Can we talk about Dylan or should we cease?

[metirish]

Hey man what's up ?



MLB

Mets in talks with Padres about Dylan Cease trade









https://nypost.com/2025/01/30/sports/mets-in-talks-with-padres-about-dylan-cease-trade/https://nypost.com/2025/01/30/sports/mets-in-talks-with-padres-about-dylan-cease-trade/

Edited January 31, 2025 by Guest

[Bob Alpacadaca]

He's a free agent after the season. We'd have to give up some decent prospects to get him. But we do seem to have a glut of infield prospects.

[MFS62]

Kudos on the thread title.

Later

[The Hot Corner]

I wouldn't give up the prospects or players it would likely take to get Dylan Cease for his walk year.

[Channel9]

Dylan Cease is the nephew of one of my best friends. Selfishly I'd like to see him in Queens simply because I'd get good seats to games.



Negotiating an extension with him before trading the farm to SD would be a good idea though.

[Benjamin Grimm]

I'd rather just sign Jack Flaherty and keep the prospects.

[Centerfield]

Both guys were good in 2024 and bad in 2023.

[roger_that]

=MFS62 post_id=184182 time=1738330991 user_id=60]
Kudos on the thread title.

Later

[metirish]

Haha I totally missed that , even in reading it over

[Centerfield]

Jon Heyman has an article imploring the Mets to complete a trade for Dylan Cease. There are also some rumblings out there about the possibility of trading for Castillo etc. I don't see it happening. Even if the Padres or Mariners come down in price. I think it doesn't make sense for the Mets to add anyone else.



The way I see it, there are three general goals for any team.



1. Make the playoffs.

You figure, as currently constructed, the Mets are strongly positioned to make the playoffs. They should, barring injury, or underperformance, be one of the top 6 teams in the NL. There is a good chance we won't need Cease to qualify.



2. First Round Bye.

The next threshold is the first round bye. Could the Mets win the NL East and be one of the top two teams? Maybe. But neither Cease, nor Castillo, would make them favorites to win the division and finish in the top 2. It might marginally improve their odds, but does that slight improvement offset losing several young players that can help out for years to come? I don't think so. In a world where only division winners make the playoffs, I can see teams giving up prospects to get over the top. But if we know that finishing behind the Braves means we can still beat them in the playoffs, I don't know if that's worth giving up our young guys.



3. Post-Season Success

Here is where I think someone like Cease can make a difference. Getting an ace can greatly improve our chances in October. But I see no reason to make that move now. We should wait until July. At that point, we'll have a better idea of how our rotation is shaping up. We'll know more about Sproat, or any other young pitcher that can help. We'll know if Cease or Castillo are doing well. They might be hurt, or just not very good. And we'll have a better idea of the value of our young players. The downside is that some of our young guys may have played poorly and undermined their value, but I think this downside is worth the other benefits of waiting.



In a sense, not only do I not see the Mets making this type of move, I think the Mets might never (or very infrequently) make this type of move.

[metsmarathon]

cedeno for hampton, and that johan santana trade come to mind.

[Benjamin Grimm]

Hampton was a rental, as Cease would probably be. But Santana was one of those deals with a negotiating window; they knew they were acquiring him for multiple seasons.

[Centerfield]

So to clarify, I think it made sense to make this type of move in the past.



I'm saying in the era of three WC where a mid 80 win team has a good shot of making the playoffs, I think it makes less sense to do it prior to the season than waiting until the trade deadline.



That being said, the Pivetta signing perhaps signals that SD is more inclined to move Cease than we originally thought.

[metirish]

This is a move for a "Golden Era" team to make

[Lefty Specialist]

Playoffs are not a given with this team.



Braves, Phillies, Mets, Cubs, Brewers, Dodgers, Padres, and D-Backs are all pretty good shots to hit that mid-80's mark. That's 8 fannies for 6 seats.



The biggest problem this team will be pitching. Cease helps in that area. Senga/Manaea/Peterson/Montas/Holmes is not making anyone quake in their boots. That's a lot of 'ifs'.

[batmagadanleadoff]

Lefty Specialist wrote: Playoffs are not a given with this team. Braves, Phillies, Mets, Cubs, Brewers, Dodgers, Padres, and D-Backs are all pretty good shots to hit that mid-80's mark. That's 8 fannies for 6 seats.

Plus, you can pretty much guarantee that there'll be a team or two not on anybody's radar to compete for a playoff spot, competing for a playoff spot. It happens every year and now with almost half the teams making the playoffs, it's even more likely to happen.

[Benjamin Grimm]

Lefty Specialist wrote: Playoffs are not a given with this team. Braves, Phillies, Mets, Cubs, Brewers, Dodgers, Padres, and D-Backs are all pretty good shots to hit that mid-80's mark. That's 8 fannies for 6 seats.

You're right. Last year, the conventional wisdom was that 86 wins would get you in, but the Diamondbacks won 89 and ended up missing out.



I think that 92 or 93 wins are more likely to guarantee a playoff spot. And yes, a guy like Cease would make that 93rd win more likely. They can trade for him in July, I suppose, but wins that accumulate in April and May and June also count.

[Centerfield]

I mean, of course you never know what's going to happen in a baseball season until you play the season. That's a given. But I think prudent decisions rely upon likelihood of outcomes, and in that sense, projections matter. And yes, sometimes a team comes out of nowhere to compete, but oftentimes (last year excepted), another team that was supposed to be good will be awful.



Last year, the Mets were projected to win 83.6 games, good for the 3rd WC. (PECOTA, 2024). For that team, I think trading for frontline starter could have potentially greatly improved their odds to make the playoffs. They were a fringe team, and were projected to have holes in their rotation.



This year, the Mets are projected to win 91.1 games.



https://www.baseballprospectus.com/standings/https://www.baseballprospectus.com/standings/



WC teams are the Mets (91.1), Arizona (87.0), San Diego (86.0). Philadelphia is the last team out (85.3).



No one from the central is reasonably expected to compete for the WC (Milwaukee is the closest at 80.8). And LA is projected to run away with the division. So effectively, that leaves 5 teams (ATL, NYM, PHI, SD, ARI) competing for 4 spots, with the Mets projected to have the second highest win total among those 5 teams.



My thinking is that the Mets are well positioned to make the playoffs without Cease. And barring disaster, should be good enough to at least stay in the race until July, when you have more clarity and the price is lower. The downside, is that you could fall out of the race by then, some of your prospects may have lost value, and SD may have already unloaded Cease, or someone else, to a competitor.



So I don't know if there is a clear cut right answer, but I'd be inclined to hold onto my prospects for now.

[DocTee]

But if SD is one of those five teams vying for four spots, do they shop Cease as the season progresses and the backlash of a white flag surrender increases?



A full season of Senga helps but I think this staff is worse than 24 and adding a proven arm like Cease, now, is prudent.