Two choices the Mets need to make this winter

[Edgy MD]

Dom Smith will likely be the starter. I'm not banking on that though. Preston Wilson and Carlos Gomez and Scott Kazmir have certainly demonstrated that top prospects may make it though the minors as Mets and still get traded just as they've ripened on the vine. The team may feel like two young comers in the lineup is one too many.

[Centerfield]

John Cougar Lunchbucket wrote: There's no way I'm spending a big chunk of a limited budget on a closer.

That's fair. It's certainly not the only way to improve the team. Where would you spend the money? And are you ok with the budget being limited?

John Cougar Lunchbucket wrote: That's what Omar Minaya would do, solve last year's problems next year.

But isn't that what any GM should do? It's not like those bullpen problems will just go away. The Mets were 29th in bullpen ERA. And then they traded away their best reliever. Familia coming back will help. But Ramos is badly overrated. That alone isn't going to get it done.

Plus, I don't know that Minaya was as bad as we thought at the time. His regime has been more successful than Sandy's. And he left behind the cornerstones of our next World Series team.

John Cougar Lunchbucket wrote: How funny is it that two guys the Mets might be keen to pick up this year are Joe Smith and Jason Vargas. They were pissed away years ago in a stupid-ass hunt for relievers that of course was little more than a show of acknowledging that the bullpen sucked the year before.

Stupid Omar!

But yeah, trading young pitching is risky. Much easier to just sign relievers.

[Centerfield]

Edgy MD wrote: Dom Smith will likely be the starter. I'm not banking on that though. Preston Wilson and Carlos Gomez and Scott Kazmir have certainly demonstrated that top prospects may make it though the minors as Mets and still get traded just as they've ripened on the vine. The team may feel like two young comers in the lineup is one too many.

Lefty Specialist wrote: But this is doodling on the margins. This team needs a blockbuster, shake-em-all-up deal that I don't think Sandy's capable of. With a weak farm system (that wasn't really improved dramatically by all those fire sale trades last year), we're probably looking at another dreary season.

This type of move could really help. Smith has value. And could bring back a productive part. Opening up 1B would allow us to sign Hosmer, or even re-sign Duda. I just think that in order to really contend, the Mets have to be flexible and creative. Passing on the elite players because they don't fit is lazy.

We went out and got Piazza even though we had Hundley. Went to the World Series.

We went out and got Beltran even though we had Cameron. Went to the NLCS.

We went out and got Cespedes even though we had two corner OF's already. Went to the World Series.

I think you have to get elite players when they are available.

[Benjamin Grimm]

I agree. I hope that they're in on Hosmer.

[Ceetar]

Cespedes isn't in the same class, but I get your point.

This season that player is probably Darvish and/or Ohtani? J.D. Martinez maybe as a hitter. Lorenzo Cain perhaps, as the only CFer out there with a bat?

I like Carlos Santana more than Hosmer or Moustakas. But I dunno.

[Centerfield]

I'm not big on Moustakas either. But yeah, somebody.

If we get Joe Smith, Jason Vargas and Brandon Phillips, we're toast.

[Benjamin Grimm]

I know this means next to nothing, but John Harper has an article in the paper today where he predicts where each of his Top Twenty free agents will sign.

He has the Mets signing Jay Bruce (for years, $60 million), Eduardo Nunez (four years, $44 million) and Brandon Kintzler (two years, $25 million).

[Guest John Cougar Lunchbucket]

I actually do think the bullpen problems will go away; or at least won't be as ugly as last year, as long the guys stay healthy, because bullpens are inherently unpredictable and the best you can do is get a bunch of good arms and hope 2 or 3 of them step up.

Sandy acquired, I think, 11 guys who will be candidates to fill in behind Familia, Ramos and Blevins, not to mention potential returnees like Robles, Smokey, Sewald, none of whom were great but are going to have to be better to hold off whichever of the new guys rises just to have a job next year. Then there's whoever doesn;t make the starting rotation (Wheeler? Montero? Harvey!?!??) and more youngsters coming up like Molina or even Petserson. Not worried about the bullpen.

I'd be in favor of perhaps paying for a reliable guy like Joe Smith but not a 15 million guy who will have to slot in beneath Familia. They might not come in that scenario anyway, that's why "dual closers" are usually the result of trades (Ramos) and not FA signings alone.

As for where to spend the $$, some on a Joe Smith type; some on a reliable starter to push the lazy guys and serve as depth. I'd sooner trade/sign a #1 pitcher than a #1 bullpener. We also need a RH hitter who can play first or third base and a second baseman who can hit. I don;t care if we get these guys by trade or FA. I'll trade anyone on the team except for deGrom, Syndergaard or Rosario so I want to keep my mind open as to the offense.

[Guest 41Forever]

John Cougar Lunchbucket wrote: I actually do think the bullpen problems will go away; or at least won't be as ugly as last year, as long the guys stay healthy, because bullpens are inherently unpredictable and the best you can do is get a bunch of good arms and hope 2 or 3 of them step up. Sandy acquired, I think, 11 guys who will be candidates to fill in behind Familia, Ramos and Blevins, not to mention potential returnees like Robles, Smokey, Sewald, none of whom were great but are going to have to be better to hold off whichever of the new guys rises just to have a job next year. Then there's whoever doesn;t make the starting rotation (Wheeler? Montero? Harvey!?!??) and more youngsters coming up like Molina or even Petserson. Not worried about the bullpen. I'd be in favor of perhaps paying for a reliable guy like Joe Smith but not a 15 million guy who will have to slot in beneath Familia. They might not come in that scenario anyway, that's why "dual closers" are usually the result of trades (Ramos) and not FA signings alone. As for where to spend the $$, some on a Joe Smith type; some on a reliable starter to push the lazy guys and serve as depth. I'd sooner trade/sign a #1 pitcher than a #1 bullpener. We also need a RH hitter who can play first or third base and a second baseman who can hit. I don;t care if we get these guys by trade or FA. I'll trade anyone on the team except for deGrom, Syndergaard or Rosario so I want to keep my mind open as to the offense.

Sewald's a keeper! Our best reliever last season!

I'm wondering about the rotation, at least beyond Thor and deGrom. You have to figure that if the Mets are going to swing a big deal, it's going to involved a pitcher because I don't think they have much else to deal if Conforto and Rosario are untouchable. Harvey is probably unmovable until he can prove he is healthy. So you have Matz, Wheeler, Lugo, Gsellman -- I can see them parting with someone in that group as long as there is a dependable starter coming back.

[Ceetar]

well Matz and Lugo are curveball guys and Callaway is a curveball guy so it seems like they'll be given a shot at least.

[Edgy MD]

I agree with Bucket's post about the bullpen above. I'd supprot bring in a reputedly reliable vet for stability purposes, but I think getting quality of quantity is the idea. So many of the 2015 deadline deals were selling off AA and A+ arms that might have been the emergency responders this season. That was a talent gap in the system. Now the 2017 selloff largely reversed that pattern and filled in the high minors with a lot of reliev-y resources.

Offensively, where I think they failed in planning last year (apart from getting hurt and hurt) is that they had four starting corner outfielders in an outfield that had two corners. That seemed like a misallocation of resources to me*, even as injuries shaved off the redundncy. I like J.D. Martinez a lot, but now that the team is again down to two corner outfielders, spending big on Martinez seems to be again over-reinforcing an area that is a strength. But if the Mets don't think Conforto or Céspedes will be particularly healthy, that is less of a concern.

I've spent two seasons arguing that they Mets should target an on-base machine like Votto intead of the hitters whose value is wrapped up in slugging. That's been fruitless, but I'd sure like an infielder with a high OBP.

* This was partially the result of a couple of failed bets. When they picked up Bruce's option and a market didn't appear for him, and when Neil Walker accepted arbitration, the team's discretionary budget was largely and accidentally committed to two areas that weren't obvious needs.

[Centerfield]

Edgy MD wrote: I've spent two seasons arguing that they Mets should target an on-base machine like Votto intead of the hitters whose value is wrapped up in slugging. That's been fruitless, but I'd sure like an infielder with a high OBP.

Didn't you propose a Votto trade with Dominic Smith as the centerpiece? Mets take on the monster salary. I'd be all over that.

High OBP infielder who can leadoff and run a bit. That would be nice.

[Vic Sage]

[u:j76agjih]1st choice:[/u:j76agjih]
Cain (cf)
L.Lynn (Sp)
Moustakas (3b)
Reed (Rp)
Minor* (Rp)

[u:j76agjih]2nd choice:[/u:j76agjih]
C.Gomez (cf)
Cobb (Sp)
Frazier (3b)
Morrow (Rp)
McGee* (lrp)

[u:j76agjih]barely acceptable:[/u:j76agjih]
Maybin (Cf)
Hunter (Sp)
Nunez (3b)
Nicasio (Rp)
Watson* (lrp)

[u:j76agjih]if we're lucky:[/u:j76agjih]
Dyson (cf)
Vargas(Sp)
Reynolds (3b)
Neshek (rp)
Miley*(lRp)

[u:j76agjih]likely:[/u:j76agjih]
nobody
nobody
nobody
nobody
nobody*

Edited November 3, 2017 by Guest

[Edgy MD]

Centerfield wrote: Edgy MD wrote: Didn't you propose a Votto trade with Dominic Smith as the centerpiece? Mets take on the monster salary. I'd be all over that.

Yeah, it's just not as attractive as it was two years ago. Looks like last year's proposal was Duda, Smith, Molina, and Goeddel.

By the way, that's a great post LWFS ended that thread with.

[Centerfield]

Edgy MD wrote: Edgy MD wrote: Didn't you propose a Votto trade with Dominic Smith as the centerpiece? Mets take on the monster salary. I'd be all over that. Yeah, it's just not as attractive as it was two years ago. Looks like last year's proposal was Duda, Smith, Molina, and Goeddel. By the way, that's a great post LWFS ended that thread with.

So what's your winter 2018 proposal?

[Lefty Specialist]

Votto, ay caramba. He'll decline and that beached whale of a contract would be unmovable. I mean, he's getting $25 million when he's 40, six years from now.

Hosmer won't be cheap either. Someone's going to throw way too much money at him.

If you're going to overpay, get me Stanton. Of course it'll never happen for a million (or 295 million) reasons, but that's a game-changer.

[Edgy MD]

He's been predicted to decline through the last two years I've been his groupie, and he's only gotten better. And his skills are an old guy's skills, so I don't see them declining as much as others do as he becomes an actual old guy. Beyond that, $25 million six years from now — after Trout and Harper and Kershaw have made serious bank — won't be as much as it was six years ago. Talent costs munny, and he's got talent. The contract is not backloaded, and that's good.

So what's your winter 2018 proposal?

Wild-assed or realistic? I dunno. I'm philosophically against trading, but on the other hand, I think fans get caught up in doing their imaginary shopping to restrict themselves only to the free agent list, when there is a world of deals to be had, and so folks get overly fixated on a Shin-Soo Choo here or a Mike Moutakas there.

I'm very confused as to who can reasonably be expected to be 100% next season. But if Conforto is expected to be healthy than I regard highly an outfield of him and Céspedes on the corners and Nimmo and Lagares up the middle (if Céspedes is healthy too). The fifth outfielder would probably be someone like Aoki or maybe Hairston. Righthanded or a switchie, available to play center in a pinch. Best off the bench but with starting experience.

Then the team can shop for an infielder of great on-basiness (David Freese?) and an effective pitcher with high-ish innings totals and hopefully a healthy arm and mindset (Darvish?).

If they want to go after a big fish, that would be great, but I'd certainly want it to be a guy whose on-base tool is a significant asset. Votto? Trout? Altuve? I think they probably have the leverage to make a blockbuster acquisition, if the fit is right. I wouldn't want another corner outfielder. Altuve would be the best fit in the world for this team, but nothing less than the store would move him now. So, I'm not sure.

The Mets led the National League in home runs but were eleventh in OBP. Shopping for offense begins there.

Syndergaard, Evans, and Flexie for Altuve. How's that for wild-assed?

[Centerfield]

Oh. I meant what do you think it would take to get Votto. He had another stupid good year, but that's another year of his prime ticked off the ledger, and a year closer to his inevitable decline.

Does Smith, Gsellman, Peterson get it done?

[Mex17]

Centerfield wrote: Oh. I meant what do you think it would take to get Votto. He had another stupid good year, but that's another year of his prime ticked off the ledger, and a year closer to his inevitable decline. Does Smith, Gsellman, Peterson get it done?

I don't want to pay for the downside of somebody's else's franchise player.

[Edgy MD]

Yeah, but the same logic has kept any number of teams from getting the last two ineffable seasons. There be more in there. There's reason to believe there are.

I'd sure rather have Joey Votto at 35 than Dee Gordon at 30. He just had 7.5 bWAR at 33. I can't imagine more than a handful of firstbaseman have ever done that without drugs. Gehrig and Foxx, probably, but not many others. (Not that I have much of a clue whether Votto is using drugz.)

[ashie62]

Edgy MD wrote: He's been predicted to decline through the last two years I've been his groupie, and he's only gotten better. And his skills are an old guy's skills, so I don't see them declining as much as others do as he becomes an actual old guy. Beyond that, $25 million six years from now — after Trout and Harper and Kershaw have made serious bank — won't be as much as it was six years ago. Talent costs munny, and he's got talent. The contract is not backloaded, and that's good. So what's your winter 2018 proposal? Wild-assed or realistic? I dunno. I'm philosophically against trading, but on the other hand, I think fans get caught up in doing their imaginary shopping to restrict themselves only to the free agent list, when there is a world of deals to be had, and so folks get overly fixated on a Shin-Soo Choo here or a Mike Moutakas there. I'm very confused as to who can reasonably be expected to be 100% next season. But if Conforto is expected to be healthy than I regard highly an outfield of him and Céspedes on the corners and Nimmo and Lagares up the middle (if Céspedes is healthy too). The fifth outfielder would probably be someone like Aoki or maybe Hairston. Righthanded or a switchie, available to play center in a pinch. Best off the bench but with starting experience. Then the team can shop for an infielder of great on-basiness (David Freese?) and an effective pitcher with high-ish innings totals and hopefully a healthy arm and mindset (Darvish?). If they want to go after a big fish, that would be great, but I'd certainly want it to be a guy whose on-base tool is a significant asset. Votto? Trout? Altuve? I think they probably have the leverage to make a blockbuster acquisition, if the fit is right. I wouldn't want another corner outfielder. Altuve would be the best fit in the world for this team, but nothing less than the store would move him now. So, I'm not sure. The Mets led the National League in home runs but were eleventh in OBP. Shopping for offense begins there. Syndergaard, Evans, and Flexie for Altuve. How's that for wild-assed?

I do appreciate your interest in Altuve. You do realize you would have to add a jar of vaseline and a can of crisco for starters to seal this one.

[Edgy MD]

A handgun might also help. But that proposal was both Wild and Assed.

[batmagadanleadoff]

Centerfield wrote: Vic Sage wrote: they're not moving either Cespedes or Conforto to 3b, injury or no, and neither should they. Enough with playing guys totally out of position. Wait, so my scenario had the Mets spending about $750 million, and that's the part that was unrealistic? Lol. I would say there is a better chance Conforto learns to play an adequate 3B by catching the ball with his teeth and then punting it over to 1B than the Mets signing five top tier free agents in one winter.

Five top tier Mets free agent signings in one winter? I don't think the Mets signed five top tier in their prime free agents in their entire franchise history.

I'm struggling to think of anyone other than Beltran and Bonilla.

OE -- Cespedes. That's three.

[Centerfield]

It depends if you count re-signing your own guys. Cespedes was signed twice. Piazza once. I think Gooden?

But if you are talking about signing a top tier free agent from another team, no, they never do this. Beltran. Bonilla. That's really it.

And this speaks to why they don't win.

A big market team spends aggressively. They sign top tier free agents and field competitive teams consistently. That's why the Yankees and Dodgers and Red Sox and Giants are in the playoffs consistently.

Small market teams can't do this. So they rebuild. They scout aggressively, and after years of a rebuild, they have their chips fall in place and win. Astros. Cleveland. Kansas City.

The Mets follow neither of these plans. They feign contention year after year, never going the distance to go all in, but never committing to an all out rebuild. So you get years of mediocrity.

2018 will be another of those seasons. They have chips in place to be competitive. They should spend the money to build a championship level team. If they don't, they should rebuild. Instead, they will spend just enough money to be competitive if everything breaks the right way.

You can talk about injuries and all that crap. The fact is, the Mets have won 90 games exactly once in the last ten years. In 2015, they won 90 exactly. Every other year they win in the 70's or 80's. That is no accident.

They are not trying to build a championship team. They are not trying to sustain excellence. That's why this team has a history of losing.

[Guest 41Forever]

Sadly, I think Vince Coleman was of the top players on the market the year he was signed.

[Benjamin Grimm]

There was also Pedro Martinez. Does he count?

[MFS62]

41Forever wrote: Sadly, I think Vince Coleman was of the top players on the market the year he was signed.

Arguably, so was Jason Bay.
He was 31, and the year before had a .267-36-119 year in Boston.

Later

[ashie62]

Krod and Oliver Perez?

[Centerfield]

Yeah, I’d be inclined to say none of those qualify. Pedro was a big name but clearly in decline. Jason Bay is the quintessential Mets free agent. Not elite, and signed past his prime.

Was too young to remember Vince Coleman, but I doubt he was in the MVP discussion before signing.

[batmagadanleadoff]

Only the Al Harazin Mets could've though that Coleman was an elite player. He never was. As a rookie base-stealing sensation, Coleman sucked all the attention away from the rest of his teammates --- a real shame because Coleman was probably the worst of the '85 Cards starting eight.