Is this Piazza's year?

[Edgy MD]

I�m Nomar Garciaparra. I went .313 / .361 / .521 // .882 over 6,116 plate appearances, 78% from the shortstop position. Each of these rate stats are decidedly superior to, for instance, Cal Ripken, or for another instance, Robin Yount. I batted .357 in 1999 and followed that up with a .372 in 2000. Inflated era? Maybe, but both those numbers led the rest of the inflated-assed league. In 2002, I hit 56 doubles and 85 extra-base hits. I never quite won an MVP, but I accumulated 1.67 MVP shares.

They used to call me a super shortstop. I am about to disappear quietly after one season on the ballot, getting 1.28% of the vote from the BBWAA and 0.00% from the CPFAA.

[stevejrogers]

Edgy MD wrote: I�m Nomar Garciaparra. I went .313 / .361 / .521 // .882 over 6,116 plate appearances, 78% from the shortstop position. Each of these rate stats are decidedly superior to, for instance, Cal Ripken, or for another instance, Robin Yount. I batted .357 in 1999 and followed that up with a .372 in 2000. Inflated era? Maybe, but both those numbers led the rest of the inflated-assed league. In 2002, I hit 56 doubles and 85 extra-base hits. I never quite won an MVP, but I accumulated 1.67 MVP shares. They used to call me a super shortstop. I am about to disappear quietly after one season on the ballot, getting 1.28% of the vote from the BBWAA and 0.00% from the CPFAA.

Bad breakup in Boston, missed out on the championship run.

Often injured after 2001, wouldn't play more than 122 games since playing in 156 in 2003 (hey kind makes me think of a guy the media members and certain segments of the fanbase seem to be hot and heavy for these days).

In fact, 2006 is really his only big year after leaving the Red Sox, his final AS appearance and appearance in MVP voting. While injuries are a factor in his decline, and his slash percentage numbers still stay consistent, it is easy to see why he's falling off.

Now, Carlos Delgado and Gary Sheffield I can see you building a case for why they shouldn't be "one and dones"

[Vic Sage]

were i to reconsider Smoltz/Mussina, it'd only be to drop Smoltz off my ballot, not to add Moose. To me, they are both on the J.Morris/Pettite/Schilling/K.Brown/Hershiser tier of borderline HOFers, without a clear mandate for any of them (i.e.,more Drysdale than Koufax), so it becomes a somewhat idiosyncratic task in choosing among them. For me, the difference is Smoltz' excellence as both a starter and closer. Winning a CY as a starter and then the Rolaids as a top closer is unique accomplishment. And then to be able to make the transition back to an effective starter at the end of his career? unprecedented accomplishment.

[Edgy MD]

Mussina was 270-153, 3.57 in an historically offensive era, with 83 WAR, according to BB-R's formula. He threw 3,562 innings and another 2/3 of a season of a post-season ball, going 7-8, 3.42. He consistently got 17-19 wins before finally winning 20 in his last season and then hanging it up, the first player to retire after a 20-win season since... Sandy Koufax.

Smoltz got 69.5 WAR, though BB-R probably undervalues relief pitching. What puts him over the top is probably his post-season record. While Mussina was solid to good, Smoltz, in 27 starts and 14 relief appearances, was great, going 15-4/2.67, with an additional four saves.

The difference in WAR is notable to me. But Smoltz's between Smoltz's post-season edge and my notion of relief being undervalued by WAR, I'd have to call them pretty close. They have a pretty similar class of comparables, with a lot of the same names appearing on both lists.

1. Curt Schilling (876)
2. Kevin Brown (867)
3. Jim Bunning (864) *
4. Luis Tiant (863)
5. Orel Hershiser (859)
6. Bob Welch (855)
7. Jim Perry (848)
8. Catfish Hunter (848) *
9. Billy Pierce (841)
10. Don Drysdale (841) *

1. Andy Pettitte (912)
2. Juan Marichal (866) *
3. David Wells (863)
4. Curt Schilling (860)
5. Jim Palmer (855) *
6. Carl Hubbell (855) *
7. Kevin Brown (844)
8. Tim Hudson (840)
9. Jack Morris (838)
10. CC Sabathia (837)

Most Similar to Smoltz	Most Similar to Mussina

Both lists are filled with borderline candidates, but I'd say Mussina's is a slightly stronger field of borderline candidates. And of course, the similarity scores don't account for era.

Funny that Mussina gets a handful of lefties on his list.

[metsmarathon]

if i look to JAWS as my metric of choice, i could make an argument that nomar garciaparra is a better hof candidate than carlos delgado and don mattingly, and also jeff kent, but not quite gary sheffield.

lets take a look, shall we?

JAWS basically averages the total WAR accumulated in a players career with his WAR accumulated during the peak 7-years of his career. we'll be using bbref's own WAR calculation here, though different WAR measures might yeild different results (because of course they do).

for his career, nomar accumulated 44.2 WAR, with 43 of those coming in his peak 7 years. his JAWS score is then 43.6. the average JAWS score for a hall of fame shortstop is 54.7. so nomar's JAWS is 79.7% of the average hall of famer at his primary position. not terrible at all, though not quite worthy of induction, to my mind. but it shouldn't wipe him clean from the ballot, either, in a fair system.

for comparison, carlos delgado has a career WAR of 44.3, and a WAR7 of 34.5, giving him a JAWS score of only 39.4. he's at only 72.7% of hte average hall of fame first baseman (54.2), though he does sit just ahead of don mattingly's 38.9 JAWS (71.8% of teh average HOF 1bman).

donnie baseball was on 8% of ballots last year. carlos delgado should get similar consideration, no? especially with far better offensive numbers. but it won't happen, will it?

moving further up the ballot, we see jeff kent. last year he was on 15% of the vote. he had a longer career than nomar, putting up bigger overall numbers, albeit with lesser rate stats. indeed, jeff kent's career WAR is 55.2, but his WAR7 is only 35.6, giving him a JAWS score of 45.4. better than nomar by a smidge. but the average hall of fame second baseman has a JAWS of 57, meaning jeff kent is only 79.6% of the average. again, not terrible. but equivalent to nomar. yet nomar might drop wholly free from the ballot, while kent might even get more votes.

gary sheffield has a similarly fine career WAR of 60.2, with a smallish WAR7 of 37.9. yep, at their respective peaks, nomar was a more valuable player than sheffield. but sheff certainly has the edge in longevity, and his JAWS is at 49. compared to the average outfielder's 58.1, he's a 84.3%. better than nomar. still, perhaps a bit shy of deserving consideration.

indeed, by this metric, a comparison between a player's JAWS and hte JAWS of the average hall of famer at the position, gary sheffield is 18th on the overly stuffed ballot.

lets look at the names ahead of him.

1. barry bonds 220.6%
2. roger clemens 167.2%
3. randy johnson 132.7%
4. mike piazza 118.8%
5. jeff bagwell 117.9%
6. pedro martinez 115.0%
7. alan trammell 105.1% (trammel's JAWS of 57.5 is just ahead of derek jeter's 57.0. how, again, is he not in yet?)
8. curt schilling 104.4%
9. tim raines 104.3%
10. mike mussina 103.2%
11. edgar martinez 101.8% (i'm not sure what his JAWS equivalency is; perhaps all HOF batters? his JAWS is at 56, and that compares to a positional average of 55.)
12. larry walker 100.9%
13. mark mcgwire 95.8%
14. craig biggio 93.7%
15. sammy sosa 87.8%
16. john smoltz 87.7% (he's being compared here to a full-time starting pitcher. the positional average for a starting pitcher is 61.8; for a reliever, its at 34.4. if you ran a weighted average of his time spent as a starter and his time spent as a reliever, his percentage would go up by a little. for instance, if i weight his JPOS by opponent plate appearances as a starter and a reliever, it drops to 59.7, giving him a 90.7%. weighting it by IP as a starter or reliever, it drops to 59.8 giving him a 90.7%, and if i quite favorbaly weight it by years as a starter or reliever, it drops to 56.6, giving him a 95.8%. still, a below average hall of famer, but by less than would be assumed just from comparing him to a starter.)
17. tom gordon 85.2% (i know, right? relievers. whaddayagonnado? gordon had a JAWS of 29.3, and reliever average 34.4 in the hall of fame. his score would drop if i accounted for his 203 games started, but i'm not in the mood to do more math.)
18. gary aforementioned sheffield 84.3%

oh what the heck, lets keep going. this is fun.

19. fred mcgriff 81.4%
20. nomar garciaparra 79.7%
21. jeff kent 79.6%
22. brian giles 75.9% (what? no way! he's really ahead of...)
23. lee smith 73.8%
24. carlos delgado 72.7%
25. don mattingly 71.8% (doesn't look so hot when you rank him this way, eh?)
26. darin erstad 53.3%

well, you get the idea. from here down, it's not so impressive.

[Edgy MD]

Raines gaining. Bagwell fading a little. Sosa and Sheffield escaping oblivion.

99.1 - R. Johnson
98.2 - P. Martinez
89.2 - Smoltz
83.8 - Biggio
79.3 - Piazza
������������
69.4 - Bagwell
63.0 - Raines
58.6 - Schilling
44.1 - Mussina
44.1 - Bonds
43.2 - Clemens
27.9 - E. Martinez
23.4 - Trammell
16.2 - McGriff
16.2 - Lee Smith
13.5 - Kent
9.0 - L. Walker
8.1 - Sheffield
6.3 - McGwire
5.4 - Sosa
������������-
2.7 - Mattingly
1.8 - Pete Rose (Write-In)
0.9 - Garciaparra
0.9 - Delgado

[Ceetar]

I'd like to argue that if write-ins for Pete Rose are actually be tabulated and not thrown out, you should be able to write-in 15 names if you wanted.

[Gwreck]

Write-ins are not actually tabulated.

[Edgy MD]

Mike Beradino, St. Paul Pioneer Press, somehow turned in this ballot.

Jeff Bagwell
Craig Biggio
Edgar Martinez
Mike Mussina
Mike Piazza
Tim Raines
Curt Schilling
John Smoltz
Alan Trammell
Larry Walker

This may be the guy using the style endorsed by batmagadan --- withholding votes for surefire winners like Martinez and Johnson in order to give them to candidates he likes but are getting lost in the shuffle (Martinez, Mussina, Raines, Schilling, Trammell, Walker).

[Ceetar]

Gwreck wrote: Write-ins are not actually tabulated.

right, but it's not like those ballots are thrown out for being invalid right?

[Gwreck]

It doesn't matter. If you check 10 boxes and also write "Pete Rose" on the bottom of the ballot, you voted for the 10 players whose boxes were checked.

Same thing if you check 10 boxes and also write "Easter Bunny" on the bottom of the ballot.

[Ceetar]

Gwreck wrote: It doesn't matter. If you check 10 boxes and also write "Pete Rose" on the bottom of the ballot, you voted for the 10 players whose boxes were checked. Same thing if you check 10 boxes and also write "Easter Bunny" on the bottom of the ballot.

so check 15 boxes. so write 15 names at the bottom. etc etc.

[A Boy Named Seo]

Edgy MD wrote: Mike Beradino, St. Paul Pioneer Press, somehow turned in this ballot. Jeff Bagwell Craig Biggio Edgar Martinez Mike Mussina Mike Piazza Tim Raines Curt Schilling John Smoltz Alan Trammell Larry Walker This may be the guy using the style endorsed by batmagadan --- withholding votes for surefire winners like Martinez and Johnson in order to give them to candidates he likes but are getting lost in the shuffle (Martinez, Mussina, Raines, Schilling, Trammell, Walker).

His vote was strategic, just as you and bats described which totally amplifies the flaws in the voting system.

[Guest Mets Guy in Michigan]

A Boy Named Seo wrote: Edgy MD wrote: Mike Beradino, St. Paul Pioneer Press, somehow turned in this ballot. Jeff Bagwell Craig Biggio Edgar Martinez Mike Mussina Mike Piazza Tim Raines Curt Schilling John Smoltz Alan Trammell Larry Walker This may be the guy using the style endorsed by batmagadan --- withholding votes for surefire winners like Martinez and Johnson in order to give them to candidates he likes but are getting lost in the shuffle (Martinez, Mussina, Raines, Schilling, Trammell, Walker). His vote was strategic, just as you and bats described which totally amplifies the flaws in the voting system.

It does, however, make it impossible for those surefire guys to be unanimous and makes it tougher for them to break Seaver's percentage for greatest percentage.

I'm appalled and happy at the same time.

[Guest Mets � Willets Point]

All of these candidates will be elected in 2019 alongside Jeter. Because he makes everyone beside him on the ballot better.

[Gwreck]

Ceetar wrote: so check 15 boxes. so write 15 names at the bottom. etc etc.

If you check more than 10 boxes, your ballot is invalid, no matter what else you write on the ballot. The instructions are to vote for up to 10. This is not complicated.

There is no room for write-in votes, and write-in votes are not counted, whether you submit an otherwise valid or an otherwise invalid ballot.

[bmfc1]

Tom Verducci stopped fellating Jeter and Torre long enough to vote and he didn't vote for Piazza.

[Gwreck]

Verducci found room on his ballot for both Jeff Kent and Fred McGriff.

[HahnSolo]

Mets � Willets Point wrote: All of these candidates will be elected in 2019 alongside Jeter. Because he makes everyone beside him on the ballot better.

Please. We'll all be sickened by the sheer volume of "Jeter should go in by himself" articles come 2019.

[Guest LeiterWagnerFasterStrongr]

Gwreck wrote: Verducci found room on his ballot for both Jeff Kent and Fred McGriff.

AND Bagwell. Which is big, because he's been a big no-PED-user guy. And a guy-with-an-outsized-esteem-of-his-own-analytic-abilities guy. And a guy-who-tries-to-coin-phrases-with-his-own-name-in-them-guy.

[Valadius]

What's stunning to me is how low Jeff Kent's percentage is after reading articles for years about the "future Hall-of-Famer". Then again, given the backloaded ballot that's entirely the writers' fault for being overly restrictive with their votes over about a decade, this is the outcome you get.

Updated: Jan 3: 8:00 ~ 127 Full Ballots ~ (22.1% of vote ~ based on last year) ~ As usual�BBWAA ballot digging is welcome!

99.2 - R. Johnson
97.6 - P. Martinez
89.8 - Smoltz
82.7 - Biggio
78.7 - Piazza
������������
70.9 - Bagwell
66.1 - Raines
56.7 - Schilling
42.5 - Mussina
42.5 - Bonds
41.7 - Clemens
27.6 - E. Martinez
22.8 - Trammell
18.9 - Lee Smith
15.7 - McGriff
14.2 - Kent
9.4 - L. Walker
8.7 - Sheffield
6.3 - McGwire
5.5 - Sosa
������������-
4.7 - Mattingly
1.6 - Pete Rose (Write-In)
0.8 - Garciaparra
0.8 - Delgado

[Edgy MD]

Seems to me like a good chance that Piazza falls out of the money. And that Pedro falls below the Seaver threshold.

I mean, two or three guys will turn in a blank ballot, right? And they won't be the ones to write a column about it beforehand.

[Ceetar]

At this part of the problem is these guys can't help but be compared to each other and it makes those fringier guys seem like not Hall guys because they're not Pedro and Bonds.

It's kinda funny, guys being punished for not hitting as well as Barry because it was an offensive era but Bonds himself being punished for hitting like that.

[Guest LeiterWagnerFasterStrongr]

Edgy MD wrote: Seems to me like a good chance that Piazza falls out of the money. And that Pedro falls below the Seaver threshold. I mean, two or three guys will turn in a blank ballot, right? And they won't be the ones to write a column about it beforehand.

Oh, certainly. Back of the envelope, I figure, Mikey's should probably be at least at 80 by the time publicized ballots stop rolling in; he and Bagwell lost something like 3-4 percent last time, and there always seems to be a big chunk of strange bubbling up from the unseen.

[Guest John Cougar Lunchbucket]

Marty Noble on MLB channel discussing his vote makes about the best case for radical changes required. He's like a demented nightclub doorman.

[G-Fafif]

I disagree with Marty's and others' call to not vote Piazza, but they're entitled to do as they see fit (the dopes). It's when Noble starts to explain his process -- which is essentially "these are Hall of Famers, these others aren't but maybe I'll look into these others next year" -- that I cringe. I appreciate the transparency but I think I'd be less alarmed or perhaps saddened if, when his ballot was revealed, he just said, "My pencil broke and I was able to check only three boxes. Gotta get a better pencil sharpener next year."

[MFS62]

I can understand how some voters feel that the Hall should be reserved for only the greats.
But, Howard Cosell used to say "He's the best there is at what he does". And if someone is the absolute best at his position during the time in which he played and compares favorably with the best of other eras, IMO he deserves induction. And Mike Piazza fits that description.

Later

[metsmarathon]

smoltz is getting massively overcompensated for his three years of seemingly stellar relief work.

i played a little game of what-if, and i still think he falls short of other pitchers on the ballot. namely schilling and mussina.

i think that part of what hte voters are doing is looking at his missing three years of starting, thinking how great a reliever he was, based on his save totals, and extrapolating htat out to imply that he would have been an even so very much stronger starting pitcher. i mean, look at his 2003! a 1.12 ERA! and 55 saves the year before! and 45 saves hte year after!

but he did it as a reliever. and i think it's really, really wishful thinking to think that he would have been the same pitcher as a starter those three years. especially in '03, he pounded hte strike zone like never before. and when he was again a starter, he still featured a somewhat reduced walk rate relative to his pre-relieving days, but not by as much as when he was a reliever. his k-rate and hr/9 also improved enough to indicate a change in pitching style, not necessarily ability. so again, i don;t htink it's fair to think that he would have had the same 1.12 ERA in his typical 250 innings as a starter, instead of the 64 relief innings he did throw in 2003.

what is perhaps fair to credit him for is a career year - in line with his cy young 1996 campaign. 2.94 ERA in 253 innings. good for a 7.3 WAR, per bbref.

so here's my approach. take smoltz's 2003 season, and credit him with 7.3 WAR as a starter instead of 3.3 WAR as a reliever. then, looking at his 2002 & 2004 seasons, i think of them as roughly equivalent. one has a better ERA, the other a better FIP. if i credit him with 5 WAR in each, tehy represent his 5th and 6th best seasons in his career. and based on my rough translation from starting to relieving, i think i'm being fair.

this gives him a total WAR of 79.3 (i'm also considering his 2001 as about a 3 WAR season for a starter, but that might be overly generous) and the sum of his top 7 seasons as 40.8. his JAWS would then be a generous 60.05, an improvement over his current 54.2, but still less than schilling and mussina, and slightly below an average hall of fame starting pitcher. on my prior scale, he would slot in as 13th best on the '15 ballot, with a score of 97.2%.

i'd probably have to make a few more stretches and happy assumptions before he overtakes either of those guys. basically, i'd have to fabricate another 3 WAR for him to catch mussina, and 4 WAR to catch schilling.

WAR isn't everything, of course. and while smoltz might make up a fair amount of the distance between he and mussina in postseason performance, schilling still has the edge there, too. (11-2, 2.23 ERA and a better WHIP and K/BB in 133 innings vs 15-4, 2.67 ERA in 203 innings).

by all rights, smoltz should be a hall of famer. but if we're taking turns, schilling should be ahead of him in line.

[Guest John Cougar Lunchbucket]

Ultimately, Smoltz is going in on the strength of a terrific narrative that the relieving plays a role in.

He's part of the Braves' Holy Trinity with Maddux & Glavine already in.

--PLUS--

He benefits as a result of the long-career-with-one-team glow, and for some reason EVERYONE remembers he was traded straight-up for Doyle Alexander as a minor leaguer. Traded guys who never again get traded/moved again are extra rare, I think.

Yes his relief might be overrated result wise but he relieved only because his injuries didn't allow him any other way to contribute. He was the most selfless Brave ever! Did we mention he never bolted for another club just because the money was good? He didn't! Y'know why? Cuz he's a WINNER that's why!

Can't overlook that Smoltz opposed Jack Morris in the THIS PROVES HE'S A HALL OF FAMER Game. He's closely associated with winners!

He is sort of the Reverse Eckersley: Very good as a starter, more than adequate as a reliever. The writers all love Eck for remaking his career: Smoltzie did it too, only he turned himself back! What a winner!

edit --

by all rights, smoltz should be a hall of famer. but if we're taking turns, schilling should be ahead of him in line.

I think his getting there then only helps Schill & Mussina. Two guys with way shittier narratives, by the way: Mussina an aloof guy who bolted his regional draftee team for the big $$. His departure can be seen as going out on top, but also carried a whiff of, lacking the guts to face a career downswing. Rightly or wrongly, his story is about taking the easy way out.

Schilling also chased $$ all his career, and also is the anti-Mussina in being too full of himself -- the dramatic Boston signing, the "bloody sock," etc. -- plus he seems to be a dickwad in real life (noted company failure, moronic political Twitter rube). Smotltz by contrast a beloved baseball spokesman for MLB TV.

[Vic Sage]

other views on how shafted Smoltz is by biased use of WAR and JAWS:

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/john-a-tures/biased-war-and-jaws-stats_b_6417496.html?ncid=txtlnkusaolp00000592