Reintroducing the NHOP!

[Benjamin Grimm]

True. The St. Louis numbers are contingent on a division title.

[Lefty Specialist]

Well, we can only nhope.

[Benjamin Grimm]

Happy Outcomes (1): Braves lost.

Unhappy Outcomes (2): Mets lost, Dodgers won.



Cardinals, Phillies, Padres, and Brewers all had the day off.

[TABLE]
[TR]

[TH]Team[/th]	[TH]Goal[/th]	[TH]Remaining Games[/th]	[TH]Remaining Games vs Mets[/th]	[TH]Mets Magic Number[/th]	[TH]NHOP[/th]

[Frayed Knot]

So even though Grimm's grid above lists only the realistic NL playoff contenders, I'd just like to point out that, thanks to the newly expanded playoff

system, only PIT, WAS, & OAK have been officially eliminated even as we're down to 20-ish games left to play and each of those clubs are candidates

to lose 100+ games. Such 'inclusion' is of course the whole point behind expanded playoffs, to reward mediocrity and to keep alive, even among the

sub-mediocres for as long as possible, the idea that they're merely a hot-streak or two away from contention.

Participation trophies and orange slices will be available in the lobby.





The Dodgers, currently on pace for 111 wins, are the only club in either league so far to clinch a playoff spot.

[Willets Point]

And while you're at it, keep of FK's lawn.

[Gwreck]

Frayed Knot wrote: Such 'inclusion' is of course the whole point behind expanded playoffs, to reward mediocrity and to keep alive, even among the sub-mediocres for as long as possible, the idea that they're merely a hot-streak or two away from contention.

Disagree. The point behind expanded playoffs is to increase revenue by having more playoff games. That's far and away the driving factor behind expansion.



There are some downstream effects, sure, but no one is deceived into thinking that Kansas City or Miami or Anaheim is in a playoff race, nor is there some reward to those teams for not being officially eliminated yet.



There have been no more than 7 (maybe 8) teams in each league with any realistic chance of making the playoffs and it's been that way for weeks.

[Frayed Knot]

Well of course it's revenue they're after. But part of the drive for revenue is convincing teams/fans that they're still 'in it' deeper into the season despite muddling along somewhere in the middle of the pack. The number of teams that affects will vary from year to year (this season is more have/have-not than most) but 'giving more teams a chance' is often the stated goal of playoff expansion proponents.

[metsmarathon]

in the NL, last year, around this time in the season (i'm not checking exact games-played situations here), there were 8 teams with less than a 10% chance of making the playoffs, per fangraphs. one of those teams was the cardinals, who actually made it. jerks. so, 7 teams were in it, until an 8th crashed the party.



in the NL his year, there are 8 teams with less than a 10% chance of making the playoffs, as of today. in fact, those 8 teams all have about a zero percent chance of making the playoffs, and have for a while. which means we have a party of 7 again, with no uninvited guests.



so, last year was a more inclusive environment. in the NL at least.



the AL is more inclusive this year, with a party of 7 compared to a party of 6 last year. although, last year, seattle and oakland were seen hanging around outside waiting for the bouncer to turn his back. the twins have recently been disinvited from this year's party, so i'll give the inclusive edge to the '22 AL



in other words, the playoff format hasn't _really_ rewarded all that much more mediocrity than last years, if at all.

[Frayed Knot]

As I said, the circumstances will vary from year to year but, over the long run, adding a 3rd WC team almost assures that there will be more teams statistically

"still in it" later into the season simply on the basis that that more teams will be within striking distance to the 3rd best non-division-leading team than they'll

be to the 2nd best non-division-leading team.

[Benjamin Grimm]

Yesterday was almost a complete disaster. Only one Happy Outcome, a loss by the Cardinals, which is definitely of lesser importance than the other outcomes.

Six Unhappy Outcomes: A loss by the Mets and wins by the Dodgers, Braves, Phillies, Padres, and Brewers.

[TABLE]
[TR]

[TH]Team[/th]	[TH]Goal[/th]	[TH]Remaining Games[/th]	[TH]Remaining Games vs Mets[/th]	[TH]Mets Magic Number[/th]	[TH]NHOP[/th]

[Centerfield]

I'm pretty sure that we've been shit since NHOP returned.

[Frayed Knot]

btw, the Cards are 29 - 11 since the 1st of August and are perfectly capable (starting to border on 'likely') of blowing right past the Mets and sending them into 1st round October purgatory even if we somehow hold onto the NLE lead.

[Gwreck]

Cardinals would be 5 back with a Mets loss tonight. Mets also hold the tiebreaker having won the season series, so it's really a 6 game lead.

[Frayed Knot]

=Gwreck post_id=107368 time=1663206561 user_id=56]
Cardinals would be 5 back with a Mets loss tonight. Mets also hold the tiebreaker having won the season series, so it's really a 6 game lead.

[Benjamin Grimm]

As bad as yesterday was, we ended up with more Happy Outcomes (4) than Unhappy Outcomes (3).



Happy: Losses by the Braves, Padres, Brewers, and Dodgers.

Unhappy: Loss by the Mets, wins by the Phillies and Cardinals.



The Mets really need to get on track if they want that first-round bye, but the consolation prize of the Wild Card round is still looking very likely. For now, anyway.

[TABLE]
[TR]

[TH]Team[/th]	[TH]Goal[/th]	[TH]Remaining Games[/th]	[TH]Remaining Games vs Mets[/th]	[TH]Mets Magic Number[/th]	[TH]NHOP[/th]

[Benjamin Grimm]

Yesterday was a perfect day, NHOP-wise. (That's a word you don't see every day.)



Four Happy Outcomes: A win by the Mets and losses by the Phillies, Padres, and Cardinals.



Braves, Dodgers, and Brewers were idle.



The Mets only have to go 6 and 11 (a .353 pace) to clinch a playoff spot. They should probably, however, aspire to do a bit better than that.

[TABLE]
[TR]

[TH]Team[/th]	[TH]Goal[/th]	[TH]Remaining Games[/th]	[TH]Remaining Games vs Mets[/th]	[TH]Mets Magic Number[/th]	[TH]NHOP[/th]

[Frayed Knot]

Benjamin Grimm wrote: The Mets only have to go 6 and 11 (a .353 pace) to clinch a playoff spot. They should probably, however, aspire to do a bit better than that.

For their psyche (and mine) as much as anything else, especially so after leading the division for 120 of the last 121 days (or whatever it is).

As far as I'm concerned, if a team makes the 'post-season' as a WC then immediately gets bounced in the 1st round then they've only "sort

of" made the playoffs and in this era of an ever expanding field this only becomes more true.

So, yeah, the only 'Magic Number' I care about here is the one that gets us ahead of the Braves.





Braves are back home starting tonight following their lengthy west coast swing and the entire remainder of their schedule is against teams

in the NL East: PHI x 3; WSH x 3; @PHI x 4; @WSH x 3; NYM x 3; @MIA x 3

Probably not smart to count on a lot of help from the Nats or Fish. The Braves & Phils have so far split their first 12 meetings which is semi-

encouraging as most of those games came after June 1 when los Bravos got hot.

[Edgy MD]

I've got another magic number worth caring about — the one that gets the Mets three games ahead of the Braves before the head-to-head matchup in the next-to-last series.

[TransMonk]

Yeah, it would be so great not to have to sweat that last week before the necessary sweating of the postseason begins.

[Benjamin Grimm]

Edgy MD wrote: I've got another magic number worth caring about — the one that gets the Mets three games ahead of the Braves before the head-to-head matchup in the next-to-last series.

That Magic Number is the same 17, you're just hoping that the Mets get there six games before the end of the season.



The Mets have ten games remaining before that series with the Braves, and the Braves have twelve. To reduce the Magic Number by 17 over 22 games, the NHOP would be .773; things would have to go our way more than three quarters of the time.





For today's NHOP update, we had only two Happy Outcomes yesterday, and one of them was more Unhappy than Happy; the Phillies' loss to the Braves. Nevertheless...



Happy Outcomes (2): Mets win, Phillies lose.

Unhappy Outcomes (5): Dodgers, Braves, Cardinals, Padres, Brewers win.



The Magic Number over the Brewers is down to 5. If the Mets were to lose all 16 of their remaining games, the Brewers would have to go 14-4 to keep the Mets out of the postseason.



So the Mets will clinch a playoff berth within a few days, most likely, and at that point the division title will still be very much in doubt. Do teams break out the champagne when a Wild Card is clinched even though the division title is still in play? I would think not, but I don't know what the precedent is. The Mets have won the Wild Card three times (1999, 2000, 2016) and as far as I can recall, each time by the point when they had clinched the Wild Card, they had either been eliminated from winning the division or it was unrealistic.




[TABLE]
[TR]

[TH]Team[/th]	[TH]Goal[/th]	[TH]Remaining Games[/th]	[TH]Remaining Games vs Mets[/th]	[TH]Mets Magic Number[/th]	[TH]NHOP[/th]

[Willets Point]

But the Brewers beat the Yankees which is a happy outcome in my book.

[Benjamin Grimm]

Benjamin Grimm wrote: Do teams break out the champagne when a Wild Card is clinched even though the division title is still in play? I would think not, but I don't know what the precedent is. The Mets have won the Wild Card three times (1999, 2000, 2016) and as far as I can recall, each time by the point when they had clinched the Wild Card, they had either been eliminated from winning the division or it was unrealistic.

Gary Cohen wondering the same thing.

[Benjamin Grimm]

For the second day in a row, we had only two Happy Outcomes, with one of them more Unhappy than Happy; the Phillies' loss to the Braves.



Happy Outcomes (2): Mets win, Phillies lose.

Unhappy Outcomes (6): Wins by the Dodgers, Braves, Padres, Brewers and a doubleheader sweep by the Cardinals.



The Mets could clinch their spot in the postseason as early as tomorrow with three outcomes: Mets beat the Pirates today, Yankees beat the Brewers today, and Mets beat the Brewers tomorrow.

[TABLE]
[TR]

[TH]Team[/th]	[TH]Goal[/th]	[TH]Remaining Games[/th]	[TH]Remaining Games vs Mets[/th]	[TH]Mets Magic Number[/th]	[TH]NHOP[/th]

[Benjamin Grimm]

Yesterday:



Happy Outcomes (4): Mets win, Phillies, Cardinals, Brewers lose.

Unhappy Outcomes (3): Braves, Padres, Dodgers win.



The Mets can clinch a postseason spot tonight with a win in Milwaukee. If that happens, both Gary Cohen and I have been wondering what form the celebration might take. From the Brewers' standpoint, it wouldn't knock them out of contention, it would just officially eliminate their slim hope of having a first-round bye.



Meanwhile, the Padres have switched places with the Phillies on our little chart.

[TABLE]
[TR]

[TH]Team[/th]	[TH]Goal[/th]	[TH]Remaining Games[/th]	[TH]Remaining Games vs Mets[/th]	[TH]Mets Magic Number[/th]	[TH]NHOP[/th]

[Edgy MD]

Milwaukee is joined in their still-alive-ness by three entries from The Pesky West — San Francisco, Arizona, and Colorado. All have a non-zero elimination number, but it would take a cataclysmic turn of events for any of them to qualify for post-season play.Colorado should be eliminated tonight.



The main remaining drama:

• Can the Brewers catch the Phils or Pads for the last playoff spot?


• Can the Mets hold off the Braves for the division titie and bye?

Both those plots get played out in one game tonight.

[Benjamin Grimm]

Two Happy Outcomes yesterday: A Mets win and a Brewers loss.

Two Unhappy Outcomes: Braves and Dodgers win.

The Phillies, Cardinals, and Padres were idle.



The Mets have become the third team to clinch a postseason spot this year, following the Dodgers and the Astros.



The Brewers now fall off our chart, as they can no longer end the season with a better record than the Mets. They remain a possible playoff opponent, however. If the Mets fail to win the division, their first-round matchup will likely be either the Padres, Phillies, or Brewers. If they do win the division and advance directly to the NLDS, their foe will be one of those three teams, or the Cardinals.



The Mets have never played a postseason game against the Padres, Phillies, or Brewers.

[TABLE]
[TR]

[TH]Team[/th]	[TH]Goal[/th]	[TH]Remaining Games[/th]	[TH]Remaining Games vs Mets[/th]	[TH]Mets Magic Number[/th]	[TH]NHOP[/th]

[Gwreck]

Does the St. Louis number reflect the win in the season series (and therefore tiebreak in the Mets' favor in the event of a tie?)

[Benjamin Grimm]

It does now! I must have forgotten to update the number; the Magic Number over the Cardinals is 7. The most games they can win is 101, and the Mets need seven more to match that total.

[Benjamin Grimm]

Yesterday:



Four Happy Outcomes: Win by the Mets, losses by the Phillies, Dodgers, and Cardinals.

Three Unhappy Outcomes: Wins by the Dodgers (they split a doubleheader), Braves, and Padres.



The Phillies now disappear from this chart as, at best, they can finish with the same record as the Mets, and the Mets own the tiebreaker as a result of winning the season series.



With the Brewers and Phillies now eliminated (at least from the Mets' perspective) the Mets, at worst, will be the Second Wild Card. Should they fail to win the division title, their first-round opponent in the Wild Card series will not be the N.L. Central division winner, who will most likely be the Cardinals.



Meanwhile, the Braves have clinched their playoff spot, joining the Dodgers, Astros, and Mets in the green room for the postseason.

[TABLE]
[TR]

[TH]Team[/th]	[TH]Goal[/th]	[TH]Remaining Games[/th]	[TH]Remaining Games vs Mets[/th]	[TH]Mets Magic Number[/th]	[TH]NHOP[/th]

[Edgy MD]

Clinching the second wild card should be a second party!