Gwreck

Greene lost the no-hitter but completed the shutout, a 1-0 victory for Cincinnati.

Was poking around the other games tonight and saw something I've never seen before in the Cubs/Reds tilt: a 3-8-6 force play at second base. With a runner on first, Crow-Armstrong smokes a line drive that tips off the first baseman's glove and hits the runner, DH Moises Ballesteros, pretty squarely on the helmet. Ball ricochets into the outfield. Ballesteros is dazed - but still runs to second, where he is forced out to end the top of the fifth inning. If not for Ballesteros' head getting in the way, it would have been the first hit of the game for the Cubs. Hunter Greene has now completed 6 hitless. Ballesteros appears to be ok in the dugout.

Need a pinch runner for Baty. What else are Acuna and Siri doing here?

Frayed Knot wrote: Oh good, an overly loud generic scoreboard exhortation from a wrestling star who may not know how to spell Mets much less actually root for them himself. I wonder how many different cities have a version of that that the Rock recorded for them too? Well: 1. It's John Cena, not The Rock 2. It appears that Cena may well actually be a Mets fan. See, e.g.

Again, I’m not deep into the weeds here but I did read the discussion at the link above that indicates that four different projection modes that are used in creating the odds, which are both forward and backward looking: [bLOCKQUOTE]FanGraphs Projections Mode This mode is forward looking and uses the FanGraphs Depth Charts projections for rate statistics (a 50/50 blend of ZiPS and Steamer) and playing time to estimate the neutral-opponent winning percentage of each team -- in other words, how likely a team would be to beat a .500 opponent on a neutral field. These winning percentages are then used to find the odds of each team winning each remaining game in the major league season. ATC Projections Mode This mode is forward looking and uses the ATC projections for rate statistics (a combination of multiple projection systems) and our FanGraphs Depth Chart playing time to estimate the neutral-opponent winning percentage of each team -- in other words, how likely a team would be to beat a .500 opponent on a neutral field. These winning percentages are then used to find the odds of each team winning each remaining game in the major league season. Season to Date Stats Mode This mode is backward looking and uses current season stats, weighted more heavily towards the most recent games, to calculate the neutral-opponent winning percentage of each team -- in other words, how likely a team would be to beat a .500 opponent on a neutral field. These winning percentages are then used to find the odds of each team winning each remaining game in the major league season. Coin Flip Mode This mode is completely neutral and uses a coin flip to determine the winner of each game, giving each matchup 50/50 odds.[/bLOCKQUOTE]

I’m not in the weeds on the numbers here but it doesn’t seem that off to me as it appears to also factor in respective talent levels (i.e., the Mets are more likely to play better because they have better players). Yes, I think I know what joke comes next there. I see the FanGraphs odds have Padres at only 99.4% for making the playoffs.

Fangraphs details here: https://www.fangraphs.com/standings/playoff-odds/about (They say it’s 20,000 simulations).

FanGraphs playoff odds: Mets 86.2 Arizona 9.5 Cincinnati 3.1 Giants 1.7 St. Louis 0.2 And for fun, their current World Series champs odds: Dodgers 14.4 Mariners 13.0 Phillies 11.1 Yankees 10.9 Blue Jays 10.8 Brewers 9.8 Tigers 7.7 Mets 6.6 Padres 4.7 Red Sox 3.6 Cubs 3.5 Astros 3.1

Benjamin Grimm wrote: I wonder how that's going to work? Does Holmes get four innings and he's out, no matter how well he's doing? Or does Manaea come in whenever Holmes starts to falter, whether in the third or the sixth? Holmes seems to be on an unofficial 75-pitches, 5 inning limit. So Manaea knows he needs to be ready around that time — and earlier if Holmes' pitch count is up. If Holmes struggles suddenly, then they might use a short reliever (a Garrett or Stanek) to give Manaea enough time to warm up.

Multiple sources have reported that the Mets intend to use Manaea to piggyback with Holmes tonight. And, that on Sunday against Washington, it will be Manaea starting with Holmes as the piggyback.

Strength of schedule is a major factor in those odds. Arizona has 3 games against the Giants, but then the Dodgers, Phillies, and Padres — all of whom will make the playoffs. The Dodgers/Phillies have not yet and probably will not have determined who between them will get a first round bye and the #2 seed. Arizona’s postseason odds are at 5% currently. Cincinnati has 3 in St. Louis, 4 against the Cubs, 3 against the Pirates, and 3 in Milwaukee. They’re also the furthest away in the standings at 2.5 games back. Now, there’s a chance Milwaukee might not have anything to play for (Brewers are currently +3.5 over Toronto for best record in MLB), but if they have a first round bye (a near certainty) they’re also unlikely to be resting starters that final weekend as they have the long layoff coming. The Giants have the 3 in Arizona and then 4 in LA. They finish with 3 against St Louis and 3 against Colorado. Not surprisingly, they have the highest odds among contenders at 9.1% The Mets, of course, have the Cubs and Padres but also the Marlins and Nationals. It’s about time the Mets actually take care of business against a Marlins team with nothing to play for at the end of a season.

Is 20% a “very good chance”? FanGraphs has the Mets as 80.6% chance of making the postseason.

I’m not sure we agree on the definition of “fraud.” The Mets got better than expected results out of Canning this year before a freak/non-pitching injury. Senga was excellent before getting hurt with, again, a freak/non-pitching injury. He’s been awful since and maybe there’s no connection but the timing is surprisingly coincidental if not. Holmes has had diminishing results as his inning count goes up. Big shock, we all saw this coming. Why he hasn’t been transitioned to a reliever already is a failure of strategy but overall he was a serviceable back-of-rotation starter. Manaea is the worrisome one. Was his excellent half season the outlier? Is he just not healthy?

Cincinnati and San Francisco both lost. Arizona won. + 0.5 on SF (Mets have tiebreaker) + 1.5 on CIN (CIN has tiebreaker) + 2.0 on ARZ (tiebreaker TBD)

Sacramento beat Cincinnati. Bottom 10, Dodgers and Giants were tied 1-1, Giants had a runner on third with one out. Dodgers appear to get a strikeout of Jung Ho Lee on a caught foul tip. Umpire asks to see the ball, looks at it and calls it foul/no strikeout. Dodgers don't protest. Replays show catcher caught it and should have been a strikeout. Lee walks on the next pitch. Dodgers walk the next guy to load the bases. Giants then hit the walk off grand slam.

Edgy MD wrote: We may get a Brazzy/Alonso fight. That was really ugly. Brazoban was wrong to be late but that seemed deliberate and possibly unprofessional by Pete.

We’ve seen some of that before, although not this year. There was a game last year against the Cubs, the Mets lost 1-0, controversial play at the plate and Mendoza says afterwards the umps got it wrong, it cost us the game. Not some mealy-mouthed equivocation about how they’re all close calls, etc.

A lot of mixed feelings with this return tonight. There aren't a lot of (maybe none) star players who left the Mets not because they wanted to get paid more than the Mets were offering or because of a falling out with management — but just because they didn't want to be on the Mets anymore. The years of dominance won't ever be forgotten but at the end of the day, he didn't want to be in New York, and while I respect the choice, I can't help but feel a slight disrespect. Here's hoping for the traditional “deGrom start” tonight. Great performance by Jacob but his team supports him with zero runs (or at least one fewer than he alllows).

Mets are going to lose the DH for the rest of the game.

Suero called up for now. Also Alvarez activated and Senger back to Syracuse.

I’d give him 53.

Lefty Specialist wrote: Something to consider is that the Giants have the tiebreaker, having won 4 of 6 from the Mets this year. I think you have that backwards. The Mets took 4 of 6 (they swept the series in SF) and thus have that tiebreaker.

None of Diaz, Rogers, Soto, Helsley, Raley, Garrett, or even Stanek are “Quadruple-A” pitchers. I think there’s a reasonable case to be made that the Mets were unlucky and/or unwise in the trades they made for relievers. But no need to misrepresent the issue.

It was the top of the Tigers order coming up, with Keith (lefty), Torres (righty), Carpenter (lefty) and Greene (lefty) due up. Seems like a situation for Raley.

This is a dumb start time for the game. Tigers: are in the middle of a homestand. Off day tomorrow. Mets: also an off-day tomorrow. Next game is Thursday in Cincinnati (minimal travel). No reason to force this game into the daytime.