I guess we should probably talk about Jason Vargas, huh

[nymr83]

Options have a funny way of making roster decisions. Montero likely the long man just to avoid exposing him. Sorry Lugo/Gsellman

[Vic Sage]

Nymr83 wrote: Options have a funny way of making roster decisions. Montero likely the long man just to avoid exposing him. Sorry Lugo/Gsellman

i agree with that, but its a mistake. Montero sucks. Lugo has had good production coming out of the pen, and games you lose in April count just as much as those in October.

[nymr83]

yes, its a mistake.

i have pretty mixed feelings about the Vargas deal. he is an improvement over Harvey, but will the Mets really replace Harvey or will they replace someone who Vargas is NOT an improvement over?

the other issue - this is "real money" as in "the owner just shelled out his money and guaranteed this guy will play" not like Gonzalez who was cheap enough to be easily discarded if a better options comes along. This is basically an admission that the Mets are not in the running for Arrieta, Cobb, or Lynn. i dont like that part.

i guess i am ok with the signing in a vacuum but dont like the implications.

[Ceetar]

Nymr83 wrote: yes, its a mistake. i have pretty mixed feelings about the Vargas deal. he is an improvement over Harvey, but will the Mets really replace Harvey or will they replace someone who Vargas is NOT an improvement over? the other issue - this is "real money" as in "the owner just shelled out his money and guaranteed this guy will play" not like Gonzalez who was cheap enough to be easily discarded if a better options comes along. This is basically an admission that the Mets are not in the running for Arrieta, Cobb, or Lynn. i dont like that part. i guess i am ok with the signing in a vacuum but dont like the implications.

Vargas is better than Cobb or Lynn.

[Benjamin Grimm]

Ceetar wrote: Vargas is better than Cobb or Lynn.

Really? I hope so. If true, then this is a brilliant move.

Vargas was an All-Star last year, but he was terrible in the second half. That second-half dropoff is concerning. Hopefully it has a benign explanation.

[A Boy Named Seo]

Benjamin Grimm wrote: Ceetar wrote: Vargas is better than Cobb or Lynn. Really? I hope so. If true, then this is a brilliant move. Vargas was an All-Star last year, but he was terrible in the second half. That second-half dropoff is concerning. Hopefully it has a benign explanation.

Nah, I don't think that's close to true. His WAR and expected ERAs were close to Lynn's last season, but both players have been better and are younger than Vargas. He might be a better value in the end than one or both, but he will most certainly be cheaper and didn't cost the Mets a pick.

[Ceetar]

no, i'm wrong. I must've been thinking of something else. Lynn and Cobb did do okay last year, though I don't particularly bank on any of the three being particularly good.

[Edgy MD]

The Mets started last season seemingly in excellent position, with seven guys primed for the rotation, but instead ended up using 12, of whom 1 1/3 were healthy and effective enough to pitch contender-quality baseball, maybe 1 1/2, if you distinguish Montero's occasional runs of goodness in there and give him 1/6 of a point.

Firing on five cylinders is always elusive, but I understand why they want to prime nine guys this year instead of seven, and if somehow injuries don't make the decisions for them, two end up in the minors and two in the bullpen.

The main problem is that this cuts against the manager's expressed wish that he have a couple of bullpen backenders with options.

[Frayed Knot]

Vargas was an All-Star last year, but he was terrible in the second half. That second-half dropoff is concerning. Hopefully it has a benign explanation.

When in doubt, go to the old stand-by: He was tipping his pitches

[Benjamin Grimm]

Or that he needs Tommy John surgery.

[Lefty Specialist]

I don't like this. A two-year deal for a 35-year-old who faded in the second half.

So there are too many clowns in this car; someone has to go. Possible that injuries will do that, but right now you have Thor/DeGrom/Matz/Vargas/Harvey/Wheeler. If they all want to start, then they're going to have to battle for it. I'm guessing Wheeler will be the one left without a chair when the music stops.

But just not sold on Vargas.

[Benjamin Grimm]

I'm okay with them having to battle for it. If enough of the other guys are healthy and pitching well, then maybe Vargas becomes the long man/swing man. A modern-day Pat Mahomes.

[seawolf17]

Proof that pitcher wins don't mean anything: Vargas led the AL with 18 last year.

[A Boy Named Seo]

Not sold on Vargas either, but like Edge said, we tried to have SP coverage last year and torched through it in, like, 3 games. All these dudes are gonna their innings still, I bet. If Wheeler starts in the pen, he could be a bad-ass reliever getting high-leverage outs in early innings (5th/6th) and we'll still have Ramos/Blevins/Sleestak/Familia. If Harv/Matz gets hurt, Wheeler will be in there for those starts. The 10-day DL gave starters extra days off a lot last year, too. Wheeler could still get 140-150 IP.

[Vic Sage]

Edgy MD wrote: The Mets started last season seemingly in excellent position, with seven guys primed for the rotation, but instead ended up using 12, of whom 1 1/3 were healthy and effective enough to pitch contender-quality baseball, maybe 1 1/2, if you distinguish Montero's occasional runs of goodness in there and give him 1/6 of a point. Firing on five cylinders is always elusive, but I understand why they want to prime nine guys this year instead of seven, and if somehow injuries don't make the decisions for them, two end up in the minors and two in the bullpen. The main problem is that this cuts against the manager's expressed wish that he have a couple of bullpen backenders with options.

all true, but my problem is which 9 guys. They've chosen Vargas over other options in the market, eliminating Cobb and Lynn (for example). so instead of getting a 3rd starter, we'll have Harvey or Matz getting the 3rd slot in the rotation by default, instead of having them compete for the the 4th and 5th, and we've spent our last $$ to fill in the back end or end up in the pen. That's disappointing. It's not tragic, and i'm not upset about it, but it is what it is.

[Valadius]

Best we can hope for is Glendon Rusch.

[Benjamin Grimm]

Well, we can hope for R.A. Dickey 2012, can't we?

[Vic Sage]

Benjamin Grimm wrote: Well, we can hope for R.A. Dickey 2012, can't we?

did Vargas learn a knuckleball?

[Benjamin Grimm]

Well, we can hope that he learned a knuckleball!

[MFS62]

Benjamin Grimm wrote: Or that he needs Tommy John surgery.

He HAD TJ surgery - about 2 or 3 years ago.
Last year was his first full year back after that surgery.
He faded in the second half because, as his pitching coach said. "He just ran out of gas".*
His pitching coach last year?
Dave Eiland.
I think its reasonable that the Mets signed Vargas because of Eiland's recommendation.
I also think that because he (hopefully) won't have to start more than, say, 20-25 games, he'll stay strong and be a positive contributor to the team.
And having that second lefty in the bullpen won't hurt, either.
I like this signing.

Later

* Heard this on WFAN today.

[Guest 41Forever]

Or, are they planning to deal a starter as part of a deal for another player? Matz or Wheeler get traded?

[Fman99]

Vargas had a rotten 2nd half, but, BUT, if you look, his September numbers (albeit against callups, sure) were better than the July/August shitfest he put out there. I'm a "half full" guy, though.

[Guest LeiterWagnerFasterStrongr]

Valadius wrote: Best we can hope for is Glendon Rusch.

That's not a bad thing, if we're talking Metly GR; I mean, it's unlikely, given that Vargas strikes out fewer, walks a few more, and is generally not as... good as Good Rusch was. But if we get 1/2-to-2/3 of that (20 starts at 2 fWAR), even, it's a good deal.

Even in a depressed market, Cobb and Lynn likely will go for significantly more. This isn't a bad signing, if you consider that it's probably a depth move and that it probably indicates that we weren't going to be shopping in that aisle. But it does make me a little nervous bringing him-- a pitch-to-contact guy AND a pretty extreme flyball guy-- to a team with iffy OF defense, at a time when every other team is focusing on hitting pitches higher and harder.

[seawolf17]

MFS62 wrote: His pitching coach last year? Dave Eiland.

You know? I didn't even think of that. If there was something wrong with him, Eiland would know it. Maybe this is a better deal than we think.

[G-Fafif]

Occasionally the Mets bring in guys coming off 18-win seasons. Or guys who have 18-win seasons in their past. Jason Vargas is the hook for this exploration of the subject.