The New deGrom Deserves His Own Thread Again Thread

[Lefty Specialist]

He'll be looking for at least 4 years and in excess of $40 mil a year. At that price and length, I let him walk. Uncle Steve has unlimited money, but that doesn't mean he'll SPEND unlimited money. I have a feeling that deGrom will be in for a steep decline. We still don't really know what exactly happened to him last year, and he seems to always be one pitch away from another mysterious IL stint. He was not right his last few starts this year, just from the eye test, not inside medical knowledge.



I think any team that signs him long-term (including the Mets) will regret it. And he won't do a short-term deal because he'll just have to do this all over again. He wants his last big payday now, and somebody will give it to him.

[Gwreck]

=Ceetar post_id=111465 time=1666039207 user_id=102]Steve Cohen's net worth has increased more than 10x that just this year. I'm not sure he can afford it.

[Johnny Lunchbucket]

I can't think on this without regretting letting Wheeler walk.



He was healthy. I'm not certain that degrom can be deGrom and stay healthy. He probably signs with the Braves.

[smg58]

Wheeler has had his three best seasons since walking. He wasn't close to this good as a Met, which makes me wonder if there was a problem with how we handled him.



As for deGrom, I'm willing to go 3 and $105 on him. If he can do better, let him do better.

[Ceetar]

=smg58 post_id=111489 time=1666097846 user_id=62]
Wheeler has had his three best seasons since walking. He wasn't close to this good as a Met, which makes me wonder if there was a problem with how we handled him.

[The Hot Corner]

With all the holes that the Mets will need to address this offseason, I believe it is foolish to commit too heavily to any one individual such that the team can not adequately afford to fill the remaining holes.



It's nice to believe there is no limitation on what the Mets can afford to spend in order to build the team for 2023 and beyond. However, I do not think it is realistic to believe that funds are limitless. Yes, Steve Cohen is enormously wealthy, but he, as do virtually all businesses and individuals have budgets. To think the funds available to the Mets are virtually limitless is folly.



I definitely would keep all lines of communication open with DeGrom, but if retaining him for 3-4 years costs so much that the Mets are unable to address Nimmo, Diaz, multiple openings in the rotation, an upgrade at catcher, and some bullpen help, then it is better to let him walk in my view.

[Ceetar]

The problem is you can't replace deGrom, he's too good. Any budgeting means giving innings to lesser guys. That's poor budgeting. Overpay at the top, and budget in the middle.

[Marshmallowmilkshake]

The Hot Corner wrote: With all the holes that the Mets will need to address this offseason, I believe it is foolish to commit too heavily to any one individual such that the team can not adequately afford to fill the remaining holes. It's nice to believe there is no limitation on what the Mets can afford to spend in order to build the team for 2023 and beyond. However, I do not think it is realistic to believe that funds are limitless. Yes, Steve Cohen is enormously wealthy, but he, as do virtually all businesses and individuals have budgets. To think the funds available to the Mets are virtually limitless is folly. I definitely would keep all lines of communication open with DeGrom, but if retaining him for 3-4 years costs so much that the Mets are unable to address Nimmo, Diaz, multiple openings in the rotation, an upgrade at catcher, and some bullpen help, then it is better to let him walk in my view.

This is where I'm kind of at, too. You can buy a lot of everyday pieces, or one huge everyday piece, for $45 million. If I had more confidence that he could pitch a whole season, I might think differently. I do wonder the size of the pool of potential suitors. How many teams would be able to take a $45 million gamble? I know all it takes is one to lose him.



I don't think the Mets let Stroman "slip away." I think they made a decision to not resign him based on a number of factors, on and off the field.

Edited October 20, 2022 by Guest

[Ceetar]

so racism them? that's the only "off the field" issue with Stroman.



wouldn't surprise me, given that they're already pretty misogynistic, why not add racism?

[Edgy MD]

Because it's the sort of thing I'd rather have meaningful amount of evidence for.



I think Occam's Razor would suggest the Mets simply didn't see him as worth what it would cost to sign him. Billy Eppler had only been on the job for two weeks at the time, so it was a tough time to make big commitments.



Also, they were working on bigger.



If you're going to make a mistake, letting someone walk in free agency is almost always the mistake to make, because you get a second chance to do right with the money you didn't spend.



Baseball-reference credits Marcus Stroman with 2.5 WAR, and fangraphs says 2.0. The best of those two figures suggests he cost $10,000,000 per WAR. I don't think his case is particularly instructive in confronting the decisions the team will have with regard to Jacob deGrom.

[Ceetar]

it's extremely instructive, because if the Mets had another above average starting pitcher under contract, it would lessen there need this offseason. It was a foreseeable situation, and their decisions last year play in. Eppler wasn't here, but Sandy and Steve and the rest of the front office mostly was. And let's not forget the reason Eppler only just got here.

[Edgy MD]

Extremely instructive.



Understood.

[Edgy MD]

I don't think you use the word "instructive" in the sense that I do.



As for "if the Mets had another above average starting pitcher under contract, it would lessen there need this offseason," that's true, but it's true every offseason, with every team. Still, there's a limit to the number of MLB starting pitchers a team can stockpile.

[Ceetar]

it's differently true every offseason, for every team. The Mets knew, in part by future decisions, that they were going to have a bunch of important SP free agents this offseason. There's plenty of value in trying to lock up one through this year (could've been deGrom! I was suggesting they offer Thor 2/$30+ just to sorta bridge that gap). And even without that, the decisions that make in one offseason for starting pitching.

[Edgy MD]

=Ceetar post_id=111649 time=1666294470 user_id=102]it's differently true every offseason, for every team.

[Ceetar]

I mean, i described how. If you don't want to accept that data, that's fine. But it's sitting right there just waiting to be tabulated.

[whippoorwill]

The Hot Corner wrote: With all the holes that the Mets will need to address this offseason, I believe it is foolish to commit too heavily to any one individual such that the team can not adequately afford to fill the remaining holes. It's nice to believe there is no limitation on what the Mets can afford to spend in order to build the team for 2023 and beyond. However, I do not think it is realistic to believe that funds are limitless. Yes, Steve Cohen is enormously wealthy, but he, as do virtually all businesses and individuals have budgets. To think the funds available to the Mets are virtually limitless is folly. I definitely would keep all lines of communication open with DeGrom, but if retaining him for 3-4 years costs so much that the Mets are unable to address Nimmo, Diaz, multiple openings in the rotation, an upgrade at catcher, and some bullpen help, then it is better to let him walk in my view.

Bravo!

[Edgy MD]

=Ceetar post_id=111661 time=1666298317 user_id=102]
I mean, i described how.

[metsmarathon]

stroman pitched well this season, and very well at the end. if you compare ERA, FIP, and some other fancy stats with lots of letters, he did about the same as bassitt. by some measures better, others, worse.



of course, he also pitched 50 fewer innings than c-bass, and was very bad and hurt (and also covid) in the first half of the season, when we would have needed him the most.



with him on the roster, we would not have traded for bassitt, who really helped stabilize our rotation for most of the season. and we would not have had the $17M difference in their salaries to allocate elsewhere.



i'm skeptical that bassitt will get paid appreciably more than $25M next year, as well.



as much as i liked stroman, the mets were a better team this past season without him.



now, you might be tempted to say, oh, but what about the postseason? well, while bassitt disappointed this year, and carries a career 4.20 era in 15 post season innings, stro has a 4.40 in 30 innings. and while the postseason is a small sample crapshoot designed to cause people to make faulty inferences, it's not like we would have had the legend of andy pettitte starting meaningful october baseball games for us.



so if you want to say, "oh, marcus stroman is proof positive that we're screwed this offseason" i think you cannot reach that conclusion reliably until after the offseason. there are plenty of baseball decisions waiting to be made. but right now, you're sitting on a position of "i wish we paid a guy $25M this year for $16M of value this year, and are on the hook to pay him up to $48M the next two years, instead of having paid $8M for a guy who just produced $21M of value." which seems like an odd hill to die on, but... you do you.

[kcmets]

So does deGrom have to wait until a certain time to 'officially' announce his

plans or are they in essence already announced?

[Lefty Specialist]

=kcmets post_id=112006 time=1666872011 user_id=53]
So does deGrom have to wait until a certain time to 'officially' announce his

plans or are they in essence already announced?

[batmagadanleadoff]

Lefty Specialist wrote: So does deGrom have to wait until a certain time to 'officially' announce his plans or are they in essence already announced? He has 5 days after the end of the World Series to announce his intentions.

I don't think deGrom has to announce anything. Free agency "happens" automatically, no matter what the player says. Or doesn't say.



All eligible players automatically become free agents on a certain date, which I think is the day after the WS ends, but it could be five days after the WS ends. Then there is a five day period where the player's last team has exclusive negotiating rights -- in deGrom's case, that would obviously be the Mets. If deGrom is still unsigned after that five day period, he becomes an unrestricted free agent and he may negotiate with any other team, not just the Mets. This would be so even if he got a tattoo on his forehead stating that he's not a free agent.



That's how I think it works, more or less.

Edited October 27, 2022 by Guest

[Edgy MD]

Free agency at the end of a contract may seem to happen automatically (though an official filing is still required). Exercising an out-clause option in the middle of a contract, though, does not happen automatically.

[kcmets]

I was referring to the option, Edgy beat me by this much...

[batmagadanleadoff]

Edgy MD wrote: Free agency at the end of a contract may seem to happen automatically (though an official filing is still required). Exercising an out-clause option in the middle of a contract, though, does not happen automatically.

True.

[batmagadanleadoff]

=kcmets post_id=112043 time=1666903680 user_id=53]
I was referring to the option, Edgy beat me by this much...

[kcmets]

[Lefty Specialist]

Benjamin Grimm wrote: The opt-out is official: https://nypost.com/2022/11/07/mlb-free-agency-jacob-degrom-officially-opts-out-of-mets-contract/Jacob deGrom officially opts out of Mets contract to become free agent Taijuan Walker has also opted out.

Kick the tires on deGrom to see what he wants. I expect it'll be outrageous. Then move on.



I'd like to keep Walker if possible.



What I fear is that a lot of FA's may ask more from the Mets than other teams, just because of Uncle Steve's money.

[metsmarathon]

fangraphs has degrom as the 4th best free agent available this offseason.



Their expert predicts 3x47, though hte crowdsourcing estimates about 3x40 or so.



that's steep but... man... degrom is so good [asterisk]



[asterisk] when healthy

[Edgy MD]

Guys in deGrom's position don't make offers. They field them. You see what he wants by seeing if he likes what you're pitching.