First Base, 2014

[batmagadanleadoff]

I don't think the Mets can keep both Ike and Duda. They really are redundant, not only because they're similar offensive players, but because, mainly, they're first baseman. Duda can't play the outfield. Just can't. And, apparently, neither can Ike, now. Ike and Duda are less versatile than Eddie Kranepool. You've got two inconsistent left-handed exclusive first basemen, and given today's pitch count era with more roster slots taken up by pitchers and less bench players, it's inefficient to keep both. Putting Duda in the outfield is baseball suicide. The Mets really have to get rid of at least one of these, and if they keep one instead of none, hope that the keeper improves. That's all they can do. I also think it's likelier that the kept guy improves with more playing time. I disagree that Ike and Duda aren't competing. Or at least, I don't think Duda sees it that way. Duda sees himself as a first baseman -- therefore, Ike's taking away his playing time. According to Duda. That's really all there is to it. Who the Mets get for which of these two? How the hell would I know?

If the Mets keep both, then they're not trying to contend as much as they claim to. Not that I'm against a rebuild done right. Besides, only one team can win the World Series, and I've long ago given up the ghost about how the Mets, because of their big market competitive advantage, should be winning the WS more than once every 30 years or so. Accepting this makes rebuilds that much more tolerable.

[Benjamin Grimm]

This is from the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette, arguing that the Pirates should consider Ike Davis:

Bob Smizik: What price prospects? By Bob Smizik / Special to the Post-Gazette The suggestion posted yesterday that the Pirates should trade for a first baseman was not met with much enthusiasm. Many, if not most, readers did not want to part with a prospect for the first basemen mentioned: Ike Davis, Mitch Moreland or Justin Smoak. What is it about prospects that so fascinates baseball fans? How many of them have to fail before people come to grips with the fact they are not all sure things? In the course of the discussion, someone wanted to know what was the big deal about Davis? How about this: He hit 32 home runs in 2012. Or this: After a horrendous start in 2013, he had a .954 OPS in the second half of the season. Or that he�s younger than Jordy Mercer, younger than Pedro Alvarez and he has three more years of team control. How is that not better than Andrew Lambo, who seemed to be preferred over Davis? Some insisted on hoarding the Pirates treasure chest of stud pitching prospects. Which leads to this question: If there are so many, why not consider trading one of them for a guy who hit 32 home runs just one season ago? The fact some wanted nothing to do with Smoak only served to show the absurdity of this love affair with prospects. In 2009, Smoak was the No. 23 prospect in MLB, according to Baseball America. In 2010, he was No. 13. Which means some people don�t want to give up a good prospect, even if it�s for a player who once was a better prospect. Even if that better prospect, Smoak, had an .838 OPS vs. right-handed pitching last season, which would be his primary role with the Pirates in 2014. I have no idea how Davis, the No. 62 prospect in 2010, Smoak or Moreland would do with the Pirates. Any or all could fail miserably. Or not. I do know this: The Pirates are a contender and if they wish to capitalize on that status, it would behoove them to upgrade at first base. I�m not suggesting the Pirates give whomever the Mets, Rangers or Mariners would want for Davis, Moreland or Smoak. Of course, certain prospect would not be available. According to MLB.com, the Pirates have six top-100 prospects: Right-handed pitcher Jameson Taillon, 10; outfielder Gregory Polanco, 13; shortstop Alen Hanson, 40; outfielder Austin Meadows, 69; right-handed pitcher Luis Heredia 76; right-handed pitcher Tyler Glasnow, 97. Those players are off the board. Almost no one else is. Let�s keep in mind in discussing the Pirates' first base situation that there is no one on the horizon. The team�s so-called first baseman of the future was Alex Dickerson. He was traded to San Diego in November for outfielder Jaff Decker and right-handed reliever Miles Mikolas. So it�s not like trading for a first baseman would be blocking anyone. In fact, with no prospects close to being ready to help the Pirates at first base, it would seem trading for one would be a priority -- not an afterthought. One last point about trading for prospects. Dickerson was the Pirates No. 13 prospect, according to MLB.com, and he was traded for two minor leaguers the Padres did not have much use for. If the Pirates can trade No. 13 for a couple of borderline prospects, why not trade No. 9, right-handed pitcher Nick Kingham, for an MLB ready first baseman? Just yesterday, Keith Law of ESPN.com, one of the leading authorities on prospects, was asked in a chat about the possibility of trading Kingham, the Pirates fourth-ranked pitching prospect, for Davis: His answer: ''Not Kingham, of course.�� The Pirates have a mountain of right-handed pitching prospects -- also including Stolmy Pimentel, Brandon Cumpton and Clay Holmes -- and nary a first base prospect close to helping the team. To Law and to all of those afflicted with PSS (Prospect Separation Syndrome): Why not Kingham for Davis?

[batmagadanleadoff]

Did anyone know that Ike Davis led the NL in post All-Star Game OBP last season (.449)?

[batmagadanleadoff]

Did anyone know that Ike Davis led the NL in post All-Star Game OBP last season (.449)?

Rumor Roundup
Who Likes Ike?

by Daniel Rathman

excerpt:

Mets hunting for power arms in exchange for Ike Davis.... Since taking over the reins of the Mets in October 2010, general manager Sandy Alderson has done much of his best work on the trade market, exporting aging assets like Carlos Beltran and R.A. Dickey for high-end pitching prospects like Zack Wheeler and Noah Syndergaard. This offseason, Alderson is working with a much younger and less-accomplished trade chip, but when it comes to the return, he has mid-90s heat on his mind again. According to USA Today�s John Perrotto, Alderson asked his Pirates counterpart, Neal Huntington, for right-hander Nick Kingham during their discussions about Ike Davis. The market for the 26-year-old Davis grew clearer last week, when the Rays brought back James Loney on a three-year deal, leaving the Buccos and Brewers to vie for the Mets� first baseman. Davis buoyed his value by posting a league-high .449 on-base percentage in 204 plate appearances after the All-Star break, and while that gaudy mark was fueled in part by a .351 BABIP, the Arizona State product also sliced his strikeout rate and padded his walk rate considerably. Both are promising signs for Davis, who slugged 32 home runs in 2012 but has been exploited by pitchers able to find holes in his swing. Kingham ranked ninth on the Pirates� top 10 prospects list entering last season, earning a mid-rotation projection from Jason Parks, and proceeded to pitch well for both High-A Bradenton, where he fanned more than a batter per inning, and Double-A Altoona, where he logged a 2.70 ERA. Assuming his pre-2013 projection holds, the 2010 fourth-rounder could see time in a major-league rotation by 2015. A potential no. 3 starter about a year removed from the Show is a lofty asking price for Davis, and if Alderson has floated similar demands to other suitors, it might explain why no deal has materialized yet. Even though Loney and Justin Morneau have found new homes, there are still alternatives to Davis for clubs in need of first-base help....

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=22442

[Ceetar]

batmagadanleadoff wrote: Did anyone know that Ike Davis led the NL in post All-Star Game OBP last season (.449)?

yes. And that was after a 2 week 'slump' because he went a stretch where he was approaching .500

[Edgy MD]

Rumor Roundup wrote: Davis buoyed his value by posting a league-high .449 on-base percentage in 204 plate appearances after the All-Star break, and while that gaudy mark was fueled in part by a .351 BABIP, the Arizona State product also sliced his strikeout rate and padded his walk rate considerably. Both are promising signs for Davis, who slugged 32 home runs in 2012 but has been exploited by pitchers able to find holes in his swing.

I disagree with that, unless "holes in his swing" means "he can't hit the breaking pitch under his knees."

But that's a hole in most people's swing, and that's why it's a ball if you don't swing at it. The problem is that he chased continually in the first half and that was all anybody tended to throw him. In the second half, he came back with a new discipline, and laid off that crap. It was encouraging, but it remained to be seen what would happen when the pitchers adjusted. Would he be able to punish pitchers when they came back up to him? Would he fall back in the rut and start hacking at the low slider again when it became less common? It's a shame he got hurt.

[ashie62]

Davis...Smoak....and Moreland...

I felt like Smoak had the highest ceiling on arrival but he has been totally dreadful..

None will get a power arm in return...

[Edgy MD]

I'm not particular on the type of talent I would get, just hope for equal or better value or hoping the team holds.

[Edgy MD]

Looking at the movement to bring in Kendrys Morales, as expressed in another thread, I took the ten most comparable batters to Kendrys Morale (as per baseball-reference.com) through age 30 and put them up side-by-side with the ten most similar to to Duda through 27 and Davis through 26, and for each of the coming three years, the data favors Davis and Duda. While the bottom line offers nothing conclusive, it's conclusive enough to discourage me from investing tens of millions at first when deeper needs lie elsewhere.

While the Mets may not have a wealth of talent at first, Alderson's contention that he has a glut is correct, and the players in that glut certainly still have value, as weary as we may have grown of them.

And man, dividing by 10 is easy.

Morales

Rank	First Name	Last Name	Similarity Score	WAR at 31	WAR at 32	WAR at 33
1	Gordon	Coleman	960	-0.8	-0.2	0.0
2	Joe	Hauser	951	0.0	0.0	0.0
3	Paul	Sorrento	950	2.1	-0.5	-0.9
4	Reggie	Jefferson	947	0.0	0.0	0.0
5	John	Jaha	947	1.0	0.0	4.6
6	Eurbiel	Durazo	944	-0.3	0.0	0.0
7	Walt	Dropo	943	0.0	1.2	-0.5
8	Willie	Aikens	942	0.0	0.0	0.0
9	Mike	Jacobs	942	-0.2	0.0	0.0
10	Juan	Rivera	942	-0.3	0.5	-0.9
			Net	1.5	1.0	2.3
			Average	0.15	0.10	0.23

=#FF0000]Duda

Rank	First Name	Last Name	Similarity Score	WAR at 28	WAR at 29	WAR at 30
1	Bobby	Kielty	974	0.9	1.4	-0.2
2	Otto	Velez	968	2.9	1.4	0.9
3	Glenallen	Hill	967	1.4	1.1	2.0
4	Butch	Nieman	966	0.0	0.0	0.0
5	Tom	Grieve	965	1.3	-1.0	-0.3
6	Art	Shamsky	965	2.3	0.0	-0.1
7	Bobby	Oliver	964	-0.7	0.6	2.4
8	Walt	Bond	962	0.0	0.1	0.0
9	Karim	Garica	961	-0.7	0.0	0.0
10	Hal	McRae	961	3.9	1.9	4.6
			Net	11.3	5.5	9.3
			Average	1.13	0.55	0.93

=#0000FF]Davis

Rank	First Name	Last Name	Similarity Score	WAR at 27	WAR at 28	WAR at 29
1	Carlos	Pena	971	0.1	0.1	7.2
2	Tino	Martinez	964	4.5	2.1	5.1
3	Eric	Karros	962	3.9	1.4	0.9
4	Bob	Robertson	958	1.1	1.0	-0.8
5	Nick	Johnson	956	5.0	0.0	1.1
6	Justin	Smoak	947	0.0	0.0	0.0
7	Mike	Epstein	946	2.0	0.9	5.2
8	Willie Mays	Aikens	946	1.6	2.1	-0.7
9	Greg	Vaughn	946	6.7	1.3	-0.4
10	Glenn	Davis	939	4.2	4.4	2.2
			Net	29.1	13.3	19.8
			Average	2.91	1.33	1.98

[Edgy MD]

Also, he comes into the game as "Kendry," gets spectacuarly hurt and misses 1 2/3 seasons, and then comes back as "Kendrys"? that's a huge red flag there.

[Centerfield]

If all we are going to get is a fringe prospect, I'd rather keep Davis and see what he's got for one more year. Place Duda in AAA and see how Ike does.

If he sucks, cut him and call up Duda. If he's good, keep him and hope Duda raises his trade value while in AAA.

[Benjamin Grimm]

Centerfield wrote: If all we are going to get is a fringe prospect, I'd rather keep Davis and see what he's got for one more year. Place Duda in AAA and see how Ike does. If he sucks, cut him and call up Duda. If he's good, keep him and hope Duda raises his trade value while in AAA.

I think that makes sense. (I'd include Satin among the fallback options too.) The only thing is, I'd give Ike a lot less rope than he's received in the last two seasons.

[Edgy MD]

Well, the presence of Duda and Satin would certainly give them a much more ready pair o' fallback plans.

[Guest LeiterWagnerFasterStrongr]

Edgy MD wrote: Also, he comes into the game as "Kendry," gets spectacuarly hurt and misses 1 2/3 seasons, and then comes back as "Kendrys"? that's a huge red flag there.

HE'S KENDRY 2! THAT'S A CLONE, MOTHERFATHERS!

[ashie62]

Sandy was/is supposed to fix 1B.. Thus far its a fail..

SS also..

[Centerfield]

Benjamin Grimm wrote: Centerfield wrote: If all we are going to get is a fringe prospect, I'd rather keep Davis and see what he's got for one more year. Place Duda in AAA and see how Ike does. If he sucks, cut him and call up Duda. If he's good, keep him and hope Duda raises his trade value while in AAA. I think that makes sense. (I'd include Satin among the fallback options too.) The only thing is, I'd give Ike a lot less rope than he's received in the last two seasons.

Certainly on this. No way we can have him suck for an entire half-season. Especially in a season where we are hoping to be in the mix. I think if he goes 0 for April again, we can declare the Davis era officially over.

[Edgy MD]

Ashie62 wrote: Sandy was/is supposed to fix 1B.. Thus far its a fail.. SS also..

Sandy was/is supposed to improve his team and the organization around him.

[ashie62]

Edgy MD wrote: Ashie62 wrote: Sandy was/is supposed to fix 1B.. Thus far its a fail.. SS also.. Sandy was/is supposed to improve his team and the organization around him.

Granted..those two positions are not the whole team but I believe improvement from those two spots came from Sandy's mouth.

He noted SS..1B..OF..SP..C specifically...

He has nailed 2 for 5 that I see...

[nymr83]

Ashie62 wrote: Ashie62 wrote: Sandy was/is supposed to fix 1B.. Thus far its a fail.. SS also.. Sandy was/is supposed to improve his team and the organization around him. Granted..those two positions are not the whole team but I believe improvement from those two spots came from Sandy's mouth. He noted SS..1B..OF..SP..C specifically... He has nailed 2 for 5 that I see...

I'll judge him by the product on the field and the direction the team seems to be headed. I'd be happy if he doesn't fill a specific position at any cost just because he said at some point that we needed it.

[Benjamin Grimm]

Adam Rubin wrote: Can anyone say awkward? Mets insiders now expect Ike Davis will be in spring training with the team in Port St. Lucie, Fla. -- while cautioning they are willing to reengage the Pittsburgh Pirates or Milwaukee Brewers or any other club in search of a first baseman in trade talks in the six weeks before pitchers and catchers report on Feb. 15. Sources add that Davis genuinely does want to remain with the Mets. Of course, there is a difference between Davis coming to spring training and making it all the way to Opening Day. Another team could have an injury during spring training and need to acquire a first baseman. Or, a team like the Pirates -- who recently traded for Triple-A first baseman Chris McGuiness -- could become dissatisfied with their internal options during spring training and resume speaking with the Mets. Mets officials largely project Lucas Duda as having the better long-term potential, but are not averse to Davis being the first baseman in 2014. If both players were on the Opening Day roster, there technically would be a first-base competition during spring training. Still, Davis likely would get the bulk of the early season duty. After all, while Duda has significant home-run potential, Davis has hit 32 homers in a season as recently as 2012. A surplus at the position is viewed as a good problem to have by team officials. Davis, who is eligible for arbitration, is projected to earn $3.825 million this season. Duda, also eligible for arbitration, should earn about $1.8 million.

[Edgy MD]

Shouldn't really be anything awkward about it.

Ruby can be weird about drama.

[Ceetar]

Edgy MD wrote: Shouldn't really be anything awkward about it. Ruby can be weird about drama.

he's hardly the first place to have trade talks surface and not be traded. Or to have bad things said about him and not be traded.

And 'bulk of the early season time' is silly because A. I doubt Collins has decided on 2 weeks worth of Spring Training line ups in early January, and B. with split squads and the general 3-4 innings played early on, there's plenty of time for Ike, Duda, Satin and a score of others.

[Edgy MD]

Sandy, welcoming players to camp: Great to see you, Ike! How you feeling?

Ike: I hate you and your ASS FACE!

Sandy: Whoah, hey. Maybe we just step over here and talk.

Ike: I can't believe... that just came out like that. I'm just... (HUGE heaving sobs.)

(Sandy hugs Ike awkwardly. Nods over Davis's shoulder to Dykstra to get out on the field and start fielding grounders at first.)

[Guest Mets Guy in Michigan]

Metsblog today says the teams that were talking to the Mets expect the team to release him in spring training to save on the salary, and they'll just pick him up then without having the give up a prospect.

[Vic Sage]

why on earth would they just release him? It's not like production by Duda and Satin have made Ike irrelevant... those guys haven't produced much either, and neither has shown the ability to date to hit 32 HRs and drive in 90r in the majors. And its not like we'd lose Duda if we just sent him down; he has options. I don't know what the baseball rationale is for a move like this. It seems to me that cutting Ike for nothing to anoint Duda and save $3m would be an indicator of a larger systemic problem.

[metsmarathon]

but... isn't the contract guaranteed...? or is it only if he's on a major league roster at the start of the season?

[Edgy MD]

Guaranteed if he's with the team past a certain date.

Do we know what he's projected to make? More like $4 million, right?

If he gets released, it's likely to be at the end of spring training, when his performance will have influenced the calculus in the decision.

[Guest John Cougar Lunchbucket]

Yeah I don';t believe they'd release him either. He's not Jason Bay.

I still think Ike's going in a trade, and that trade will be a whopper with cheese.

[batmagadanleadoff]

metsguyinmichigan wrote: Metsblog today says the teams that were talking to the Mets expect the team to release him in spring training to save on the salary, and they'll just pick him up then without having the give up a prospect.

It's the rich exploiting the poor.

[Guest Mets Guy in Michigan]

Maybe the idea is to release him and save the money, which then can be spent on Drew.