Now let's resume our discussion of Ben Zobrist

[Centerfield]

Ceetar wrote: Kelly Johnson kinda sucks though. Herrara is a complete wild card (And Flores might not be a good SS) and if you're not trusting Cuddyer in the OF mix, he's not a candidate for long-stretch David Wright replacement either, which might be something they should factor in.

It's strange. Kelly Johnson, 33, is going to sign a one-year bargain deal someplace. Zobrist, 35, will have a four year deal around $15 per.

Johnson and Zobrist are both utility types who hit for middling power. Johnson .755 career OPS. Zobrist .786.

It's crazy how differently they are viewed.

[Ceetar]

if you adjust that for park, Johnson has a 102 OPS+ and Zobrist a 117.

Johnson has a 103 career wRC+, Zobrist a 118.

Zobrist is a very good hitter, Johnson is average. To say nothing of defense and speed.

[Vic Sage]

Centerfield wrote: Gwreck wrote: I agree, they should sign both Heyward and Zobrist

and if it's just one, it should be Heyward. And signing him doesn't require ANY other OF moves. You have a LHed OF of Conforto/ Heyward/ Granderson, with Lagares and Cuddyer backing them up.
signing Zobrist means the IF is Wright/Flores/Zobrist/Duda with Tejada backing up at MI and Cuddyer backing up at CI. A LHed bat would still be needed for the bench, like KJohnson, and a credible backup catcher.
If no Zobrist, you try Herrera and, if he tanks, you move Flores over and put Tejada at SS. It's still a solid IF.

Basically, I think the long-term impact of Heyward over Lagares/Cuddyer (with Nimmo in the pipeline) will be greater than Zobrist over Herrera/Tejada/Johnson (with Reynolds, Cecchini & Rosario coming up), particularly given their relative ages. You could give Heyward an 8-year deal today and, at the end of it, he'd still be younger than Zobrist is now.

[Guest John Cougar Lunchbucket]

We'd totally miss out on Bryce Harper if we signed Heyward to 8.

[Edgy MD]

I've got no feelies for Jason Heyward. He's been a good hitter, but not a great one apart from his rookie year. (In fact, Zobrist has outhit him pretty consistently.) He's been a very good to excellent fielder, but experience suggests defense peaks early. It's been five years since that shiny rookie season and he hasn't made an All Star team since.

I'd like to have him, but won't miss him. Eight years? That's silly talk.

[Guest John Cougar Lunchbucket]

Yah for a corner OF whose hit 20 HRs once. I like the guy, but don't like-like him.

[metsmarathon]

given the choice between heyward and cespedes, for similar dollars, I'd go heyward a million times. if we're to overpay for somebody this offseason, heyward is the man.

[Centerfield]

Edgy MD wrote: I've got no feelies for Jason Heyward. He's been a good hitter, but not a great one apart from his rookie year. (In fact, Zobrist has outhit him pretty consistently.) He's been a very good to excellent fielder, but experience suggests defense peaks early. It's been five years since that shiny rookie season and he hasn't made an All Star team since. I'd like to have him, but won't miss him. Eight years? That's silly talk.

Heyward and Zobrist, to this point, have been nearly identical hitters. OBP of .353 and .355 respectively. SLG is identical at .431.

Factor in Heyward's speed and elite defense, and the two are not really comparable. Plus, at 26, Heyward is just about to enter his prime. Zobrist's best days are behind him.

On Edit: (I meant comparable on speed and defense)

Edited December 7, 2015 by Guest

[Gwreck]

Edgy MD wrote: I've got no feelies for Jason Heyward. He's been a good hitter, but not a great one apart from his rookie year. (In fact, Zobrist has outhit him pretty consistently.) He's been a very good to excellent fielder, but experience suggests defense peaks early. It's been five years since that shiny rookie season and he hasn't made an All Star team since. I'd like to have him, but won't miss him. Eight years? That's silly talk.

8 years seems like a long time, but he also turned 26 in August. At the end of an 8 year deal, he will be 34, younger than Zobrist is now.

[Edgy MD]

Sure, but it's also eight years worth of things that can go wrong to turn everything south.

And frankly, I'm not confident in the trajectory his career is heading in now.

[Ceetar]

the beat writers/national guys seem pretty confident that the Mets will end up with Zobrist this week.

[Edgy MD]

Yeah, Cerrone's already bought his kid a jersey.

Matt Cerrone wrote: My hunch is Zobrist will eventually be weighing comparable four-year offers from the Mets, Giants and Nationals. The Giants play on the west coast, they train in Arizona and they would mostly use him in left field, none of which are his preferences, from what I've heard. This is probably why FoxSports.com's Ken Rosenthal is saying the Mets and Nationals are the frontrunners to sign him. The two NL East rivals both play closer to Zobrist's home in Tennessee, they both train in Florida (a short flight to Nashville), and they'll use him on the infield, as well as occasionally in the outfield. I like the Mets' chances of getting him. I've heard he enjoyed his tour of Citi Field and New York. He saw their pitching up close in the World Series. He knows their arms are legit and can propel them to postseason contention during the life of his deal. Also, Mets COO Jeff Wilpon is rumored to be headed to the Winter Meetings, which he doesn't usually do unless there is a possible deal on the table. The Nationals, on the other hand, feel like a team on the verge of falling apart, with their top story being about a disgruntled closer. This negotiation is reminding me of when the Mets went after Curtis Granderson, who also wanted a four-year deal. The Mets initially offered three years. They held firm. But, eventually, they locked in at four years and $60 million and got it done. I bet they make a similar offer to Zobrist. Is it going to be good enough? That remains to be seen. But, I think we'll know in the next 48 hours...

He makes his argument well enough, but for some reason, I don't tend to trust Cerrone, which is weird, because his inside info should be as good as anybody's.

[Ceetar]

Is he AT the meetings?

Jeff Wilpon apparently showed up and people seem to be taking that as "oh, gotta get someone to sign the check so this is a sign"

[Edgy MD]

More likely the speculation is related to playing MC at any press conferences that might break out, which makes sense, from a speculation point of view.

[Guest John Cougar Lunchbucket]

I don;t believe Cerrone is any closer to the Mets insiders than you are. He takes in the consensus and guesses along with the rest of us.

[Frayed Knot]

Rosenthal says it's down to Mets, Giants, & Nats* and speculates that the two NL East teams have the advantage of being closer to his Tennessee home for both the season and spring training, something that's apparently on his list of wants.
Sounds like it could be who blinks on the fourth year. Wash GM Mike Rizzo tends to go all out on whoever he's after but also strikes me as the type to put his foot down and say 'three years but not a day longer' if that's how he (or his owners) truly feel.
If both clubs concede the 4th year, it may come down to something simple like which org Zobrist thinks is in better shape going forward. A year ago the east choice would have been the Nats, but now they've fallen short of expectations in 3 of the last 4 seasons and are currently minus a SS plus two starting pitchers while both closer candidates are said to be on the market lest they become the target of boo-birds from opening day on.
Oh yeah, and the other team reached the World Series.



* of course Greinke was supposedly down to just the Dodgers & Giants before winding up in the desert, but we'll gloss over that for now

[Gwreck]

Edgy MD wrote: Sure, but it's also eight years worth of things that can go wrong to turn everything south. And frankly, I'm not confident in the trajectory his career is heading in now.

Yes, and David Wright could get run over by a city bus tomorrow too. I think we all understand the risks of long term contracts.

I do not understand what you mean by the "trajectory his career is heading in now." I was surprised by the comment about his only having one all-star selection too.

I see WAR of 4.6 (2010), 2.5 (2011), 5.8 (2012), 3.7 (2013), 6.2 (2014) and 6.5 (2015) and that certainly seems to me to be a player worth signing to a long term deal if he's only 26 years old.

[batmagadanleadoff]

Gwreck wrote: Yes, and David Wright could get run over by a city bus tomorrow too. I think we all understand the risks of long term contracts. I do not understand what you mean by the "trajectory his career is heading in now." I was surprised by the comment about his only having one all-star selection too. I see WAR of 4.6 (2010), 2.5 (2011), 5.8 (2012), 3.7 (2013), 6.2 (2014) and 6.5 (2015) and that certainly seems to me to be a player worth signing to a long term deal if he's only 26 years old.

Totally agree with you. I didn't get that trajectory comment either, especially when we're juxtaposing Heyward with Zobrist. Did anyone take a look at Zobrist's "trajectory" ferchrissakes? Not that you'd need to. He'll be 35 early next season. That, alone, tells you just about everything you'd need to know and expect from Zobrist's trajectory. I think that a lot of these analyses are overly complicated. The issue is, if you had to choose between the two, which one's gonna improve the Mets more, not how many all-star games they're projected to make. I'd say Heyward, easily. Not that the Mets are gonna get Heyward anyway, so in a sense, this is just another time waster. Of course, a NY franchise that acts like a NY franchise wouldn't have to limit themselves to one or the other if it truly wanted both of these guys. If so, they'd make competitive offers to both players and would be able to afford to carry both should they both choose the Mets.

[MFS62]

Let's do some math.
Last year, the average person attending a Mets game spent $135. (Ticket, parking , concessions) I think I saw it in the WSJ.
An increase in attendance of 2,000 people per game would yield an income of over $22 million per year.
Won't a good offense to go with their pitching keep them in contention all year, producing that kind of increase in attendance?
Would adding a middle of the lineup star hitter for less than that be worth it to management?
That's the question they should be asking themselves.

Later

[Ceetar]

if age is the only factor we're looking at, Just play Herrara, Conforto, and Flores and hope they work out. Free agents don't tend to be young and the ones that do tend to demand contracts that take them until they're not.

Like Heyward. He's a nice player. But he's not quite a centerfielder from the reports. (he's only played there very little) Sure, he hits like an elite centerfielder, but not so much in a corner. (he was the 8th best wRC+ RFer last year) He would've been 5th in LF (Behind Zobrist) And last year was his best year in a bunch and he might have gotten a few breaks to get there.

I dunno that that guy's worth a large contract on the hope that he won't be embarrassing and negate the advantage (especially going forward) in center.

[Edgy MD]

Gwreck wrote: Yes, and David Wright could get run over by a city bus tomorrow too. I think we all understand the risks of long term contracts.

Well, this eight-year deal is contrasted with the benefits of a shorter-term deal and that wasn't mentioned.

Gwreck wrote: I do not understand what you mean by the "trajectory his career is heading in now."

I mean I'm not confident.

His age and OPS+ by year

20 - 131
21 - 93
22 - 117
23 - 114
24 - 109
25 - 116

This is a good player, but as a corner outfielder, those numbers don't fill me with confidence for a great future, certainly not enough for me to invest eight years worth.

Gwreck wrote: I was surprised by the comment about his only having one all-star selection too.

Well, it's just a fact. This is a guy who, when the middle of the season rolls around, does not stand out in the mind of the public or the All-Star managers as among the best at his position.

Gwreck wrote: I see WAR of 4.6 (2010), 2.5 (2011), 5.8 (2012), 3.7 (2013), 6.2 (2014) and 6.5 (2015) and that certainly seems to me to be a player worth signing to a long term deal if he's only 26 years old.

These are good numbers, but they are, in a large part, a product of strong defense, which peaks early. Outfield defense has been described at Fangraphs as peaking at around 24. And one injury, and that defense becomes a shell of itself. And even healthy the assumption that he's an everyday center fielder is still in the realm of wishcraft.

Carlos Beltran only got seven years, and he spent a good chunk of it rehabbing or playing hurt.

I view him like a view all non-Mets, with suspicion. But putting that hairy bias aside, it doesn't seem altogether unfounded, does it?

[metsmarathon]

If you think of him more as a centerfielder now (which he would be for the first few years) and as a corner outfielder later, his production seems a little bit more gooder, no?

I don't necessarily buy into the corner outfield must be a slugger thing. I wants me WARs and I wants them wherever and however I can gets them.

[Edgy MD]

Sure, those OPS+ numbers look better as a center fielder, but (again) we're merely speculating that he can perform there, and (again also) outfield defense productivity fades quickly after the early 20s. So he better spike on offense to make up for those WARs he's likely gonna lose on defense or Met pitchers will be sad.

[Gwreck]

Edgy MD wrote: Carlos Beltran only got seven years, and he spent a good chunk of it rehabbing or playing hurt.

And yet, despite losing some time to injury, Beltran remains one of the best free agent signings the Mets ever had.

They got 5 healthy seasons in which he was no worse than a solid everyday regular, and of course at times substantially better than that.
Yes, they also got 2 seasons interrupted by injury - although he was still a valuable player when on the field.

That's a reasonable expectation of return, I think, on a long term contract.

[Benjamin Grimm]

I think when you sign a player to these deals, you accept that there's a decent chance that the player will be overpriced and under-useful in the last year or two. I think the fourth year of Zobrist (but hopefully not the third year) falls into that category.

[Edgy MD]

No word on the expected victory lap.

Reports earlier today indicated the Mets, recognizing the competition were ready to concede on a fourth year. Most recent reports this afternoon suggest the Mets are trying to hold at three, believing the Nats to be the main competition, with Washington willing to satisfy themselves by bidding the Mets up to that fourth year.

Curious how well the Mets play this sort of hard poker (calling bluffs on both the Nats and the Zobrist reps) without Sandy in the room.

I imagine Zobrist won't be making a commitment today after all if a fourth year doesn't materialize.

[Benjamin Grimm]

Hmmm... I had heard that the Mets were okay with the fourth year. Maybe they still are, but are hoping to find a way to get it done with three years. (If that's their secret plan we really shouldn't know anything about it...)

[Lefty Specialist]

Supposedly 4 years, $80 million (presumably from the Nats) is on the table. If so, I'll take my chances with Dilson Herrera.

[Edgy MD]

Bob Nightengale ?@BNightengale 16m 16 minutes ago Ben Zobrist has a four-year, $80 million offer on the table. The #Mets still considered favorites to ultimately land him.

!!!

[Ceetar]

Edgy MD wrote: Curious how well the Mets play this sort of hard poker (calling bluffs on both the Nats and the Zobrist reps) without Sandy in the room.

Wonder if it makes it easier.

"Hold for a minute please, let me see if Sandy's done with chemo"

yank at the strings of compassion.