metsmarathon

i don't quite understand how you could have murphy ahead of wright. yeah, he played hte full season, but in 2/3 the plate appearances, wright had 6 fWAR to murphy's 3 fWAR. bbref has it at 5.9 WAR to 1.9 WAR, an even larger margin, due to their harsher assessment of murphy's defense. wright was a stealth MVP candidate before he got hurt, and his prorated production put him at the top of the NL (second, perhaps, only to hanley ramirez). as it is, fangraphs has him as the 4th highest WAR total in the NL, and bbref has him at 8th best. murphy is nowhere near hte top of these lists (82nd and 75th, respectively). wright versus harvey, and murphy versus byrd are tougher calls, but wright versus murphy should be a no brainer.

i'm okay with the mets showing interest in furcal. i'm not okay with the notion of furcal being the primary starting shortstop going into next year. i think last year was not representative, necessarily, of what we should expect from tejada (the kid is only 24, damnit!). can he step forward, though? i don't really know. if furcal provides some insurance beyond turner and quintanilla, i suppose that's fine. the last two seasons furcal was healthy, he OPS+ed at 80 & 85. in those same two seasons, tejada OPS+ed 97 & 91. last year's OPS+ of 49 was putrid, though. but it's reason enough to believe that tejada should be the (far) better option.

i'm somewhat split between fuck them and all of baseball until the horrible iniquity is corrected, and follow them and longingly wish for their return.

he wasn't even the comebackiest player on his own team. brett gardner put up about 4 WAR after missing much of last year. rivera put up 2.5ish. in the NL, its gotta be marlon byrd (5 WAR), right? ok maybe hanley ramirez could get it (5.4 WAR in 2/3 of the season, after 0.7 in 1/3 of a season last year)

Infielders Robinson Cano, LAD Stephen Drew, NYM Mike Napoli, BOS Omar Infante, NYY Juan Uribe, CLE James Loney, MIL Mark Ellis, NYY Jhonny Peralta, ATL Outfielders Shin-Soo Choo, CHC Jacoby Ellsbury, NYM Curtis Granderson, TEX Kendrys Morales, TOR Nelson Cruz, NYY Carlos Beltran, STL Marlon Byrd, PIT Chris Young, OAK David Murphy, SEA David DeJesus, TB Nate McLouth, OAK Catchers Brian McCann, PHI Jarrod Saltalamacchia, ATL Carlos Ruiz, BOS AJ Pierzynski, TBR Starting Pitchers Matt Garza, LAA Ricky Nolasco, NYM Ubaldo Jimenez, CLE Ervin Santana, KC Hiroki Kuroda, NYY Scott Feldman, TEX AJ Burnett, ATL Josh Johnson, NYY Tim Hudson, ATL Bronson Arroyo, SFG Scott Kazmir, NYM Phil Hughes, OAK Paul Maholm, CLE Bartolo Colon, PIT Relief Pitchers Joe Nathan, TEX Grant Balfour, DET Juaquin Benoit, PHI Fernando Rodney, LAA Edward Mujica, NYY Koji Uehara, BOS Joe Smith, TBR

i've only ever seen bits and pieces of titanic. i still need to see gravity.

arbitration time is upon us! bring on the adjustments!

additional quotes from beltran shed perhaps more light on his opinion... "When you try to do those things sometimes, you know, you get that attention," Beltran said. "And you don't want to wake up nobody. I always thought if you hit a home run off a pitcher, you've got to make him believe he made a mistake. You don't wake him up. Or next time, the pitcher's going to be more focused with you and he's going to try harder to get you out. "So he will learn. I don't think he's a bad kid. I just think he doesn't know right now." ... and for what it's worth, i think it's valid, if if does somewhat feed into a sports cliche. don't give the opponent bulletin board material, or they'll try extra super hard to beat you. instead of the only just kinda trying to win that they're doing now, in the playoffs, i guess....

i hope pete rose jr was not your alias in the game...

so i thought i'd take a look at hte players listed here and see what bbref's mot similar players thingy says about their expected level of production moving forward. maybe there's a hidden gem somewhere in the thickets. or maybe htey all suck. why not, right? so what i'll put down is, for each player, the number of relevant comparable players, teh average number of years played, average number of games played (and games started for pitchers), and average WAR for the remainder of htese players careers. this is kinda what i did way back in may in the choo thread, not that anybody really gave it much thought. Jose Abreu, 1B: total wildcard. Bronson Arroyo, SP: (9) 1 year, 27 games 21 games started, 0.1 WAR Carlos Beltran, OF: (8) 3 years, 348 games, 1.8 WAR Marlon Byrd, OF: (6) 1 year, 161 games, 1.0 WAR John Buck, C: (8) 3 years, 352 games, 3.2 WAR Chris Capuano, SP: (4) 3 years, 62 games 49 games started, 3.1 WAR Joba Chamberlain, Yankees, RP: (7) 4 years, 176 games, 30 games started, 3.0 WAR Shin-Soo Choo, OF: (9) 3 years, 354 games, 2.4 WAR Nelson Cruz, OF: (5) 3 years, 265 games, 0.7 WAR Stephen Drew, SS: (8) 5 years, 600 games, 4.9 WAR Yunel Escobar, SS: (8) 4 years, 494 games, 5.6 WAR Jason Frasor, RP: (6) 2 years, 127 games, 0 games started, 1.5 WAR Curtis Granderson, OF: (8) 4 years 373 games, 5.0 WAR LaTroy Hawkins, RP: (6) approximately 1 year, less than 1 WAR J.P Howell, RP: (5) 4 years 201 games 0 games started 2.4 WAR Josh Johnson, SP: (8) 4 years 125 games 51 games started 2.5 WAR bonus money's no option pitchers: 1. Matt Garza (8) 4 years 122 games 97 games started 4.7 WAR 2. Ricky Nolasco (7) 4 years 113 games 93 games started 5.5 WAR 3. Ubaldo Jimenez (7) 5 years 134 games 91 games started 5.8 WAR 4. Hiroki Kuroda (7) 1 year 39 games 17 games started 0.8 WAR but comparables aren't really valid. 5. Tim Lincecum (7) 5 years 151 games 145 games started 16.5 WAR (a pair of HOF comps helps) Boone Logan, Yankees RP: (3) 3 years 116 games 0 games started 0 WAR Nate McLouth, OF: (7) 3 years 390 games 3.8 WAR David Murphy, OF: (6) 3 years 232 games -0.1 WAR Jhonny Peralta, SS: (7) 4 years 543 games 6.8 WAR others: Phil Hughes (4) 4 years 97 games 82 games started 3.1 WAR Tim Stauffer (10) 3 years 113 games 26 games started 2.8 WAR Mike Morse (6) 4 years 415 games 3.3 WAR Nick Punto (6) 4 years 269 games 2.2 WAR so what does this tell us? well, the most important takeaway is that most players out there aren't really going to give you more than 3 WAR over hte next 3-4 years, and some much less. so spend and plan accordingly. peralta's 6.8 projected WAR translates to about $34M current year dollars. yunel escobar comes in at $28M and granderson at $25M. oh, and tim lincecum projects to $80M of value over the remainder of his career, though there's a really big standard deviation on that one. unexpectedly, nate mclouth projects out to more value over hte next three years than choo or beltran, giving back 3.8 WAR, or $19M in value. could probably get him for less than that, making him a not altogether unreasonable target. presuming of course you allow this methodology to hold any sway in your thought processes. OE: i left off jacoby ellsbury: (7) 6 years 716 games, 9.0 WAR. he'll command more than the projected $46M value he'll return. and for bonus material: hunter pence, recently re-upped for big bucks. (9) 7 years 801 games 9.3 WAR. double bonus material: robinson cano: (8) 5 years, 679 games, 13.5 WAR. triple bonus material: david wright, (6) 9 years, 1168 games, 27 WAR. for what its worth...

if the braves were really upset, they should've proved him wrong. whiny bitches.

jay bruce? what, is it the award for the player with the highest ISO? he's nowhere near the hitter either votto or choo were this year. fangraphs has: votto at 46.0 batting runs above average, and 6.2 WAR choo at 40.9 batting runs above average, and 5.2 WAR bruce at 13.7 batting runs above average, and 4.1 WAR bbref has them at 44 / 39 / 15 batting runs, but values bruce and choo as much better and worse, respectively, on defense, giving WAR values of 6.4 / 4.2 / 5.1 for votto / choo / bruce, respectively.

whenever i go to the mall, i park at sears.

todays game had 122 + 159 = 281 pitches total thrown (includes throws to first and the like), per bbref. no data on number of pitches in the '73 game

John Cougar Lunchbucket wrote: G-Fafif wrote: FWIW, Murph's Schaefer pointage per game played was .666, David's was .674, Byrd's was .692. Harvey's was 3.21, including for his PH appearance, though with pitchers it's a different ballgame (which I guess is a pun). You've stumbled upon my long-forgotten stat, the Schaefer Refreshment Index. i think you could also look at sip rate, or percentage of games played in which a player recieved schaefer votes.

injuries aside, david had a great year. an outstanding one. fangraphs has him at 6.0 WAR in 112 games. only 5 NL position players had a better WAR. prorate that out to the same 157 games that NL WAR leader andrew mccutchen has, and he'd project to 8.4 WAR, to mccutchen's 8.2 WAR. only mike trout (10.4 WAR) and hanley ramirez (5 WAR in 86 games, prorated 9.1 WAR) had more productive years, per fangraphs. bbref has him at 5.9 WAR, behind 7 other NL position players, projecting out to 8.3 WAR, bettered by only mike trout (9.2 WAR), carlos gomez (8.4 WAR in 147 games, prorated to 8.9 WAR) and hanley ramirez again (5.4 WAR in 86 games, prorated to 9.9 WAR) on a /157 game basis. on a /157 game basis, this season is effectively tied with 2007 as the best of david's career, using either websites WAR formulation. an argument could be made that he wuz robbed by the schaefer voters. or, more correctly, that the schaefer voting process masks consistency in favor of streakiness and hotness (to include anthony recker). one of the two. as of the time of my inactivity (and david's injury), i had wright and murphy effectively tied in schaeffer metrics (positive game-by-game production) though david had a lesser amount of negative game-by-game production, which schaefer does not, cannot, and [u:14tyhcsn]should not[/u:14tyhcsn] account for.

i'd love to see a schaefer graph, showing the growing schaefer totals for all players as the season progressed. but you already do more than enough fine work, so i'm hardly demanding anything here.

is there perhaps something about hte batters' eye that's masking the ball as pitchers deliver it? could this drive some of the difference? interestingly, home vs away, the mets hitters have an identical bb/k rate, though lower rates of k's and bb's on the road. [table:3rj5604k][tr:3rj5604k][td:3rj5604k]stat[/td:3rj5604k][td:3rj5604k]home[/td:3rj5604k][td:3rj5604k]away[/td:3rj5604k][/tr:3rj5604k][tr:3rj5604k][td:3rj5604k]bb%[/td:3rj5604k][td:3rj5604k]8.7%[/td:3rj5604k][td:3rj5604k]7.8%[/td:3rj5604k][/tr:3rj5604k][tr:3rj5604k][td:3rj5604k]k%[/td:3rj5604k][td:3rj5604k]23.2%[/td:3rj5604k][td:3rj5604k]21.4%[/td:3rj5604k][/tr:3rj5604k][tr:3rj5604k][td:3rj5604k]bb/k[/td:3rj5604k][td:3rj5604k]0.37[/td:3rj5604k][td:3rj5604k]0.37[/td:3rj5604k][/tr:3rj5604k][tr:3rj5604k][td:3rj5604k]babip[/td:3rj5604k][td:3rj5604k]0.273[/td:3rj5604k][td:3rj5604k].309[/td:3rj5604k][/tr:3rj5604k][tr:3rj5604k][td:3rj5604k]gb/fb[/td:3rj5604k][td:3rj5604k]1.09[/td:3rj5604k][td:3rj5604k]1.38[/td:3rj5604k][/tr:3rj5604k][tr:3rj5604k][td:3rj5604k]ld%[/td:3rj5604k][td:3rj5604k]19.7%[/td:3rj5604k][td:3rj5604k]20.2%[/td:3rj5604k][/tr:3rj5604k][tr:3rj5604k][td:3rj5604k]gb%[/td:3rj5604k][td:3rj5604k]41.9%[/td:3rj5604k][td:3rj5604k]46.3%[/td:3rj5604k][/tr:3rj5604k][tr:3rj5604k][td:3rj5604k]fb%[/td:3rj5604k][td:3rj5604k]38.4%[/td:3rj5604k][td:3rj5604k]33.5%[/td:3rj5604k][/tr:3rj5604k][tr:3rj5604k][td:3rj5604k]iffb%[/td:3rj5604k][td:3rj5604k]11.2%[/td:3rj5604k][td:3rj5604k]9.4%[/td:3rj5604k][/tr:3rj5604k][tr:3rj5604k][td:3rj5604k]hr/fb[/td:3rj5604k][td:3rj5604k]7.7%[/td:3rj5604k][td:3rj5604k]9.8%[/td:3rj5604k][/tr:3rj5604k][tr:3rj5604k][td:3rj5604k]ifh%[/td:3rj5604k][td:3rj5604k]4.3%[/td:3rj5604k][td:3rj5604k]8.3%[/td:3rj5604k][/tr:3rj5604k][tr:3rj5604k][td:3rj5604k]buh%[/td:3rj5604k][td:3rj5604k]16.3%[/td:3rj5604k][td:3rj5604k]25.5%[/td:3rj5604k][/tr:3rj5604k][/table:3rj5604k] i don't have the time right now to put up a table for hte pitchers, but their babip is higher on the road as well, 0.283 vs 0.307. interestingly, at home, the mets pitchers have a hr/fb% of 11.1% compared to 8.7% on the road. which makes me believe the problem is in the approach to hitting at home vs on the road, either collecitvely, individually, or organizationally. one of them. or it's wickedly bad luck, or that they put their worse hitters in home games. that could be it too.

thank you for doing this again this year. i'm sorry to have fallen off the wagon in july, though i hope to still be able to update my massive spreadsheet eventually and play along at home, if retroactively.

don't forget, in just 15 days, arbitration opens up, and you all can lay a serious financial whooping on me!

Yup. Doesn't appear to in my espn and yahoo leagues, but ottoneu does it right. Holy shit that was tight. Happy to have eked out a narrow win, thanks in part to a missed call on a bouncing ball into leonys martin's glove, keeping wil Myers from scoring a run. I wonder if there's a tie-breaker on ottoneu, and feel somewhat fortunate not to need to find out. That was almost an epic collapse. Me and my big damned mouth...

there's still a game tonight. muddy chickens trails the death machine by one run, and has three players going tonight, whereas the machine of death does not carry any rays or rangers. if muddy chickens scores one run, we tie for first. if he scores two runs, he wins. unless i break my stalemate at OBP with the mohawk red flyers. we're deadlocked down to four decimal places. i, too, have a few guys going tonight, and hopefully it swings in the right direction!

Ceetar wrote: Edgy MD wrote: Fuck Jeter. By all accounts, most people have. damnit! i get left out again!

Edgy MD wrote: David Wright's wishes and heartfelt concern are the only things that have kept me married. that surely took a lot, considering how anthony recker threatened to tear it all apart.

the all star game being in citi field is a nice thing that happened on their watch.