Bring Back Ces

[Centerfield]

Unless I missed it he hasn't opted out yet.

Maybe Sandy has been covertly working with him on an extension?

[Guest d'Kong76]

Maybe there is something going on, why wait until the very last minute
and on a Saturday? He has until 11:59 PM this evening.

[Centerfield]

I guess it doesn't make sense to throw away $49 million until you have to. Just in case he tears his ACL watching TV today or something.

But still. A girl can dream.

[Lefty Specialist]

Well, he opted out. Now the game is afoot.

[Edgy MD]

Well, we can take our money, not go to Mets games, not buy Mets' shit, and not subscribe to cable and internet packages, and donate that.

[Zvon]

Lefty Specialist wrote: Well, he opted out. Now the game is afoot.

[fimg=400]http://i.dailymail.co.uk/i/pix/2016/08/14/00/3732024B00000578-0-Jeremy_Brett_failed_to_make_the_shortlist_of_those_being_conside-m-52_1471130375465.jpg[/fimg]
And so it is. And now, we wait.

Jeremy Brett=best Holmes ever.

[ashie62]

Competition there will be.

http://www.rotoworld.com/headlines/mlb/520450/yoenis-cespedes-opts-out-of-mets-contract?ls=roto:NYM:topheadlines

[nymr83]

Ashie62 wrote: Analytics trumps common sense.

I think you are conflating 'common sense' with 'poor emotion-based decision making'

Cespedes is certainly a good player, but the Mets shouldn't pay him based on what he's done for them already. "Analytics" is very good thing - The Mets can look at players like him and project his numbers over the next X years (where X is the potential offer) and decide what those years are likely to be worth. The other available options, the state of the roster, etc certainly come into play but you need to establish what you believe to be a baseline of value first.

the fact that the Mets are in "win now" mode may also come into play - they may be willing to to eat some lower value years at the end of a multi-year deal in order to get the guy they feel they need now. but that decision needs to be made with the knowledge that that is what they are doing - not with the blind faith that every other player (who wasn't on steroids circa 1995-2005) has declined as they got older but this one won't.

[Centerfield]

It's important to remember he didn't really put up MVP-type numbers, and he wasn't particularly close. He was 53rd in fWar, for instance. Guys ahead of him included Odubel Herrera and Charlie Blackmon, Cesar Hernandez and D.J. LeMahieu.

Somehow missed this the first time around.

I don't know that it's important to remember that at all, in the context of the point I was making. In fact, I would go as far as to say it's unimportant. But if you must:

I think it would be nice to get him on the same type of structure this year. But there are a number of factors working against him: 1. Much weaker free agent class. 2. Now instead of just a half a season of MVP type numbers, he has [crossout]a season and a half[/crossout] followed it up with a full season of really fucking good, albeit not quite MVP numbers. 3. I bet a part of him feels like he's "earned" a commitment from the Mets. If the Mets don't offer it, I can see him taking it as a slight and leaving.

Better?

And like I said. My point remains the same.

I don't know what fWAR is, having just learned the new stats like WAR the past few years. I do know that WAR is a cumulative stat where one is negatively impacted for missing time and for playing out of position defensively.

I'm guessing fWAR doesn't adjust for the park seeing as you cite to two Phillies and two Rockies. I will also say that if fWAR is suggesting that Odubel Herrera is better than Yoenis Cespedes, then it is extremely limited in usefulness.

Ashie62 wrote: Analytics trumps common sense.

Yup.

[Centerfield]

Nymr83 wrote: Ashie62 wrote: Analytics trumps common sense. I think you are conflating 'common sense' with 'poor emotion-based decision making' Cespedes is certainly a good player, but the Mets shouldn't pay him based on what he's done for them already. "Analytics" is very good thing - The Mets can look at players like him and project his numbers over the next X years (where X is the potential offer) and decide what those years are likely to be worth. The other available options, the state of the roster, etc certainly come into play but you need to establish what you believe to be a baseline of value first. the fact that the Mets are in "win now" mode may also come into play - they may be willing to to eat some lower value years at the end of a multi-year deal in order to get the guy they feel they need now. but that decision needs to be made with the knowledge that that is what they are doing - not with the blind faith that every other player (who wasn't on steroids circa 1995-2005) has declined as they got older but this one won't.

I think that is exactly what the Mets are going to have to measure. Those crap years at the end of the contract. Whether they would be better off with Cespedes at 35 or Encarnacion at 37.

Or whether whatever they'd have to give up in what I would guess would be a competitive trade market (given the crappy FA market) would be worth it.

The Mets have their work cut out for them. Kinda the wrong year to be looking to upgrade a 26th ranked offense.

[Fman99]

I think fWar is this crazy ass metal band that wears goofy outfits and shit. I could be wrong, though, because in the context of OF performance, that doesn't make a ton of sense.

[Guest LeiterWagnerFasterStrongr]

The thing about this year's Cespedes performance is, it built on last year's offensive "aberration." Slightly higher wOBA, virtually the same isolated-power numbers, and a better walk rate (coupled with better plate selectivity), to boot. The defensive numbers only slipped because he was playing center (where, yeah, he ISN'T very good); if last year's numbers bear out, then he's still a great (and maybe still elite) left fielder... most likely for at least another 1-3 years.

Basically, he showed that 2015 wasn't an aberration, but a ripening.

[Edgy MD]

Centerfield wrote: I'm guessing fWAR doesn't adjust for the park seeing as you cite to two Phillies and two Rockies.

Of course it does.

And I'm pretty happy with my grasp of common sense.

LeiterWagnerFasterStrongr wrote: The defensive numbers only slipped because he was playing center (where, yeah, he ISN'T very good); if last year's numbers bear out, then he's still a great (and maybe still elite) left fielder... most likely for at least another 1-3 years.

They slipped also due to him playing 27 fewer games and being hurt pretty much the whole second half.

[Centerfield]

Like I said, I don't really see why you think the distinction is important. The topic was the likelihood of a club offering a multi-year deal to Cespedes. If you think the distinction between "MVP-like" numbers and "All-Star level" numbers would prevent a club from making an offer then I'd love to hear why. The point was that a year later, his second half 2015 looks less like an aberration, and more like an awakening.

Honestly, I don't see a club saying "He followed up his MVP second half 2015 with only All-Star level production this year? Sure, I know he's the best all-around player on the market, and the youngest, but if he's not even in the MVP discussion, fuck that guy. Go get me Trumbo!"

[Edgy MD]

Centerfield wrote: Like I said, I don't really see why you think the distinction is important.

Because you made a statement, and I thought the facts didn't support it.

Does that mean an offer shouldn't be made? Of course not. Please don't try and play me into a position I haven't taken. It means, quite obviously, that his offer shouldn't particularly be based on a factor of "MVP-type numbers" when they weren't.

[Centerfield]

Then I think you and I disagree on the word "important". If it doesn't change the conclusion, specifically, that multi-year offers will be made, then it isn't "important".

Allow me to illustrate.

I think Jimmy is a bad guy. He is a bad guy because (1) he is engaged in a crime ring. (2) He is racist and homophobic. (3) I saw him punch his wife in the face and chest last Tuesday.

I think it is important to remember that Jimmy did not punch his wife in the chest, only in the face.

Ok. You're right. Jimmy only punched her face, which I guess, is slightly better. The fact of the matter is Jimmy is still a pretty bad fucking guy.

In our situation, "MVP-like" versus "All-Star-level" is similarly irrelevant. You're right. He was all-star level. Not MVP level. He's still likely getting a shit-ton of offers.

The distinction you make, which has no effect on the main conclusion, is "niggling" perhaps. Maybe "irritating" or "annoying". It is certainly not "important".

It is only "important" if your objective is "Point out every mistake Centerfield makes, no matter how insignificant, or irrelevant to his main idea."

[Edgy MD]

Well, if you're annoyed, I'm sorry. I think it's relevant, and certainly not personal.

Is there any way to acceptably disagree with you without you teasing it out like this and putting a chip on your shoulder? Because it's getting difficult.

[Centerfield]

Is there any way to acceptably disagree with you without you teasing it out like this and putting a chip on your shoulder? Because it's getting kind of crazy.

Yes. Absolutely.

If you agree that the multi-year offers will come in but feel the need to make the correction:

Well, I don't think he put up MVP numbers in any sense, but your larger point is taken.

Completely fine! Agreed! He's not really a 2016 MVP candidate. Not irritating at all.

If you disagree, and you think the lack of MVP numbers is relevant:

I don't think he put up MVP numbers at all and so the offers won't be there. I think this distinction is important because....analysis...facts...backup.

Also fantastic. We can have an intelligent discussion.

But this:

It's important to remember he didn't really put up MVP-type numbers, and he wasn't particularly close. He was 53rd in fWar, for instance. Guys ahead of him included Odubel Herrera and Charlie Blackmon, Cesar Hernandez and D.J. LeMahieu.

This leaves me guessing why. Why is it important? Why are you citing to fWar? Are you saying these guys are better than Ces? Posts like this make me have to guess at your point.

Which inevitably leads to:

Please don't try and play me into a position I haven't taken.

I would love not to. Say what you mean. Tell me why you think it's important. Tell me what difference you think it will make. I will repeat what I said to you earlier in this thread.

Then make your argument Edgy. Don't just pick at mine.

If you think the distinction is significant, if you think it will make an affect on the likelihood of a long-term offer, explain it...please. I'm all ears.

[Edgy MD]

I say what I mean fine.

[Edgy MD]

If you want to know why, ask why. It should be obvious, but if isn't you can ask, not open up on me.

You chose the latter. Again. I don't know why.

[Centerfield]

Edgy,

It is very frustrating. You make statements like this:

Edgy MD wrote: Centerfield wrote: Like I said, I don't really see why you think the distinction is important. Because you made a statement, and I thought the facts didn't support it.

The facts not supporting my statement doesn't make it important. It just makes it wrong. You are basically saying "You were wrong. I felt like it was important to point out that you were wrong, because you are wrong."

Regardless of whether it changes the overall point, or whether it makes any difference as to the conclusion, you just want to point out when people are wrong.

That is annoying.

[Vic Sage]

forget it Jake... it's Chinatown.

[Edgy MD]

Yeah, again. I'm sorry you're annoyed.

I don't know how you can't see that it's relevant that a guy you're demanding be brought back is being incorrectly assessed. And that it's self-evident. Because it is.

I try and be as brief as possible, because the more I write, the more you re-write and turn into something else. If I could type a single character, I would. That's the level of self-censorship I'm undertaking with you. But if I disagree at length, you twist everything I write into something I didn't write. If I disagree in brief, you're annoyed, because I don't give you enough material to twist into something else.

It's pointless and exhausting. I'll just stay clear.

[Zvon]

Vic Sage wrote: forget it Jake... it's Chinatown.

I'm gonna have to make a graphic for BOC.

[Centerfield]

Edgy MD wrote: Yeah, again. I'm sorry you're annoyed. I don't know how you can't see that it's relevant that a guy you're demanding be brought back is being incorrectly assessed. And that it's self-evident. Because it is. I try and be as brief as possible, because the more I write, the more you re-write and turn into something else. If I could type a single character, I would. That's the level of self-censorship I'm undertaking with you. But if I disagree at length, you twist everything I write into something I didn't write. If I disagree in brief, you're annoyed, because I don't give you enough material to twist into something else. It's pointless and exhausting. I'll just stay clear.

I think the problem here is that you're not being honest with yourself. I mean, you're not being honest with me, but the more I think about it, I think you are lying to yourself as well.

I think you are bright enough to capture the main idea of a simple post, and I think you are thorough enough to go back and read to make sure. I think you fully understand the difference between insignificant and meaningful error, and whether a distinction is worth mentioning. I think you understand everything I am saying but you can't help yourself from making these comments anyway.

Why? Because you don't want the Mets to re-sign Yoenis Cespedes. And it irritates you to read people advocate for him all over this board.

That is why you say things like "I'm not sure I'd say they have lots of outfielders who are not nearly as good as Yoenis Céspedes." or call him "an enigmatic presence on the base paths and on defense, mixing occasional excellence alternatively with maddening aloofness." Occasional excellence? Really? That's why you compare him to Bobby Bonilla, point out he's not an MVP candidate and remind everyone that he's worse than Odubel Herrera when it comes to fWar.

But you won't admit you don't want Yoenis Cespedes. That's why you stretch to make impossible arguments as to why the Mets shouldn't sign him. And that's why it comes across as disingenuous.

Now, I don't think it's anything personal. You didn't like any of the big name free agents last year as well. In fact, during the 15 years or so that we've been posting, I don't think I've ever heard you say, "You know who wold be awesome for this team? Big Name Slugger about to hit the free market. That's who!"

And it was one thing when you used to justify it by saying you don't covet other teams' players, but this is our player. So just admit it. You want a team of scrappy home grown guys who don't make a lot. It's ok to say so. I don't know why you would want that, but hell, it's your preference. No one can tell you what you should like.

Just do me the favor of being up front about it so I can stop wasting my time with logical arguments.

[Edgy MD]

Centerfield wrote: I think the problem here is that you're not being honest with yourself.

No, this isn't true. But you've insulted me again. For no reason. Again. And amazingly, made up a position I didn't take. Again.

At length. Over and over and over. Over nothing. Because I disagreed with you. It's astounding. I have no way of engaging you. At all. I'll stop. I promise. I just don't have the time to deny all the garbage you throw at me. Not even close to enough.

[Centerfield]

Have this nightmare where he goes to San Francisco. With Bumgarner. And the Seavers.

I know patience is the right move, but dammit Sandy, sign this guy so I can rest.

Adam Rubin has an article that the payroll now is about $123 million.

http://www.espn.co.uk/blog/new-york/mets/post/_/id/124810/mets-current-2017-payroll-projection-123-9m

If they sign Ces, you figure you are at $150 million. We don't know exactly where the Mets end up, but one has to figure that this doesn't leave much room to upgrade anywhere else. If they trade Bruce, then you have some wiggle room which probably gets used up by a few bullpen arms. They definitely need a quality left-hander.

Basically, even if they bring back Cespedes, I don't see how they can upgrade the offense. Not a lot of great options out there, especially in our positions of need, and not a lot of money in the budget to sign free agents.

GM-ing is tough.

[Lefty Specialist]

Well, not clogging things up with $17.2 million to Walker would have been a good start.

[Ceetar]

I haven't thought about the Mets payroll in years. It was a fools game even when Alderson was giving 'hints' to it's cap, even more so now.

[Benjamin Grimm]

Mike Puma wrote: Cespedes' market, at the moment, is the Mets and three other teams, I was told. Cespedes camp expects early-December resolution.