When you turn pro she'll let you know (2014 draft)

[Benjamin Grimm]

Why are all the true prodigies in high school? I don't think I've heard that before. Is it because the better players choose to start their professional careers sooner? I imagine that the lure of a big signing bonus would induce a lot of kids to opt out of going to college.

[batmagadanleadoff]

A review of the Mets' drafts under Sandy Alderson

By Chris McShane @chrismcshane on Jun 5 2014, 10:00am

Since Sandy Alderson took over as the Mets� general manager, 3,984 players have been picked in Major League Baseball�s Rule 4 draft. With relatively early first-round picks in each of those drafts, the Mets went with high school position players: outfielder Brandon Nimmo, shortstop Gavin Cecchini, and first baseman Dominic Smith. They�ve had two supplemental first round picks over those years, and with them, they took Kevin Plawecki out of college and Michael Fulmer out of high school. Mets vice president of player development and scouting Paul DePodesta, who came on board with Alderson, has worked with two scouting directors: Chad MacDonald, who held the position in 2011 but left for the Padres after the season, and Tommy Tanous, who has held it since MacDonald left. In its first three drafts, the front office has picked a high ratio of high school players. Of the 134 players the Mets drafted over the past three years, 57 came from college, 16 from junior college, and 64 from high school. That�s 47.8 from high school. For context, just 33.1 percent of the players taken in the last three drafts as a whole have been picked from that level. A very small percentage of players have been drafted without an affiliation with a school, though the Mets have not picked any of them. [fimg=522]http://cdn2.vox-cdn.com/assets/4568273/mets-drafts-2011-2013-level.png[/fimg] Alderson's front office has also drafted slightly more pitchers than the league as a whole. Of the Mets' 134 picks, 75 have been pitchers and the other 59 position players. [fimg=522]http://cdn2.vox-cdn.com/assets/4568265/mets-drafts-2011-2013-position.png[/fimg] None of the Mets� picks since 2011 have reached the big leagues yet, but given the high percentage of high school players they�ve taken, that�s not much of a surprise. In total, just 46 players�1.2 percent�drafted by all teams over the last three years have made a major league appearance. Of those players, fourteen have accumulated at least 1.0 bWAR. The standout from those drafts is a familiar name: Jose Fernandez, the Marlins� ace who just underwent Tommy John surgery but racked up 7.7 bWAR before doing so. But the draft is almost always an exercise in patience, even for the players who rise to the big leagues quickly. Of the players from the last three drafts to make it to the show so far, the vast majority were drafted in 2011. A smaller but still significant group were taken in 2012, but just two players from the 2013 draft have made it so far: Cleveland�s Kyle Crockett and Detroit�s Corey Knebel, both of whom have played just three games in the majors thus far. As for the Mets' top picks in recent drafts, let�s check in with Jeffrey Paternostro! Brandon Nimmo Nimmo was considered to be a high risk, high upside pick when he was selected in 13th overall in 2011. Although the tools profile has never quite lived up to his pre-draft billing, in his first full professional season he showed far more in-game polish than you would expect from a prep outfielder who didn't play high school baseball. A hand injury in 2013 depressed Nimmo's numbers, but he is healthy and mashing in St. Lucie this year. He features an extremely advanced approach and good pitch recognition skills and strike zone control. He has yet to really show a standout tool, but he projects out at solid-average or above across the board, and his eye at the plate makes the total package play up. The outstanding question with Nimmo is if he will develop much in the way of power, but he is a strong kid with some natural loft in his swing. He will also have to show he can handle more advanced pitching, but he could see the majors as soon as the middle of 2015 and projects as an above-average everyday center fielder. Gavin Cecchini Cecchini was a controversial pick in 2012. Seen as a low ceiling, 'safe' pick without a standout tool or much in the way of projection, Cecchini did little to quell the skeptics in his first two professional seasons. He also lost time to injuries in both Kingsport and Brooklyn, and when he did play, I really had to squint to see a major league shortstop. He has looked much better this year in Savannah. He is much stronger and can really drive the ball into the gaps off loud contact. He's not a premium athlete, but he should be able to stick at shortstop as he moves up the ladder. There's still a decent amount of risk here; Cecchini can't afford to lose much speed as he ages, but so far he is holding up his end of the bargain at the plate and in the field. He will probably play most, if not all, of 2014 in Savannah but could start to set his own timetable in 2015. Dominic Smith Smith was the only Mets prep bat under Alderson to get a Savannah assignment in his first full professional season. This is not particularly aggressive relative to other team's first round prep picks, but Smith was a particularly young high school pick and has just recently turned 19. Somewhat predictably, Smith has had his struggles against more advanced pitching. He often gets caught out on his front foot and makes weak contact. May has been much better for him than April, but he will likely spend all of the year in Savannah. Smith projects as an average/OBP-driven first baseman, but without a ton of power projection, at least in my eyes, he is going to have to hit a lot. Michael Fulmer Fulmer was given a more aggressive assignment track than Nimmo despite being picked after him in the supplemental first round in 2011. Assigned to Savannah in 2012, Fulmer showed a plus fastball that would touch 96 and the makings of a solid slider. He tore his meniscus at the end of spring training in 2013 and struggled to stay on the field, eventually being shut down with a shoulder issue, throwing only 46 innings in total. He returned healthy in 2014 but has had an up-and-down year. He's gone back to using his curveball, which projected as a plus pitch when he was drafted out of high school. Given his injury issues, dodgy fastball command, and current lack of a changeup, Fulmer may end up in the bullpen in the long term. If he is able to stay healthy and refine his offspeed arsenal, he still has a shot to be mid-rotation starter. Kevin Plawecki Plawecki has definitely played to the scouting report since he was taken in the supplemental first round in 2012. He projected as a good hitter with strong strike zone control but carried some defensive concerns behind the plate. He has hit at every level, using his natural strength and solid bat-to-ball skills to beat up minor league pitching. The walk rate has begun to erode in the upper levels, as Plawecki is very aggressive in the zone, but he makes a lot of contact and has started to hit for more power in 2014. The defense is still a question mark. Plawecki's arm is below-average. Part of it is he is stiff and mechanical getting out of his crouch, and part of it is just a lack of raw arm strength. His throws tend to lack zip and tail up and toward the runner. He has improved his receiving skills, but he struggles on balls in the dirt to either side. Plawecki's bat is ahead of his glove at this point, but that bat is good enough that you might be able to live with the defensive profile. Plawecki should get to Triple-A after the all-star break and might even earn a cup of coffee after rosters expand.

http://www.amazinavenue.com/2014/6/5/5780922/mets-draft-nimmo-smith-cecchini-depodesta-alderson-tanous

[Frayed Knot]

Benjamin Grimm wrote: Why are all the true prodigies in high school? I don't think I've heard that before. Is it because the better players choose to start their professional careers sooner? I imagine that the lure of a big signing bonus would induce a lot of kids to opt out of going to college.

Well, not ALL the true prodigies are in HS and there'll always be your late-bloomers and such. But many of those who are great from the git-go do tend to turn pro earlier so as to get a jump on both their careers and the money.
Of course if there are those kind of teenagers available who are without flaws or 'what-ifs' in their resumes then everyone else knows it all along too and those guys tend to be scooped before you ever get pick #10.

[Frayed Knot]

HS pitchers go 1 & 2
- LH Brady 'Don't Call Me Clay' Aiken to the Astros (4th #1 overall pick in a row)
- RH Tyler 'Don't Call Me Bonnie' Kolek to the Marlins
- Carlos Rodon, LHP out of NC State, the guy who was the presumed #1 overall much of the last year, goes 3rd to the White Sox

[Frayed Knot]

1 - Houston - Brady Aiken
2 - Marlines - Tyler Kolek
3 - White Sox - Carlos Rodon
4 - Cubs - Kyle Schwarber C/1B
5 - Twins - Nick Gordon (SS - brother of Dee on LAD, sons of longtime pitcher Tom 'Flash')
6 - Mariners - Alex Jackson C/OF
7 - Phils - Aron Nola, RHP LSU
8 - Rockies - Kyle Freeland, LHP, U of Evansville
9 - Blue Jays -
10 - Mets


So the Mets are sure to get one of the players they (supposedly) covet, Turner or Newcomb or Conforto

[Guest LeiterWagnerFasterStrongr]

College bat it is, and an uppercut-y one-- Conforto.

[Methead]

Love it.

[MFS62]

I'm happy.
Later

[Frayed Knot]

John Sickels sez:
10) Mets: Michael Conforto, OF, Oregon State University:
Regarded as the top hitter in college baseball this year by many experts, Conforto features impressive left-side power and a good feel for the strike zone, hitting .351/.506/.557 with 51 walks this year in 56 games. His other tools are nothing special but scouts don�t mind; his bat is that good, and he�s ranked as one of the safest, most advanced hitters in the draft.



I say, if he can hit, let's see if we can make a roster move to get him on the team by about the 7th inning tonight. We're going to need him.

[Zvon]

Looks good

[Frayed Knot]

BA chimes in:

Scouting report: While other college and high school position players have better all-around tools, Conforto ranks as the best present hitter in the 2014 draft. He has had a monster junior season for Oregon State, building off his first two seasons when he was an All-Freshman selection in 2012 and led the Beavers to Omaha in 2013. Listed at 6-foot-2, 217 pounds, Conforto has present strength and above-average bat speed. He has controlled his aggressiveness as a junior, taming a swing that got too big over the summer with Team USA. He�s become a more selective hitter, ranking second in the country in walks and first in on-base percentage while hitting .410 though the first week in May. After hitting 24 homers in his first two seasons combined, Conforto had just five thus far as a junior, giving some evaluators pause because he�s a bat-first player. He has plus raw power and should project to hit 20-25 annually. He also has improved his fringy outfield defense, which is seen as adequate for left field, with average arm strength that doesn�t always play. Conforto has shown playmaking ability with the glove, however, with show-stopper plays in the College World Series last year and key outfield assists in games against rival Oregon.
Twitter: @mconforto8



Doesn't say anything about whether or not HE CAN GET A FUCKING HIT WITH THE BASES LOADED!!!!!!!!

[Guest LeiterWagnerFasterStrongr]

Well, he may have been able to do so before, but he sure as hell won't now.

[Farmer Ted]

Conforto's mom is 3-time olympic gold medalist Tracie Ruiz. Synchronized swimming for the landlocked.

[Frayed Knot]

Turner & Newcomb wound up going 13th (Padres) & 15th (Angels)
Zimmer not until 21st to Cleveland

[Edgy MD]

Zvon wrote: Looks good

But enough about his mom.

[Benjamin Grimm]

Where is Conforto likely to be assigned? (Assuming they sign him, of course.) Brooklyn?

[Frayed Knot]

Benjamin Grimm wrote: Where is Conforto likely to be assigned? (Assuming they sign him, of course.) Brooklyn?

Yeah, I'd assume Brooklyn.
Picking up newly signed draft picks, plus other assorted extended ST holdovers, is essentially why those short-season leagues exist and, as an advanced college player, it's likely for him to skip over the lower ranked GCL & Appy circuits. And then we could be cynical (who ... US?) and bring up the whole Wilpon/Brooklyn connection and about how bringing the hot new name to their mini side-project by the boardwalk could be good for the ol' bottom line.




Draft picks up again today just after noon with pick #76
Mets pick next at 80

[Frayed Knot]

Conforto has been wearing #8 at Oregon State
I'd like (but don't expect) to see him continue that through the minors and right up to the big club

[Benjamin Grimm]

I'm on board with that.

[Edgy MD]

Farmer Ted wrote: Conforto's mom is 3-time olympic gold medalist Tracie Ruiz. Synchronized swimming for the landlocked.

Olympic Holla Famer, in fact.

[Vic Sage]

John Sickels sez: 10) Mets: Michael Conforto, OF, Oregon State University: Regarded as the top hitter in college baseball this year by many experts... he�s ranked as one of the safest, most advanced hitters in the draft.

Conforto ranks as the best present hitter in the 2014 draft

Thank you, Sandy.

[seawolf17]

I'm happy with the pick; I wish him the best. Welcome aboard, Mike.

[MFS62]

Hey, wait!
Oregon State?
Their mascot is the Beaver, same as the mascot for my college (CCNY).
We're practically mishpocha.

http://www.thefreedictionary.com/mishpocha


Now I like him even more.

Later

[seawolf17]

We just (sorta) traded athletic staff with Oregon State. Our Facilities/Operations guy just took a promotion to move there, and their Development guy just became our Athletics Director.

[Guest themetfairy]

Does that mean that you're claiming Conforto as a de facto Seawolf?

[Edgy MD]

Hopefully it means he gets the first interview.

[Edgy MD]

Mets take HS shortstop Milton Ramos round two. May be best defender of the class. You want to see him take batting and fielding practice? I guess you might!!

[youtube:tac7o3r3]D2DqiY4kwBU[/youtube:tac7o3r3]

[Edgy MD]

Milton Ramos is a 2014 SS/2B with a 6-2 165 lb. frame from Hialeah, FL who attends American Heritage Plantation HS. Slender live bodied athletic build, lots of room to get stronger. Did not run 60 but has run down to 6.53 in the past. Very smooth and clean defensive actions, plays with flair and creativity, especially good charging the ball and on the move, tends to get flat footed when laying back, fun player to watch play the infield. Right handed hitter, open stance with a leg raise load, foot doesn't always get down in time, short quick line drive swing, will expand the zone at times, aggressive hitter, tools to improve with additional strength. Good student, signed with Florida Atlantic.

[Frayed Knot]

With the eighty-fourth pick in the two thousand fourteen Major League Baseball draft, the New York Mets select short stop Milton Ramos, from the American Heritage School in Florida



5'11" 158lbs DOB: 10/26/95
Ramos is a smooth shortstop, considered by many evaluators to be the best defender in the Draft class. His plus speed helps give him above-average range. Thanks to his slick infield actions, soft hands and range, he has all the tools necessary to succeed at the position as a professional. Ramos' bat isn't as advanced as his glove. He is an aggressive hitter, and his compact swing allows him to spray line drives to all fields. He has minimal power now, but scouts expect him to develop some as he gets stronger. Ramos, who is committed to Florida Atlantic, earns praise for his high baseball IQ.

[Frayed Knot]

I like Edgy's scouting report where he's three inches taller than in mine (MLB.com)