Gwreck
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Everything posted by Gwreck
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Good call. 30 is his Baseball America ranking (not MLB).
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Williams is #30 overall.
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Does having better farm/development system make it more likely that top-ranked prospects turn out to be good players? Not sure. I get that it is more likely to have a higher quantity of top ranked prospects. It’s not like the Mets were the only ones who thought Alex Escobar or Delois Guerra were top prospects — they had top 50 overall rankings from Baseball America. They just didn’t turn out to be good MLB players. This is probably a research question for someone with more time than me but tracing prior prospect rankings to some major league stat (say, WAR) would be fascinating: what is the median WAR for a #10 prospect? Do some systems turn out prospects that more frequently turn into good players? Etc.
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As for the Cano/Diaz/Kelenic deal, it was a debacle because (a) if the Wilpons only had limited money to spend, taking on Cano’s contract was idiotic and ( acquiring 35 year old players coming off PED suspensions is so stupid that it makes me question the judgment of anyone involved in the decision.* Just seeing this in print makes me irate all these years later. The fact that the Wilpons could have actually this is baffling, even for them. I realize Van Wegenen has never worked again as a GM and that’s probably the right outcome if he actually believed this. ___ *It’s not exactly analogous — as the PED suspension was much further in the past vis a vis the acquisition, and he was 3 years younger at the time of the acquisition — but the 4 year deal for Marte after 2021 maybe should also have been avoided.
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I didn’t include Kelenic here because he didn’t wind up “hurting” the Mets by becoming a good major league player elsewhere. I was doing an exercise to evaluate the classic trade scenario, not unlike the Peralta deal: exchanging young, unproven talent for major-league ready players. Sometimes that young, unproven talent becomes pretty good. Most of the time not, and thus there only a few truly regrettable trades: prospect becomes good while Mets get little or no value.
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Over the last 40 years, I count only 3 seriously regrettable trades concerning the prospects lost: 1. Melvin Mora for Mike Bordick, 2000. Admittedly with some benefit of hindsight. 2. Scott Kazmir for Victor Zambrano, 2004. No hindsight required, it was dumb at the time. 3. Pete Crow-Armstrong for Javy Baez, 2021. (I’d guess I’d also consider the July 2002 deal for Reed/Middlebrooks that gave up Jason Bay). Whether the deals worked (Leiter, Piazza, Delgado, Cespedes, Lindor), didn’t work (Alomar, Cano), or worked but didn’t make a difference re: playoffs (Viola, Santana), the Mets weren’t burned on the prospects lost.
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This is probably worth a different thread but the number of former Mets prospects with meaningful 2025 time in the majors elsewhere is actually pretty small: Pete Crow-Armstrong, 6.0 WAR (Javy Baez) Simeon Woods-Richardson, 2.2 (Stroman) Jake Mangum, 1.1 (Jeff Brigham/Eleiser Hernandez) Andres Gimenez, 1.1 (Lindor) —- J.T. Ginn, 0.5 (Bassitt) Amed Rosario, 0.3 (Lindor) Butto, 0.0 in 21 games in SF (Rogers) Gilbert, -0.3 in 39 games in SF (Rogers) Jared Kelenic, -0.5 (Cano) Colin Holderman, -0.8 (Vogelbach) —- Endy Rodriguez (Lucchesi), -0.5 in limited time for Pittsburgh Rhylan Thomas (Stanek) had 10 PAs for Seattle Kenedy Corona (traded for Jake Marisnick in December 2019) had 4 PAs for Houston.
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Let us also talk about Freddy Peralta
Gwreck replied to Benjamin Grimm's topic in New York Mets Talk
This is a reasonable deployment of prospect capital. Williams is totally unproven and Sproat has a tiny sample size in the majors. Maybe they’d be on the roster and capable of making meaningful contributions in 2027 or 2028 but also maybe not. And as noted, this isn’t a gutting of the system, it’s a strategic deployment of assets. I wish that Skubal would have been available for these chips but this isn’t bad. -
No one is talking about Cody Bellinger
Gwreck replied to Benjamin Grimm's topic in New York Mets Talk
Lockout, not strike. Players aren’t going to be the ones forcing a labor stoppage. -
Couple of thoughts: I’d be substantially more excited with this lineup if Pete Alonso was at first and Polanco at DH. As constructed, it feels like the team is short one impact bat. I suppose Vientos playing like he did in the second half of 2024, or Robert playing like he did in 2023, or Semien finding the fountain of youth and playing like he did 3 years ago, or Alvarez breaking out for a full year and staying healthy could happen. As it stands, this looks like a lineup for an 85 win team. I could see Baty hitting sixth to break up the string of righties at the end. I also think Semien will hit higher in the lineup than Robert. Baty in left seems much more likely than Polanco in left but neither option is appealing at all. If Benge isn’t ready, then maybe another lefty bat is an option (Mike Tauchman as a free agent?). Jared Young may be a nice guy but should be DFAed. I guess Mauricio may make the roster but it’s hard to see much playing time for him without (a) Baty and Vientos being bad or ( injuries.
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The former. And that money may be better used on the starting rotation.
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I don’t think that’s what Baty is going to do. He can neither run nor play defense anywhere near the level of Acuna, nor does he have anywhere near the positional versatility. Now, Baty can hit, which Acuna (and Robert?) don’t really do very well, so I’m sure he’s got a role. But it’s not supplanting Acuna.
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Per Jeff Passan
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Yes, Beltran’s number should be retired, and he certainly should be elected to the Mets Hall of Fame as well.
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Jorge Polanco as an outfielder is…remarkable. Unlike first base, where he has exactly one professional play (not an inning, not even an out…it was just one play, a walk-off), Polano has no major league experience in the outfield at all. He played 11 games in the outfield in rookie ball in 2011 for his only professional experience there.
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He was good enough to hit behind Vladdy Jr., so…yes? Of course, I suppose there is an open question about the best way to structure the top of the lineup. One wonders about Soto leadoff with Lindor and Bichette following. Or Bichette leading off with Soto and then Lindor.
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Well, I sure hope it’s not Polanco. My take is that the Mets’ 26-man roster is currently short two outfielders, and at least one needs to come from outside the organization (the other might be Benge).
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I’m happy for Jorge to prove me wrong, but I have a much easier time seeing Baty or Bichette (players who have demonstrated actual defensive value in the field) at first rather than Polanco (who has…not).
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The way I see it, If Polanco is playing in the field more than to cover an occasional day off, something has gone seriously wrong.
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If I’m Stearns, I’m calling up the Tigers and offering Baty/Tong for the one year of Skubal.
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The owners want a salary cap. The players don’t. Who do you think a salary cap benefits most? It’s not a trick question.
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Any team could have paid Tucker that money.
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Going to look real stupid if they don’t sign him.
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Steve Cohen’s got jokes: “Let me know when you see smoke.”
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Let's talk about... Max Scherzer and Justin Verlander
Gwreck replied to Benjamin Grimm's topic in New York Mets Talk
If the Mets are looking for one-year starters, I’d have to think there are cheaper/younger options. Like an Alex Cobb, or a Zack Littell.
