Standings in 2016

[Edgy MD]

Congratulations, your Mets start the week as the first-place team in the Wild Card race, and the hottest team in the league.

NL East Division Race

Place	Team	W	L	PCT	GB	NGB		STRK	G	L10 W	L10 L	HEAT		Div W	Div L	PCT		Lg W	Lg L	PCT	Div %
1	[fimg=25]http://www.kcmets.com/CPF/WAS.png[/fimg] Washington	14	4	.779	—	—		W	3	7	3	10		11	4	.733		11	4	.733	51.6%
2	[fimg=25]http://www.kcmets.com/CPF/NYM.png[/fimg] New York	10	7	.588	3.5	3.5		W	3	8	2	11		7	5	.583		7	5	.583	47.4%
3	[fimg=25]http://www.kcmets.com/CPF/PHI.png[/fimg] Philadephia	9	10	.474	5.5	7.5		L	1	5	5	4		4	5	.444		9	10	.474	0.3%
4	[fimg=25]http://www.kcmets.com/CPF/MIA.png[/fimg] Miami	6	11	.353	7.5	13.5		W	1	3	7	4		5	7	.417		6	9	.400	0.7%
5	[fimg=25]http://www.kcmets.com/CPF/ATL.png[/fimg] Atlanta	4	14	.222	10.0	23.5		L	5	4	6	-1		3	9	.250		4	14	.222	0.1%

NL Wild Card Race

Place	Team	W	L	PCT	GB	NGB		STRK	G	L10 W	L10 L	HEAT		Lg W	Lg L	PCT	WC%
DIV	[fimg=25]http://www.kcmets.com/CPF/WAS.png[/fimg] Washington	14	4	.778	+3.5	+3.5		W	3	7	3	10		11	4	.733	33.7%
DIV	[fimg=25]http://www.kcmets.com/CPF/CHC.png[/fimg] Chicago	14	5	.737	+3.5	+3.5		W	1	6	4	7		12	5	.706	10.7%
DIV	[fimg=25]http://www.kcmets.com/CPF/LAD.png[/fimg] Los Angeles	12	7	.632	+2.0	+2.0		W	2	7	3	9		12	7	.632	9.1%
1	[fimg=25]http://www.kcmets.com/CPF/NYM.png[/fimg] New York	10	7	.588	+0.5	+0.5		W	3	8	2	11		3	5	.375	33.8%
2	[fimg=25]http://www.kcmets.com/CPF/STL.png[/fimg] St. Louis	10	8	.556	—	—		W	2	6	4	8		10	8	.556	27.8%
3	[fimg=25]http://www.kcmets.com/CPF/PIT.png[/fimg] Pittsburgh	10	9	.526	—	—		W	1	5	5	6		9	6	.600	25.1%
T4	[fimg=25]http://www.kcmets.com/CPF/ARI.png[/fimg] Arizona	10	10	.500	1.0	1.5		L	1	7	3	6		10	10	.500	10.1%
T4	[fimg=25]http://www.kcmets.com/CPF/COL.png[/fimg] Colorado	9	9	.500	1.0	1.5		L	2	5	5	3		9	9	.500	6.4%
T6	[fimg=25]http://www.kcmets.com/CPF/PHI.png[/fimg] Philadelphia	9	10	.474	1.5	3.5		L	1	5	5	4		9	10	.474	2.0%
T6	[fimg=25]http://www.kcmets.com/CPF/CIN.png[/fimg] Cincinnati	9	10	.474	1.5	3.5		L	1	4	6	3		9	10	.474	5.7%
8	[fimg=25]http://www.kcmets.com/CPF/SF.png[/fimg] San Francisco	9	11	.450	2.0	6.5		L	1	3	7	2		9	11	.450	21.4%
9	[fimg=25]http://www.kcmets.com/CPF/MIL.png[/fimg] Milwaukee	8	11	.421	2.5	10.0		W	1	4	6	5		4	8	.333	5.0%
10	[fimg=25]http://www.kcmets.com/CPF/SD.png[/fimg] San Diego	7	12	.368	3.5	18.0		L	2	4	6	2		7	12	.368	3.2%
11	[fimg=25]http://www.kcmets.com/CPF/MIA.png[/fimg] Miami	6	11	.353	3.5	18.0		W	1	3	7	4		6	9	.400	5.8%
12	[fimg=25]http://www.kcmets.com/CPF/ATL.png[/fimg] Atlanta	4	14	.222	6.0	43.0		L	5	4	6	-1		4	14	.222	0.2%

[Centerfield]

It's very early, but I wouldn't be surprised if the current top 6 end up being the eventual playoff contenders. Maybe Arizona and SF make some noise.

I think Miami will be better than they have shown so far, and I think Philly will slow down.

[TransMonk]

Centerfield wrote: It's very early, but I wouldn't be surprised if the current top 6 end up being the eventual playoff contenders.

I was thinking the exact same thing.

[Edgy MD]

I wouldn't count the Giants out. It's an even year. They're due.

[Lefty Specialist]

Boy, the NL cleaves very easily into the haves and have-nots, doesn't it?

[soupcan]

No one has any faith in Pittsburgh?

[Centerfield]

I'm all for cleavage.

[Frayed Knot]

soupcan wrote: No one has any faith in Pittsburgh?

They're part of the top 6

[soupcan]

I stand corrected.

[Chad ochoseis]

The funny thing about Pittsburgh is that they're absolutely killing it in batting average and OBP, but middle of the pack in runs scored. Power matters, more than I ever thought.

What does "HEAT" mean in that chart?

[Edgy MD]

A simple number based on an arbitrarily derived formula to measure the league's hotter and colder teams.

Wins in your last 10 games plus the length of your current winning streak (or minus the length of your current losing streak).

That way, the heat on a hot team doesn't completely dissipate if they lose a single game, but it's a setback momentum wise. And if you're red-hot, but lose two in a row, it can take you back to square one, momentum-wise. I think that's a somewhat representative indication of how momentum works, or is perceived, anyhow.

[Frayed Knot]

Lefty Specialist wrote: Boy, the NL cleaves very easily into the haves and have-nots, doesn't it?

Well there are a lot of .500-ish teams that could join one faction or the other as the year moves on.

Although, not that I put a lot of stock in 'Power Rankings', the one over on BP certainly contributes to the split league theory.
-- On their list for this week, five of the top six teams in baseball are NL clubs [Cubs, Nats, Dodgers, **White Sox**, Mets, Cards] while, at the same time, ALL of the bottom five are NLers also [Padres, Phils, Reds, Brewers, Braves]

[Centerfield]

Some interesting things going on so far in this early season:

1. Washington: I would have loved for them to stumble out of the gates and be mired in a terrible slump, but it's also kind of cool that they got off to that hot start, played about as well as they could have played, and now see their big lead shrink to a single game. Imagine if they don't even get out of April with the division lead despite not having played a team over .500 (and 9 games against what look like the 2 worst teams in baseball). That would be pretty demoralizing. Big game for them today. 1.5 versus .5 game lead going into a weekend series where they play a team that is actually good.

2. Philadelphia looks to be better than anyone expected. They definitely have some pitching. Maybe some bats too. I think both Philly and Miami will be pesky this year. Atlanta looks worse than expected. Which I didn't think was possible.

3. Cubs finish off against Milwaukee and then head to Atlanta. They might be playing close to .800 ball by the time that series is done!

[TransMonk]

I think this weekend against SF will be good test for the Mets. The Giants are certainly the best team they have played since that wacky two-game series vs. KC to open the year.

[Guest John Cougar Lunchbucket]

Could be a good demonstration of the power of rotation depth, as we have Matz-deGrom-Syndergaard on tap, and hard not to predict we get 2 of 3 with those guys going against anybody.

I don't know about you guys but it struck me shortly before Tyler Fucking Clippard and Muffy's error combined to ruin everything in Game 4 last year that this depth was the thing that was going to win the World Series for us. And it should have.

[Benjamin Grimm]

My feeling right now is that the division will be determined by the head-to-head between the Mets and the Nationals. (Strange that their first meeting won't be until May 17; all of the other divisional opponents have already met the Mets.)

Six games in May: hopefully they'll come at a time when the Mets are hot and the Nats are not.

[Edgy MD]

Most of the head-to-heading will be after the Wheeler Equinox.

[TransMonk]

Benjamin Grimm wrote: My feeling right now is that the division will be determined by the head-to-head between the Mets and the Nationals. (Strange that their first meeting won't be until May 17; all of the other divisional opponents have already met the Mets.) Six games in May: hopefully they'll come at a time when the Mets are hot and the Nats are not.

Agreed. Ronnie in the booth last night was going through Harvey's next batch of starts (as long as the Mets stick with a five-man rotation). Essentially he was saying he wanted to continue to see Matt make improvements vs. weaker teams like ATL, SD and COL, but that Harvey needs to have his shit fully together (paraphrasing, obviously) by the time that first Nationals series rolls around May 17-19.

[Frayed Knot]

Nats currently best in NL at run prevention at 2.6 RA/G, exactly 0.4 R/G better than the 3rd-best Mets (3.0)
On the scoring side, the 8th-best Mets are exactly 0.3 RS/G better than the 9th place Nats: 4.4 vs 4.1
... so all that's kind of even so far.

Two ways to look at how the Nats are pitching to date:
- One is that their worst starter so far has been Max Scherzer and you figure that he'll manage to lower that 4.35 ERA sooner or later.
- On the flip side, they're probably not likely to continue to get a minuscule ERA from Joe Ross (0.54), or even as low as they're currently getting from Tanner Roark (2.63) & Gio Gonzalez (1.42)

[Edgy MD]

John Cougar Lunchbucket wrote: Could be a good demonstration of the power of rotation depth, as we have Matz-deGrom-Syndergaard on tap, and hard not to predict we get 2 of 3 with those guys going against anybody. I don't know about you guys but it struck me shortly before Tyler Fucking Clippard and Muffy's error combined to ruin everything in Game 4 last year that this depth was the thing that was going to win the World Series for us. And it should have.

I tend to think that pitching depth is a great way to build a great team, but not necessarily the best distribution of resources to get you through the post season. At least, that was my conclusion from watching the dynastic Braves coming up short year after year.

I mean, eight or nine pitchers can carry you through a season. But you can get through the playoffs with seven. Ease up on the restrictions and ride the best ones a little harder. The World Series? You can pound through that with six guys, if they're the right six guys. If you're Tommy Lasorda, you don't give crap about anybody's future. The future is now!

But if you've spent good money on building up far more pitching depth than you need for a short series, money that could have been spent on a slugging infielder, you may not end up being the World Series Champ you've looked like all season long.

Regular season baseball and post-season baseball are two different ballgames. I'm not sure how to reconcile that.

[Frayed Knot]

Centerfield wrote: Some interesting things going on so far in this early season: 2. Philadelphia looks to be better than anyone expected. They definitely have some pitching. Maybe some bats too. I think both Philly and Miami will be pesky this year. Atlanta looks worse than expected. Which I didn't think was possible.

Just completed a sweep of the Nats, including back-to-back 3-0 shutouts. (3 runs allowed the whole series)

Always nice to gain ground on an off day.

[Centerfield]

How great is it that it was the Phils beating Papelbon?

Half a game. We could be in first place in 24 hours. Amazing considering how the season started for the Mets and Nationals.

[Benjamin Grimm]

And I didn't even have to go to Peru to make it happen!

[Fman99]

Centerfield wrote: I'm all for cleavage.

[Edgy MD]

Bill James publishes a Heat Index too!

The hottest teams in baseball at this moment are: New York Mets 113° Chicago Cubs 110° Pittsburgh Pirates 100° Philadelphia Phillies 99° Florida Marlins 93°

[Edgy MD]

With the Mets' loss yesterday, the new hottest team in the National League is, shockingly, the Philadelphia Phillies.

Man, with an eight-game win streak, in the rain, on a getaway day, with the series already in the bag, against Madison Bumgarner, and three games into a 17-in-17 stretch, if there was ever a time to run the reserves out there, yesterday was the day. Terry's no fool. But with Washington completing a sweep yesterday, the Mets find themselves in a heat sandwich, with a hot team on top of them and a hot team below.

Meanwhile, the Giants' win puts them into a three-way tie at .500 atop the National League West. I'm putting Colorado in the division lead based on their superior interdivisional record, but it's heartening to see that the billion-dollar Dodgers can't find the gas pedal.

Columns are tightened up below, but still messy, due to our table-making limits.

Place	Team	W	L	PCT	GB	NGB		STRK	L10 W	L10 L	HEAT		Div W	Div L	DIV PCT		LG W	LG L	LG PCT	BP DIV %
1	[fimg=25]http://www.kcmets.com/CPF/WAS.png[/fimg] Washington	17	7	.708	—	—		W3	6	4	9		11	7	.611		14	7	.667	39.6%
2	[fimg=25]http://www.kcmets.com/CPF/NYM.png[/fimg] New York	15	8	.652	1.5	1.5		L1	8	2	7		7	5	.583		12	6	.667	58.0%
3	[fimg=25]http://www.kcmets.com/CPF/PHI.png[/fimg] Philadephia	15	10	.600	2.5	3.5		W6	9	1	15		7	5	.583		15	10	.600	0.9%
4	[fimg=25]http://www.kcmets.com/CPF/MIA.png[/fimg] Miami	12	12	.500	5.0	11.0		L1	7	3	6		5	7	.417		12	10	.545	1.5%
5	[fimg=25]http://www.kcmets.com/CPF/ATL.png[/fimg] Atlanta	6	18	.250	11.0	35.0		W1	2	8	3		3	9	.250		5	15	.250	0.0%

Place	Team	W	L	PCT	GB	NGB		STRK	L10 W	L10 L	HEAT		LG W	LG L	LG PCT	BP WC %
DIV	[fimg=25]http://www.kcmets.com/CPF/CHC.png[/fimg] Chicago	17	6	.739	+3.0	+3.0		L1	7	3	6		15	6	.714	9.9%
DIV	[fimg=25]http://www.kcmets.com/CPF/WAS.png[/fimg] Washington	17	7	.708	+1.5	+1.5		W3	6	4	9		14	7	.667	45.0%
DIV	[fimg=25]http://www.kcmets.com/CPF/COL.png[/fimg] Colorado	12	12	.500	+0.0	+0.0		W3	4	6	7		12	12	.500	5.0%
1	[fimg=25]http://www.kcmets.com/CPF/NYM.png[/fimg] New York	15	8	.652	+1.0	+1.0		L1	8	2	7		3	6	.333	31.8%
2	[fimg=25]http://www.kcmets.com/CPF/PIT.png[/fimg] Pittsburgh	15	10	.600	+0.0	+0.0		L1	8	2	7		14	7	.667	33.3%
3	[fimg=25]http://www.kcmets.com/CPF/PHI.png[/fimg] Philadelphia	15	10	.600	—	—		W6	9	1	15		12	10	.545	6.3%
T4	[fimg=25]http://www.kcmets.com/CPF/SF.png[/fimg] San Francisco	13	13	.500	2.5	5.0		W1	6	4	7		13	13	.500	16.7%
T4	[fimg=25]http://www.kcmets.com/CPF/LAD.png[/fimg] Los Angeles	13	13	.500	2.5	5.0		W1	3	7	4		13	13	.500	10.6%
T6	[fimg=25]http://www.kcmets.com/CPF/MIA.png[/fimg] Miami	12	12	.500	2.5	5.0		L1	7	3	6		12	10	.545	11.3%
T6	[fimg=25]http://www.kcmets.com/CPF/STL.png[/fimg] St. Louis	12	13	.480	3.0	7.5		L4	4	6	0		9	10	.474	19.6%
8	[fimg=25]http://www.kcmets.com/CPF/ARI.png[/fimg] Arizona	12	15	.444	4.0	13.5		L3	3	7	0		12	15	.444	4.6%
9	[fimg=25]http://www.kcmets.com/CPF/CIN.png[/fimg] Cincinnati	10	15	.400	5.0	20.5		W1	2	8	3		7	12	.368	1.8%
10	[fimg=25]http://www.kcmets.com/CPF/MIL.png[/fimg] Milwaukee	9	15	.375	5.5	24.5		W1	3	7	4		7	11	.389	2.4%
11	[fimg=25]http://www.kcmets.com/CPF/SD.png[/fimg] San Diego	9	16	.360	6.0	29.0		L1	3	7	2		9	16	.360	1.6%
12	[fimg=25]http://www.kcmets.com/CPF/ATL.png[/fimg] Atlanta	6	18	.250	8.5	54.0		W1	2	8	3		5	15	.250	0.1%

[TransMonk]

http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-mlb-predictions/

fivethirtyeight.com has the Mets rated as the second best team in the MLB (just behind the Cubs and just in front of the Nats) as of the games played through yesterday.

Per the site, the forecast is based on 50,000 simulations of the season and accounts for starting pitchers, travel distance and rest. The ratings update after each game.

[Frayed Knot]

I'm thinking the Cardinals might be in a bit of trouble this year.
Already they've been swept by Pitt & Wash and have lost 2 of 3 to the Cubs while their near .500 record and wildly positive RS/RA ratio is largely due to blowouts vs the weaker sisters of the league (Atl, Milw, SD). It's still a small sample size, but I'm thinking that in this case the RS/RA ratio is more likely to start resembling the W/L record than the other way around.

They also seem to be only as good as they are thanks to out of nowhere contributions by guys nobody had heard of (don't they always though?): Almedys Diaz is filling in at SS for Jhonny Peralta and hitting a league-leading (.405/.435/.703); Jeremy Hazelbaker (no, really, that's his name) is a 28 y/o twice-released (including once by StL) rookie with 11 XBH in 64 ABs; they're also getting a near .400 average (18 for 48) out of their pinch-hitters including a ridiculous 7 HRs. There's a lot in there that doesn't seem sustainable.
Meanwhile on the mound, Adam Wainwright (34) seems lost and/or done (7+ ERA) while FA signing Mike Leake suxx. Then they have to count on the increasingly creaky duo of Molina (33) & Holliday (36) to stay healthy & productive at a time when the Cubs are threatening to run away and hide. We don't see them until late July.



As several comments above said, and as Gary mentioned the other day, with a split seeming to emerge in the NL this year, the early trend looks towards the Mets, Nats, Cards, Cubs, and Pirates fighting for four playoff spots (East, Central, both WCs) while a mediocre free-for-all in the west battles for the 5th slot.

[Edgy MD]

Peralta is due back at the start of June. That's one thing.

They also have a couple of good starting pitcher prospects cooking in Memphis, though who knows with that? Syndergaard spent a over a full season in AAA.

But the Cards are hard to count out.

[Frayed Knot]

Edgy MD wrote: Peralta is due back at the start of June. That's one thing.

Sure but, when he does return, he'll likely represent a step back from his replacement.