Gwreck

Some of these decisions are pretty clear: Williams: Under contract, so not really any decision to be made unless the Mets wanted to eat tons of money and trade him at his lowest possible value. While his role in the 2027 bullpen is yet to be determined, he isn’t going anywhere. Myers: not yet arbitration eligible and will still have an option year in 2027. With a <$1M in salary obligation next year and flexibility, obviously should be retained. Senga: obviously very early but making him a reliever seems like a great idea. Under contract for 2027 at $14M and then a free agent. Will be on the team next year unless (a) he’s so bad as a reliever that the Mets give up and eat the money; or (b) he’s so good as a reliever that he regains value and is traded. Garrett and Megill: Will be tendered contracts as long as they’re healthy/recovering well. This decision was already telegraphed when the Mets extended contracts to both in 2026 despite clearly never going to pitch all year. Should be ~$5M (combined) to retain them for 2027, Everyone else would need to do quite a lot to justify remaining, in large part because there are 7 key prospects that need to be added to the 40-man roster this offseason to remain under Mets control: Jefferson Rojas (new #1 prospect; acquired in Holme/Taylor deal), Gary Gill Hill (acquired in Peralta deal), Zach Franklin (acquired in Brazoban deal), plus Clifford, Wenninger, Suero, and Reimer. A few 40-man roster spots will open because Stock, Pintaro, McDermott, and Weisenburger aren’t particularly likely to hold on them. But there’s still a crunch. If I had to currently rank the remaining relievers in order of likelihood of being on the Mets in 2027: Lavendar, Nunez, Duarte, Cionel Perez, Yan, Xzavion Curry, Hagenman, field

Cabrera’s was a +81% WPA. It’s among the very highest regular season Mets homers; I think we discussed that a couple years back when considering the Steve Henderson homer (+92% WPA and maybe the highest ever for a Mets homer). But none of that was postseason of course…

That’s tied for #14, 23% WPA. Tied the game but was only in the bottom of the 4th.

Comes in tied for #22, at 19% WPA. Clendenon’s homer cut the Orioles’ lead from 3-0 to 3-2 in the bottom of the 6th but wasn’t (by this measure) the highest leverage HR from the 1969 postseason. Also in our top 10 is another from 2024 and the highest leverage homer from 2006.

Highest-Leverage 1. Lenny Dykstra, 1986 NLCS Game 3 Walk-off, 73% WPA 2. Pete Alonso, 2024 NLWCS Game 3, T9/3-run homer while down 2 runs, 64% WPA 3. Edgardo Alfonzo, 1999 NLDS Game 1, T9/Grand Slam in tied game. 45% WPA 4t. Todd Pratt, 1999 NLDS Game 4 Walk-off, 42% WPA 4t. Benny Agbayani, 2000 NLDS Game 3 Walk-off, 42% WPA 6. Francisco Lindor, 2024 NLDS Game 4, B6, grand slam while down 1-0, 35% WPA 7. 8. Darryl Strawberry, 1986 NLCS Game 3, 3-run game-tying homer in B6, 31% WPA —- Al Weis is 13 at 24% WPA. Knight is tied for 16 at 22% WPA. Lowest-Leverage

They did now Highest-Leverage 1. Lenny Dykstra, 1986 NLCS Game 3 Walk-off, 73% WPA 2. Pete Alonso, 2024 NLWCS Game 3, T9/3-run homer while down 2 runs, 64% WPA 3. 4t. Todd Pratt, 1999 NLDS Game 4 Walk-off, 42% WPA 4t. Benny Agbayani, 2000 NLDS Game 3 Walk-off, 42% WPA 6. Francisco Lindor, 2024 NLDS Game 4, B6, grand slam in 0-0 game, 35% WPA 7. 8. Darryl Strawberry, 1986 NLCS Game 3, 3-run game-tying homer in B6, 31% WPA Lowest-Leverage

The Mets did not hit a homer in the Astrodome in the 1986 NLCS. The game 3 homer was off Knepper though.

Darryl hit a game-tying 3-run homer in the bottom of the 6th in Game 3 at Shea that ranks #8. I assume that’s what you wanted?

Highest-Leverage 1. Dykstra, 1986 NLCS Game 3 Walk-off 2. 3. 4t. Todd Pratt, 1999 NLDS Game 4 Walk-off 4t. Benny Agbayani, 2000 NLDS Game 3 Walk-off 6. 7. 8. Darryl Strawberry, 1986 NLCS Game 3, 3-run game-tying homer in B6 Lowest-Leverage

Ventura’s grand slam (of course we all know it was a grand slam) in Game 5 of the 1999 NLCS ranks #35 at 16% WPA. Some may have forgotten that the game was already tied at that point (Pratt worked out a bases-loaded walk, actually a higher-leverage play at +29% WPA). With bases loaded and one out, it was already pretty likely the Mets would win.

Lenny is #1. 73% WPA. The only Mets postseason walk-off homer while trailing.

Using the stat Win Probability Added, what are the 10 most impactful Mets postseason homers of all time? Ok, that might be easy. We’ll still take answers though. If you want a real challenge: what are the 10 least impactful Mets postseason homers?

There are some good things about this team and a week like this is a reminder that maybe they really aren’t quite as bad as it seemed earlier in the year. Maybe all it will take in the offseason is a 1B, 2B, two high-level SPs and a couple high-level relievers.

I’m ready to make Baty the everyday second baseman and nail Semien to the bench

Baty isn’t their competition for a roster spot. Pache and Arias are.

I can’t think of a better time to give the ghost fork a try at closer.

While I am not a professional in player development, it’s still not at all clear to me why Pache is occupying this roster spot instead of Morabito or Mauricio or even Clifford.

He has better not get another start. Not when there are real potential members of next year’s squad to get experience.

Why stop at 12? 45 in a row is fine with me

With no particular animus towards Stock, it’s frustrating that the Mets don’t have someone else who can be starting this game who might actually be on the team in 2027 (and thus would benefit from getting some low-pressure major league reps). Whither Tobias Myers? Or maybe it’s time to give Wenninger a try?

Would be wild if Williams ends up being the worst of the offseason moves.

By a couple of days. Raley and Senga both were on the 2023 opening day roster; Raley debuted in the first game of the season, Senga in the fifth.

50, but it will drop lower the minute he jumps for a non-strikeout that’s hit into play. The jumping-when-it-was-a-foul-ball-and-not-a-strikeout is a huge red flag. Celebration is fine (and really, quite fun) but he was also clearly too focused on getting ready to celebrate. Get the strikeout first, sir.

Nobody wants that contract.

In some sense I understand it, this Lindor/Soto stuff is not really worth dignifying anyway, and it’s maddening that it gets so much airtime.