Contending in 2019

[smg58]

Edgy MD wrote: Nah, it can sometimes get you in a better situation. Harvey for Meso has worked.

Nobody in the entire league looked more undealable at the end of last season than Matt Kemp. Not only was he dealt, but now he's a freaking All-Star.

[seawolf17]

smg58 wrote: Edgy MD wrote: Nah, it can sometimes get you in a better situation. Harvey for Meso has worked. Nobody in the entire league looked more undealable at the end of last season than Matt Kemp. Not only was he dealt, but now he's a freaking All-Star.

Same with Shin Soo Choo.

[Centerfield]

Ceetar wrote: Frazier is so so so so so SO much better than Flores and TJ Rivera combined.

Todd Frazier career OPS: .773

TJ Rivera career OPS: .780
Wilmer Flores Career OPS: .734
(But, his OPS for the last three season: .788, .795, .802.)

Wilmer Flores + TJ Rivera combined: 1.507

[Ceetar]

Centerfield wrote: Frazier is so so so so so SO much better than Flores and TJ Rivera combined. Todd Frazier career OPS: .773 TJ Rivera career OPS: .780 Wilmer Flores Career OPS: .734 (But, his OPS for the last three season: .788, .795, .802.) Wilmer Flores + TJ Rivera combined: 1.507

That's not how you'd combine them in my eye, you'd have to compute the averages.

anyway, Flores is having a career year, and has managed to raise his walk rate to almost league average. But that was mostly early season stuff and it's slipping again. Frazier was good until the first injury and was maybe still injured afterwards? Either way, he's typically been good the last few years since he learned how to walk. And he does play much better defense, even if that's decent defense, which is much better than bad defense.

Frazier has a history of doing it for a long period of time.

[ashie62]

Lefty Specialist wrote: Edgy MD wrote: I'm not sure "healing" is a likely outcome for plantar fasciitis. Through therapy, you can minimize the frequency and severity of flareups, but I don't think it's ever going to disappear from his book. There is a surgery, but that's probably a six-month recovery and it's not without it's downside. I've had it. A bad flareup about 10 years ago, where I could barely walk. Rest and therapy are the best treatments, and I was basically off my foot for about a month. I get minor flares occasionally but I deal with it. Of course I wasn't trying to play the outfield in a major league uniform, but it is treatable.

Frazier is better than Flores and Rivera combined? Frazier is on that post 30 slide down

How did the Mets end up with so many horrific contracts?

[metirish]

I have no faith in the Mets FO and ownership , contend in 2019?....this fucking mess needs to be torn up, not seeing it happen

[metsmarathon]

Lefty Specialist wrote: Edgy MD wrote: I'm not sure "healing" is a likely outcome for plantar fasciitis. Through therapy, you can minimize the frequency and severity of flareups, but I don't think it's ever going to disappear from his book. There is a surgery, but that's probably a six-month recovery and it's not without it's downside. I've had it. A bad flareup about 10 years ago, where I could barely walk. Rest and therapy are the best treatments, and I was basically off my foot for about a month. I get minor flares occasionally but I deal with it. Of course I wasn't trying to play the outfield in a major league uniform, but it is treatable.

plantar fasciitis SUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUCKS. like, it totally sucks. did i mention - it sucks!

but it's treatable and manageable. and if you take care of it soon enough, before you start ripping shit apart, you should be fine long term.

[Guest LeiterWagnerFasterStrongr]

Centerfield wrote: It's the others on the list that are infuriating. All that money spent on middling talent. $9 million for Todd Frazier when Flores or TJ Rivera could give you similar production.

I mean... that's just not true. They could give you similar offensive production, possibly... but, when healthy, Frazier is actually a plus defender. Like, worth 1-2 WAR with glove alone. But he's hurt, and anyway, I digress.

To the point... Maybe I'm just at a very dark path in my fandom arc... but you guys all sound ABSURDLY optimistic to me. I don't see this team contending without selling off our onfield rulers AND a serious interregnal period, besides.

[Centerfield]

Yes, I meant similar production offensively.

And I know that I typically undervalue defense anyway, but in 2017, our pitching ranked 28th and our offense ranked 19th. We needed to upgrade on both sides so drastically that defense is, like, a bonus.

And considering our approach to improving the pitching was "hope everyone is better in 2018", we needed guys who were going to make a significant difference offensively. And Todd Frazier and Jay Bruce were not the guys we needed.

[Ceetar]

Centerfield wrote: Yes, I meant similar production offensively. And I know that I typically undervalue defense anyway, but in 2017, our pitching ranked 28th and our offense ranked 19th. We needed to upgrade on both sides so drastically that defense is, like, a bonus. And considering our approach to improving the pitching was "hope everyone is better in 2018", we needed guys who were going to make a significant difference offensively. And Todd Frazier and Jay Bruce were not the guys we needed.

Bruce is garbage, sure. I still think paying Cain was worth it.

But infield-wise? Frazier/Rosario/Cabrera/Smith is a much better defensive infield than 2017. Even if it's Gonzalez for a little while. That's even arguably an above average defensive infield. If you take that hand in hand with the chose of Vargas as the veteran SP innings eater guy, it does make a little sense.

[smg58]

The Fielding Bible had our infield defense at -68 runs saved last year. So far this year, we're at -41. Cabrera is a big part of that, and Frazier has not been the problem, but if it weren't for Manny Machado an Xander Bogaerts we'd be dead last in the majors at shortstop as well as second base. That's a problem that needs solving.

[batmagadanleadoff]

Can the Mets contend in 2019? Read the Baseball Prospectus roundtable discussion, linked below.

Some great one-liners. And some highlights:

-- they'll contend if they spend money (which they won't)
-- Jeff Wilpon is a monster, an asshole, and a douchebag
-- innuendo that the Mets should've cut ties with David Wright in 2012
-- the Mets are dumb
-- Dom Smith is a sucky bust who can't hit, run or play defense
-- Jay Bruce'll still be here in 2019 a year older and a year suckier because the Mets are dumb and cheap and won't recognize suck costs


http://mets.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2018/07/10/bp-mets-roundtable/

[Ceetar]

that's not exactly expert opinion.

and they're wrong.

[Guest d'Kong76]

Nothing 'great' about it or riveting, all six of those things have been said here
in our tiny corner of Mets' fandom. Having it culled from under the venerable
BP umbrella means nothing and is just as boring as beams and ceilings.

People's mileage may vary.

Let's Go Yankees *clap* *clap* *clapclapclap*

[batmagadanleadoff]

Nothing 'great' about it or riveting, all six of those things have been said here in our tiny corner of Mets' fandom. Having it culled from under the venerable BP umbrella means nothing and is just as boring as beams and ceilings. People's mileage may vary. Let's Go Yankees *clap* *clap* *clapclapclap*

Holy moley, the idiotic and contrived lengths you go to to take a stupid shot at me and then the "beams and ceilings" reference just in case I didn't get it. Beehive. Never learn.

YOU: Quite frankly, it wasnt meant that way.

ME: Bullshit!

[Centerfield]

Maybe I'm just overreacting from a particularly disheartening weekend, but I am less and less convinced that the Mets can contend in 2019.

I was just taking an inventory of my thoughts on the direction of this franchise. In all my years as a fan, I don't think I've ever been more at odds with their thinking.

And to think I used to defend the Wilpons when they were vilified in the Doubleday/Wilpon dispute. I guess I always suspected that those cartoonish characterizations of the miserly Wilpon was couched, at least in part, by anti-Semitism. And maybe they still are, but now given the mountain of actual evidence, I just don't see a way out for this franchise.

[Ceetar]

My thinking hasn't changed much over two games, if anything it's gotten better with the Conforto home run.

Conforto and Rosario are still the keys.

[Centerfield]

It's not the games ceetar. I'm talking about:

*Our best hitter having a long-term debilitating injury

*Communication problems leading to conflicting messages from management and player

*Our team's preference that the player, instead of correcting the condition, play through pain in a lost season, like Carlos Beltran nearly a decade earlier

*Middling returns on the best reliever in Mets history. Failing to maximize returns by again, asking the other team to take on the salary

*all of the foregoing suggesting an inability to learn from past mistakes

*Demoting Dom Smith, when he should be collecting as many ABs as possible

*Playing Jose Reyes over Jeff McNeil

[Ceetar]

I guess the Cespedes is a knock if he does indeed need the surgery that will keep him out until the ASB, but I believe you'd contend that this organization has been behaving that way for roughly forever, so I don't know why you'd downgrade them.

I agree on the last two, but Dom Smith was failing in the majors so I can't get too worked up about it. As for McNeil who is probably not anything approaching a long term solution, the Mets would get killed for shoving him into a new position in the majors he hadn't been playing. Either way I can't get worked up about him not getting those 50-100 extra PA in the majors. Maybe the extra minor league development time will help him both offensively and defensively in the future. I'm generally pro "Get these guys up here and let them learn here" but there is still actually some value to the minors. There's stuff you just don't get in the majors even for a team that technically is out of it. Especially still in July.

The other stuff, well. it's mostly LOLMets stuff. Most of it you, and others, would've been comfortable asserting two weeks ago and you've already criticized me for wanting some critical thinking on the matter and less spinning words to fit the narrative.

See, it is the same thing with Beltran in a way, and I agree that the Mets are generally way too conservative in many many ways, but hell, lots of teams are. That Cespedes comments to the press were the first time the Mets heard him say he's considering the more aggressive option isn't really a huge thing, it was just Cespedes being open and honest, something the media's been begging of him for months. I doubt Yoenis was like "oh, it's chronic? shut it down and cut me open immediately so I'm as ready to go in 2019 as I can be!" (Though that's kind of what Beltran did, once he got the second/third opinion or whatever it was. "Oh, that'll work? DO IT." The Mets wanted to have a discussion and weigh their options. They wanted input on personal medical decision, and were mildly put off that Beltran decided on his own. Much like Thor refusing an MRI. That's hardly "DAMMIT CARLOS YOU GET BACK ON THE FIELD AND PLAY INJURED!" but, you know, narrative.

But isn't it standard medical practice to let the symptoms heal up before you assess and fix the root cause? Cespedes had ancillary issues as a result of the heel spur, and they wanted those to heal up before fully accessing what was going on, if it could be treated without surgery, etc. Isn't ramping up and playing major league games exactly that? I get the desire, from a wins and losses standpoint, to want him to get cut open and fixed asap, but that's not always the human answer.

What i want to know is what that negotiation stands now. What are they actually after with Cespedes playing some games now? Was this just a way to get the issue talked about and move on? Because I still don't understand how he can't DH back to back games, unless the scratch Saturday was more a result of rushing him back a little bit and not necessarily heel related? I feel like there's so much garbage and noise coverage out there, a lot of it clickbait narrative trash, that it's more time consuming to find the actual answers to the real questions.

[nymr83]

John Cougar Lunchbucket wrote: Mets have pitchers. Generally speaking, I'd risk losing Wheels or Matz and gamble on Dunn or Peterson next year.

someone will get hurt. or suck. or both. bring Matz back based on this year and if Dunn/Peterson earn their spot there will always be a spot. or you can make via trade then.

[Lefty Specialist]

We thought they had too much pitching last year, until they didn't.

[Centerfield]

So the way the deadline is going, and I realize there is time left, it seems like the Mets will try to contend in 2019.

The good news is at least the best writers seem to finally understand that this is going to mean opening up payroll.

[metsmarathon]

Centerfield wrote: So the way the deadline is going, and I realize there is time left, it seems like the Mets will try to contend in 2019. The good news is at least the best writers seem to finally understand that this is going to mean opening up payroll.

yabbut.... do the wilpons share that same understanding?

[Ceetar]

metsmarathon wrote: Centerfield wrote: So the way the deadline is going, and I realize there is time left, it seems like the Mets will try to contend in 2019. The good news is at least the best writers seem to finally understand that this is going to mean opening up payroll. yabbut.... do the wilpons share that same understanding?

Wilpons always seem to be able to be pitched to, so I think there's a good shot New GM is able to convince them to spend a little more, at least in key spots. Wasn't that one of their supposed rules for when they hired Sandy? "Sell us on how you're going to make this team good" I mean, granted, sometimes it's a snake oil salesman.

The GM thing is going to be such a crux of it all, it's hard to say anything with any conviction about anything. Does Callaway stay? The coaches? A new GM is going to start bringing in 'his guys' up and down the organization, does that start immediately or do they take a year or so to assess the current staff? Do we hire another analytic person or two to get 'above average' over just average? The entire training staff is new this year as well, and it seems like they might be at least partially data/science driven, do they expand that? utilize it?

Sandy's been pretty willing to just punt defense (though it seems like the intent was to be better on the infield this year, it just didn't work out), will the new guy favor some good glove work?

[Lefty Specialist]

Ceetar wrote: Wilpons always seem to be able to be pitched to, so I think there's a good shot New GM is able to convince them to spend a little more, at least in key spots. Wasn't that one of their supposed rules for when they hired Sandy? "Sell us on how you're going to make this team good" I mean, granted, sometimes it's a snake oil salesman.

Omar did that pretty successfully, back when they had money.

[Ceetar]

Lefty Specialist wrote: Ceetar wrote: Wilpons always seem to be able to be pitched to, so I think there's a good shot New GM is able to convince them to spend a little more, at least in key spots. Wasn't that one of their supposed rules for when they hired Sandy? "Sell us on how you're going to make this team good" I mean, granted, sometimes it's a snake oil salesman. Omar did that pretty successfully, back when they had money.

They have money now, they're just gun-shy about spending into the red. But maybe the initial spurt will be more palatable than the throwing good money after bad like Jason Bay when it's not followed up by a scandal, a crash and a stadium debt. Plus Cespedes and Wright coming off the books in two years (or most of it by the end of each year), so hell, they could probably just go over budget by the extra tax breaks the criminal in the white house is getting them and if it doesn't work they're not in too deep.

[RealityChuck]

The team could contend, but only if the stars align.

Starting pitching is fine, and a strength. Bullpen needs work, but that can be dealt with (hey, Familia and Montero will be back, so we're good, right. )

We have potential with Nimmo and Conforto in the outfield, and Cespedes will make a difference if we can stay close until he comes back. Bruce is likely to regain his form next year.

Other than that, the infield and catching is iffy. Maybe Alonso or Smith turn out to be quality players at first. Maybe McNeil, Evans, or Rivera are answers at second. Maybe Rosario grows into the player he's projected to be. Maybe Frazier regains his form. Maybe Plawecki finally puts it together.*

Maybe, maybe, maybe.

To erase the maybes, the team needs to sign at least one impact free agent (probably two). Can the Wilpons be persuaded to do it? I'd be pessimistic.

*I would assume Mesoraco will try for free agency; he shown enough to be attractive, especially since catchers are hard to find these days.

[Guest sharpie]

The Guardian weighs in with an anti-Mets pro-Padres article.

https://www.theguardian.com/sport/blog/2018/jul/31/mlb-tanking-mets-padres-relegation

[Centerfield]

sharpie wrote: The Guardian weighs in with an anti-Mets pro-Padres article. https://www.theguardian.com/sport/blog/2018/jul/31/mlb-tanking-mets-padres-relegation

Hard to argue with any of that.

[Edgy MD]

The Mets will win more games than the Padres this year, next year, and the next five years.