smg58

Part of it is that AAVs are going up in general. But anybody who can be a third starter or better in a good rotation will keep their value. We'll see if the back-end starters get the kind of contracts they are looking for, though. It will also be interesting to see how the market for relievers is affected.

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2018/12/luis-valbuena-former-pirates-infielder-jose-castillo-killed-in-car-accident-in-venezuela.html An awful tragedy.

Probably had his career year. The versatility makes him desirable, but it makes him desirable to everybody. He's not the kind of player I'd get into a bidding war over. I bet you could get Asdrubal Cabrera for half the years and half the AAV.

Weaver and Kelly were at least as highly regarded as Kellenic and Dunn are now, but they hiccuped at the big-league level. Weaver is sort of in a similar place as Rosario -- the talent is there but the results aren't yet. If the light clicks on for one of them, it will more than justify losing one year of Goldschmidt when they are rebuilding. As for the Cardinals -- they have a glut of starting pitchers, another catching prospect who is as well regarded, and Molina still isn't going anywhere just yet. They dealt from surplus to get a year of arguably the best first baseman in the league. For now it makes them the team to beat in their division, but the Brewers and Cubs have more than enough time to respond.

random thought: Do you think Callaway is worried that he will get none of the credit if this year's team succeeds, and all of the blame if they don't?

Was afflicted by at least seven of the ten plagues. I don't really remember all that much, other than being perpetually bullish on him and one injury after another getting in his way. Hopefully something will go right for him, but I'm not mad that it won't be here.

That's one way to make him totally dead to me.

Centerfield wrote: If I had to guess, BVW's plan is to win now at all costs, to hell with the future. Try to win during the deGrom/Syndergaard window. Then tear it down and do an Astros-style rebuild. Hope that by the time the new wave comes in, the Wilpons are in a better financial situation. I agree with the first part of this. But a few more trades like the last one, and the opportunity to rebuild sooner than 2024 will vanish.

Benjamin Grimm wrote: I get the feeling that Brodie is thinking, "Wow! Trading is fun!" I think up a lot of WATPs in my head that I know are ridiculous, so I don't bother mentioning them. He actually made one of his happen. On some level, I give him credit. But I'd rather he play mad scientist with somebody else's favorite team.

Well they are about $15M below last year's payroll presently and didn't really add anything in the deal, so they have at least some money to play with. Pollock has the upside to be the second best centerfielder in baseball, and the injury record to advise betting against that. I could justify a three-year gamble, but four would make me uncomfortable and five is right out.

I would not trade four years of Nimmo for two of Realmuto. Rosario is trickier; his upside is still high, but last year’s production from him wouldn’t be that hard to replace.

Wow. His velocity had an unexplained drop last season, and while he pitched through it and pitched well, it’s enough of a red flag to limit what I’d have bid on him.

The Phillies’ deal for Segura was perfectly reasonable in comparison, especially since they moved Santana’s contract in the process. And they let the Nationals — who, last I checked, were also division rivals of the Phillies — outbid then on Corbin. Nothing stupid yet. From them, at least.

PS Speaking of d'Arnaud -- I am now him on the left, and it lists his positions as C and DH. I feel obligated on his behalf to lobby for 2B and 3B as well.

smg58 wrote: Fine. I'll bet he starts the year in our pen. Serves me right for betting...

We never really got to see what he can do. I thought it was a perfectly good signing, but there is always a danger with workhorses out of the pen -- they tend to have rubber arms until they don't. He really could have used a month of rehabbing, but the Mets could not afford to wait at that point. He did show some flashes though. I would have been willing to give him another shot this year.

Still a solid all around defender. If he gets his OPS back into the 700s he'd be a good role player. Might be worth it for 1 year at $4M with a team option.

I opted for kinda don't like it. If Diaz pitches for us like he did for the Mariners last year, it will be good enough. My opinion will change for the worse if McNeil gets relegated to the bench or traded, however.

The team was in denial for too long that he was playing hurt. The fact that he played pretty well on his return (.243/.344/.467) seems to have already been forgotten. I would argue that the contract looks bad in hindsight more because of Brandon Nimmo than because of Jay Bruce.

batmagadanleadoff wrote: Or unless Syndergaard's ulnar collateral is hanging by a thread. He will be subjected to a physical by whatever team tries to trade for him. If the trade goes through, his UCL is not hanging by a thread.

In 2017, Bruce and Swarzak together were worth more than Cano. Last year they both played hurt. Bruce had an OPS over .800 when he returned, which was perfectly in line with what he normally does when healthy. That won't make anybody take on his full contract by itself, but he's worth a lot more than $3M over 2 years. It's also worth mentioning that they're both younger. So Cano has hung around 3 WAR for three of the last 4 seasons. Let's start with that as his baseline. He's 36, so we'll go with 3, 2.5, 2, 1.5, and 1 WAR over his five seasons. That's 10 WAR, worth roughly $80M. The Mariners are eating $20M, so he's at -$20M by himself. Bruce has 2.4 WAR combined over the last two seasons. We'll go with that as his median likely value, making him at -$7M by himself. Swarzak has 2.0 WAR combined over his last two seasons. 1 WAR is worth $8M, so he's break-even. So you're counting on four years of Diaz being worth $13M more than what Kellenic, Dunn, and Bautista can do before free agency. Diaz had 3.2 WAR in a year he's not likely to top, but we'll be optimistic and give him 12 WAR over the next 4 years. We'll also give him salaries of $0.5M, $7.2M, $10.8M, and $14.4M -- so we'll say $96M of value for a $33M cost, for a $63M net. Make no mistakes, HE'S the key to the deal. If he pitches to last year for four straight years with us, the deal will look all right. But that's not a guarantee. The gamble is that Kellenic, Dunn, and Bautista will combine for value less than $50M, or a bit more than 6 WAR, above their pre-free agency salaries, assuming we get four years like 2017 from Diaz. Basically, two good years (or one exceptional year) from one of these guys makes it a push. I do think it's fair to say that the deal makes the 2019 Mets better. But it's also perfectly fair to ask if the improvement could have been made in a less costly fashion.

I'd offer 3 and 45. I don't think I'd go four years and then give up a pick for him as well.

This assumes that Bruce and Swarzak are completely valueless in the meantime, which is naive at best.

Centerfield wrote: And I get it. Defense matters, but come on. I'm not overly enamored of any of the catcher options. I'm worried that they're all overvalued, which is why I can live with bringing d'Arnaud back. We don't really have the prospects to trade at this point, either. Moving on.

It gives them options. I think d'Arnaud could work as the righty half of a platoon, but you'd still need to find the other half. It's also possible that somebody is willing to offer more for Plawecki than he is actually worth, in which case holding on to Travis would make more sense.