Giancarlo: Going Once, Going Twice, ...

[Frayed Knot]

Mex17 wrote: Ellsbury's $68-ish million comes off the books in 2021 comparted to the $295 million that Stanton is owed through 2028. $68 million is less than $295 million and 2021 is earlier than 2028, so there are your answers. Plus, in my deals, Judge and more were headed back to Miami in addition to Ellsbury. That is how fire sale trades usually work. . .sometimes you take back a bad, albiet shorter term, contact in order to offset some of the cost to the acquiring tean and you almost always get back actual talent which is younger, less expensive, and team controllable that you use to build your own team back up again. Hardly any of that is supposedly happening here, and when you factor in the rather cozy relationship that Miami's pseudo-GM has with the team that is reaping this enormous benefit, and it should not be too hard to understand why this stinks to high heaven.

So the Marlins chose a deal where they take on NONE of Ellsbury's $68 million which they obviously preferred since their stated goal going in was to cut payroll as much as possible.
It's fine to make up scenarios where they take Ellsbury and therefore get Judge in the process but you're acting as if that was offered and they turned it down.

The rumored SFG deal was infielder Joe Panik plus two prospects and it winds up as Castro plus two prospects. And while I'm not sure if we heard what StL was offering, the Marlins would have accepted either but couldn't get past the Stanton veto. So to believe that this was all some kind of set-up we'd have to buy that the SFG & StL deals were 'fake news' and all those teams plus the Yanx, plus Stanton, plus the offices on Park Avenue are all in on this and that Jeter's goal in his new job is to hurt his own team as much as possible.

[ashie62]

The MFY's play in the American League. We do not compete directly with them.

[Mex17]

It's fine to make up scenarios where they take Ellsbury and therefore get Judge in the process but you're acting as if that was offered and they turned it down.

I'm saying that this is the type of thing that a responsible and competant GM would have insisted on upon threat of walking away from the negoations if he did not get it. I'm no master negotiator, but I do know that you have to be willing to walk.

It's not just "player" plus "prospects", it also the quality of the prospects. I don't know what SF and StL were offering, but from what I can tell what they are getting from the Yankees are middling at best. So, even if the packages from the other two teams were comperable, that may not speak to collusion but it does say quite a bit about Jeter's aptitude as a GM. And, if that is true, that means that now that we have finally found something that the guy is terrible at, it somehow still benefits the Yankees!!! How does that even happen?

On edit: And Manfred can still get involved on the basis that a pampered entitled primma donna ex-player (who comes from a franchise that, along with their fan base, seems to actually believe that they are bigger than the game itself) being in over his head should not impinge the overall credibility of the sport.

Edited December 9, 2017 by Guest

[Benjamin Grimm]

I'd feel much better about this if Stanton was 33. But I looked it up and he's only 28!

[Centerfield]

Benjamin Grimm wrote: I'd feel much better about this if Stanton was 33. But I looked it up and he's only 28!

Yeah. It’s as bad as it can be. They have a loaded young core. Tons of money coming off the books, all of which will be reinvested. A strong farm system and smart people in charge.

Any move that doesn’t work can be addressed by further moves. Players know this making them an even more attractive landing spot, even beyond their individual contracts.

They are set up for years to come. Our Octobers will be much like this past one. Where we hope some team puts it together enough to keep them from winning it all.

[Frayed Knot]

... you have to be willing to walk.

Depends on how desperate the Fish were to get rid of Stanton - or, more accurately, his contract.
The type of deal you're proposing is A type of salary dump but it's not the only one and Miami either preferred, or was only able to get, a deal where they took less in order to get out from under virtually all the money (Yanx paying 90 some percent).
Insist on too much and you might wind up walking yourself into keeping a player you don't want/can't afford.

It's not just "player" plus "prospects", it also the quality of the prospects. I don't know what SF and StL were offering, but from what I can tell what they are getting from the Yankees are middling at best. So, even if the packages from the other two teams were comperable, that may not speak to collusion but it does say quite a bit about Jeter's aptitude as a GM. And, if that is true, that means that now that we have finally found something that the guy is terrible at, it somehow still benefits the Yankees!!! How does that even happen?

The proposed deal from SF was an infielder plus two prospects, just like the one they took from NYY. I don't claim the knowledge as to how the prospects compare* but I do know you can't merely go by #2, #8 or whatever. The Yanx have a very deep system right now (more deep than top heavy except for #1 guy Gleyber Torres except that he's recovering from TJ surgery) so #whatever in their stable might be better than a higher prospect in a weaker system.

The bottom line is that this was a very open process. Miami made it known, essentially before the season even ended, that GS was available and all 29 teams were free to contact them (or be contacted by them) and make bids. The Marlins, **under the restriction of Stanton's veto power** (a VERY important detail), decided that this one was better than any others and better than the option of hanging onto him.


And, if nothing else, we can look at it this way: in the last 24 hours both Dee Gordon & Giancarlo Stanton have disappeared from our division.




* here's a John Sickels evaluation of the NYY guys

[nymr83]

If the Dodgers made this deal I dont think we would be conplaining nearly as much.

Starting from the premise that the Marlins wouldnt pay much if any salary, they got a reasonable return considering the no trade clause tying their hands - for all we know Stanton secretly gave them a list of 3 teams or less!

The issues here are really 1) an ownership group being allowed to buy a team when they seemingly couldn't afford to run one 2) the impression of dirty dealing and 3) another demonstration of the Yankees willingness to spend in a way the Mets won't.

I dont think the quality of the trade itself is an issue.

The idea of Judge for Stanton is a joke, no team in the league trades away a guy like Judge under team control cheaply for 5 or 6 years.

[Mex17]

Nymr83 wrote: The idea of Judge for Stanton is a joke, no team in the league trades away a guy like Judge under team control cheaply for 5 or 6 years.

So if not Judge than at least Clint Frazier. A backend bullpen guy and defense-first infielder, both of whom are years away, is simply not enough from the prospect end in exchange for Giancarlo Stanton, even if you are taking on all of the money for Stanton.

[Frayed Knot]

... even if you are taking on all of the money for Stanton.

I think you're dismissing the value of 1/4 Billion dollars of future obligation rather cavalierly.
Or, as Virgil Sollozzo once said to Vito C.: 'If you consider a million dollars in cash as mere finance, Te Salut Don Corleone'


Let's look at it this way:

- the Yanx essentially just signed Giancarlo Stanton to a 10-year deal FA at about $29 mil per running through his age 37 season. Except in this case he can opt out after three years -- remember it was the second ARod contract, the one he forced by opting-out, which caused all the problems, not the one the Yanx inherited. AND it's also going to cost them more than that as this prevents them from getting under the lux tax level as they had supposedly planned to do, AND they also had to pay with their starting 2nd baseman (a 27 y/o 4-time All-Star coming off maybe his best season) plus two prospects, far away ones, yes, but also potentially high ceiling guys.
Now they obviously consider that a good deal and maybe it will be, but they're in a very different situation than the Marlins.

- the Marlins, meanwhile, despite painting themselves into a corner by essentially pre-announcing (probably Jeter et al's biggest crime here) their inability to keep GS all while knowing that their options were limited due to his no-trade clause, came away with an above average starting middle infielder plus two prospects, or those two prospects plus whatever they can flip Castro into, AND they pay almost none of the remaining contract. All of which means that they got what they were looking for too.

Now you obviously think this was a bad deal, which is fine, but it not like the Fish were swimming in better ones (and even if they could they had to get his permission to act on it/them) and they just as obviously preferred this deal to no deal at all which might have been the case once the Dodgers declared no interest and the player himself rejected the SF and StL options.
Manfred is not only NOT going to halt this deal, he's barely going to give it a second thought.

[Ceetar]

lol.

I'll take the Mets thanks. Gimme Thor and deGrom et al (and Darvish please) over the Yankees. It's fun how because the Yankees got lucky last year (And they did) it must mean the start of a dynasty run and not literally just a flash in the pan thing.

Right off the bat I'm not sure Stanton covers the difference from the Judge dropoff and the Castro drop off (who I don't really want. sign Walker again I guess, he's better)

That they offloaded Castro's contract AND had the Marlins eat a small part (which helps with the competitive balance tax) likely means they're serious about staying under, and they're pretty damn close, especially with paying 60million to their outfield and have plenty of holes elsewhere.

The spray charts suggest Stanton wouldn't have hit more home runs in Yankee Stadium than Marlins Park last season.

As annoying as the coverage of them is going to be, the Marlins fire sale only helps the Mets.

And the Mets don't have a DH. Conforto and Cespedes are very good players.

Brian Dozier is the guy you want to push the Mets to acquire, not Stanton.

[nymr83]

the Stanton contract is definitely more palatable to an AL team who knows they'll never need to suffer through horrible negative defensive value as long as the bat is producing - but the Yankees still had a roster built for this where a few years ago they wouldn't have because they have nobody else obviously "clogging" that spot long term.

[Guest 41Forever]

The thing about the spray chart is interesting. But I’m wondering, is MFY III a bandbox because of short fences, or is it because the ball carries well there or a combination of the two? We all hear that it’s a band box, but I don’t think I’ve heard that about Marlins Park.

[Guest John Cougar Lunchbucket]

We should do Jeter a favor and take Christian Yelich off his hands.

[Centerfield]

Or Marcelo Ozuna. I’d be down with that.

[Frayed Knot]

During our first series this past year with Miami I remember posing the question about whether you'd want Yelich or Stanton going forward if given the choice.
I don't recall specifically how I dealt with the 800-lb gorilla of Stanton's contract situation but my point in bringing it up was that I saw a better future in Yelich.
Well it turned out to be a bad year to vote that way as Stanton had his best -- and healthiest -- season of his career while Yelich backslid somewhat [859 OPS / 135 OPS+ in 2016 down to 807 / 117] but maybe that just means that this would be a good time to 'buy low' on him. Just turned 26 a few days ago, he has two seasons to go before hitting FA-gency and he can play CF

Ozuna, one year older and with the same ML service time as Yelich, had a big step-up year in '17 but he's always been so erratic that I'd have no idea what to expect from him.


Either way we're left with the question of what type of young player/prospects you'd give up for either/or and whether or not they'd be good enough to get the job done.
And of course without the monster contract as part of the deal there's the possibility that either of those guys would cost more in live bodies than did Stanton.

[Ceetar]

I mean, Yelich seemingly plays/played a passable CF? So that helps.

[metsmarathon]

man, i really hate when a player i like turns to the dark side....

[A Boy Named Seo]

This is a good read about this trade, the state of the Marlins under the owner's lead, and Jeets' place in it.

The Ringer --> https://www.theringer.com/mlb/2017/12/9/16756778/giancarlo-stanton-trade-miami-marlins-new-york-yankees-bruce-sherman

Seriously, who is the Marlins GM? I wonder who is/are the people that engineered this specifically? And I wonder how much Jeter's paws were all over it or not?

[Ceetar]

Mafia Stooge. love it.

[dgwphotography]

This is a good read about this trade, the state of the Marlins under the owner's lead, and Jeets' place in it. The Ringer --> https://www.theringer.com/mlb/2017/12/9/16756778/giancarlo-stanton-trade-miami-marlins-new-york-yankees-bruce-sherman Seriously, who is the Marlins GM? I wonder who is/are the people that engineered this specifically? And I wonder how much Jeter's paws were all over it or not?

Some of that would ring true if you switched out Sherman for Wilpon and Jeter for Alderson

[A Boy Named Seo]

Here's a very interesting, combative interview between some ESPN rock named Dan Le Batard and Commish Rob Manfred talking the Marlins sale.

107K views · 796 reactions | Dan brought on MLB Commissioner, Rob...

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Dan brought on MLB Commissioner, Rob Manfred, to discuss the sale and acquisition of the Miami Marlins, the trade of Giancarlo Stanton to the Yankees, and what appears to be yet another Marlins...

Manfred vehemently defends the sale and the ownership and claims he knew nothing in advance about their plans to strip the team. Le Batard guy keeps railing on Jeter and Manfred had to remind him Bruce Sherman is the majority owner.

I kept wondering throughout how ownership would evaluate our own Wilpons compared to these new turds in south Florida, and wonder if MLB's relationship w/ the Wilpons would ever change now that Selig's been gone for a bit.

Very much worth a listen, regardless of if, or how many craps you give about the Marlins.

[Ceetar]

It's not just Selig I'm sure, there's very much a rich white guy inner circle thing there. Maybe they're not _as_ close to Manfred as Selig, but I'm sure they're still friendly.

[Benjamin Grimm]

Mike Puma wrote: Fred Wilpon was “irate” after learning of Giancarlo Stanton’s recent trade to the Yankees, according to an industry source, continuing a pattern of hand-wringing by the Mets co-owner following a splash by his crosstown rival.

Fred Wilpon ‘irate’ about Yankees getting Giancarlo Stanton

[seawolf17]

Benjamin Grimm wrote: Mike Puma wrote: Fred Wilpon was “irate” after learning of Giancarlo Stanton’s recent trade to the Yankees, according to an industry source, continuing a pattern of hand-wringing by the Mets co-owner following a splash by his crosstown rival. Fred Wilpon ‘irate’ about Yankees getting Giancarlo Stanton

Mets Fans 'Irate' About Incompetent Team Ownership

[Centerfield]

It says a lot about Fred that he hopes to win not by giving his all, but by hoping his opponents will be just as lackadaisical as him.

Then being surprised and angry when they’re not.

[Edgy MD]

Yeah, if that account is true, then it's one step beyond in dumbness. If he believes the Yankees model of doing business is unsustainable, then he should be delighted when they double down on it. They'll experience massive setbacks and the Mets will be there to pick up the pieces.

But he doesn't believe it. He either wants to believe it. Or wants the Yankees to believe he believes it so they will restrain themselves.

It's a good symbol of how baseball is a terribly modeled industry, where one owner is pissed at another for not holding the line? You're supposed to be competitors.

[Ceetar]

gee, I'm so glad Fred opened his mouth.

[metirish]

Mets a laughingstock with these Wilpon is irate stories....

[Ceetar]

metirish wrote: Mets a laughingstock with these Wilpon is irate stories....

It's the offseason. When the Mets are fighting for the division and the Yankees are 8 back in July...

[metirish]

Ceetar wrote: Mets a laughingstock with these Wilpon is irate stories.... It's the offseason. When the Mets are fighting for the division and the Yankees are 8 back in July...