smg58

My heart and my head are in different places with Wilmer. He was as likable as any Met I've watched, but he seemed to regress last year when we needed him to step forward, and his arthritis won't just go away. I might consider signing him for half what he would have gotten in arbitration, but even that would depend on a fair assessment of TJ Rivera's health.

I'm really not going to speculate at this point on what BVW is thinking. Cespedes is a Met, and most likely will be for two more years. That is not necessarily a bad thing. He is still on track to resume baseball activities other than running in February, so I'm optimistic we will see him before July. It's important to note he wouldn't have gone through the surgery if he wouldn't be better for it long-term. But how do you plan for him? I'd prefer to keep Nimmo and Conforto in the corners, but that is obviously not an option once he comes back. You could look for a taker, but that will not be easy. There may be some demand for a big bat DH in the American League, and Cespedes will be able to DH before he will be able to play the outfield. He might not miss much time at all for an American League team. But you'd still be lucky to get half his salary off the books. It may also be possible to package him for somebody like Zack Greinke. Greinke has a slightly bigger salary for three years instead of two. The D-Backs balked at taking on Carlos Santana in a deal with the Phillies, but a healthy Cespedes could get them a lot more this time next year (if not July or August) than Santana could (i.e., first baseman that might not give you an .800 OPS are basically valueless right now). They'd still want more than just Cespedes in return, though, and our flexibility in that regard just shrunk quite a bit. But it's also possible that nobody makes an offer that isn't insulting, if we get one at all. In that case, you prepare to go with him. Maybe you don't spend on centerfield, and instead aim high with catcher (not to mention the other bullpen spots that still need filling).

Benjamin Grimm wrote: Are we even sure yet that it's a "fact" that McNeil isn't included? Fair point. Nothing is official yet, but it's being reported that way.

The fact that McNeil is not included makes it only marginally awful. But it's still not clear where Cano and McNeil will both play. It's worth keeping in mind that Cano's bat presents a decent, but not huge, upgrade over the kind of first basemen that get claimed off waivers. The bottom line is: you are trading your #3 and #4 prospects, plus taking on an albatross contract that belongs to a confirmed cheater that you don't yet have a position for, for a relief pitcher. Diaz is really good, and I will feel bad if the fan reaction to him is negative over this, but he is a relief pitcher. I suppose it makes the Mets a few games better over the short term without substantially adding to the 2019 payroll. But now we need more bullpen depth (we traded two relievers and only got one back, and were shorthanded to begin with), plus we have unresolved situations at catcher and centerfield that went unaddressed. And we added a medium-impact left-handed bat when we needed a high-impact right-handed one. And trading multiple top-5 prospects while taking on a contract that will get worse over the next five years is not a recipe for sustained success. It gets worse if the gutted farm system and burdensome contract come with no desire to add payroll.

He hit a brick wall his second year in AAA and has never recovered. The upside is probably still there (he's younger than Jeff McNeil), so why not? on edit: He had a monster year at AAA in 2015; his 2016 was better than I remembered it, even if not close to what he did the year before. He had a chance to force the Mets to call him up, and I think the Mets were hoping he would, but it just didn't happen. Then they needed an outfielder with pop more than they needed a AAA second baseman, and never had a reason to regret the deal.

So remember when the Phillies owner said they might even “get a little stupid” with their offers this offseason? It’s time to put your money where your mouth is, buddy.

Centerfield wrote: They're saying McNeil is being discussed. OMG. Someone shoot me. This is what scares me. The Mariners have made a point of getting players back who may already be better than what they're giving up -- and who on the Mets would better fit that description? Especially if either Dee Gordon or Mallex Smith is part of the deal, then second base opens up for them. Personally, if I were the Mariners, I would offer up Gordon, Cano, and Diaz for Cespedes, McNeil, Lugo, and Dom Smith, while eating $10M of the last three years of the contract. Why Cespedes? Because that might be more attractive to the Mets than Bruce, and because Cespedes will be able to DH sooner than he will be able to play left field. My fear is that the Mets would accept such an offer.

It's gonna get Chili at Citi Field this Spring! [tweet]https://twitter.com/JonHeyman/status/1067951171229372416[/tweet] Not sure how I feel about this. Things ended badly between him and the Cubs. https://sportsmockery.com/2018/10/report-chili-davis-and-cubs-players-just-never-really-clicked/ I'm not sure how much of it was him taking the fall for a good team seemingly slumping all at once, but the players appeared to have issues with him. And they apparently didn't end a whole lot better with the Red Sox either: https://chicago.suntimes.com/sports/red-sox-owner-john-henry-throws-shade-at-chili-davis Now a huge part of that was the one-year void the Red Sox had at DH. But that's two straight seasons where a team with a lineup full of big names couldn't move on from him fast enough.

Waiting for the inevitable promo shot with Quacker Jack.

bmfc1 wrote: Benjamin Grimm wrote: Mike Puma wrote: the veteran lefty owns a career 1.85 ERA at Citi Field Yeah but he's facing the Mets. Well I guess you would have to sell Gio as a viable alternative to Thor somehow. But if the best you could do from the Padres for Syndergaard is a 19-year-old prospect who hasn't reached high-A yet, a centerfielder who may or may not be an upgrade over Juan Lagares, and a glove-first catcher, then why bother signing somebody like Gonzalez at all? There'd be no point in pretending you're trying to win now if you make that deal, and Gonzalez won't help you win down the road.

It's tough to read too much into anything, especially before you know the end results. It sounds like Brodie is willing to get creative to make something happen, which is fine if the "something" turns out to be beneficial. I don't think he's GMing by opinion poll, or at least I certainly hope he's not. What fans think of a deal immediately matters a lot less than if they're happy or angry a year from now. On the other hand, I hear all these WATPs and I can't help thinking, "or they could just sign somebody."

The Rangers re-sign Jesse Chavez for 2 years and 8 million. A 35-year-old for whom the lightbulb finally clicked last year, Chavez had a 2.55 ERA and a 1.06 WHIP in a whopping 95 relief innings for the Rangers and Cubs. It's a huge bargain if he can repeat that -- even if the Rangers don't contend, they could get a very nice haul for him in July.

Smith is left-handed, and Cano would either play first ahead of Alonso or third ahead of Frazier (or play second while McNeil slides over). That's five lefties out of eight.

You'd be giving up two of your four best prospects and taking on Cano. It would be win now, or else. I could understand (though not necessarily agree with) re-tooling to try to win in the early 2020s, but this deal would punt the early 2020s. Diaz might be the best reliever in baseball right now and I like Mallex Smith, but that's still not that big of a return for the cost. And that's before you factor in the potential for Cano to disappear for a full season and embarrass the team in the process. Or that it actually makes the lineup even more left-handed than it already is.

bmfc1 wrote: #2 -- Keep Jeffy away from female employees. #4 Keep Jeffy away from the manager, the GM, the players, the medical staff, Jay Horowitz, the grounds crew, the Shake Shack... #5 Keep a separate set of books for Freddy and Jeffy so they think the Mets have more money to spend on the team.

The Mariners have already made it clear that they have no intentions of trading Diaz or Hanigan, and I can't fathom they would change their minds just to get rid of Cano. Nor would I take Cano just to get rid of Bruce (or even Cespedes). There is a whole lot of "nothing adds up" here. On the other hand, it's also worth pointing out that any deal involving Edwin Diaz and Robinson Cano is 99% about Edwin Diaz.

to paraphrase Queen: No, no, no, no, no, no, no.

Alonso did outperform Smith by a very large amount in Vegas last year, even given the strikeout rate (and a very slow start that he recovered from pretty strongly -- before the PCL All-Star break he had a .698 OPS with 29 Ks in 76 ABs, and after it he had a 1.043 OPS with 49 Ks in 182 ABs). Yeah the K rate was still higher than you'd like, but it got demonstrably better as he got used to the pitching and the overall jump in performance speaks for itself. His K rate (18.3% per plate appearance) and OPS (1.015) at AA were comparable to Paul Goldshmidt's (20.1% and 1.061) at the same age (23). Goldschmidt skipped AAA entirely, and was none the worse for wear. That does not mean that Alonso is going to be Goldschmidt, but it does suggest that his upside is higher than Smith's, or Jay Bruce's for that matter.

The Phillies owner said they might even "get a little stupid" about the offers they hand out. I'd like to see them get a lot stupid, personally, but can you imagine Fred or Jeff talking like that?

Camargo can (and presumably will) move around the diamond for the Braves this year. And it's not like the Braves are screwed if Donaldson gets hurt.

Stashing him in AAA makes sense you anticipate moving one or two of the remaining first base options.

Right. If he goes unclaimed (and he doesn't have enough service time to qualify as a minor league free agent), you can stick him in AAA.

I'd have done one and 25. He's totally worth the gamble at the price the Braves paid.

And who's glad we didn't get Mike Olt?

I was mostly quiet on that thread (that was the end of my first semester as a professor and it was frantic). I remember having lunch with seawolf after a class at Stony Brook, and telling him that Dickey was my favorite met since Piazza but for that return I'd have moved him.