smg58

I could see Pollock or Ryu taking the QO and betting on himself staying healthy next year, but that's far from a given. I would keep an eye on Pollock should his market drop if he doesn't take the QO. You can probably get two good relievers for the price of Kimbrel, plus hold on to the draft pick. I'd be shocked if he winds up anywhere other than back in Boston. I'd rather have Ramos and the pick instead of Grandal. It will be interesting to see if this makes their markets shift. Keuchel is even less desirable now.

I'm not sure if Trevor Rosenthal was even on anybody's list, but the Nats just signed him for one year and $7.5M plus incentives. He missed all of 2018 due to TJS, and I had totally forgotten about him.

Part of it is he was the best guy available, and part of it is that he got off to a crummy start but had a much better second half, especially after they traded their previous closer.

I'm sure there are a few between Ottavino and Romo. Last year saw good production from Tony Watson and Hector Rondon at bargain prices, but most of the pricier free agents turned out to be duds (Swarzak was hardly unique in that regard). So don't chase last year's stats (i.e., I'd like to see Ottavino do that twice before I pay him what he's likely to get), and do your homework on smaller names (and even bigger names like Greg Holland who imploded last year).

I'm assuming Machado wanted to play short this year to add to his potential suitors, and will not insist on it if it means turning down the best offer. And if he wants to get off on the wrong foot with the team who's paying him at least a quarter of a billion by dictating who gets displaced by him, especially after his attitude issues this past month, I'm backing off. Frazier is quite dealable. Fangraphs had him worth $11M this past season, which is more than his salary, and he's a decent bounceback candidate. Finding somebody willing to take a gamble on a year of him would not be hard.

The question with Miller and Britton is are they recovering from their injuries, or are they dealing with a lingering issue? I'd have to do more homework (and presumably Brodie is doing just that), but if I decide it's reasonable to bet on their health then sure.

Yeah, I think the Stanton contract will discourage the kind of length that they're suggesting. And there will certainly be player options involved. But Harper and Machado will both get their money.

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2018/11/mlb-free-agent-predictions-2019.html A few of the interesting ones: 1. Bryce Harper – Dodgers. Fourteen years, $420MM. Personally I don't think he or Machado will agree to an average of less than $35M unless it is front-loaded and comes with a player option. Given some of the quotes -- "Harper was easily the best hitter in baseball in 2015, though his only other top 10 finish in wRC+ was in 2017"; "A typical three-year look back (inconvenient given the timing of Harper’s monster year) places him just 34th among position players in FanGraphs Wins Above Replacement"; "Machado may indeed be one of the 10 best position players in baseball heading into 2019, a case which probably cannot be made for Harper" -- you wonder how it is possible to rank him ahead of Machado. You also wonder who thinks he's worth something genuinely stratospheric. And the Mets really don't need another lefty corner outfielder. 2. Manny Machado – Phillies. Thirteen years, $390MM. I fully expect the Phillies to shoot the moon for somebody, so I'm not surprised by the prediction. But I can see the Phillies going ten years at the same dollar value. And no, I wouldn't match that. 4. Dallas Keuchel – Nationals. Four years, $82MM. Four and sixty would be as high as I'd go. 6. Yasmani Grandal – Nationals. Four years, $64MM. My opening offer would be 4 and 60, but I'd go up (in dollars, not years) if I was in the running. My concern is that everybody is looking for catching help, and this will prove to be too small. 8. A.J. Pollock – Giants. Four years, $60MM. Hmm. His upside would make him the second best centerfielder in baseball, but his history says compromising injuries are more likely. I couldn't go four with him. 11. Andrew McCutchen – Cubs. Three years, $45MM. Kind of surprised by the prediction, given the Cubs need pitching more than offense. Personally, I think he's worth less than a healthy Jay Bruce. 13. Josh Donaldson – Cardinals. One year, $20MM. I'd do 25 for one year (assuming Machado goes for more than I'd willingly pay). Donaldson is the only other difference-making right-handed bat besides Machado on the market. If he's willing to bet a year on his health, then so am I. 15. Wilson Ramos – Astros. Three years, $36MM. I'd take him at that price, but again, I'm concerned about a sellers market at catcher. 17. Jeurys Familia – Twins. Three years, $33MM. We're in trouble if the Twins outbid us for anybody. 19. David Robertson – Mets. Three years, $33MM. I don't see us taking Robertson at the same price we could get Familia. 29. Matt Harvey – Reds. Two years, $22MM. Anything more than 1 and 5 for Harvey is nuts. 31. Daniel Murphy – Angels. Two years, $20MM. Probably still worth that to somebody. 34. Joakim Soria – Mets. Two years, $18MM. Not against it, but if I'm spending on two relievers then one of them is a lefty.

Kershaw is already worth less than that. The Yankees bought out Brett Gardner's option but then brought him back for $7.5M. I'm guessing they wouldn't have bothered if Ellsbury were returning.

I'd offer 8 and 280, and expect to be outbid.

Te Mets need to either get creative, or be willing to overpay. I'm hoping for the former, assuming that it's creative in a good way. Welcome Starting Catcher Hunter Wendelstedt The New York Mets announced today that the club has named Hunter Wendelstedt the club's starting catcher for 2019. He will be introduced at a press conference tomorrow at 2:30 p.m. at Citi Field, which you can watch via SNY, the Mets social media channels and mets.com. Wendelstedt, 47, has been a major league umpire since 1998 and has headed the Wendelstedt Umpire School in Florida since the death of his father. He has worked one all star game, four postseasons and one World Series. In 2017, he was named on USA Today's Top 100 "People who Squat in MLB." "Hunter is a tremendous overall athlete, has significant experience behind the plate, and is in a great position to take us to the next level," said Brodie Van Wagenen, Mets GM. "He is from a respected baseball family and we are excited to welcome him into the Mets family. "A great day for the Mets," added Mets COO Jeff Wilpon said. "An excellent step toward sustainable success." Several online posters at the Cranepool Forum praised the move as "innovative" and "outside the box thinking." Van Wagenen stated that Wendelstedt will continue to call balls and strikes during games, it being determined that such an arrangement presented "absolutely no conflict of interest." That made my night.

There are two good free agent catchers and one good (but not Piazza good) trade candidate, and two-thirds of the league could use an upgrade at the position. The market will not be a friendly one. Te Mets need to either get creative, or be willing to overpay. I'm hoping for the former, assuming that it's creative in a good way. Wheeler is much better than Keuchel right now. The Mets need some difference-making right-handed bats, true, but Alonso could be one of those bats. Realmuto may be more valuable than Grandal or Ramos because he's younger, but he isn't so much better than them to justify paying an extortion-level cost in players. Somebody will do just that, but I hope it isn't us. But getting back to Keuchel -- a lot depends on the defense behind him. I do think McNeil is a substantial upgrade over Cabrera (not that that is saying much), and Rosario has the tools to be much better than he has been. Center is a question mark -- Nimmo wasn't bad, but our defense would be better with him at a corner, and how much Lagares will play (and how much we want him to play) is very uncertain. Keuchel would be a risky bet, but I'd keep my eyes on him if it looks like it's taking a while for his market to develop.

Fine. I'll bet he starts the year in our pen.

It's kind of surreal (but also indicative of my age at the time) that I first remember Willie McCovey as a first baseman for the Padres.

Centerfield wrote: I mean, look at this lineup. 1. Nimmo - CF 2. McNeil - 2B 3. Conforto LF 4. Bruce - RF 5. Frazier - 3B 6. Smith - 1B 7. Rosario - SS 8. Plawecki - C In this lineup, the top 3 are arguably good. Conforto is legimately good. Good track record, All-Star caliber player. Nimmo was great, but only has 1 year under his belt. And McNeil could be great but only has 225 career ABs. After that you have 5 guys who failed to reach .700 in OPS. Five guys with an OPS in the .600's. On what planet is that a good lineup? Keeping with my theme: It's reasonable to gamble that Bruce, Frazier, and Smith will improve, at least a little. It's risky to gamble that the light switch will click on with Rosario, but the upside is there. It's reasonable to gamble that McNeil will be pretty good. And that still leaves us quite a bit short.

Centerfield wrote: The danger in saying "we're better than the numbers" is that the speaker will consider all the reasons we should be better, but fail to consider all the reasons we might be worse. Basically every player on your team is a gamble. You pay your money and you take your chances. And the more limited your money is, the more you have to make sure it's directed in the right place, and figure out what gambles are reasonable ones and what ones are not. I would consider it a reasonable gamble that, even with an anticipated regression in DeGrom's numbers, the Mets' rotation will be better overall next year than it was in 2018. That's not where I would prioritize my efforts. The lineup has to be improved somewhere with a high-impact right-handed bat, though (i.e., while there's reason to hope that Cespedes and Alonso will help in that regard at some point next year, it would not be a reasonable gamble to bank on it). But where, and with whom? Machado, sure, but he will sign for a price that 29 GMs out of 30 will think is too high, and you'd be gambling that you're the smart one. But if not him, then who? Donaldson is a gamble that might pay off enormously, and might not pay off at all. AJ Pollock? You're gambling that he can stay healthy for a full season and go back to who he was in 2015. Realmuto? Is he high-impact enough to gamble on the Marlins' asking price? And of course, the worst gamble would be "none of the above." The pen, meanwhile, has three spots out of seven firmly in place -- and that's assuming that it's reasonable to gamble that Swarzak will stay healthy and look more like 2017 version than the 2018 version, and that Gsellman will have better numbers if his innings count is kept around 70. But everybody wants relievers, especially when fewer and fewer teams want to keep their starters in the game the third time through the lineup. And every relief pitcher is a gamble even in a normal market. The bottom line? Standing pat is not an option. Spending is a necessity if you're serious about contending, but so is spending well. And a little luck won't hurt. The challenge for Brodie is daunting, but not impossible if he's the right guy.

It's too soon to tell. He'll be a starter if he stays in the minors, but he has quite a bit more upside than the other guys who are fighting for the last (hopefully only one) bullpen spot, and I wouldn't summarily dismiss going that route with him at this stage of the offseason. And that's just for the short term. We will see how things play out.

Centerfield wrote: Brodie asked Francesa, who in the NL East is going to beat them. The simple answer is Atlanta. They beat the Mets by 13 games. They were 10th in runs scored, the Mets were 23rd. Their bullpen was 17th in ERA. The Mets were 28th. And starting pitching, which is supposed to be our strength, Atlanta was ranked 4th. We were 6th. They do everything better than us. Our lineup finished the year a little better than it started, and the rotation finished the year a lot better than it started. We were sixth despite a nightmarish stretch from Vargas, Harvey pitching himself off the team, Syndergaard missing significant time, and Wheeler and Matz starting the year badly. I'd take an upgrade on Vargas, but I also think its more of a luxury than a necessity. The lineup needs an impact right-handed bat; maybe Alonso emerges and maybe Cespedes ends the year close to top form, but you can't depend on either and neither player is starting the season with us. The pen needs lots of help, and if more teams are determined to yank their starters after five innings, the market for relievers is going to be inflated. That presents a very big challenge. Finding guys who are worth the cost in a sellers' market will not be easy. But that's where we'll see if Brodie cuts it.

A live arm that hasn't yet translated into big-time results. Not unlike Jake DeGrom at this stage, or Bobby Parnell. While we'd all love the former, the latter was pretty good for a while too. He's exhibit A for why I'm glad the AAA team is in Syracuse and not Las Vegas. (Exhibit B was Franklin Kilome, alas.)

I don't see how other teams showing an interest in Bloom would have made him less desirable to the Mets. And while the Giants have a higher payroll, they have so much money tied up in players not worth their bloated contracts that I wouldn't take them over the Mets right now. It will be awkward initially, but if van Wegenen knows what he's doing we'll all get over it quickly. And it's possible that he would have made the best impression with us, too. Hoping for the best, not passing any sort of judgment until I see what he does.

MFS62 wrote: Let me put it this way: I am excited by the prospect of a team making such an outside-the-box hire. But as a Mets fan, I'd prefer to have Bloom, because I wouldn't want my team to be an experiment. You summed up my feelings better than I could.

I remember it like it was yesterday. I remember yesterday like it was 32 years ago.

Centerfield wrote: Of course, if we hire Bloom, then it’s awkward when we sit down to negotiate deGrom’s extension... It's pretty damn awkward either way.

It’s a crummy break, to be sure. The one consolation is that TJS means he has 16 months to recover before Spring 2020. So he probably doesn’t lose more than the one full season. But, nonetheless, shit.

He was definitely hurt. Did fine in a tiny sample size over September for Cleveland, but less fine in playoffs. I didn't get the impression that the injury is something he can't be 100% over in time for spring training. He may want one year with a player option, but with Arenado on the market next year I'd be down with that.