Peeping Pecota

[A Boy Named Seo]

PECOTA has gazed into its crystal ball for 2023 and projects your New York Mets to win 96 baseball games, 5 more than the Braves from Atlanta.



https://www.baseballprospectus.com/standings/https://www.baseballprospectus.com/standings/



As you'll recall from last year, PECOTA had the Mets pegged at 89 wins, which they overshot by a cool dozen. Last year's stuff -> https://www.thescore.com/mlb/news/2321890https://www.thescore.com/mlb/news/2321890



Consider this a warmup for your "Predict the Mets '23" thread, but do you think PECOTA knows Jack? How many dubs do you think the '23 Mets will capture?





Peeping Pecota

https://dejareviewer.files.wordpress.com/2021/08/is-george-mcfly-birdwatching.jpg>

[metsmarathon]

fangraphs predicts the mets and braves flip-flopped from pecota, with 95 wins for the braves and 92 for the mets.



i'm quite curious as to the major contributing sources to the disagreement between the two. i'm worried that fangraphs might be more right, just from the standpoint of there being a few more ways the mets could fall apart (literally) this year, what with old pitchers and such, whereas the braves really have to be worried about rookies and sophomores meeting expectations. i think we might have a higher ceiling, but also a lower floor, despite our seeming depth.



that said, regression aside, we've basically added to our 101-game winning team from last year. and it's not like that team was loaded with outlier performances. so... fuck it. i'll go 100 wins. if we bonk, blame me.

[metirish]

I went 92-95 , just think it would be hard to top last seasons win total... As ever health is key with this rotation topped by two older pitchers.

[The Hot Corner]

I think the are good for 96 wins this year. The most important thing is to get hot in the post season.

[DocTee]

Where do these guys have Philadelphia? They scare me more than Atlanta

[MFS62]

I look at the ages of the starters and the thin outfield and think they'll win fewer that the projections.

Shit happens.

89-91



Later

[Frayed Knot]

=DocTee post_id=118479 time=1676668364 user_id=85]
Where do these guys have Philadelphia?

[A Boy Named Seo]

101 again seems pretty lofty (their Pythagorean last year was 99, FWIW).



I kinda think Senga/Quintana and Bassitt/Walker will be a wash and Cookie was slightly below league average. deGrom is probably better than Verlander on paper, but I'd be way surprised if the Mets actually got less quality production out of Verlander than the Rangers will get out of JdG this year. So I don't think regression will come from the rotation.



Top candidates for regression in my eyes:



Edwin (even if he's great, it will be hard to be '22 great again)

Pete (kinda the same as Edwin, 40 bombs/146 OPS+ might be hard to hit again, but hopefully not a huge drop)

McNeil?

Ottovino?

Drew Smith??



I think 100 is a realistic goal but I think they might stall out at 95-98.

[Fman99]

I feel like they're 97-65 material

[whippoorwill]

92-95

[Johnny Lunchbucket]

95 is a lot for any team in February

[kcmets]

102 or more (explain yourself)

103, I'm giddy and gay for the 2023 Mets.

[Frayed Knot]

=whippoorwill post_id=118489 time=1676685556 user_id=79]92-95