing McNeil over there.

There's a lot to be said for replacing somebody with nobody. There are hundreds of guys in your system angling for opportunities. Sometimes, you have to juggle or cycle through multiple options, but if everybody's been doing their job, quality can emerge.

[Benjamin Grimm]

Maybe they'll put McNeil at third, Acuna at second, and Vientos at first for a year and then go big for Vlad next year. I'd be reluctant, though, to put too many eggs in Vlad's basket, especially since we don't even know for sure that he'll be a free agent.

[MFS62]

McNeil has been overlooked in many of the articles I've seen about off season moves.

With the emphasis on power over average we've seen from him in the past few years, you could say he's starting to "hit like a third baseman". But I don't think he can come close to the power/speed combo that a healthy Mauricio delivers when he returns.

But until he does return? Why not McSquirrel?

Sometimes, some of the best moves are the ones you don't make.

Later

[Centerfield]

Boras is starting to lose his cool. Yesterday at the Corbin Burnes conference, he complained openly that MLB teams are making money but not spending.

https://www.cbssports.com/mlb/news/scott-boras-shames-mlb-teams-for-sitting-out-free-agency-theyre-making-more-but-theyre-not-spending/

He's clearly frustrated at the Bregman and Alonso situations and the inability to create a market.

Meanwhile, his mouthpiece Jon Heyman has an article that the slow moving free agency market is frustrating players:

https://nypost.com/2025/01/16/sports/slow-moving-mlb-free-agency-frustrating-players-insane/

This peak into Boras' mindset starts to give you the context for the leaks they've issued this past week.

[ashie62]

Martino went on that the Mets are done on Alonso

They've signed Winker and now maybe a reliever, a top one

Who knows but Pete's price seems to be going down?

 

I guess Minter fits here

[batmagadanleadoff]

This peak into Boras' mindset starts to give you the context for the leaks they've issued this past week.

 

What leaks?

[Centerfield]

This peak into Boras' mindset starts to give you the context for the leaks they've issued this past week.

 

What leaks?

 

"Pete Alonso is willing to compromise with a three year deal! And despite lots of interest, it's only open to the Mets! What a guy!"

"Can you believe it? Even after Pete came to the Mets with a three year deal structure, they still refuse to compromise on money. Steve Cohen is gonna have to get involved."

"Did you guys hear that the Mets are forcing a deadline on Pete's negotiations?"

"WTF. Check out this low-ball offer the Mets made. After everything Pete has done."

"The Mets have moved on from Alonso. Their plan B is Brett Baty. Get ready for life without Pete Mets fans."

[batmagadanleadoff]

Oh. I don't get why all of that is considered a "leak". The negotiations aren't top secret talks held in a SCIF. The parties can say what they wanna say.

[batmagadanleadoff]

Oh. I don't get why all of that is considered a "leak". The negotiations aren't top secret talks held in a SCIF. The parties can say what they wanna say.

 

And the Mets might, just the same, be playing their own bluff with this supposed deadline for Pete to come to terms.

[Edgy MD]

The best part of it all is how we try to and fold the "he said he wants to be here!" factor into the equation. How often has a guy said, "As I enter free agency, I'd like to pre-emptively exclude my current employer from consideration; yeah, I know they said they intend to make an offer but **** 'em — they may have the richest owner, but how many chances does a guy get to move to Cincinnati?"?

[Benjamin Grimm]

Darryl Strawberry essentially did that but yeah, it's not something you ever really see.

[batmagadanleadoff]

Me personally, I tend to believe what's being reported. I don't have all of the details, the granular stuff, the minutiae. But I believe the big, broad picture that other teams are showing interest in Alonso, and that the Mets, truly and sincerely need for Alonso to decide sooner rather than later.

[Channel9]

You know, I would LOVE to have a power bat like Pete’s stay with the Mets for a 10-15 year career and set all kinds of Mets records, but I do like the Winker and Minter signings which I guess is part of ‘Plan B.’ I’m also tickled (not in a sexual way) about the Vlad Guerrero, Jr. rumors (entire minor league system for Vladdy), so if Pete goes elsewhere and the Mets somehow get Vlad, then I’m completely coolio with that. And I gotta think you guys are as well.

[ashie62]

Secaucus agrees and adds Vladimir Jr's brother Vladi is already a Met