Hall of Fame ballot

[Vic Sage]

excellent. Now we can chastise with impunity.

[nymr83]

SteveJRogers wrote: LeiterWagnerFasterStrongr wrote: Nymr83 wrote: who are the Pudge nay-sayers? he is an all-time great catcher - top 5 at the position! Superlative defender, and an excellent offensive player for a decade. I don't get how he isn't first-ballot, honestly. He does seem to have more "substantial" PED "taint" than Piazza did (named in Canseco book, teammate of users in Texas, deflated and power numbers "decreased" with the advent of testing, etc).

Canseco said so? who gives a fuck

his teammates used? so did everyone else's!

deflated numbers didnt just coincide with testing, they coincided with being a fucking catcher who crouched behind the plate every day - all the good catchers hit that decline

[MFS62]

But the Hall did itself proud this time. Very Proud.
http://sports.yahoo.com/news/claire-smith-is-first-woman-to-win-hall-of-fames-award-for-baseball-writers-173632969.html

Later

[nymr83]

Vic Sage wrote: excellent. Now we can chastise with impunity.

this is an excellent change - would love to see some of the dumber ballots getting publicly shredded to pieces

[Guest Mets Guy in Michigan]

Nymr83 wrote: Nymr83 wrote: who are the Pudge nay-sayers? he is an all-time great catcher - top 5 at the position! Superlative defender, and an excellent offensive player for a decade. I don't get how he isn't first-ballot, honestly. He does seem to have more "substantial" PED "taint" than Piazza did (named in Canseco book, teammate of users in Texas, deflated and power numbers "decreased" with the advent of testing, etc). Canseco said so? who gives a fuck his teammates used? so did everyone else's! deflated numbers didnt just coincide with testing, they coincided with being a fucking catcher who crouched behind the plate every day - all the good catchers hit that decline

There was a lot of talk here about the year he came to spring training looking considerably less bulked up.

http://www.nytimes.com/2005/05/25/sports/baseball/the-tigers-rodriguez-is-now-a-svelte-pudge.html?_r=0

If the writers made Piazza wait because one writer accused him of bacne, then you have to figure that they'll make Rodriguez wait a couple years, too. Plus, he was a Yankee.

[stevejrogers]

Mets Guy in Michigan wrote: If the writers made Piazza wait because one writer accused him of bacne, then you have to figure that they'll make Rodriguez wait a couple years, too. Plus, he was a Yankee.

Part of me also wonders if a good number of the writers who left Piazza off their ballot over the course of his four years on the ballot, did so more wait for Rodriguez to go in before Piazza.

Stupid reasoning, based on Piazza retiring 4 seasons before Rodriguez did (who many probably would place over Piazza when talking all-time great backstops), but there have been stranger reasons not to vote for someone!

[Guest LeiterWagnerFasterStrongr]

Interesting argument for the neglected one of Canada's Favorite HoF Candidates here from Fangraphs' Paul Swydan.

Walker hit well at Coors Field because he was capable of hitting well everywhere. This shows up in the stats that strip out the bias inherent with ballparks, wRC+ chief among them. For their careers, Walker was a better hitter than Guerrero by wRC+, 140 to 136. Whether you want to give full credit to these ballpark adjustments, they’re not so wrong as to be completely discounted. The bottom line is that there is no argument that Walker was a far inferior hitter to Guerrero... Even at the tail end of Walker’s career, when he had endured eight surgeries and it hurt for him to turn his head to the left, Walker still had a better arm than Guerrero... The notion that Walker was less durable doesn’t exactly square with what we see in the innings played column. Walker played in the field for far longer than did Guerrero, who started 508 games at DH — more than three seasons’ worth. The reason why is clear when you look at the error totals. Guerrero’s 125 errors are eye-popping. During his career, Guerrero was charged with 46 more errors than any other outfielder. In the Integrated Era (1947-present), only eight outfielders have been charged with more errors. To say he was mistake-prone is a gigantic understatement.

[Frayed Knot]

I thought during his career that the praise of Vlad's OF defense was often vastly over-blown.
It seemed to me that so many were impressed by the strength of his arm that they simply ignored how often he either air-mailed his throws way off the intended mark or that he was seemingly so eager to set-up his next throw to unleash that he occasionally forgot the part about having to actually field the ball first.

[Edgy MD]

There's a bias in those error totals, too, though. Guys with weaponized arms get more errors than guys without, and often ones they don't particularly deserve.

Best way to avoid errors: Field and throw as little as possible.

[nymr83]

Edgy MD wrote: There's a bias in those error totals, too, though. Guys with weaponized arms get more errors than guys without, and often ones they don't particularly deserve. Best way to avoid errors: Field and throw as little as possible.

Also known as "The Jeter Plan"

[Valadius]

For those who haven't been following this, Ryan Thibodaux's annual ballot tracker is here: http://bit.ly/bbhof2017

Big storylines this year:

-Bagwell and Raines appear set for induction
-Pudge has a decent shot at first-ballot induction
-Vlad and Hoffman are on the bubble
-Bonds and Clemens picking up significant support in light of Bud Selig's induction; seems only a matter of time before they get in
-Edgar Martinez making a big move, possibly as voters assess his candidacy vs. David Ortiz
-Mussina and Larry Walker are picking up votes
-Manny will debut far short of induction; Posada may not survive the first ballot
-Time has run out on Lee Smith
-Schilling is hemorrhaging support

[Frayed Knot]

How's Hillary doing ... still comfortably ahead?

[nymr83]

Frayed Knot wrote: How's Hillary doing ... still comfortably ahead?

Thread over, FK wins.

[Benjamin Grimm]

If Bonds and Clemens get in, I'll never go to Cooperstown again. (I say this knowing that even if they don't get in, I'll probably never go to Cooperstown again anyway.)

[Ceetar]

Benjamin Grimm wrote: If Bonds and Clemens get in, I'll never go to Cooperstown again. (I say this knowing that even if they don't get in, I'll probably never go to Cooperstown again anyway.)

I kinda feel the opposite, I've lost a lot of desire to go UNTIL they're inducted.

[Lefty Specialist]

I went this year for the Piazza induction. I'll go for the next Met induction. Which may be a problem because I'm not seeing anything coming up until I'm kinda old.

[Benjamin Grimm]

I'm not sure what Beltran's chances are. After that, maybe Cespedes? (Typing this with my fingers crossed, which isn't easy!)

[Edgy MD]

Beltran, Kent, Hodges, Wagner, Johnson. Keep rootin'!

Upcoming Ballot Additions

2018: Liván Hernandez, Jason Isringhausen
2019: Darren Oliver
2020: Bobby Abreu
2021: Michael Cuddyer

Totally gonna keep my fingers crossed for the next couple of years over that Darren Oliver candidacy.

[Guest Mets Guy in Michigan]

Benjamin Grimm wrote: If Bonds and Clemens get in, I'll never go to Cooperstown again. (I say this knowing that even if they don't get in, I'll probably never go to Cooperstown again anyway.)

The museum part is worth going to, even if you choose to ignore the plaque room. Lots of Mets stuff last time I was there.

[Benjamin Grimm]

I know, but I've been there three times and I only really enjoyed it the first two times. I think that my reverence for baseball has declined to a point where I'm no longer too stirred up by seeing a lot of old bats, shoes, and gloves.

[seawolf17]

Lefty Specialist wrote: I went this year for the Piazza induction. I'll go for the next Met induction. Which may be a problem because I'm not seeing anything coming up until I'm kinda old.

"You rang?"

(Sorry. I'll stop.)

[Guest 86-Dreamer]

i love that HOF tracker. Anyone else look to find a ballot that exactly matched theirs? No exact match for me - closest was Pat Caputo. he listed 9, including all of my selections except Vlad. Me, Caputo and someone named Bill Plunkett are the only ones that think both Larry Walker and Jeff Kent should be bronzed.

[nymr83]

Beltran - if you look at him as a Centerfielder, and he'll end his career having played more than half his games there and doing a good job of it, he's behind probably only Griffey in the last 40 years.

career, he is 65th on the bbref war list - the guys above him who arent in? Bonds, Arod, Pujols, Beltre, Chipper, Bagwell, Rose, Bill Dahlen, Whitaker, Thome, some scrub SS for the Yankees, Walker, Palmiero, and Bobby Grich

Steroids or other cheating aside, there is no argument about Bonds Arod Pujols Chipper Bagwell Rose Palmiero Beltre and the Yankee scrub SS.

Thome was a real defensive liability but i think hes in.

Dahlen played his last game in 1911, pretty hard to compare there.

Whitaker and Grich were both second basemen who were good for long enough but i'd argue never GREAT players, it probably didnt help that they both spent their entire careers in american league cities that nobody cared about and before the advent of interleague play and sports center and were off the ballot before the sabermetrics revolution could save them.

I think Beltran is A shoe-in.

[Guest LeiterWagnerFasterStrongr]

Beltran SHOULD be a shoe-in. Even with the advancements in defensive metrics and a younger electorate, though... it'll likely be trickier than you think.

[Edgy MD]

Even after bringing next to nothing the last two years, he's one of the all-time great post-season players. He's part of a very small class in that regard.

[Frayed Knot]

I have the suspicion that younger voters will see enough to appreciate Beltran's rare combination of OBA & power mixed with CF and base-running skills, but it may be that post-season history which gains him just enough support from the remaining 'old school' voters because I get the feeling there are a segment of those who otherwise don't view him as *Star* enough for Cooperstown.

[nymr83]

Edgy MD wrote: Even after bringing next to nothing the last two years, he's one of the all-time great post-season players. He's part of a very small class in that regard.

I didnt even think of that! and yeah, that is something that should help sway the old fogies.

unfortunately, i'll only ever remember one pitch Beltran saw in the postseason

[Edgy MD]

Cool Stat That's Kinda Hard to Contextualize but is not Unmeaningful: Carlos Beltran has never been caught stealing more than eight times in a season.

On his crazy run of greatness, when he came over to Houston for the last 90 games of 2004, he stole 28 bases without getting caught a single time.

[Frayed Knot]

An 86.4% career SB rate (better than Rickey, better than Raines, better than Cobb, Much better than Brock) is crazy good for a guy with 300+ total.
And if someone wants to argue it's a 'protected' number because he hasn't really attempted to steal since 2008 or so well that's part of the point, that once he sensed he was no longer going to be good enough at it to help his team he quit trying*, a point I'm afraid will get lost on those old-schoolers who still value 'counting stats' as more=better devoid of any context.

And, btw, Beltran's "next to nothing" last two years averaged out to two seasons of: 142 Games Played (134 Starts), 515 ABs, .286/.337/.493, 33.5 Doubles, 24 HRs, 80 RBI, 65 RS, 120 OPS+
Now that was about 1/4 as a DH and 3/4 as a mediocre (or worse) corner OF and not as the stud CF he once was, but when those are your 38 & 39 seasons you're not doing too badly.






* 2009-2016 in total = 37 of 49

[Edgy MD]

Frayed Knot wrote: And, btw, Beltran's "next to nothing" last two years averaged out to two seasons of: 142 Games Played (134 Starts), 515 ABs, .286/.337/.493, 33.5 Doubles, 24 HRs, 80 RBI, 65 RS, 120 OPS+

I wasn't particularly clear in my sentence construction, but I was referring to his post-seasons.