Can You Cano?

[Benjamin Grimm]

Ken Rosenthal reporting that the Mariners are trying to unload Robinson Cano, and that the Mets are one of the teams that they've contacted.

This seems so unlikely to happen that it's not worth creating a "Let's Talk About Robinson Cano" thread.

Cano is 36 and there's $120 million remaining on his contract.

[seawolf17]

Benjamin Grimm wrote: Cano is 36 and there's $120 million remaining on his contract.

Even if they take *all* our big contracts:

Vargas: $8M
Bruce: $29M
Frazier: $9M
Lagares: $18.5M
Swarzak: $8M

Nope.

[ashie62]

What if you added Cespedes to that list?

Nope

[Guest LeiterWagnerFasterStrongr]

Bad contract... but...

[Puts on Contrarian Hat; adjusts band]

... still a good player. Like, he has been good for 3-3.5 WAR in down years while in Seattle. (The still-above-average D gives him a decent floor.) That said, I wouldn't sign the guy for 5/100 at the moment-- the operative phrase in the previous sentence may be "has been"-- so the Mets "signing" him for 5/120 without significant salary relief included is... unlikely. But he's been remarkably consistent in most aspects of his game, he'd be a weapon as long as he remained healthy, he's in reasonable shape for his age, he'd allow us to superflex Jeff McNeil (or move him to third?), and, well... there are worse financial bets to make. We have a few in our dugout and bullpen and training room.

[Removes Contrarian Hat; examines forehead welt in mirror; frowns]

[Benjamin Grimm]

Well, I guess if enough dollars come back from Seattle, it's worth considering, but it really doesn't seem like a likely scenario.

[seawolf17]

Hmm.

Wikipedia wrote: In December 2013, Van Wagenen negotiated a $240 million, 10-year contract for Robinson Canó with the Seattle Mariners.

[bmfc1]

A few articles today say that the Mets are being "aggressive" on Robinson Cano talks. SEA is selling and BVW might be buying.

[Benjamin Grimm]

Huh! Maybe I shouldn't have been so dismissive of the idea in the other thread.

[Benjamin Grimm]

Andy Martino wrote: As for the Mets, the idea is to capitalize on Seattle's own aggressive posture in trying to unload Cano. At 36 years old, owed $120 million over the next five seasons, and coming off a PED suspension, Cano carries significant baggage. But he remains a productive hitter. Could the Mets use this deal to rid themselves of Jay Bruce's contract, and acquire young closer Edwin Diaz? How much would the Mariners pay of Cano's contract? These huge unknowns mean that an actual deal is probably a longshot. But the Mets - and Yanks - are staying involved just in case.

[MFS62]

Benjamin Grimm wrote: Andy Martino wrote: But the Mets - and Yanks - are staying involved just in case.

Who cares if he's 36?
He could DH and hit home runs 'till he's 50 in that bandbox in the Bronx. I could see him going there.

Later

[Guest John Cougar Lunchbucket]

I got real mixed feelings on this.

Don't wanna see McNeil uprooted, unless he winds up at 3rd base, and Cano, while good, just seems like a baggage-heavy vet with more potential to wind up regrettable. But it looks like Bruce is the dude they're trying to unload with this, and not stinky Todd Frazier. The whole thing seems weird.

That said I'll bet we can trick Seattle into paying moost of the freight on the Cano thing and Fred loves a bargain.

Also also, I'll bet Omar loves Cano. Omar is our baseball guy! Dammit

[smg58]

to paraphrase Queen: No, no, no, no, no, no, no.

[Benjamin Grimm]

How Mets’ slim Robinson Cano possibility could become reality

The Mets are hoping to take advantage of the rebuilding Mariners’ desperation to deal away Cano. SNY reports that they would include Jay Bruce, who makes $26 million over the next two seasons, in a deal and hope the Mariners would include stud closer Edwin Diaz.

Bruce for Cano and Diaz plus cash? Is that what they're saying?

[bmfc1]

Martino:

Per major league sources, here are the basic parameters of what the teams are discussing: Cano would go to the Mets, and Seattle would pay approximately $10 million annually of the $120 million owed to Cano over the next five years. That would take Cano's annual salary down to about $14 million. The Mets are also trying to get Seattle to take on a burdensome contract like Jay Bruce's, and obtain a player like Edwin Diaz or Mitch Haniger.

https://www.sny.tv/mets/news/sources-with-teams-discussing-parameters-heres-how-a-metsmariners-robinson-cano-trade-would-look/301154492

[Lefty Specialist]

Boy, they'd have to eat most of that contract AND take Bruce off our hands. And even then I'd be hesitant.

[smg58]

The Mariners have already made it clear that they have no intentions of trading Diaz or Hanigan, and I can't fathom they would change their minds just to get rid of Cano. Nor would I take Cano just to get rid of Bruce (or even Cespedes). There is a whole lot of "nothing adds up" here.

On the other hand, it's also worth pointing out that any deal involving Edwin Diaz and Robinson Cano is 99% about Edwin Diaz.

[Frayed Knot]

seawolf17 wrote: Hmm. Wikipedia wrote: In December 2013, Van Wagenen negotiated a $240 million, 10-year contract for Robinson Canó with the Seattle Mariners.

So, basically, BVW is telling Seattle, 'Hey, if we make this trade then you're gonna have to eat most of the money here cuz I'm sure not going to take on the back years of that idiot deal'

[Zvon]

If we could get Diaz in there somehow, I like. But otherwise no thank you.

[A Boy Named Seo]

Even if the M's sent $10M per year, would anyone here want Cano around for essentially a 5-year deal for ~$14M per season for his age 36-40 seasons? I sure as hell don't. They'd have to start with Haniger and Diaz to make me not hang up on em.

[Centerfield]

If they take Bruce, then it kinda becomes a 3 year deal for 15 mil each.

Right? Or is my math off?

[metsmarathon]

i'm intrigued by the possibility of the WATP that mlb.com just sent out...

cano | edwin diaz | mallex smith
for
andres giminez | justin dunn | dom smith | jay bruce

i'm not sure if i'm intrigued enough to pull the trigger on it, but i like that a heck of a lot more than trading noah.


OE: based on steamer projections from fangraphs, that package above would play out to about a 6-win increase for the metsies for '19

[Centerfield]

I hate the idea of trading Noah. So yeah, this is better.

If Seattle kicks in 10 million per year, you are basically signing Cano to a 5 year, $70 contract. To take this on would be foolish.

So they agree to take Bruce. Now it's like signing Cano to a 5 year, $44 million contract. (or a 3 year, or a 4 year, deal, whatever. Either way you owe him $44 million). Unless we think we can unload Jay Bruce somewhere else. Not sure if this is true or not, but anyway, let's assume that no one else wants Bruce.

The answer is still no. At best, you get maybe one or two productive years from Cano. And position-wise, and left-handedwise, he's not a great fit.

But then they throw in Edwin Diaz. A guy who I never heard of, but I guess would slot in as our closer. This means we save 3 years, $33 million on our closer (best guess at what that might cost us in the open market). So now, this deal starts to make sense.

But then you also give them Gimenez, Smith and Dunn? No way.

Am I missing something?

[Benjamin Grimm]

You're overlooking Mallex Smith also coming to the Mets.

40 steals and 10 triples in 2018 with Tampa. Would add some speed to a slow-footed team.

I don't know if that's enough to make this a good deal, but you asked what you were missing.

Also: Smith is 25 years old, four years away from free agency. .296/.367/.406 in 141 games in 2018.

[A Boy Named Seo]

The Mets have only 2 guaranteed contracts (Bruce and Yoenis) on the books for 2019 and zero for 2020. This is kind of amazing and can give them a ton of flexibility going forward. I don't know why they'd want to take on that Cano albatross just to get rid of Bruce and get an (elite) closer. Just spend that money on 2 second tier type guys (Familia, Andrew Miller?) and try to dump Bruce. Mets R Dumb.

[Guest John Cougar Lunchbucket]

I'm open minded but suspicious.

[Frayed Knot]

Checking in on Edwin Diaz here since us east coasters rarely ever see west coast closers due to the fact that they generally don't even start their stretching routines until after midnight EDT:
- native of Puerto Rico, was drafted in the 3rd round by Seattle in 2012
- will turn 25 during spring training '19
- has two-plus years ML service time but remains short of arbitration status until next season
- was 5th in AL RoY in 2016; 49 appearances all in relief, 23 games finished, 18 saves. So they threw him into the fire fairly quickly as he made his ML debut in June that year, was
assigned to 7th & 8th inning spots immediately, and was closing by early August. Kimbrel started closing that quickly, but not a lot of others that I can think of (K-Rod).
- 1st full season ('17) 66 games, 52 GF, 34 saves, 3.27 ERA, 1.15 WHIP
- 2018: 73 G/73.1 IP; 65 GF which led the league as did his 57 saves; 41 Hits, 1.96 ERA, 0.79 WHIP. 5.0 H/9, 0.6 HR/9, 2.1 BB/9, 15.2 K/9. So that's >3 Ks for every hit.
He was an All Star, 8th in CY, 18th in MVP


One interesting note on the 2018 Mariners, who were in the chase for a long while but faded to 3rd in the AL West: they won 89 games but were out-scored by 34 runs overall which
their pythag projection puts them at just 77 wins. Sometimes a good bullpen can help out that kind of result although a +12 win differential is pretty radical. So maybe GM Jerry DiPoto
knows 2018 was a bit of fool's gold and is looking to cash out.

So, if some sort of this deal goes through, you've got your theoretical closer for the next four years, the first of them quite cheap, from ages 25 thru 28

[smg58]

You'd be giving up two of your four best prospects and taking on Cano. It would be win now, or else. I could understand (though not necessarily agree with) re-tooling to try to win in the early 2020s, but this deal would punt the early 2020s.

Diaz might be the best reliever in baseball right now and I like Mallex Smith, but that's still not that big of a return for the cost. And that's before you factor in the potential for Cano to disappear for a full season and embarrass the team in the process. Or that it actually makes the lineup even more left-handed than it already is.

[Benjamin Grimm]

Well, if Cano replaces Bruce it doesn't make the lineup more lefthanded, except if you figure that Cano would start a lot more games than Bruce would.

[smg58]

Smith is left-handed, and Cano would either play first ahead of Alonso or third ahead of Frazier (or play second while McNeil slides over). That's five lefties out of eight.

[Zvon]

Benjamin Grimm wrote: You're overlooking Mallex Smith also coming to the Mets. 40 steals and 10 triples in 2018 with Tampa. Would add some speed to a slow-footed team. I don't know if that's enough to make this a good deal, but you asked what you were missing. Also: Smith is 25 years old, four years away from free agency. .296/.367/.406 in 141 games in 2018.

I like what Smith would bring.