2016 Ranking Project

[Frayed Knot]

btw, if you do make adjustments to your list, re-print the list or at least point out what you changed. If you just re-edit the earlier post I probably won't see it.

[Vic Sage]

Vic Sage is high on (well we won't know for sure until the lab comes back with the results) but also Lagares, Salas, Henderson, Kelly; low on Loney, Wright, Conforto, Flores, Reyes

how can i be high on my rankings for Salas and Kelly when i didn't even include them? This makes me question your record-keeping. I DEMAND A RECOUNT!

[Centerfield]

My list:

30. SYNDERGAARD
29. CESPEDES
28. CABRERA
27. DEGROM
26. COLON
25. WALKER
24. MATZ
23. GRANDERSON
22. REED
21. FAMILIA
20. LUGO
19. GSELLMAN
18. FLORES
17. ROBLES
16. REYES
15. BLEVINS
14. CONFORTO
13. TJ RIVERA
12. R. RIVERA
11. JOHNSON
10. NIMMO
9. LAGARES
8. d'ARNAUD
7. REYNOLDS
6. DE AZA
5. HARVEY
4. DUDA
3. SALAS
2. SMOKER
1. LONEY

[Guest John Cougar Lunchbucket]

Ceetar wrote: John Cougar Lunchbucket wrote: Walker over cespedes? need to think about that one. Seems like Cespedes might be getting dinged a bit too much for the CF play when it was more of a desperation thing.

There's just no fucking way Neil Walker was the best player on the Mets last year. I can't see him any higher than 3rd and even that's a stretch.

[Frayed Knot]

Vic Sage wrote: Vic Sage is high on (well we won't know for sure until the lab comes back with the results) but also Lagares, Salas, Henderson, Kelly; low on Loney, Wright, Conforto, Flores, Reyes how can i be high on my rankings for Salas and Kelly when i didn't even include them? This makes me question your record-keeping. I DEMAND A RECOUNT!

Yeah, not sure what happened there, maybe I was the one who was high. I seemed to have mis-copied only your list and even then only part of it - so at least the whole thing wasn't a mess.

As it stands now, you're low on Loney, and then less so on Flores, Reyes, and d'Arnaud. Higher than most others on Lagares & Henderson.

[Frayed Knot]

John Cougar Lunchbucket wrote: John Cougar Lunchbucket wrote: Walker over cespedes? need to think about that one. Seems like Cespedes might be getting dinged a bit too much for the CF play when it was more of a desperation thing. There's just no fucking way Neil Walker was the best player on the Mets last year. I can't see him any higher than 3rd and even that's a stretch.

To me he's neck and neck with Grandy for 3rd best offensive player. Then he drops from there depending on how many pitchers you want to slot ahead of him.

[TransMonk]

30. Noah Syndergaard
29. Jacob deGrom
28. Bartolo Colon
27. Yoenis Cespedes
26. Addison Reed
25. Asdrubal Cabrera
24. Steven Matz
23. Curtis Granderson
22. Neil Walker
21. Jeurys Familia
20. Seth Lugo
19. Robert Gsellman
18. Kelly Johnson
17. Jerry Blevins
16. Hansel Robles
15. Juan Lagares
14. T.J. Rivera
13. Michael Conforto
12. Jose Reyes
11. Rene Rivera
10. Wilmer Flores
9. Jim Henderson
8. Lucas Duda
7. Brandon Nimmo
6. Matt Reynolds
5. Ty Kelly
4. Fernando Salas
3. Alejandro De Aza
2. Jay Bruce
1. Matt Harvey

[Ceetar]

John Cougar Lunchbucket wrote: John Cougar Lunchbucket wrote: Walker over cespedes? need to think about that one. Seems like Cespedes might be getting dinged a bit too much for the CF play when it was more of a desperation thing. There's just no fucking way Neil Walker was the best player on the Mets last year. I can't see him any higher than 3rd and even that's a stretch.

It's mostly just fWAR. Cespedes actively hurt the team in center while Neil added much needed value at second defensively. The value the steadiness of Walker and Cabrera up the middle for most of the season provided especially compared to Murphy-Flores last year is often understated.

I probably should swap Cespedes up, just because he was that much better a hitter (not that Walker was a slouch), but I don't think it's a slam dunk or anything.

[Benjamin Grimm]

How is Schaefer doing against the general consensus?

[Frayed Knot]

Schaefer was significantly lower than our emerging consensus (haven't added TMonk's vote yet) on Gsellman (9 slots lower), also Blevins (11), TJ Rivera (7), and Lagres (5). But our PotG votes were higher on Loney (+5), Harvey (9), DeAza (7), and Verrett (11)

Not really sure what all that says. Schaefer tends to be a bit more erratic year by year than we as individuals are but I've never be able to suss out a particular pattern [low on relievers, too high on part-timers, etc.] to predict how it varies.

[Frayed Knot]

Revising my list:

30 - SYNDERGAARD
29 - CESPEDES
28 - CABRERA
27 - COLON
26 - deGROM
25 - GRANDERSON
24 - MATZ
23 - REED
22 - WALKER
21 - FAMILIA
20 - REYES
19 - FLORES
18 - LUGO
17 - GSELLMAN
16 - LONEY
15 - CONFORTO
14 - JOHNSON
13 - ROBLES
12 - R. RIVERA
11 - BLEVINS
10 - d'ARNAUD
9 - HARVEY
8 - TJ RIVERA
7 - WRIGHT
6 - DUDA
5 - BRUCE
4 - DE AZA
3 - SALAS
2 - HENDERSON
1 - VERRETT

[Frayed Knot]

Stuff from various lists that I'm having trouble seeing:

- Loney off, or at the very bottom of, several evaluations.
As I mentioned elsewhere, no other player was as wildly over the map as Loney - top half of some lists, not listed at all on several others. And while he was certainly a comedown from Duda, he was still the starting 1st baseman for four months and not a bad one (fair to below average maybe, but not terrible). 350 AB guys usually have to be pretty terrible to get left off entirely and it's certainly odd to see him and his 703 OPS behind Ty Kelly and even lower OPS w/just 58 ABs.

- Logan Verrett (5.20 ERA, 1.56 WHiP) ahead of Harvey (4.86, 1.47) in essentially the same number of IP. Henderson is well above Harvey on several lists as well. Yeah the Dark Knight was lousy and then out of the picture, but we shouldn't be grading on the curve here.

- Rene Rivera shutout and way behind d'Arnaud despite similar stats and much better defense. Maybe that one was accidental (JCL)?

- And, yeah, Neil Walker in 2nd place

[Ceetar]

Of 42 1B guys with at least 300 AB, Loney is 36th by fWAR and 34th by wRC+. he was a net negative. I did more to help the Mets win last year. They would've been better off playing Bruce there and not dealing with the outfield logjam. They would've been better off playing a broken-backed Duda there, and should've in the playoffs.

James Loney is indicative of everything that went wrong in 2016.

THEY SHOULD'VE PLAYED KELLY JOHNSON THERE.

Johnson was so much better than Loney. Maybe it was a lot of small sample stuff, but it was 201 PA to Loney's 366.

I'd put Thor on the list again as a batter ahead of Loney. I'd put Ruggiano ahead of him and he got like 4 games.

[Vic Sage]

yeah, that.

[Edgy MD]

Ceetar wrote: he was a net negative. I did more to help the Mets win last year.

I don't think that's what a negative WAR really means.

As much as I'm enchanted by fWAR on the offensive side, I don't think they really get defense right, philosophically, although if they did, it probably wouldn't help Loney much, and perhaps would be more likely to hurt him.

[Centerfield]

Frayed Knot wrote: - Loney off, or at the very bottom of, several evaluations. As I mentioned elsewhere, no other player was as wildly over the map as Loney - top half of some lists, not listed at all on several others. And while he was certainly a comedown from Duda, he was still the starting 1st baseman for four months and not a bad one (fair to below average maybe, but not terrible). 350 AB guys usually have to be pretty terrible to get left off entirely and it's certainly odd to see him and his 703 OPS behind Ty Kelly and even lower OPS w/just 58 ABs.

I was down on Loney, and was considering leaving him out altogether, but he just had so many AB's and he did hit 9 HR's. But in the end those HR's were really all he did (kinda symbolic of the whole offense in 2016). His OPS of .703 from a 1B is terrible. Like Ceetar said, KJ was the better choice there. He had a reputation of being hitter-ish, even if he didn't have a lot of power. That ended up not being the case at all.

But the biggest disappointment was his defense. I don't know that I have seen scouting reports be that wrong. Just complete head scratchers at times. Not know what balls to go for. Getting caught way off the bag. He played 1B like a coordinated guy who just converted from another position.

I probably am projecting some ill will on him since I wanted him out of the lineup down the stretch run (Play Bruce at 1B, start Conforto). And I realize that's not really his fault, but whatever. Bye Loney.

[Ceetar]

Edgy MD wrote: Ceetar wrote: he was a net negative. I did more to help the Mets win last year. I don't think that's what a negative WAR really means. As much as I'm enchanted by fWAR on the offensive side, I don't think they really get defense right, philosophically, although if they did, it probably wouldn't help Loney much, and perhaps would be more likely to hurt him.

Well, he gets knocked for the positional adjustment cause 1B is not quite evaluated properly as it applies to the whole field, but most seem to think he played worse than an average 1Bman anyway, so he's actually getting credit.

plus his wRC+ was puny and pathetic, on the offense side. 200th of 268 players with at least 300 AB. There were probably a dozen other guys on the scrap heap the Mets could've gotten instead of Loney that would've performed better. It ended up being a bad choice by Alderson. He was literally the R in WAR and still managed to underperform it.

[Edgy MD]

Who should he have gotten?

Getting replacement players who are better than replacement players is nice, but they aren't always in the shop when you come calling.

Perhaps the real sin was not having anybody better than Marc Krauss parked in Vegas.

[Ceetar]

Edgy MD wrote: Who should he have gotten? Getting replacement players who are better than replacement players is nice, but they aren't always in the shop when you come calling. Perhaps the real sin was not having anybody better than Marc Krauss parked in Vegas.

they're literally a dime a dozen.

Michael Morse?

There are probably a billion guys wallowing away in AAA that could've been add for cash considerations or something similar as well. They could've tried calling up the AAA scrub they were playing in Vegas. Krauss? I forget his name. It's a little foolhardy to assume all replacement guys are the same, though granted it can be equally foolhardy to just randomly plug a new guy in as soon as it looks like the last one failed. But hell, Loney was really bad and definitely not a top 30 2016 Met.

[seawolf17]

Why DID I put Verrett so high? Revised, knocking #15 Verrett off and adding Harvey in at 30.

1. Syndergaard
2. Cespedes
3. deGrom
4. Cabrera
5. Walker
6. Granderson
7. Reed
8. Colon
9. Matz
10. Conforto
11. Reyes
12. Flores
13. Familia
14. Loney
15. d'Arnaud
16. Blevins
17. Lugo
18. Gsellman
19. Robles
20. TJ Rivera
21. Henderson
22. Johnson
23. DeAza
24. R Rivera
25. Bruce
26. Duda
27. Wright
28. Lagares
29. Salas
30. Harvey

[Edgy MD]

Ceetar wrote: Edgy MD wrote: Who should he have gotten? Getting replacement players who are better than replacement players is nice, but they aren't always in the shop when you come calling. Perhaps the real sin was not having anybody better than Marc Krauss parked in Vegas. they're literally a dime a dozen. Michael Morse? There are probably a billion guys wallowing away in AAA that could've been add for cash considerations or something similar as well. They could've tried calling up the AAA scrub they were playing in Vegas. Krauss? I forget his name. It's a little foolhardy to assume all replacement guys are the same, though granted it can be equally foolhardy to just randomly plug a new guy in as soon as it looks like the last one failed. But hell, Loney was really bad and definitely not a top 30 2016 Met.

I'm not sure I agree with your definition of "literally." Or "billion."

Michael Morse was out of baseball most of last year. By the time Duda went down and it was clear it would take more than Campbell and Flores to fill the hole, Morse wouldn't have likely been a viable option. I suppose they could have grabbed him and given a few weeks to get his timing in the minors. But nobody touching him all season after he was DFA'd by the Pirates doesn't give me confidence that he was going to be a better addition to the Mets.

The real way to do better is to shop from a higher shelf, and get an active, productive big leaguer, but the Mets clearly weren't looking to be that aggressive.

[Benjamin Grimm]

I don't remember now...

At the time the Mets signed Loney, what was Duda's prognosis? Was there still hope that he'd be back earlier than it turned out?

[Frayed Knot]

Benjamin Grimm wrote: I don't remember now... At the time the Mets signed Loney, what was Duda's prognosis? Was there still hope that he'd be back earlier than it turned out?

It certainly wasn't known immediately that it would be essentially a season-long thing. And the real impetus for Loney came after Wright when down in addition to Duda which meant that Wilmer was no longer the first option.



On the subject of his ranking, I'm not trying to pull a Woody Allen here and claim that 90% of life is just showing up, but the idea of marking down Loney because you think that others who weren't actually on the team would have done better if they were isn't exactly the idea of this thing. These other maybe/possible names might have tallied more than 26 XBHs if given 300+ ABs but they weren't and so taking it out on Loney based on that reasoning is silly.
And while I certainly have no issue if he's slotted behind guys like Flores and Kelly Johnson, I'm just having a heard time seeing the logic in him either off lists entirely or at the very bottom in back of likes of Ty Kelly and Brandon Nimmo.

[Guest John Cougar Lunchbucket]

I don't know why Rene came in so much lower than Travis in my initial rankings, though as I noted everything under 16 on the list is a pick'em. To address it I'm moving them closer together.

I'm also making it unan. for Syndergaard (I think) and adding Cecchini.

30. Syndergaard
29. Cespedes
28. Cabrera
27. Granderson
26. deGrom
25. Colon
*
24. Walker
23. Reed
22. Matz
21. Familia
*
20. Flores
19. Reyes
18. Robles
17. Blevins
*
16. Conforto
15. Gsellman
14. Lugo
13. Loney
12. Harvey
11. Duda
10. Wright
9. Lagares
8. Bruce
7. d'Arnaud
6. TJ Rivera
5. RRivera
4. Johnson
3. DeAza
2. Kelly
1. Henderson
0. Reynolds
-1. Salas
-2. Nimmo
-3. Smoker
*
-4. Ynoa
-5. Goeddel
-6. Bastardo
-7. Plawecki
-8. Edgin
-9. Gilmartin
-10. Cecchini
-11. Ruggiano
-12. Campbell
-13. Monetro
-14. Niese

[Centerfield]

Frayed Knot wrote: On the subject of his ranking, I'm not trying to pull a Woody Allen here and claim that 90% of life is just showing up, but the idea of marking down Loney because you think that others who weren't actually on the team would have done better if they were isn't exactly the idea of this thing. These other maybe/possible names might have tallied more than 26 XBHs if given 300+ ABs but they weren't and so taking it out on Loney based on that reasoning is silly. And while I certainly have no issue if he's slotted behind guys like Flores and Kelly Johnson, I'm just having a heard time seeing the logic in him either off lists entirely or at the very bottom in back of likes of Ty Kelly and Brandon Nimmo.

Well, for me it was more that even guys that were on the team would have been more effective, but the point is well taken. I looked back at my list. While I don't have Ty Kelly, I ranked Nimmo as the 19th best, which seems kinda silly. And although I do think that the bad defense works against Loney, it's hard to justify ranking Nimmo, and Lagares, and d'Arnaud, and Reynolds and De Aza higher...especially when all of them failed to hit as well as Loney.

Yeah, I may have whiffed on Loney. I think I to re-work my list. Is there a deadline to this?

[Frayed Knot]

Well, for me it was more that even guys that were on the team would have been more effective

And, like I said, I think sticking him below the likes of Johnson, Flores, Conforto, and some others is perfectly justifiable. I just couldn't see off the list entirely or at the very bottom down below the guys who barely hit AND barely played.

Is there a deadline to this?

Midnight Jan 31 -- aka: one week from tonight -- sounds like as good a cut-off as any.

[Ceetar]

Frayed Knot wrote: Centerfield wrote: Well, for me it was more that even guys that were on the team would have been more effective And, like I said, I think sticking him below the likes of Johnson, Flores, Conforto, and some others is perfectly justifiable. I just couldn't see off the list entirely or at the very bottom down below the guys who barely hit AND barely played.

Barely hit and barely played is better than didn't hit and played. Thinking of the overall value of his total contribution. I'm not going to count those 26 XBH without docking him for the 340 non-XBH.

I just ran a list of Win Probability Added for 2016 Mets. Loney is 39th. Though he does bump up to 18th if I remove the pitchers (But that's sorta my point) All the guys below him except Bruce provided defensive value at least.

[Ceetar]

Revised: swapped Cespedes up above Walker. Moved d'Arnaud and Bruce down a bit more.

30 - Noah Syndergaard
29 - Yoenis Cespedes
28 - Neil Walker
27 - Jacob deGrom
26 - Asdrubal Cabrera
25 - Curtis Granderson
24 - Bartolo Colon
23 - Steven Matz
22 - Addison Reed
21 - Jeurys Familia
20 - Robert Gsellman
19 - Kelly Johnson
18 - Michael Conforto
17 - Jose Reyes
16 - Matt Harvey
15 - Seth Lugo
14 - Wilmer Flores
13 - Hansel Robles
12 - Juan Lagares
11 - David Wright
10 - Alejandro De Aza
09 - Jerry Blevins
08 - T.J. Rivera
07 - Lucas Duda
06 - Travis d'Arnaud
05 - Rene Rivera
04 - Brandon Nimmo
03 - Jay Bruce
02 - Fernando Salas
01 - Jim Henderson

[G-Fafif]

I considered Cabrera the day-in/day-out MVP of this crew, but Syndergaard's credentials, in a Player of the Year sense, are overwhelming. Somewhere in between is the indispensability of Cespedes. They are my unassailable Top Three, and Colon is No. 4 for sure. I suppose Familia and Reed could flip, but I'm still impressed at how many saves in a row -- whatever one thinks of saves -- Jeurys strung together. Granderson, flaws notwithstanding, is one of the quiet success stories of recent Met history, in there almost every game, transcending his uninspiring batting average and playing inspiring defense, give or take a throw.

From No. 8 down to No. 30, I am struck by how many partial seasons were strung together to create a Wild Card entry. If I wasn't sure Collins isn't a great manager, I might think Collins is a great manager.

30 Syndergaard
29 Cespedes
28 Cabrera
27 Colon
26 Familia
25 Reed
24 Granderson
23 deGrom
22 Walker
21 Flores
20 Matz
19 R. Rivera
18 Reyes
17 Robles
16 Blevins
15 Loney
14 Conforto
13 Lugo
12 Gsellman
11 Harvey
10 Johnson
9 T. Rivera
8 Wright
7 Duda
6 d'Arnaud
5 Lagares
4 Bruce
3 Reynolds
2 Verrett
1 Henderson

[Frayed Knot]

Ah, thanks for the reminder as my self-imposed deadline snuck up on me.
So assuming that others forgot as well, let's say Thursday night (Feb 2) at midnight for any late entries and/or changes and revisions.