metsmarathon

i wonder how much nomar would command...? not that i'm seriously saying we should go hard after him - just raising the question.

heck, i posted the formula, and i don't like it... but it seems to've done a decent enough job at picking NL MVPs, according to the article...

lets give this a try. i cheated and built it in excel, then stuffed it full of the html table tags. it's just too much work for a guy who can't be bothered to punctuate, y'know! Year Last First Tm Pos Batting Pitching Fielding ExpWS WSP WSAB Total WS

i do need to learn html-tables. or start print-screening my excel sheets. is this thread the place to bitch about the whole "take a guy off his team" line of argument that happens in some mvp races? regardless, its starting to come up in cy young discussions that i hear on teh radio, and it seems to me that its something of a new phenomenon. am i right that its a new phenomenon, or has it always been the case that voters weigh team record and place in the standings when figuring on their cy youngs? i mean, i totally understand that team ability is built into the win stat in such a way as does not as much appear in the "mvp stats" but this year i've heard pub for chris carpenter because he's getting his team to win their division. i mean, his ERA is also lowest, he leads the league in strikeouts, and he's only a win behind webb, and should likely win the award based on that - but are they suddenly taking into account team wins and losses? and if so, shouldn't they take into account a differential wins/losses kind of thing, whereby a better pitcher on a worse team is benefitted? (i argue like it matters...)

Bell 3 Wright 1 Bradford 1

glavine 5 reyes 2 valentin 2 wright 1

i think i killed the thread...

this thread reminds me of this: http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=1306 for which i'm not able to find an update (i'm not looking all that hard) i wonder how this formula does this year... * Leading the league in runs batted in. * Leading the league in batting average. * Leading the league in home runs. * Driving in 100 runs. * Having a .300 batting average. * Playing for a division- or league-winning team. * Playing an up-the-middle position for a division or league winner. and i'll leave this tabulation up to some HTML-able admin to clean up PlayerRBI LeadHR LeadAVG Lead100 RBI.300 AVGDiv. WinnerUp Middle on a Div. WinnerPointsRBIHRAVGSumR. Howard1101100413856316510A. Pujols0001110311845321484D. Wright0001110310924311444C. Beltran0001011311339284436J. Reyes000011137519300394P. Loduca00001113414311356K. Lofton00001113362305343L. Berkman0001100212039312471M. Cabrera0001100210625339470G. Atkins0001100210425326455F. Sanchez00101002766340422N. Garciaparra000011028017309406S. Rolen000011028119304404C. Delgado0001010210137264402M. Holliday000010019528336459C. Utley000010018928304421C. Jones000010017923318420J. Bay0001000110132282415R. Durham000010018623300409A. Jones0001000110833261402S. Hatteberg000010015113304368O. Vizquel00001001452301357D. Roberts00001001402303345 but basically, ryan howard wins the MVP, followed by pujols, wright, and beltran. reyes comes in next if his average can stay at or above .300, and loduca follows if "up the middle" includes catchers.

i just hate that all these sports writers and broadcasters and fans are lying to themselves and to us that the game is not clean.

"the iron triangle". am i alone in thinking that could make a fun euphamism, but am not quite sure how?

i'm hoping for some meaningful games, eventually.

in his day, they didn't have bases. they had rocks. it helps you understand the dour expression.

is it me, or in the first video, do they have the David Wright barehander from last year? or did that happen this year, too?

i would build my staff as follows: pedro glavine trachsel maine with el duque as my parachute, and oliver as my safety net. i'm more comfortable with duque in the pen if needed than trachsel. but i'm willing to flip em. in the pen, are: wagner heilman mota bradford and i guess feliciano over robo. that makes, what? eleven? i'm cool with that.

cliff makes me look injury-resistant.

Delgado 3 OHernandez 2 RHernandez 1 Mota 1

Ring 3 Bell 2

Maine 5 Beltran 2 Wright 1 Feliciano 1 Heilman 1

Wright 4 Delgado 3 Glavine 2 Beltran 1

Wright 3 Reyes 2 Oliver 2 Loduca 1 Valentin 1 Chavez 1

win expectancy going into the delgado at bat (based on retrosheet data from 79-04 http://www.walkoffbalk.com/): .007 (24 wins / 3331 games) win expectancy from any of the outcomes of delgado's at bat: home run - .026 (100 / 3787) on third - .019 (5 / 264) on second - .018 (15 / 833) on first - .028 (52 / 1830) using the most recent data available, 00-04, the win expectancies are as follows: going in - .005 (3 / 605) home run - 0.027 (19 / 691) on third - .016 (1 / 62) on second - .028 (7 / 247) on first - .024 (8 / 330) you wouldn't think that getting a single or a walk is as much or more likely to lead to a win as a home run. but it looks like it is. odd that a triple looks like the least best way to bring about a win... if i were to speculate on teh root of the data, i would guess that walks are the root of the first base boost. a wilder pitcher being less able to subsequently get hte necessary out to close out the game. but that's a guess. regardless, these are fairly small sample sizes, and, especailly from 00-04, one game either way really swings the numbers. i guess you could say a walk or single is as important as a home run in teh situation, but it looks like both are better than a triple. go figure.

i would much rather see us go in with trax and maine in the rotation, and el duque in the pen with oliver if needed.

Bannister, Brian - 10 Delgado, Carlos - 10 Floyd, Cliff - 2 Glavine, Tom - 9 Heilman, Aaron - 7 Hernandez, Orlando - 0 Maine, John - 10 Milledge, Lastings - 9 Trachsel, Steve - 2 Valentin, Jose - 2

WOW, DW!

Edgy DC wrote: I think nothing. i said the same thing not ten minutes ago to a coworker in response to a technical question. it brought a chuckle.