Two choices the Mets need to make this winter

[Centerfield]

Edgy MD wrote: Well, since 1988, if that's really where we're measuring from, the Mets have typically had a top-ten payroll. I know that's cold comfort.

Not at all!

It shows that they can do it. Another $20 million or so lands them comfortably in the top 10. And $60 million came off the books this year. Even with arbitration raises, that could allow us to get two of Darvish, Wade Davis, JD Martinez, or Hosmer. And you still might have enough leftover to get your Lorenzo Cain.

[Edgy MD]

According to baseball-reference, they not only can do it, but they have done it (been among the top 10 payrolls) each of the last two seasons.

[Guest LeiterWagnerFasterStrongr]

I mean, you guys are yelling about the wrong lack of spending.

You know what the real common thread is between the Dodgers and Cubs and Yankees? They're spending a crap-ton and loading their talent stock... with international players. We're spending there, but they're SPENDING there, sanctions be fanned. (Also, in player development, period.)

[Mex17]

Edgy MD wrote: They need at least one outfielder at some level. And my yes is tempered by the idea that C.C. Sabathia is going to sign with the Mets out os solidarity with Joe Girardi. He's going to sign with the Mets if they offer $100 more than another team.

I meant the Sabathia thing more in the sense that he might not automatically go back to the Yankees by rote moreso than saying that he is specifically going to sign with the Mets out of spite, so I am putting him on my list for that reason.

Aoki, Granderson, Austin Jackson, Daniel Nava, and Ben Revere are outfielders at some level, they can get one of them. I buried this idea in a longer post a few days ago, but at some point (and this point is now), they need to determine something with regard to Lagares because that $9 million guaranteed payday in 2019 is coming whether you like it or not. They have to see of he can play regularly for them or, alternatively, they need to create a trade market for him. Both of those require that he plays in 2018.

So, say Harper and Metsblog are both right and the have about $40 million to spend. . .

-$15 million for a closer
-$12 million for a starting pitcher
-$13 million to be split between an outfielder from the above list and a veteran backup infielder such as Reyes, Kendrick, or Yunel Escobar.

You have improved the 2018 team and you are still set up for the 2019 Hot Stove where there is potential for bigger splashes.

[Edgy MD]

I'm still saying no on the closer. That money is better funnelled toward the Darvish fund.

[Centerfield]

Edgy MD wrote: According to baseball-reference, they not only can do it, but they have done it (been among the top 10 payrolls) each of the last two seasons.

All of the sites I've seen say otherwise.

https://www.cbssports.com/mlb/news/heres-every-mlb-teams-opening-day-payroll-for-2017/

http://www.spotrac.com/mlb/payroll/2017/

https://www.forbes.com/sites/maurybrown/2017/04/02/heres-the-2017-opening-day-payrolls-for-all-30-mlb-teams-total-tops-4-billion/2/#5fb59d185a78

http://www.stevetheump.com/Payrolls.htm

[Centerfield]

Edgy MD wrote: I'm still saying no on the closer. That money is better funnelled toward the Darvish fund.

I'd be ok with this, especially since signing Darvish would allow you to move Gsellman, or Lugo, or Wheeler to the pen, where he might turn into Wade Davis.

I just think it's more likely that the Mets go 4 years for Davis, than 6-7 for Darvish.

[Ceetar]

Centerfield wrote: Edgy MD wrote: I'm still saying no on the closer. That money is better funnelled toward the Darvish fund. I'd be ok with this, especially since signing Darvish would allow you to move Gsellman, or Lugo, or Wheeler to the pen, where he might turn into Wade Davis. I just think it's more likely that the Mets go 4 years for Davis, than 6-7 for Darvish.

I hope not. Even if Darvish was garbage for the last 3 of those 6 years, he'd still likely provide more value than Davis even if goes back to being amazing and his BB% stops it's climb.

[Centerfield]

Yeah, at the end of the day, I think the Mets need front-line talent. If it's at starting pitcher, you'll get no arguments from me.

For all the bullpenning going on, the team with the weakest bullpen just won the World Series. So there's that.

[Vic Sage]

Mex17 wrote: Edgy MD wrote: They need at least one outfielder at some level. And my yes is tempered by the idea that C.C. Sabathia is going to sign with the Mets out os solidarity with Joe Girardi. He's going to sign with the Mets if they offer $100 more than another team. I meant the Sabathia thing more in the sense that he might not automatically go back to the Yankees by rote moreso than saying that he is specifically going to sign with the Mets out of spite, so I am putting him on my list for that reason. Aoki, Granderson, Austin Jackson, Daniel Nava, and Ben Revere are outfielders at some level, they can get one of them. I buried this idea in a longer post a few days ago, but at some point (and this point is now), they need to determine something with regard to Lagares because that $9 million guaranteed payday in 2019 is coming whether you like it or not. They have to see of he can play regularly for them or, alternatively, they need to create a trade market for him. Both of those require that he plays in 2018. So, say Harper and Metsblog are both right and the have about $40 million to spend. . . -$15 million for a closer -$12 million for a starting pitcher -$13 million to be split between an outfielder from the above list and a veteran backup infielder such as Reyes, Kendrick, or Yunel Escobar. You have improved the 2018 team and you are still set up for the 2019 Hot Stove where there is potential for bigger splashes.

I disagree with just about everything you wrote.

>"they need to determine something with regard to Lagares because that $9 million guaranteed payday in 2019 is coming whether you like it or not. They have to see of he can play regularly for them or, alternatively, they need to create a trade market for him."

They've been giving Lagares every opportunity to show he's an everyday player, ever since signing him to that stupid deal, and all he's shown is that (a) he still can't hit righties, and ( he can't stay healthy. At best, Lagares has proven that he's a grossly overpaid platoon player and late-inning defensive replacement. There's nothing more to learn about him. It's not like he's some still-developing kid; he'll be 29 before next season starts. He is exactly what we've seen. And that's not a starting player in this era of run inflation. Everybody in a lineup now has to carry a bat; nobody can be carried solely for defense.

>"-$15 million for a closer"

spending big money for another closer is an inefficient allocation of resources. Bullpens are generally grown, not bought, and closers are notoriously inconsistent. I'd rather we spent half of this on a reliable set up guy, like Reed.

> "-$12 million for a starting pitcher"

I don't think we can get a solid SP for that, but maybe we can get a #5 guy.

>$13 million to be split between an outfielder from the above list and a veteran backup infielder such as Reyes, Kendrick, or Yunel Escobar."

Between Cabrera and Flores, we have quite enough backup infielders. What we don't have are starters. Assuming one of them starts at either 2b or 3b, we need a starter at the other position. And the notion that you can get one AND a starting caliber CF is questionable. I'm willing to live with a Lagares/Nimmo platoon for next year, but another OFer is necessary, and that doesn't include any of the awful players you listed. At the least, we're going to need 1 starter and 1 backup at the CF and 2b/3b positions and that's going to cost way more than $13m.

[Centerfield]

I'd like for the media to ask the question, why do the Mets only have $40 million to spend?

[Benjamin Grimm]

I'd like to think that that's not even true, but I realize that it might be.

[Centerfield]

Again, the only source of all of this "reducing payroll" seems to be that offhand comment made by Sandy in September, where he was typically non-committal.

Then they cite to each subsequent articles as "multiple reports". So lazy.

So let me rephrase, first, find out if that's true. And if that's true, then find out why that's the case.

Madoff was in 2008! Nine years ago!

[Ceetar]

Sandy will never be clear about that, no matter what the answer is, and it's certainly not something you want out there anyway, as it may tip your hand in negotiations.

You'll get something along the lines of 'depends on what the going rate is for the players we feel are the best fit' and 'we have to look at not just this year, but the next few years too, when it comes to building and budgeting"

[Centerfield]

Right. So I'm not sure why all the beat writers can be so sure the budget is going down.

Sandy says stuff like this every year, and the payroll has gone up every year. So hopefully that can happen again.