Can You Cano?

[Centerfield]

Looks like it just went official. It’s $20 million. Not $60.

I give up.

[metsmarathon]

does this at least maybe hopefully mean that the wilpons aren't skinflint cheapasses for the upcoming season? i mean, if they're just gonna throw money away and all...

though i've yet to really see actual confirmation on the $20M figure. that's where i'm pegging all of my hopeful energies...

[metirish]

A lot of the MLB writers on Twitter are saying this is 5 years for Cano at $63 million once all the $$$$$ are factored in, whatever, hope it all works out

[Theoldmole]

I absolutely do not care about the money end of it. It’s not my money. My only concern is whether this makes them a better team. And a worry that settles over me every time the Mets get a star infielder from the American League. The record is not good.

[ashie62]

We get an ace closer, why would Seattle even move Diaz??? Yikes

Bruce and Swarzak were expendable

I am cautiously optimistic

[Guest LeiterWagnerFasterStrongr]

TheOldMole wrote: I absolutely do not care about the money end of it. It’s not my money. My only concern is whether this makes them a better team.

Considering how this team has operated over the past decade or so, the two are inextricably related. Hell, they're causally linked.

First, if they're getting this little compensation in return for accepting Cano's salary, the prospect cost of obtaining Diaz should be a lot less than it apparently is. That it isn't affects the team's theoretical ability to compete in the near-to-long-term future by either robbing them of a future on-field asset or someone else Kelenic/Dunn could have helped bring in trade.

Second, since they're getting this little compensation in return, that impacts their ability to bring in additional players on the FA market.

That they're getting this little compensation in return makes this a trade they probably should have let others outbid them to make. The money matters.

[Mex17]

metirish wrote: A lot of the MLB writers on Twitter are saying this is 5 years for Cano at $63 million once all the $$$$$ are factored in, whatever, hope it all works out

Yeah, but is that going to work out in real time once Bruce and Swarzak are actually off the books? It seems to me that it all depends on how and when the $20 million is going to come over.

We would not need a penny of it this year since Bruce's $14.5 million (salary plus portion of signing bonus owed in 2019) and Swarzak's $8 million mean that Cano is effectively being paid $1.5 million by the Mets this year. In 2020, you can subtract another $14.5 for Bruce and now Cano is only owed $9.5 million, which would probably be reasonable if you are singing a 37 year old with Cano's track record to a one year contract. So I would be totally fine if Seattle sends us zero dollars over the first two years.

That leaves three more years where Cano is owed $24 million per and now you would have $20 million from Seattle to allocate over those three years. The best i can figure it is thusly. . .

2021 (age 38 season): $24 million - $4 million from Seattle = $20 million
2022 (age 39 season): $24 million - $6 million from Seattle = $18 million
2023 (age 40 season): $24 million - $10 million from Seattle = $14 million

Is that what BVW worked out? Will we ever know if he did one way or the other? I have no idea.

Edited December 2, 2018 by Guest

[smg58]

This assumes that Bruce and Swarzak are completely valueless in the meantime, which is naive at best.

[Benjamin Grimm]

Does this qualify as good news???

Edwin Diaz’s bone spur condition hasn’t been a problem yet

[Mex17]

smg58 wrote: This assumes that Bruce and Swarzak are completely valueless in the meantime, which is naive at best.

I'm not sure what you are getting at here. I'm talking pure dollars and cents and arithmetic.

[Centerfield]

You’re discounting their entire salaries. This deduction is incorrect unless the players are completely valueless.

If the Mets offered to pay $20 million of Bruce’s salary, most teams would want him. And maybe even give up a prospect or two.

If that number dropped to half his salary, there would still be several teams interested. Especially in the AL where he could DH.

The Mets needed only one team to bite, so they might have been able to get away with paying even less.

So that means you can’t deduct the full salary. Only what they would have been stuck with in a prospective deal with another team.

[Mex17]

Centerfield wrote: You’re discounting their entire salaries.

Of course I am. They are off the Mets payroll and are being paid by Seattle. In turn, Cano is off Seattle's payroll and is being paid by the Mets.

I'm not dealing with sabermetrics and speculation here, even if you are. I'm talking only about this deal, these salaries, and math.

[Guest d'Kong76]

Put me down for a big fat UGG if this becomes official with only $20 mil coming
back. Everyone and their sisters thought Cano's contract was for way too much
when he signed and now the cash-strapped Mets are going to bail out the latter
years? It's a nightmare in the making. Diaz? Bone spurs? Jesus, Mary and Jose!

[Benjamin Grimm]

Well, the bone spur hasn't been a problem yet!

I admire the right margin in your post. Did you do that intentionally?

[Chad ochoseis]

Much of this is about the total disconnect between cost and value in MLB.

Cano is owed $120M for 5 years. He's still good; even assuming he won't stay that way for more than a few years, the value of his service is probably about $30M.

Diaz is under team control for 3 years. Figure with arbitration, he'll cost about $6M for that period. The value of three years of his service is probably about $60M

So the Mets are taking on $126M in salary from the Mariners for about $90M of value. The "when" of this makes absolutely no difference; we're paying $126M and getting about $90M in value back. So there's a deficit of $36M.

------

Bruce is owed $28M for 2 years. He's probably still better than replacement value, but not much. Figure his value is $3M for two years of service.

Swarzak is owed $8.5M for 1 year. His actual value is probably about $1M.

The Mariners are adding $20M

So the Mets are giving up $4M of value and getting $56.5M in return, effectively gaining $52.5M.

------

So, effectively, the Mets are ahead $16.5M before considering the value of Kelenic and Dunn.

I like keeping prospects. They're low risk, high reward plays. Even if four prospects out of five wind up going to law school or becoming managers at the local Wal-Mart, the failure is more than offset by having six years of low-cost team control over the one guy who stays on and turns into a solid major leaguer, or even a star. And Kelenic has star potential. I'd say his value and Dunn's combined is a little more than $16.5M.

All in all, like most trades, this one is roughly a wash in terms of value. Maybe a little bit of an edge to Seattle. And although Diaz fills a need, Cano doesn't, though the team is improved with Cano at 2nd, McNeil at 3rd, and Frazier on the bench, if that's the plan. So I wouldn't have made this trade, though I'm not breaking out the pitchforks and torches over it.

One worry I have is that when Cano starts falling apart a few years down the road, which is inevitable, the Mets are going to be afraid to DFA him and eat his salary, forgetting that the salary he's paid was really for Edwin Diaz's services, not Cano's. Cano's just the one getting the money; Diaz is earning it. That sucks for Diaz and is great for Cano, but shouldn't matter to the rest of us.

[MFS62]

You still have to have a lead in a game before you need a closer.
And how many times did we feel frustrated by the Mets offense last year, especially when DeGrom pitched?
Now lets see what they can do to address other needs before we assess the impact of Diaz.


Later

[Centerfield]

If you’re talking about who is paying what, then you can’t say that the Mets are “effectively” paying Cano $1.5 million this year. Your logic doesn’t add up.

You can’t discount the full salary of Bruce and Swarzak.

If you go strictly by who is paying what, the Mets are paying $20 million for the next five years.

[Guest LeiterWagnerFasterStrongr]

Chad Ochoseis wrote: I'd say his value and Dunn's combined is a little more than $15.5M.

I ain't no perfesshnul baseball val-you-ate-er, er what fer... But ah 'spect this here's a MASSIVE undervaluation of two top-100 prospects, even if you build a significant amount of risk into the pricing.

Even if they end up as three years of cost-controlled bench-player/middle-reliever (right around the fattest part of the possible-results bell curve, yeah?), that in and of itself would probs be worth in the tens of millions in surplus value (assuming the FA price of WAR stays at, like, 8M per). Their real value is-- WAG alert!-- probably more in the $50-60M range. (Consider how many of these move for a guy like Paxton.)

[Benjamin Grimm]

The only math that matters here is the math that the Wilpons are doing, regardless of whether or not it's accurate.

If they think/i] this deal gives them more money to spend, then hopefully they'll spend more money.

[Guest LeiterWagnerFasterStrongr]

Fair point. But they got significantly less money back than previously rumored/expected, Grimmy. Do you think that makes them more likely to splash the pot, FA-wise?

[smg58]

In 2017, Bruce and Swarzak together were worth more than Cano. Last year they both played hurt. Bruce had an OPS over .800 when he returned, which was perfectly in line with what he normally does when healthy. That won't make anybody take on his full contract by itself, but he's worth a lot more than $3M over 2 years. It's also worth mentioning that they're both younger.

So Cano has hung around 3 WAR for three of the last 4 seasons. Let's start with that as his baseline. He's 36, so we'll go with 3, 2.5, 2, 1.5, and 1 WAR over his five seasons. That's 10 WAR, worth roughly $80M. The Mariners are eating $20M, so he's at -$20M by himself.

Bruce has 2.4 WAR combined over the last two seasons. We'll go with that as his median likely value, making him at -$7M by himself.

Swarzak has 2.0 WAR combined over his last two seasons. 1 WAR is worth $8M, so he's break-even.

So you're counting on four years of Diaz being worth $13M more than what Kellenic, Dunn, and Bautista can do before free agency. Diaz had 3.2 WAR in a year he's not likely to top, but we'll be optimistic and give him 12 WAR over the next 4 years. We'll also give him salaries of $0.5M, $7.2M, $10.8M, and $14.4M -- so we'll say $96M of value for a $33M cost, for a $63M net. Make no mistakes, HE'S the key to the deal. If he pitches to last year for four straight years with us, the deal will look all right. But that's not a guarantee.

The gamble is that Kellenic, Dunn, and Bautista will combine for value less than $50M, or a bit more than 6 WAR, above their pre-free agency salaries, assuming we get four years like 2017 from Diaz. Basically, two good years (or one exceptional year) from one of these guys makes it a push.

I do think it's fair to say that the deal makes the 2019 Mets better. But it's also perfectly fair to ask if the improvement could have been made in a less costly fashion.

[Guest d'Kong76]

Benjamin Grimm wrote: I admire the right margin in your post. Did you do that intentionally?

Call me OCD, mentally ill or just plain bonkers... I like me a tidy post!

[Edgy MD]

[fimg=450]http://www.gstatic.com/tv/thumb/persons/402/402_v9_ba.jpg[/fimg]
"I tell ya, this deal is taking a longer time to consummate than my
MARRIAGE! You kidding me?"

[Guest d'Kong76]

Dr. Vinny Boombatz has been oddly quiet on this on the twitter this weekend.

[Centerfield]

LeiterWagnerFasterStrongr wrote: Fair point. But they got significantly less money back than previously rumored/expected, Grimmy. Do you think that makes them more likely to splash the pot, FA-wise?

Those in favor of the trade seem to think that this means more moves are on the way. I don’t know if they think this means elite free agents. Let’s hope so. I agree they will sign a few players. I guess we can only wait and see the quality of those players.

Personally, I think these headline grabbing trades and trade rumors mean we won’t shop at the top of the market.

But we will all soon find out.

[metirish]

Any word on when the press conference will be? Assume Mets send out official release tomorrow? Big day at CF during the week ?

[Benjamin Grimm]

My guess is that the trade becomes official tomorrow and the press conference will be on Tuesday. But that's just a guess.

[MFS62]

Heard on the radio that the medical stuff can't be reviewed by both teams and signed off until Monday, so it could be Tuesday before they get all the paperwork in order.

Later

[seawolf17]

Benjamin Grimm wrote: Does this qualify as good news??? Edwin Diaz’s bone spur condition hasn’t been a problem yet

That's because his plane hasn't landed yet in New York. By the time he gets here, I'm sure he'll have a 12-18 month injury to announce.

[Centerfield]

Keith Law thinks it was a mistake. This is from his twitter:

(Not sure how to embed), but the tweet reads:

IMO yes. I think this deal undervalued both prospects, especially Kelenic, relative to the way the rest of baseball sees them. My writeup (ESPN+)

He has an ESPN Insider article too.

http://insider.espn.com/mlb/insider/story/_/id/25417888/even-mets-contend-cano-diaz-dealing-kelenic-haunt-them

But it's subscription and I can only read the intro. Basically it seems like he's calling it a foolish move. Underestimated the value Kelenic among other teams. I agree with this.