The Unsucking of Wilmer Flores

[G-Fafif]

Mark Simon makes the case that for a shortstop who sucks defensively, Wilmer Flores doesn't really suck all that much defensively.

Flores entered Monday with minus-1 defensive runs saved this season and a 1.2 Ultimate Zone Rating. Those equate to being a hair below and a hair above average this season. That's not great, but it's certainly not as bad as it could be. We checked in with the folks at Baseball Info Solutions, which devised the defensive runs saved stat (a measure of how effective a player is at turning batted balls into outs and performance at other position-related skills, such as turning double plays), for a comprehensive explanation of how Flores could rate so well, despite his many early season miscues. Scott Spratt, one of the Baseball Info Solutions research analysts, made three points on Flores' play. 1. �We noticed that Flores looks like he's doing a good job of shading himself to account for the batter's tendencies and bat side. I think that may be helping him get to some balls that not every player makes.� 2. �It looks like many of Flores' best plays have been the result of great throws. It looks like he's maybe making up for some of his errors by making those unexpected plays with good throws.� 3. "Almost all of [Flores'] misplays and errors result in one lost base, which is relatively minor in terms of run value, compared to something like a failed conversion of a deep fly ball by an outfielder or a groundball down the line that becomes a double. If he is plus in terms of range or throwing, he can more easily offset a high volume of mistakes by converting extra balls.�

[Guest d'Kong76]

May the unsucking continue!

[Ceetar]

Inside edge doesn't love him much.

http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=ss&stats=fld≶=all&qual=y&type=3&season=2015&month=0&season1=2015&ind=0&team=0&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0&sort=15,d

[Guest John Cougar Lunchbucket]

Eyewitness Defense doesn't think he's all that great with the old leather either but the guy's on pace for 27 friggin home runs this year. 27!!

[Fman99]

He's heroically super awesome.

[Guest themetfairy]

You're all going to learn to love me.

[MFS62]

From the Simon article:

1. �We noticed that Flores looks like he's doing a good job of shading himself to account for the batter's tendencies and bat side. I think that may be helping him get to some balls that not every player makes.�

That's funny because it is the explanation MFY fans would give when talking about Jeter's limited range. I've also used it to describe how NL MVP Dick Groat played short. (IIRC it was in my Historic KTE about the 1960 Pirates)
Later

[TransMonk]

I enjoy watching Flores as a hitter and I am slowly becoming a fan.

He is not perfect defensively, but if he can make the routine plays and hit 25 HRs, I can live with limited range.

[Ceetar]

TransMonk wrote: I enjoy watching Flores as a hitter and I am slowly becoming a fan. He is not perfect defensively, but if he can make the routine plays and hit 25 HRs, I can live with limited range.

Only Ian Desmond makes a lower percentage of routine plays at SS this year.

[Edgy MD]

Yeah, but (1) that's not necessarily the bottom line, and (2) one of our stupid offseason fake Mets scandals was the Mets' intransigence in not giving up Syndergaard for Desmond.

[TransMonk]

I'm not saying Wilmer has been great at routine plays, but I do think he's gotten better in recent weeks.

If he can stop booting balls right at him, I'm OK with him not being able to cover a ton of ground.

Flores has as many HRs as any other ML SS and (especially on this team) that's not nothing.

[Frayed Knot]

Errors committed at SS this season:

Marcus Semien (OAK) - 17 ... SEVEN-FRICKIN'-TEEN!?!
Ian Desmond (WAS) - 12
Danny Santana (MIN) - 10
Elvis Andrus (TEX) - 10
Starlin Castro (CHC) - 9
Wilmer Flores (NYM) - 9


And, yes, errors don't tell the whole story. But SSs (and/or 3Bmen) almost always have the highest number of errors on the team so comparing Wilmer's errors to someone else not at that position is totally meaningless.
20+, if he continues the pace he's at for the majority of the season, would be high but not absurdly so (50+ for Semien on the other hand ... ) and it's not like we'd have ZERO errors at SS with someone else out there.

He seems to be getting a bit more comfortable out there (maybe wishful thinking) and I think a lot of the criticism came from the timing of some of his early miscues (flubbed GiDPs, etc.).

[G-Fafif]

"Almost all of [Flores'] misplays and errors result in one lost base, which is relatively minor in terms of run value, compared to something like a failed conversion of a deep fly ball by an outfielder or a groundball down the line that becomes a double. If he is plus in terms of range or throwing, he can more easily offset a high volume of mistakes by converting extra balls.�

The one lost base/run value component turns the idea of the importance of a "two-out shortstop" on its head, which may not be all that new (Moneyball, et al), but I found fascinating the idea that a Wilmer screwup wouldn't be as bad a ball getting by one of the corner positions. That would probably happen less frequently, however.

He really does seem like a smart player who works hard and improves. That gives me hope. That and the 27-HR pace.

[Centerfield]

Frayed Knot wrote: Errors committed at SS this season: Marcus Semien (OAK) - 17 ... SEVEN-FRICKIN'-TEEN!?!

Fifty plus. I know the A's have always been on the forefront in terms of seminal ideas, but this one may blow up right in their face. I mean, fifty plus errors, if it comes to it, can leave anyone feeling a little testy.

[Zvon]

So lets see where we're at with Flores.

Games: 40
Homeruns: 7
RBI: 19
Errors: 9

Until he has more homers than errors he's on my shit list.

[Guest LeiterWagnerFasterStrongr]

Centerfield wrote: Errors committed at SS this season: Marcus Semien (OAK) - 17 ... SEVEN-FRICKIN'-TEEN!?! Fifty plus. I know the A's have always been on the forefront in terms of seminal ideas, but this one may blow up right in their face. I mean, fifty plus errors, if it comes to it, can leave anyone feeling a little testy.

When you're thinking about a guy who's more comfortable with his bat in hand than putting a glove on it, you have to figure on a few dribblers to trickle past every now and again. But, yeah, that sort of leakage is just sloppy. You've got to handle your balls better than that, son, or you'll be stuck sitting around with a squeeze bottle and a towel.

[Frayed Knot]

So lets see where we're at with Flores. Games: 40 Homeruns: 7 RBI: 19 Errors: 9 Until he has more homers than errors he's on my shit list.

What percentage of everyday shortstops do you suppose out-homer their error total in a given year? ... I don't know either, but I'd venture a guess that it's decidedly in the minority, both now and in the history of the game.

[Benjamin Grimm]

Ozzie Smith, over his 19-year career, had more than 10 errors for every home run he hit. (281 errors, 28 home runs.)

[Guest d'Kong76]

Everyone on Frayed's list above is in the same boat...
Marcus Semien (OAK) - 17 ... SEVEN-FRICKIN'-TEEN!?!..6HR
Ian Desmond (WAS) - 12 ... 4HR
Danny Santana (MIN) - 10 ... 0 HR
Elvis Andrus (TEX) - 10 ... 2HR
Starlin Castro (CHC) - 9 ... 3HR
Wilmer Flores (NYM) - 9 ... 7HR

[Ceetar]

How about he out-homers the routine plays he's botched? because he's not doing that either.

[Guest LeiterWagnerFasterStrongr]

A cursory review of the last few years makes it seem like the more-boom-than-boot rate is around 10 percent these days. 3 out of 22 qualifying shortstops did it last year (Jhonny Peralta, Jordy Mercer, and Jimmy Rollins), with Ian Desmond and Alexei Ramirez achieving the rare push.

[Edgy MD]

What percentage of everyday shortstops do you suppose out-homer their error total in a given year? ... I don't know either, but I'd venture a guess that it's decidedly in the minority, both now and in the history of the game.

The always-remarkable Cal Ripken did it 13 times in 14 full seasons at shortstop. (And with him, a full season was a full season.)

The 14th year, he was dead even: 26 errors and 26 homers.

LeiterWagnerFasterStrongr wrote: A cursory review of the last few years makes it seem like the more-boom-than-boot rate is around 10 percent these days. 3 out of 22 qualifying shortstops did it last year (Jhonny Peralta, Jordy Mercer, and Jimmy Rollins), with Ian Desmond and Alexei Ramirez achieving the rare push.

Hey, you can believe what you want, but the statistics say oth... oh, wait.

[Zvon]

So lets see where we're at with Flores. Games: 40 Homeruns: 7 RBI: 19 Errors: 9 Until he has more homers than errors he's on my shit list. What percentage of everyday shortstops do you suppose out-homer their error total in a given year? ... I don't know either, but I'd venture a guess that it's decidedly in the minority, both now and in the history of the game.

This isn't an evaluation of the average shortstop. This is "The Flores Power Vs. Fielding Chart". Alls he has to do is have more home runs than errors at the ASbreak and he can continue on at short. But he has to keep the HRs above the errors through out the second half. If he makes it past the ASG it shouldn't be too hard to meet my expectations. I'm not asking too much from the guy.


Your comment is very interesting though. Both of us watched baseball for many years when the norm at short was all glove, light bat. Up until the mid 80's I guess, but still many teams leaned towards a glove as opposed to offense at short.

[Edgy MD]

I think though, that if the qualifications to get a player off the shit list are qualifications that only 10% of the players starting regularly at that position can meet, we're gonna find ourselves awash in shit, even if the team succeeds wildly.

FanGraphs has the guy eighth in WAR among all shortstops, at 0.9. Ian Desmond, who the Mets were supposed to trade Syndergaard for and so prove their seriousness, is 15th, at 0.2. Tulowitzki, whose non-aquisition has Met fans burning their jerseys, is 17th at -0.1.

As much as the team's offense has struggled, we all might do well to think about where they might be without Flores.

[Frayed Knot]

"This isn't an evaluation of the average shortstop." -- No, it's an evaluation of a SS in the first quarter of his first full season in MLB.


"This is "The Flores Power Vs. Fielding Chart". Alls he has to do is have more home runs than errors at the ASbreak and he can continue on at short." -- Even though his replacement will also most likely fail to make that same standard? And then how quickly does that guy get axed when the numbers don't add up?


"But he has to keep the HRs above the errors through out the second half. If he makes it past the ASG it shouldn't be too hard to meet my expectations. I'm not asking too much from the guy." -- Judged by the history of the position, this is virtually the definition of asking too much from him.

[Zvon]

You won't find any non-Mets on my shit list because I don't give a shit about non-Mets. I don't care one iota about shortstops playing for other teams and what they have to do. The Flores experiment, to me, is a simple one. He's here for his bat, for his long ball power. If he can't meet my criteria he fails as this teams shortstop, IMO. This does not apply to all the SS's in baseball. Just our Wilmer.

If he's close at the ASbreak, like 16 errors and 15 homers, I'll cut him some slack. Right now I do realize he has contributed powerfully to some wins, but how many?

How many 3 run homers has Flofeets hit? 3? 4 inc the granny? How many games has he won with his bat?

How many errors has he made that contributed directly to a loss?

These things should be considered too, but if he has more HRs than errors at the ASB it makes it a lot easier to move forward w/Wilma @ SS.

And during this season I would not go outside the organization for a fix a short (unless it's the perfect deal with the perfect addition). I wouldn't trade Matz for anyone. I have another list that smells like roses, and he's pretty high on that one. A lefty who can bring it. I'd deal Wheeler or Noah first, if we HAVE to involve a starting pitcher. I'd much rather see us hold on to all our top pitchers and bring up Reynolds if Wilma falls flat(footed). Reynolds should be up for Wright already (imo) which wouldn't address the SS problem because I'd have him at third for now. And I'd leave Wilmer alone until July (if he doesn't absolutely fall apart in between).

[Zvon]

Frayed Knot wrote: "But he has to keep the HRs above the errors through out the second half. If he makes it past the ASG it shouldn't be too hard to meet my expectations. I'm not asking too much from the guy." -- Judged by the history of the position, this is virtually the definition of asking too much from him.

In the case of Flores I think it's a pretty fair measuring stick. I mean, what he's there for. To hit homers. If he can't do it, and he can't field at least average, he shouldn't be there in the first place. But Sandy made his choice. I'm for giving Flores the time he needs to succeed. And that would be early July.

[Benjamin Grimm]

I think if he hits 30 homers and makes 35 errors, I'd take that in a heartbeat.

[ashie62]

Leads the team in homers. Does not lead NL shortstops in errors.

[Ceetar]

Tejada's a push at 1:1.


I agree that Flores needs to hit longballs. It's the only thing that keeping him somewhat viable. Of course, he could start walking some too, and providing overall offensive ability, but maybe don't hold your breath on that.