Two choices the Mets need to make this winter

[Edgy MD]

If you have reservations about Conforto in centerfield long term, why push for the team to acquire another corner outfielder?

[Mex17]

Edgy MD wrote: If you have reservations about Conforto in centerfield long term, why push for the team to acquire another corner outfielder?

I'm not. I'm seeing where the conversation is going through and framing a point of view based upon that.

[Edgy MD]

I don't get that the conversation (here? elsewhere?) is coalescing around re-signing Jay Bruce. And I certainly don't see anybody else banging the drum for Dee Gordon.

[Benjamin Grimm]

Can you imagine the reaction if the outfielder the Mets sign is Bruce, and the infielder is Walker? The fan base would freak. It would look like the Mets were reassembling last year's 92-loss team.

[Mex17]

Edgy MD wrote: I don't get that the conversation (here? elsewhere?) is coalescing around re-signing Jay Bruce. And I certainly don't see anybody else banging the drum for Dee Gordon.

In this thread, the talk has been of the need to acquire two bats, one for the infield and one for the outfield, and one slugger and one contact hitter.

[Ceetar]

Mex17 wrote: Edgy MD wrote: I don't get that the conversation (here? elsewhere?) is coalescing around re-signing Jay Bruce. And I certainly don't see anybody else banging the drum for Dee Gordon. In this thread, the talk has been of the need to acquire two bats, one for the infield and one for the outfield, and one slugger and one contact hitter.

I'd prefer good players though, and neither of those qualify.

[seawolf17]

Ceetar wrote: Mex17 wrote: Edgy MD wrote: I don't get that the conversation (here? elsewhere?) is coalescing around re-signing Jay Bruce. And I certainly don't see anybody else banging the drum for Dee Gordon. In this thread, the talk has been of the need to acquire two bats, one for the infield and one for the outfield, and one slugger and one contact hitter. I'd prefer good players though, and neither of those qualify.

Bruce was .254/.324/.508 with 36 HR, and Walker was .265/.362/.439 with 14 HR. Neither one is a world-beater, but you could do a LOT worse, especially considering they're both in their early 30s. I would be okay with either or both returning.

I have minimal interest in Gordon.

[Centerfield]

seawolf17 wrote: Ceetar wrote: Mex17 wrote: Edgy MD wrote: I don't get that the conversation (here? elsewhere?) is coalescing around re-signing Jay Bruce. And I certainly don't see anybody else banging the drum for Dee Gordon. In this thread, the talk has been of the need to acquire two bats, one for the infield and one for the outfield, and one slugger and one contact hitter. I'd prefer good players though, and neither of those qualify. Bruce was .254/.324/.508 with 36 HR, and Walker was .265/.362/.439 with 14 HR. Neither one is a world-beater, but you could do a LOT worse, especially considering they're both in their early 30s. I would be okay with either or both returning. I have minimal interest in Gordon.

And the thing is, the Mets are pretty unlikely to do much better. JD Martinez? Would be nice, but what are the chances?

[Benjamin Grimm]

What are the chances of JD Martinez? Hard to say. I don't think we can totally rule it out, because we don't know what their plans are or, really, what the budget is.

I'd call Martinez a maybe. Possibly a faint maybe, but not a no. At least not yet.

[Centerfield]

Is it Scott Boras that makes the grocery store aisle comments about the Mets? I guess we'll find out early if we are shopping in the steaks section or the clearance aisle.

[Lefty Specialist]

Centerfield wrote: Is it Scott Boras that makes the grocery store aisle comments about the Mets? I guess we'll find out early if we are shopping in the steaks section or the clearance aisle.

[Vic Sage]

Mex17 wrote: Vic Sage wrote: Cf or Rf (with Conforto at the other spot) So are we dismissing out of hand the very possibility of Lagares' defense preventing runs scored against as an asset that might be comparable or perhaps preferable to going out and getting another "big bat" for the outfield?

yes, i'm dismissing it out of hand. Just as i did with Rey Ordonez. In a dead-ball era, you can carry a glove at an important defensive position, like Mark Belanger, because each run scored has a big impact on winning and losing. But now, in an era of run inflation, each run has less impact, so 1-run strategies are not helpful and big bats are necessary to keep up with the current style of play. And the need for a guy to run balls down in the alleys is also less important when the rate of balls in play going out of the park is increasing so much. Lagares is useful as a 4th OFer/defensive replacement/PHer against LHPs, but his bat is too big a drag on the lineup to play every day. He'll be paid like a starter next year, so he's a burden the Mets should get out from under, if at all possible (which i don't think it will be unless they eat some of his contract).

Edited November 2, 2017 by Guest

[Edgy MD]

I don't think having a Gold Glove-quality centerfielder (assuming that he indeed still is one) is a one-run strategy.

I certainly prefer him as a platoon player, but healthy, he has demonstrated he can be a three-win player based almost on his glove alone, and that's not nothing.

Whether it's a high-scoring or low-scoring era isn't really the issue. The era is only relevant in that we're in a high-strikeout era, which suggests fewer opportunities for defenders to make a difference.

[Centerfield]

Did you see the offensive firepower those World Series teams were churning out? 7-8 hitters with OPS's in the range of .850-900. The Cubs and Yankees were stacked too. We are lightyears away offensively.

A lineup that has Lagares, d'Arnaud, Rosario, Smith and the pitcher? Just give up now. Ces and Conforto are nice if healthy, but we drop off pretty precipitously after that.

[Benjamin Grimm]

Well, the good news is that we have a lot of pitchers with ERAs over 6.00. The key to 2018 will be getting more innings from them!

[Ceetar]

Centerfield wrote: Did you see the offensive firepower those World Series teams were churning out? 7-8 hitters with OPS's in the range of .850-900. The Cubs and Yankees were stacked too. We are lightyears away offensively. A lineup that has Lagares, d'Arnaud, Rosario, Smith and the pitcher? Just give up now. Ces and Conforto are nice if healthy, but we drop off pretty precipitously after that.

the Astros were light years better than everyone offensively.

The Dodgers had a wRC+ of 104. the Mets were at 100. that means the Dodgers were merely 4% better.

The Nats were also at 100, which actually means we're operating from a rather neutral standpoint in terms of our competition.

[Lefty Specialist]

Benjamin Grimm wrote: Well, the good news is that we have a lot of pitchers with ERAs over 6.00. The key to 2018 will be getting more innings from them!

Oy. Hope Mickey Callaway stocked up on Zantac.

[Edgy MD]

I don't think the team is light years away offensively. They were seventh in the league in OPS+, despite missing much of their firepower for much of the season. They tied for the lead league in homers.

Bruce and Walker and Duda are gone from that group, so replacements will have to come. (Every team, of course, will have the pitcher in the lineup, and the Mets pitchers hit better than most.) It may be that Lageres may not still have it, or that he can't stay healthy, but his productivity in 2013 and 2014 was real. It was real when he was healthy this year also, it just wasn't as obvious because most of his value was tied up in his defense, but the metrics are there.

I really want Nimmo to see regular playing time, or incoming guys to be OBP-first guys, to complement the power. I'd be perfectly satisfied with a Nimmo/Lagares platoon between Conforto and Céspedes, assuming everyone is healthy.

But that's the rub. And for all I know, Conforto won't be at full strength any time soon. And if that's what the Mets expect, they certainly need to shop accordingly.

[Centerfield]

Ceetar wrote: Centerfield wrote: Did you see the offensive firepower those World Series teams were churning out? 7-8 hitters with OPS's in the range of .850-900. The Cubs and Yankees were stacked too. We are lightyears away offensively. A lineup that has Lagares, d'Arnaud, Rosario, Smith and the pitcher? Just give up now. Ces and Conforto are nice if healthy, but we drop off pretty precipitously after that. the Astros were light years better than everyone offensively. The Dodgers had a wRC+ of 104. the Mets were at 100. that means the Dodgers were merely 4% better. The Nats were also at 100, which actually means we're operating from a rather neutral standpoint in terms of our competition.

I don't know what this means.

I know that Washington scored 819 runs, and the Mets scored 735. So Washington scored 84 more runs than the Mets. This seems like a lot. I also know that a lot of the guys responsible for those 735 runs are gone. So that makes the gap even larger.

[Centerfield]

Edgy MD wrote: I don't think the team is light years away offensively. They were seventh in the league in OPS+, despite missing much of their firepower for much of the season. They tied for the lead league in homers. Bruce and Walker and Duda are gone from that group, so replacements will have to come. (Every team, of course, will have the pitcher in the lineup, and the Mets pitchers hit better than most.) It may be that Lageres may not still have it, or that he can't stay healthy, but his productivity in 2013 and 2014 was real. It was real when he was healthy this year also, it just wasn't as obvious because most of his value was tied up in his defense, but the metrics are there. I really want Nimmo to see regular playing time, or incoming guys to be OBP-first guys, to complement the power. I'd be perfectly satisfied with a Nimmo/Lagares platoon between Conforto and Céspedes, assuming everyone is healthy. But that's the rub. And for all I know, Conforto won't be at full strength any time soon. And if that's what the Mets expect, they certainly need to shop accordingly.

They were 19th in runs scored, 14th in OPS. So either they were unlucky, or unclutch, or couldn't move runners over or something. But they were not close. I'd like high OBP to complement the power. But they traded away a lot of that power. So now we need that too.

If you go with Lagares, you are leaving 2B or C as places to find both OBP and power.

[Edgy MD]

I wasn't suggesting going with Lagares, so much as going with Nimmo and Lagares helping out against lefties and coming on for defense.

[Centerfield]

I'm rooting for Nimmo to be real too. In fact, I like what I see. Good OBP, pretty good looking swing, and I think the power will develop. But I don't think he's a centerfielder, and I don't think he will produce enough to warrant a corner position. So basically the guy is an unknown offensively and defensively.

Man. If only we could have had a month and a half of meaningless games where we could have tried him out in CF.

Anyway, my point is, you have to get some offense somewhere. The top 8 run scoring teams made the playoffs. The ten playoff teams were in the top 12 offensively. You have to score runs. The Mets were 19th, and much of that production came before the selloff. You have to make up that difference somehow.

JD Martinez would do a lot to make up that ground. So would Eric Hosmer. Jay Bruce too, I guess. But none of these fit where we have holes. And I think the Mets will use this excuse to justify not pursuing the top flight talent. Our holes are CF, 3B, 2B and catcher. And frankly, there aren't great options out there. So I have no clue what Sandy Alderson will do. Unlike the pitching, there are no clear answers.

If we go with a platoon of Nimmo and Lagares, CF will be a position where realistically, the best we can hope for is mid .700's in OPS. Same for shortstop, first base and catcher. Combine that with our pitcher, and that's more than half our lineup. If Conforto and Ces are the corner outfielders, that leaves 2B and 3B for your offensive upgrades. I don't see who we could get that meets our needs.

When you project this lineup against the two teams we were just watching, it's light years away.

[ashie62]

A straight Nimmo/Lagares platoon works for me.

It's going to take a recovery of the pitching staff to contend in 2018. In that event, we have a cheap effective combo in CF.

[Centerfield]

And for the record, I'm not saying that the Mets should just automatically go with Smith at 1B. I just think that this is what they will do. It's easy. It's the Joe Bloggs answer. And creativity is not really Sandy's thing.

I would love if the Mets could be bold enough to say, "You know what, Eric Hosmer is exactly what this team needs. ", then go out and get him. (and really, he hits for average, gets on base, hits for power, plays great D, he really is exactly what this team needs) But we won't. We won't even think to do this. Instead, in a year where we are supposed to contend, we will give first base to the fat guy who hit .198.

And no, if you sign Eric Hosmer, it doesn't mean you're "giving up" on Smith. He was a top 50 prospect last year. I'm sure he has trade value. And if there are no takers? Put him back at AAA. The kid is 22. It won't kill him to get another season under his belt. Where maybe he can work on his conditioning a bit.

He can be dealt at the deadline, or next winter, or be insurance in the event Hosmer gets hurt.

[Centerfield]

Ashie62 wrote: A straight Nimmo/Lagares platoon works for me. It's going to take a recovery of the pitching staff to contend in 2018. In that event, we have a cheap effective combo in CF.

Sure. No one is disputing that the pitching has to be better. But so does the offense. Did you not see the offense we just saw in this post-season? Did you read my post above about the playoff teams all having top offenses?

http://www.espn.com/mlb/stats/team/_/stat/batting/seasontype/2

Take a look at this list. Teams ranked by run scoring. Does it strike you that those teams at the top have something in common?

Sometimes I wonder if we watch the same games. I'm watching HR's flying out of the park. Leadoff hitters mashing 400 foot bombs. Scores of 13-12 against great pitchers. Guys up and down the lineup posting OPS's in the high 800's. And we think Lagares/Nimmo, d'Arnaud, Rosario, Smith, Cabrera is going to get it done?

We would have had no chance. If the Mets had been magically placed in the World Series, we would have gotten smoked. Except for deGrom starts we would have lost 25-0 against these teams. And in the deGrom starts we would have lost those too, but the score would have been closer until the bullpen came in.

[Guest 41Forever]

Centerfield wrote: A straight Nimmo/Lagares platoon works for me. It's going to take a recovery of the pitching staff to contend in 2018. In that event, we have a cheap effective combo in CF. Sure. No one is disputing that the pitching has to be better. But so does the offense. Did you not see the offense we just saw in this post-season? Did you read my post above about the playoff teams all having top offenses? http://www.espn.com/mlb/stats/team/_/stat/batting/seasontype/2 Take a look at this list. Teams ranked by run scoring. Does it strike you that those teams at the top have something in common? Sometimes I wonder if we watch the same games. I'm watching HR's flying out of the park. Leadoff hitters mashing 400 foot bombs. Scores of 13-12 against great pitchers. Guys up and down the lineup posting OPS's in the high 800's. And we think Lagares/Nimmo, d'Arnaud, Rosario, Smith, Cabrera is going to get it done? We would have had no chance. If the Mets had been magically placed in the World Series, we would have gotten smoked. Except for deGrom starts we would have lost 25-0 against these teams. And in the deGrom starts we would have lost those too, but the score would have been closer until the bullpen came in.

The Mets team we had at the end of the season would have been smoked. The Mets team we expected to have before being decimated by injuries would have fared well, I think.

[Centerfield]

Sure. If we had Duda and Bruce and Walker and Granderson and Addison Reed. It’s closer. Though to be honest, we probably still lose.

But they’re all gone now. How do you make that up?

[Benjamin Grimm]

I think it's probably too much to expect for one offseason. For the Mets to go from 92 losses to 92 wins seems like a very steep climb. We'll see what happens. Maybe they'll surprise me. But I expect to go into 2018 with lower expectations than I did in 2017.

[Guest John Cougar Lunchbucket]

There's no way I'm spending a big chunk of a limited budget on a closer. That's what Omar Minaya would do, solve last year's problems next year.

How funny is it that two guys the Mets might be keen to pick up this year are Joe Smith and Jason Vargas. They were pissed away years ago in a stupid-ass hunt for relievers that of course was little more than a show of acknowledging that the bullpen sucked the year before.

[Lefty Specialist]

Well, the team they have right now would forfeit. They have two starting pitchers and a bunch of question marks.

Dom Smith, whether we like it or not, will be the starter and will be given all year to prove himself. Same for Rosario.

I expect that Cabrera's option will be picked up and he'll be penciled in at third.

They simply have to pick up another outfielder because you can't have a Cespedes/Nimmo/Lagares outfield play every day until Conforto comes back. I like Nimmo, but he's a 4th outfielder.

And they need a real second baseman. I like Dee Gordon more than most. He fills a need. He's not perfect but he's better than Floriveracchini, and he'll be available.

But this is doodling on the margins. This team needs a blockbuster, shake-em-all-up deal that I don't think Sandy's capable of. With a weak farm system (that wasn't really improved dramatically by all those fire sale trades last year), we're probably looking at another dreary season.