Show Me Shohei O(h)tani

[MFS62]

Great hitter, great pitcher.
Babe Ruth or Clint Hartung*?
Or something in between?

Later
* = Clint: https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/h/hartucl01.shtml

[Guest LeiterWagnerFasterStrongr]

Benjamin Grimm wrote: Mets may pursue Japanese two-way star Shohei Otani Intrigued by his star power, and emboldened by new rules that will leave him within their financial reach, the Mets are weighing a pursuit of two-way Japanese phenom Shohei Otani, multiple sources told Newsday.

Bullspit.

I mean, you could also overlay for Otani and take the penalty, no?

[Ceetar]

LeiterWagnerFasterStrongr wrote: I mean, you could also overlay for Otani and take the penalty, no?

no.

[A Boy Named Seo]

So in the end the difference maker will prob not be that one team had $2M bonus dollars to offer instead of another team's $500K. It'll be some shady nod/wink extension agreement ahead of time.

I think we should be that shady team.

-Rostering him fixes the short bench problem if the Mets choose to carry that extra pitcher.
-Every 4th game there is no hole in the lineup.
-For interleague games, we have an awesome DH.

deGrom threw 201 IP last year and got 77 plate appearances. You'd rarely (never?) have to PH for Otani so he could prob get another 25 or 30 plate appearances right there just because you could still let him hit in the 6th even if you weren't gonna let him pitch the 7th. And if he never started a game for us in the outfield and we only used him as a pinch hitter, as a DH in the 8 interleague away games, and on days he pitched, you could still easily get 300 PA for him, no?

That plus 150 innings or more of hopefully very, very good pitching? And he's 23?!? Sneak some shady shit, Mets!

[Ceetar]

Whether or not he can be posted is apparently still up in the air and the players association supposedly has set a hard deadline of Monday to agree on the posting rules.

This is for what the Japanese team gets out of it, not Otani.


Actually I might have this backwards.

[Frayed Knot]

No, that's correct, the posting fee goes to the NPL team.



And just to add to the whole bonus money thing, the Mariners just dealt away a 24 y/o pitching prospect to the ChiSox in exchange for an unspecified amount of Int'l Bonus cap money which, given
Seattle's history with Japanese players, certainly implies that this deal was made with Otoni in mind.

[Ceetar]

yes, but the lack of agreement is about Otani's compensation, not necessarily the posting fee.

All these rules we've been discussing might actually be altered or for naught.

[Frayed Knot]

Unable to reach an agreement prior to their self-imposed Monday deadline, the MLBPA granted themselves a 24 hour extension in order to try to come up with an acceptable posting arrangement for Ohtani.
The new deadline is 8 PM Tuesday and that will remain permanent ... unless it's not.


The Yanx, meanwhile, just traded with Jeter's Marlins for additional int'l bonus money.

[nymr83]

the real scandal is right there. the Marlins have just become the Yankees private farm system, like that guy who has his girlfriend or little brother in your fantasy league that only trades with him

[seawolf17]

Nymr83 wrote: the real scandal is right there. the Marlins have just become the Yankees private farm system, like that guy who has his girlfriend or little brother in your fantasy league that only trades with him

BREAKING: Marlins trade Giancarlo Stanton, Dee Gordon, and Marcell Ozuna and $300 million to the Yankees for the desiccated corpse of Brett Gardner.

[Frayed Knot]

Well the Marlins did receive players for this money exchange -- Garrett Cooper and Caleb Smith (both of whom have played in the majors) go from NY to Miami while A-ball pitcher Mike King* plus the
funds go the other way -- so it's tough to call it a scandal unless you have reason to believe that the swap was intentionally unequal which, among other things, implies that Jeter is out to ruin his own
investment in favor of the team he no longer has a connection to.



* 22 y/o former 12th round draft pick

[Ceetar]

[tweet:8se2h5cm]https://twitter.com/mccoveychron/status/932768758891868160[/tweet:8se2h5cm]

[Centerfield]

And if he is undermining the Marlins all the best to him. One less competitor in our division.

[Lefty Specialist]

seawolf17 wrote: BREAKING: Marlins trade Giancarlo Stanton, Dee Gordon, and Marcell Ozuna and $300 million to the Yankees for the desiccated corpse of Brett Gardner.

Immediately followed by dozens of calls to the FAN by Yankee fans complaining that they overpaid,

[nymr83]

http://www.espn.com/mlb/story/_/id/21508043/mlb-players-association-agree-new-posting-system-shohei-ohtani

according to this, a new system (which is one more year of the current system) was agreed to, but needs the sign-off of all 30 clubs - if i'm a club without max bonus money I would VETO this shit and take my chances with Ohtani waiting til next year when I too could pay him.

[Ceetar]

Nymr83 wrote: http://www.espn.com/mlb/story/_/id/21508043/mlb-players-association-agree-new-posting-system-shohei-ohtani according to this, a new system (which is one more year of the current system) was agreed to, but needs the sign-off of all 30 clubs - if i'm a club without max bonus money I would VETO this shit and take my chances with Ohtani waiting til next year when I too could pay him.

A. the extension was already agreed to, it just needed union approval, so that can't really be vetoed.

B. pool money may not even matter at all

C. Even if pool money does matter and you could max out next year, so would a billion other clubs. The deciding factors for Ohtani will likely be something else, and if you don't have it this year, 5 more million next year won't do it.

D. It seems unlikely Ohtani would post next year, only one year removed from unrestricted free agency.

[smg58]

So what exactly needs to be done? Am I correct in thinking that there's a limit to how much can be spent on international signings, and that the posting fee would count towards this limit? In that case, the winner will be the team who thinks that Otani is worth sacrificing all the money they have available and missing out on anybody from anywhere else. Unless multiple teams go all in, in which case, then what? How much say does Otani actually get?

[Benjamin Grimm]

As I understand it, it's Ohtani's decision to make. Once he selects a team to sign with, that team will send a $20 million payment to Japan.

Some teams can offer him more money to sign (as a bonus) but his contract will be at the major league minimum. The buzz is that Ohtani cares more about opportunity than dollars (or yen) and won't necessarily sign with the team with the most money to offer from its bonus pool. However, the Yankees are at or near the top, and that, along with their (unfortunate and misguided) international appeal seems to make them the favorite.

My hope is that he'll meet with Mickey Calloway and be swayed by Mickey's promise of undying love and affection.

[Centerfield]

I hope Sandy doesn't make the mistake of speaking to him in Street Japanese.

[Edgy MD]

There's a great story told by (I think) Bill Lee about legendary USC coach Rod Dedeaux, where freshman Dave Kingman was throwing batting practice to the varsity players. He was the hardest thrower on the team, but one got away from him and he hit one of his teammates.

Dedeaux flipped out and told Kingman to get the hell off the field, but after leaving the mound, Kong got in line with the hitters. A few batters later, he appears at the plate and hits the first offering 450 feet and the second further than that. He then just tossed the bat aside and started walking away.

"Where the hell you going?!" Dedeaux yelled, and the misunderstood, awkward giant shrugged and said "You told me to get off your field, so I'm going. I just wanted to get a few swings before I left."

And Dedeaux was all "Hold on, Son! Let's TALK about this!"

I find myself alternately hoping that Ohtani is nothing like Kingman and hoping that he's everything like Kingman.

[Ceetar]

and we know virtually nothing, maybe actually nothing, about Ohtani's priorities.

There's some thought he doesn't want to DH 3 times a week between starts, as that might be too much. But maybe that's bunk and he's fine with it. or maybe he's fine with it and it DOES become too much of a work load and hurts his numbers.


I still think the NL actually makes the most sense, so that he gets his 100 PA as a pitcher. He can DH and pinch hit in the interim which will provide him regular almost daily AB and doesn't actually displace anyone. an AL team has to figure out a part time DH thing, and who's the part time guy otherwise? or do you just rotate and have no real DH but is that a disadvantage?

[Frayed Knot]

smg58 wrote: Am I correct in thinking that there's a limit to how much can be spent on international signings, and that the posting fee would count towards this limit?

An overall limit on international pre-FA signings, yes, and because of his age Ohtani is considered that rather than a full-fledged FA a la the Matsui boys or Cubans of a certain age, etc.
But the posting fee is separate from that. As Ben says, that money goes from MLB club to NPL club and is for a fixed amount.

How much say does Otani actually get?

Whatever signing bonus he can wrangle out of the club he chooses plus minimum pay (550 K or whatever it is now).
Think of him as if he's a just-drafted player. Teams in the draft (first 10 rounds anyway) have a set total amount to spend which they can divide up any which way and for int'l players they also have
a wad of cash to spend how they choose. But because the int'l 'window' to sign started July 1st, many teams, the Mets included, have already spent much of it so have little left over.
The Rangers have the most, some $3.5 million, others have less than 100K

[Centerfield]

A few guys on the internets are saying Dodgers now. Imagine if the Dodgers get Ohtani and Stanton? Holy crap.

[Ceetar]

Centerfield wrote: A few guys on the internets are saying Dodgers now. Imagine if the Dodgers get Ohtani and Stanton? Holy crap.

literally listen to no one. There's pretty much zero info out there on what Ohtani actually wants, including to play the field, how much he expects/wants to hit, does he want big city or small, what type of lifestyle, is he looking to be the center of attention/#1 star or blend in?

etc. Some teams have literally been scouting him, though to what extent they've formed a relationship with him is unknown, since 2012 or so.

I found some interviews where he says he doesn't like walking down the streets in town and being accosted/known/famous. But maybe he's grown out of that by now. But does that mean he'd rather play in NYC where it's much easier to blend in on the streets because most people don't watch baseball anyway, or a smaller city where more people will know him but fewer will hassle him with the same intensity?

This includes marketing. People push the idea of him being able to sell himself to Toyota for millions as part of the selling points, but is he actually looking to be that level of star?

[A Boy Named Seo]

Pretty good article here on the challenges Ohtani would face being a legit 2-way player.

Assuming the Mets did submit a pitch, I would cut off a limb to see it.

[nymr83]

The added challenge, is that he bats left handed meaning his pitching arm is sticking out there to get hit by pitches as a batter - a scary proposition for a team relying on his arm but using him as a part time hitter.

[Edgy MD]

So does Syndergaard.

I'm sure there are pitchers who have had their careers damaged by their exposed wing getting hit by a pitch, but I sure can't think of one. Can you?

I think there are bad scenarios which are easily imaginable, and so those are the ones we focus on preventing, instead of the ones that are statistically more likely to occur or statistically more likely to do the most damage.

[nymr83]

Would we let Sydergaard play the outfield or even DH if he were our best option? I'm not sure. Because you are right that the statistical likelihood doeant factor into decision making.

Lets pretend that Syndergaard would be worth half a win over the season if we used him as our #1 pinch hitter instead of whoever would get those ABs instead. But, if he gets hurt doing it, Jeff Wilpon fires you. Would you do it? Because unfortunately that is the "real" math I suspect they are doing in making these decisions.

[Benjamin Grimm]

Well, pitchers do pinch-hit and pinch-run. But Syndergaard is a good example. Would the Mets ever consider using him as a DH in an American League game? Maybe. We have a manager right now who's pretty much a blank slate at this point.

[Edgy MD]

I'd totally DH him. I'd probably use him as the #1 pinch hitter, too if he really was the best option.

It's probably more true that the grind of pitching makes him a bad option to play the field the next day or two, more than the notion that the hitting interrupts his pitching. But when we're just talking about swinging the bat, there isn't as much downside if he's good. If he's with an AL team, bench him the day after his starts and DH him the next three days.

There's also talk of limiting his starts to one per week (the Japanese standard), and so having more days to let the guy hit. But how you deploy him or don't deploy him all depends on how you assess him as either a hitter or a pitcher. Most reports suggests he's further along as a twirler, but different teams will assess that differently.

Obviously pitching is a higher risk enterprise as well. He may be a pitcher/bench player for a few years, but after his arm wears down, he could gear up his hitting reps.