Who do you want back, and who should go?

[Bob Alpacadaca]

The Juan Soto thread focuses on one player - and one we need to get! But I was thinking about the rest. Sterns did a great job with the one-year contract guys this season, and some increased their value and will expect to be paid well. There are bunch of prospects who might be ready to step up. Who do you want to come back, and who do wave a fond farewell to?



Status, per Baseball Reference.



Jose Quintana, free agent.

Pete Alonso, free agent.

Sean Manaea, likely will exercise player option and be a free agent.

Luis Severino, free agent.

J.D. Martinez, free agent.

Harrison Bader, free agent.

Phil Maton, free agent.

Adam Ottavino, free agent.

Ryne Stanek, free agent.

Drew Smith, free agent.

Jesse Winker, free agent

[metirish]

I guess all of those guys are replaceable, probably not practical to replace all , but I'll keep



Sevy

Stanek

Winker

Pete

[Bob Alpacadaca]

=metirish post_id=177167 time=1729516765 user_id=72]
I guess all of those guys are replaceable, probably not practical to replace all , but I'll keep



Sevy

Stanek

Winker

Pete

Edited October 21, 2024 by Guest

[batmagadanleadoff]

Bob Alpacadaca wrote: =metirish post_id=177167 time=1729516765 user_id=72] I guess all of those guys are replaceable, probably not practical to replace all , but I'll keep Sevy Stanek Winker Pete

Good calls. Do you think Manaea will be too extensive [sic] to keep, or did we get the best of him this year?

[Benjamin Grimm]

I'd keep Stanek.



I think that at least one or two of Severino, Manaea, and Quintana will be back. I don't know which, but I'd like to keep Manaea.



Martinez is almost surely gone.



I expect the Mets will import an outfielder, and I know we all hope it will be Soto. If that happens, I'd consider Marte as a DH. Winker can return if they see that as a platoon thing.



I hope Pete stays, but I realize that that may not be the best long-term decision. It will be one of the major stories of the offseason for the Mets. My guess is that he's gone, only because Boras will keep him unsigned for too long. But we'll see.

[smg58]

I'm pretty sure Iglesias only has a one-year deal. (Which brings us back to the not-mutually-exclusive question of will he be too expensive to keep or did we get the best of him this year.)



I don't think price is really an issue -- we have freed up all the money we were paying Scherzer, Verlander, and a bunch of catchers -- so the question for me is more years than anything else. I'd bring back most of that list one one-year deals, but I'd only consider three for Manaea (and even then I'd prefer two).

[metirish]

I wouldn't mind having Sean back , probably will be hoping for three years ? Not sure about that, I think both he and Sevy enjoyed it here , but alas lots of teams will overpay for pitching

[Marshmallowmilkshake]

=smg58 post_id=177178 time=1729519307 user_id=62]
I'm pretty sure Iglesias only has a one-year deal. (Which brings us back to the not-mutually-exclusive question of will he be too expensive to keep or did we get the best of him this year.)



I don't think price is really an issue -- we have freed up all the money we were paying Scherzer, Verlander, and a bunch of catchers -- so the question for me is more years than anything else. I'd bring back most of that list one one-year deals, but I'd only consider three for Manaea (and even then I'd prefer two).

[Benjamin Grimm]

My hunch is that Baty will be traded, although there's a chance that they'd be selling low. I predict he'll go in part of a package for a starting pitcher who "needs a change of scenery".

[Gwreck]

Bob Alpacadaca wrote: Who do you want to come back, and who do wave a fond farewell to?

Farewell to: JD Martinez, Jose Quintana, Brooks Raley, Luis Severino



Would like to retain: Pete Alonso, Sean Manaea, Phil Maton (I believe the Mets have a club option)



Would consider retaining, on the right deal: Bader, Iglesias, Ottavino, Smith, Stanek, Winker

[MFS62]

I'd keep Quintana, even though he gives me agita when he pitches.

Also, Stanek and Maton among the pitchers. I think Manaea may have shot his wad and won't be the same going forward.

Certainly, sign Iglesias . Baty's gone.

I'd prefer a cheaper Alonso option as a power hitter, like a Santander.

Maybe: Winker (depending on what else they do in the outfield (Soto).

Severino and Martinez? bye bye. Maybe the MFY fans were right when they said you can't depend on him. I'd prefer not having to find out for another year.

Bader and Smith? nope

And what the heck is a Paul Blackburn, anyhow? good bye

And I'd personally drive Ottavino to the airport when he goes elsewhere.



Later

Edited October 21, 2024 by Guest

[Cowtipper]

Just looking at the pitching—



It's not their starting rotation that kept them from being a 95-win team. Assuming the purse strings are fully open, I'd bring back Severino, Quintana and Manaea. That should give the Mets a rotation of



Senga

Manaea

Peterson

Severino

Quintana



Not necessarily in that order. But the first four in the list could feasibly all be #1 starters depending on the team, based on their 2024 performances.



Megill's not good enough to give a starting spot to. Might be time to Lugo*/Butto him and put him in the bullpen. None of the minor league guys proved good enough yet to consider giving a spot to, either. So that should settle the rotation.



*of course, Lugo clearly WAS good enough to give a starting spot to



As for the bullpen—



Non-tender Reed Garrett. Say adios to Adam Ottavino. Say adios to Danny Young.



I haven't exhaustively gone through the 2024 roster, but that's what I would do so far.

[Benjamin Grimm]

=Cowtipper post_id=177188 time=1729525965 user_id=166]
Assuming the purse strings are fully open, I'd bring back Severino, Quintana and Manaea.

[Centerfield]

Regarding Iglesias, assuming he'd even be open to a utility/part-time role, I don't know if you necessarily have room for him.



Assume that there are 13 position players.



C: Alvarez.

1B: Alonso (or someone to replace him)

2B: McNeil

3B: Vientos

SS: Lindor



RF: Soto (or another impact bat)

LF: Nimmo

CF: Taylor

DH: Marte



That's 9 starters. Assume that Torrens is your backup catcher, and you have some sort of 4th OF (Bader-type/Winker etc). That leaves two bench positions for Acuna, Baty, Mauricio. Maybe Jett Williams will be ready sometime in 2025. I think you'd want that backup utility infielder to be someone willing to start the season at AAA. Meaning, we're probably looking for 2024 Iglesias, and not 2025 Iglesias.

[Centerfield]

My predictions.



Jose Quintana. GONE

Pete Alonso. GONE. Unfortunately. Similar to BG, I think someone will pay him more than Stearns is comfortable shelling out.

Sean Manaea. Back. On a 3 year deal.

Luis Severino. GONE

J.D. Martinez. GONE

Harrison Bader. GONE

Phil Maton. GONE, though I can see him coming back for less than his option.

Adam Ottavino. GONE

Ryne Stanek. GONE

Drew Smith. GONE

Jesse Winker. GONE

Jose Iglesias. GONE

[Gwreck]

I think the “we're not sure we have room for him” approach is misguided. There are always injuries and things moving around. You can worry about the roster cut-down in March. Sign the good players and then figure it out.



Now, if the Mets want to part with Iglesias because career-year-at-age-34 is not likely to be repeated, that's fine. But a “space” concern shouldn't even be entertained at this juncture, especially considering the Mets resources.

[Centerfield]

Certainly yes, it's best to stockpile as much talent as possible. But given the year he's had, he's certainly going to want a guaranteed contract. And with the crowded situation the Mets already have with backup infielders, I'm not sure they'll be in a position to give him one.



I think this is moot anyway. He just hit .337, with an .830 OPS and outstanding defense. I'm guessing he'll be certainly looking for a chance to start and more money than the Mets are willing to give him. Which, if that's the case, I'm fine to let him walk. It's great to catch lightning in a bottle. But as you suggest, I think these Dark Horse guys tend to have a bad track record of replicating their performances.

[MFS62]

And, fire the RiSP hitting coach.

Later

[DocTee]

I would like to move on from McNeil. There is organizational depth at the keystone. I'd prefer Iglesias who I think is a better mentor---and I think Vientos, among others, would benefit from that.



I would think Manaea follows his recent trend and opts out for a contract elsewhere, but I'd like him to stay for another two years (but not three).



I could move on from Severino and Quintana (particularly the latter).



I liked Bader but thought he was a reach at $10M/per. Winker is likewise expendable.



The bullpen should jettison Smith, Ottavino and Maton.



Martinez leaving is a foregone conclusion.



I don't think Alonso returns and I have mixed feelings about that: I'd like him to stay. he has come so far as a defender since Day 1 and busts his ass on every play---that will catch up to him as he ages, so don't want a long fat contract.

[Benjamin Grimm]

I'd like to see the Mets sign Vientos to a long-term deal that gets him two or three years past free agency. Other teams have done this with their young stars, and I think Vientos might be the guy for whom the Mets should do it.

[Frayed Knot]

Bob Alpacadaca wrote: Jose Quintana, free agent. Sean Manaea, likely will exercise player option and be a free agent. Luis Severino, free agent. Phil Maton, free agent. Adam Ottavino, free agent. Ryne Stanek, free agent. Drew Smith, free agent.

Another year, another off-season of re-making the majority of the pitching staff on the fly.

[Edgy MD]

No faith in that Senga/Peterson/Megill/Blackburn front four?

[Benjamin Grimm]

Not really. Senga and Peterson are a good start, but they need more.

[Edgy MD]

Max Kranick ain't stale raisin bread!

[Benjamin Grimm]

Wait, what? They can get stale raisin bread?!?!

[Cowtipper]

I'd like them to find a suitor for Edwin Diaz. He gave us five years of very up and down baseball. 2019 was awful, 2020 was great but stunted, 2021 was okay, 2022 was otherworldly, 2023 didn't happen, 2024 was pretty rough. Say adios to Diaz, as well.



That would leave the bullpen gutted, though they have the core of a great 'pen that their own farm system developed. Butto, Nunez, Megill could all be factors.



Bring back Maton, bring back Sean Reid-Foley, bring back Drew Smith, bring back Brooks Raley and you have:



Butto

Nunez

Megill

Maton

Raley

Reid-Foley

Smith

Lucchesi (see below)



That's just as reliable looking a group as the bullpen looked going into 2024, if not more. Butto and Nunez have a lot of upside. I'd say give Butto the closer's role. None of those guys, outside of Maton and Raley, are truly established major leaguers, but they all look good, no true gambles. I'd say the biggest gamble is SRF, but he was awesome during his brief run in 2024, so I'd say use him until he crumbles. The Mets started 2024 with a bunch of gambles: Diekman, Tonkin, Ramirez, Ottavino, Lopez. So that group might be even BETTER than what the Mets had in 2024, despite none of them being big names.



Say adios to Brazoban and Stanek.



Also, ditch Blackburn.



Bring Alex Young back on a minor league deal. Stash him away for when you need him. I was actually fairly impressed by him.



Now the Lucchesi conundrum. The Mets have done a lot to stall this guy's major league potential. He came up in 2018 and was solid in 2018 and 2019. The Mets have had him since 2021 and they've given him all of 95 1/3 innings since then, despite him having shown he could handle full seasons in the majors when he was with the Padres. I'd say either find a home for him on the big league roster or let him seek greener pastures elsewhere, but keeping him in limbo like they are isn't helping anybody. Maybe try putting HIM in the bullpen, too.



Grant Hartwig has been around a couple seasons, is 26, and hasn't proven to be too great. So maybe toss him to a team for a minor leaguer or two. You never know with minor leaguers. Acquiring minor leaguers is investing in the future.



They still have Ty Adcock, who'll become a minor league free agent soon, I believe. He was terrible at Triple-A (WHIP of nearly 2), so he can go.



Lastly, there's Eric Orze. Though he's 26, like Hartwig, he still hasn't had much of a chance to prove himself, and he tore it up at Triple-A. So, unlike Hartwig, I'd say keep an eye on Orze and don't ditch him.

[Lefty Specialist]

Raisin bread croutons!



Jose Quintana, free agent. Gone

Pete Alonso, free agent. Only if you can sign him for 5 years or less. He's not going to age well

Sean Manaea, likely will exercise player option and be a free agent. Yes, but 3 years max.

Luis Severino, free agent. No. Injury prone and we've seen the best. Even then he was declining by the end of the year.

J.D. Martinez, free agent. No

Harrison Bader, free agent. No, but I wouldn't be surprised if they signed him to a 1-year deal.

Phil Maton, free agent. Eh, maybe

Adam Ottavino, free agent. No

Ryne Stanek, free agent. Yes

Drew Smith, free agent. No. I'm done with him.

Jesse Winker, free agent Yes, but I think he'll sign elsewhere.



I also think McNeil needs to go- Mauricio and Acuna are knocking on the door. I would think Iglesias would want a full time job as well, which he wouldn't get here.

[metsmarathon]

=Cowtipper post_id=177264 time=1729596756 user_id=166]
I'd like them to find a suitor for Edwin Diaz. He gave us five years of very up and down baseball. 2019 was awful, 2020 was great but stunted, 2021 was okay, 2022 was otherworldly, 2023 didn't happen, 2024 was pretty rough. Say adios to Diaz, as well.

[Cowtipper]

He's damaged goods now.



The best closers blow games, but Edwin is far from being among the best closers, and he really hasn't been there since he left the Mariners, save for 2022.



Diaz blew seven saves this year. Fourth-most in the league. Awful.



The Cult of Diaz is insanely strong.



Most blown saves, 2019 to today:



https://i.imgur.com/XIQ9oFN.png>



That's insanely bad, considering he didn't even pitch in 2023, which would have inevitably made that number even worse.



See ya, Edwin!

[metsmarathon]

from 2019 to today, among all relievers who've thrown a total of 100ip or more, edwin diaz has the 6th best FIP at 2.64, and the 2nd best SIERA.



And that's with a garbage 2019 and a rollercoaster 2024.



I'll take it.