GREETINGS! -- aka: the draft thread 2013

[Guest John Cougar Lunchbucket]

A Boy Named Seo wrote: "Sandy, explain your thought process behind this pick at #11." "Our game plan, as always, has been to get some fucker who can hit, and we felt he was best hitting fucker available, so we jumped at the chance to nab this fucker."

lolol

[Vic Sage]

i've never heard Alderson be so articulate and insightful.

[Frayed Knot]

Vic Sage wrote: just get some fucker who can hit please!

aka: The Motherfucker with the Bat

[Ceetar]

I just hope they draft someone good. This 2017 team should be real good!

[Guest LeiterWagnerFasterStrongr]

RUNNING NEEDS LIST:
Motherfuckers who can hit
Best MF Available
Real Good Motherfuckers

[Frayed Knot]

Ceetar wrote: I just hope they draft someone good.

They're all good NOW. The trick is to figure out which ones are going to be good later on.



A quick history on #11 picks:

When the Mets pick 11th overall this year it�ll be the 49th #11 overall pick (not surprisingly seeing how this is the 49th amateur draft) and the first time that the Mets have had this specific pick over that span.

Of the previous 48

* 27 from HS, 21 from college
* 20 were pitchers, 28 position players

* 17 of those 48 failed to reach the majors, although that number includes the four most recent choices who all still could reach at some point in the near future.
So a more accurate ratio now stands at 31 successes vs 13 failures if you�re using making the show, however breifly, as your success/failure standard although you'd want something a bit better than just making the majors out of your 11th overall pick.

* Of the 26 position players (not counting the recent two) 17 reached the >100 games played mark which the post that opened this thread used as the standard between success and failure. Of course that standard was being applied to all Top-100 picks so you�d certainly want this ratio to be much better and it is with 65% of the picks reaching that mark as opposed to 38%

* Using the >10 career WAR standard (again, position players only) as the definition of "Impact� players we find 4 players (15%), only somewhat higher than the 1-in-8 mark found by BA for all Top-100 position player picks but, again, maybe more to come.

Best picks by WAR in a career (with McCutcheon obviously still active):
Greg Luzinski -- 1968 Phillies -- 26.1
Shane Mack -- 1984 Padres -- 21.6
Andrew McCuthchen -- 2005 Pirates -- 21.4
Walt Weiss -- 1985 A�s -- 16.5
Max Scherzer -- 2006 Diamondbacks -- 13.0
Shawn Estes -- 1991 Mariners -- 11.1

[Frayed Knot]

Other legacies eligible for this year's draft:

Nick Bando C/RHP San Diego Christian JC -- Father is former MLB catcher Chris Bando; uncle is former MLB third baseman Sal Bando

Brantley Bell SS Mountain Pointe HS, Phoenix -- Father is former MLB infielder Jay Bell

Cody Bellinger 1B Hamilton HS, Chandler, Ariz. -- Father is former MLB infielder Clay Bellinger

Cole Bieser OF Southeast Missouri State -- Father is former MLB outfielder and current Southeast Missouri State head coach Steve Bieser

Luke Borders 3B Winter Haven (Fla.) HS -- Father is former MLB catcher Pat Borders

Rafael Bournigal SS Lakeland (Fla.) Christian HS -- Father is former MLB shortstop Rafael Bournigal

Alex Boyd RHP/SS Rancho Buena Vista HS, Vista, Calif. -- Uncle is former MLB pitcher Oil Can Boyd

Gunnar Buhner 2B Mount Si HS, Snoqualmie, Wash. -- Father is former MLB outfielder Jay Buhner

Austin Cangelosi SS Sandburg HS, Orland Park, Ill. -- Father is former MLB outfielder John Cangelosi

Kacy Clemens RHP Memorial HS, Houston -- Father is 11-time all-star pitcher Roger Clemens

Mijon Cummings OF Steinbrenner HS, Tampa -- Father is former MLB outfielder Midre Cummings

Cody Dent OF Florida -- Father is former MLB all-star Bucky Dent

Luke Farrell RHP Northwestern -- Father is former MLB pitcher and Red Sox manager John Farrell

Bobby Geren C Princeton -- Father is former MLB catcher and manager Bob Geren

Austin Grebeck OF Mater Dei HS, Santa Ana, Calif. -- Father is former MLB shortstop Craig Grebeck

Seth Greene RHP Virginia Commonwealth -- Father is former MLB pitcher Tommy Greene

Chad Hockin RHP Damien HS, La Verne, Calif. -- Grandfather is Hall of Famer Harmon Killebrew

Torii Hunter Jr. OF Prosper (Texas) HS -- Father is nine-time Gold Glove outfielder Torii Hunter

Alex Jones 3B Pell City (Ala.) HS -- Father is former MLB pitcher Todd Jones

Kevin Kuntz SS Kansas -- Father is former MLB outfielder and Royals first base coach Rusty Kuntz

Adam Law 2B Brigham Young -- Father is former MLB all-star infielder Vance Law; grandfather is 1960 Cy Young award winner Vern Law

Dylan Manwaring 3B Horseheads (N.Y.) HS -- Father is former MLB catcher Kirt Manwaring

Blaise Maris C St. Francis Caholic HS, Gainesville, Fla. -- Grandfather is Yankees legend Roger Maris

Jacob May OF Coastal Carolina -- Grandfather is former MLB outfielder Lee May;

Dillon Moyer SS UC San Diego -- Father is former MLB pitcher Jamie Moyer

Preston Palmeiro 1B Heritage HS, Frisco, Texas -- Father is four-time all-star first baseman Rafael Palmeiro

Josh Pettitte RHP Deer Park (Texas) HS -- Father is Yankees lefthander Andy Pettitte

Ryan Plantier OF Cornell -- Father is former MLB first baseman Phil Plantier

Cal Quantrill RHP Trinity College School, Port Hope, Ont. -- Father is former MLB pitcher Paul Quantrill

Manny Ramirez Jr. OF IMG Academy, Bradenton, Fla. -- Father is 12-time all star outfielder Manny Ramirez

Elijah Rodriguez 2B Grand Street Campus HS, New York -- Father is former MLB pitcher Frankie Rodriguez

Dalton Saberhagen LHP Tennessee -- Father is former MLB pitcher Bret Saberhagen

Lukas Schiraldi RHP Navarro (Texas) JC -- Father is former MLB pitcher Calvin Schiraldi

JaVon Shelby SS Tates Creek HS, Lexington, Ky. -- Father is former MLB outfielder John Shelby

Kevin Stenhouse OF Rhode Island -- Grandfather is former MLB pitcher Dave Stenhouse; father is former MLB outfielder Mike Stenhouse

Wes Torrez RHP Jacksonville -- Father is former MLB pitcher Mike Torrez

J.D. Underwood RHP Palm Beach State (Fla.) JC -- Father is former MLB pitcher Tom Underwood

Ben Verlander OF Old Dominion -- Brother is Tigers pitcher Justin Verlander

Chad Wallach C Cal State Fullerton -- Father is former MLB third baseman Tim Wallach

Brodie Weiss SS Regis Jesuit HS, Aurora, Colo. -- Father is former MLB shortstop and Rockies manager Walt Weiss

Cody Yount OF Virginia Commonwealth -- Father is former MLB pitcher Larry Yount; uncle is Hall of Famer Robin Yount

[Benjamin Grimm]

I have no recollection of "Larry Yount".

[Edgy MD]

As he played all of one game, that's to be expected. But he appears to have gotten hurt warming up and never faced a batter.

[Edgy MD]

The Wik wrote: Lawrence King "Larry" Yount (born February 15, 1950 in Houston, Texas) is a former professional baseball player. Yount (whose younger brother is Hall of Famer Robin Yount) holds the unique distinction of being the only pitcher in Major League Baseball history to appear in the official record books without ever actually having faced a batter. In his only major league appearance on September 15, 1971, he had to leave the game during his warm-up pitches due to injury.

[Benjamin Grimm]

Wow. Family gatherings must be kind of awkward.

"Well, Larry, I had a long career, 3000 hits, and ended up in Cooperstown."

[Zvon]

Benjamin Grimm wrote: Wow. Family gatherings must be kind of awkward. "Well, Larry, I had a long career, 3000 hits, and ended up in Cooperstown."

"Well, Robin, I have a real mans name."

[Frayed Knot]

There are a couple other legacies in this coming draft that I didn't list -- by the time they included every brother, nephew, and celebrity relation (Jamie Foxx's nephew for instance) it was a LONG list.
One is a kid out of the Citadel in South Carolina named Joe Jackson who is listed as "a distant relation" of Shoeless Joe. There was another 'distant relation' type named Cameron Berra

[Edgy MD]

I'm fascinated by the Berra clan. Yogi being a short, squat, and homely catcher, you'd think he'd be the epitome of the "good ballplayer, but no athlete" tag, but he ended up siring a big league shortstop and an NFL wideout. How many fathers can claim as much success in athletic breeding?

[Frayed Knot]

Yogi himself was a terrific athlete despite the odd looks and non-classic build.
Some of the stories from his amateur days were probably enhanced by the old 'big-fish/small-pond' situation but I remember hearing about how he was the best football player in his town, a real good soccer player (remember that a lot of Italian immigrants formed some good, by US standards, teams in those days), and had an excellent amateur boxing stint.

[batmagadanleadoff]

Mets Fun with the 11th pick:
_____________________


Top stats to know: The No. 11 pick
By Mark Simon | ESPNNewYork.com

The Mets pick No. 11 in the 2013 MLB Draft tonight, so we offer up a list of five stats releated to that selection. 1-- From 1980 to 2008, there were 29 players selected No. 11 overall. Of those, 21 made the major leagues. That equates to a 72 percent reaching-the-majors rate. For comparison, the No. 9 and No. 10 pick are 49-for-58 (84 percent) in that span. The No. 12 pick and No. 13 picks are a combined 39-for-58 (67 percent). In all, that comes out to the ninth through 13th picks having about a 75 percent history of reaching the majors. 2-- The last time the Mets had a pick in the top 11, they hit the jackpot, taking Matt Harvey with the No. 7 pick in the 2010 Draft. The time prior to that, they landed Mike Pelfrey with the No. 9 pick of the 2005 Draft. In fact, the last seven times the Mets have had a Top-11 pick, they�ve taken a pitcher. Their last position-player selection in the top 11 was Preston Wilson (Mookie�s stepson) in 1992. Wilson would eventually net the Mets Mike Piazza in trade. 3-- There is nothing predictive in this stat, it�s just an odd quirk: There have only been six players drafted No. 11 overall to record at least 10 Wins Above Replacement in their careers. If you look at the history of the first 22 picks in the MLB Draft, the No. 11 pick ranks tied for the weakest in terms of 10-WAR players, and worst in terms of the average Wins Above Replacement for those players who did make the majors (4.4 WAR). The best No. 11 pick in terms of overall production is Greg Luzinski (26.1 WAR), though he'll soon be replaced by Andrew McCutchen (21.3). The top pitcher is Max Scherzer (13.1 WAR) 4-- Though Keith Law has the Mets taking a high school prospect�Domonic Smith-- some reports have the Mets targeting a college position player with their first pick. They�ve drafted 10 college position players with a first-round pick previously with mixed success. Their three most successful ones in terms of major-league production were Jeromy Burnitz (1990), Jay Payton (1994), and Hubie Brooks (1978). 5-- The Mets have had different strategies in Sandy Alderson/Paul De Podesta�s first two drafts. In 2011, their first two picks were high school players (Brandon Nimmo and Michael Fulmer), but seven of their next eight were four-year college players). In 2012, the Mets went with more of an even split�- five high school players (including top pick Gavin Cecchini), four four-year college players, and one junior college player. Multiple studies have gone over whether pursuing college players is better than drafting high school players (opinions vary), one of the most recent of which can be found here.

http://espn.go.com/blog/new-york/mets/post/_/id/68706/top-stats-to-know-the-no-11-pick

[batmagadanleadoff]

ESPN's Matt Meyers two-parter on the Mets and the draft:

Is there a draft in here? Part 1
June, 5, 2013 Jun 5 12:03PM ET By Matt Meyers | ESPNNewYork.com

If, while walking across Shea Bridge, you asked the average fan why the Mets are in their current predicament, there�s a good chance the response would include an expletive and the words �Wilpon� and �Madoff.� More than anything else, the club�s financial constraints, caused by ownership's involvement in the ill-fated Ponzi scheme, are seen as the reasons why the Mets are in midst of what seems like an endless rebuilding cycle. Problem is, that theory doesn�t hold water. In fact, there is a very simple explanation for why the Mets, for lack of a better word, stink: the amateur draft -- this year's version of which begins Thursday night. For some reason, fans seem to think that you can build a winning team via free agency. Once upon a time, that may have been true, and the 2009 Yankees, who won the World Series after signing CC Sabathia, Mark Teixeira and A.J. Burnett, are the last good example. However, MLB clubs -- both big- and small-market -- are much smarter about locking up their top talent before it hits the market, which means having lots of moolah to spend in the offseason doesn�t really mean that much anymore. Exhibit A is the 2012 Marlins, Exhibit B is the 2012 and 2013 Angels. Both of those teams �won� the offseason with major free-agent signings and have nothing to show for it. In fact, both organizations are in much worse shape today than they were on the final day of the 2011 season. Since most guys are already past their prime by the time they reach free agency, the only way to acquire elite players is by drafting them, signing them as international free agents or trading for them. (But you need players from the first two groups to do much trading.) As David Schoenfield noted recently, the last time the Mets drafted a player who appeared in an All-Star Game was Scott Kazmir, back in 2002. Of course, he didn�t appear in the ASG until after being traded to Tampa Bay for basically nothing. The last player the Mets drafted who appeared in the Midsummer Classic in orange and blue is David Wright, a supplemental first-rounder in 2001. Wright�s success is a perfect demonstration of the misunderstanding of the Mets� woes. See, spending money has never been the Mets� problem. For years and years the pre-Madoff Mets threw money at free agents, just the wrong ones. In fact, some of the best moves the Mets made in recent years were free agent signings they didn�t make. The club dodged a bullet when the Giants outbid them for Barry Zito, and an even larger one when Mike Hampton chose Colorado�s dollars over theirs. As a bonus, the Mets received a supplemental draft pick when Hampton signed with the Rockies, which they used to draft Wright, only the most accomplished position player in franchise history. After Wright, it wasn�t until getting Matt Harvey in the 2010 that Mets drafted another player who looks like a real cornerstone, while whiffing on first-round picks time and again. (Remember Nathan Vineyard, the Mets� supplemental first-rounder in 2007? Problaby not, as he only pitched in two games above rookie ball.) Meanwhile, they wasted dollars on all sorts of free agents who failed to live up to their contracts -- K-Rod, Wagner, Castillo, Alou, Bay, Perez etc -- while their competitors built from within. Look at the best teams in the National League -- their foundation came via the draft. The Reds with Votto, Bruce, Bailey and Frazier. The Cardinals with Molina, Miller, Craig and Jay. The Braves with Freeman, McCann, Heyward, Simmons, Medlen, Kimbrel and Minor. Yes, these teams have spent money on free agents (or traded prospects for veterans to supplement their rosters), but only did that once they had a foundation built from within. Players' salaries are controlled for the first six years of their career, so if you can develop your own players you have the flexibility to spend when you need to fill a hole or two. And you also have the leverage to sign the best players to below-market long-term deals well in advance of free agency, which the Reds did with Votto and Cards did with Molina. Look at how the Mets operated for most of the past decade -- they spent a lot more on free agents than any other NL team and have nothing to show for it but one division title and a lot of disappointment. Want to know why they are unwatchable right now? It�s because they went seven years without drafting anyone who resembles an All-Star. (In Part 2 on Thursday, I�ll explain why the Mets' drafting has been so bad.)

http://espn.go.com/blog/new-york/mets/post/_/id/68626/is-there-a-draft-in-here-part-1

Is there a draft in here? Part 2
June, 6, 2013 Jun 6 11:02AM ET By Matt Meyers | ESPNNewYork.com

On Wednesday, I explained that the Mets� problems have a lot more to do with poor drafting than Bernie Madoff. The short version is as follows: There once was a time when big-market clubs could count on top young players hitting the market in their late 20s, but when you see the Reds and Rays locking up Joey Votto and Evan Longoria, respectively, you know that is no longer the case. To win, you have to build from within, which means drafting well. So why have the Mets been so bad in the draft over the past decade? It boils down to three reasons. 1. Punting draft picks The rules regarding free agency and draft picks have changed a bit over the years, but you have always run the risk of forfeiting a draft pick when you sign elite free agents. (Under the new CBA these are players who received a qualifying offer.) For years the Mets gave away first-round picks to sign free agents, many of whom simply were not worth it. They gave up a first-round pick in 2006 to sign Billy Wagner, in 2007 for Moises Alou and in 2009 for Francisco Rodriguez. If you�re giving up top picks you have a much lower chance of adding elite, cost-controlled talent to your organization. It�s one thing if you are adding a perennial All-Star in his prime, but in those instances the Mets gave up top picks for two relievers and a 40-year-old outfielder who played in a total of 102 games over the life of his two-year deal. That�s just bad business. Fortunately, the Mets seemed to have wised up in this regard. If you recall, they refused to sign Michael Bourn over the winter because they would have had to sacrifice the No. 11 overall pick to do it. As nice as a player as Bourn is, he would not have made this team a contender, and the player the Mets get at that spot on Thursday is probably going to be much more valuable to the future of the club than Bourn would have been. 2. Going cheap Oddly, even though the Mets were willing to pay through the nose for free agents such as Wagner, K-Rod and Jason Bay, they were among a group of teams that included the White Sox, Padres and Astros that were notorious for their unwillingness to spend big on the draft. For whatever reason -- most assumed it was the Wilpon�s cozy relationship with Bud Selig -- the club frequently refused to significantly exceed MLB�s bonus recommendations. This often meant missing out on blue-chip talent at the top of the draft as well as players who may have slid due to bonus demands. A perfect example is 2004, when the Mets had the No. 3 overall pick. That year, Jered Weaver and Stephen Drew were both seen as two of the top talents in the draft, but both were advised by Scott Boras and were demanding big bonuses. Many clubs were scared off by their demands -- this is how the Padres ended up taking Matt Bush at No. 1 overall -- and the Mets were no different. Weaver fell to the Angels at No. 12 and Drew to the Diamondbacks at No. 15 and held out for almost a year before signing just ahead of the 2005 draft for $4 million each. Philip Humber, whom the Mets took at No. 3, signed for $3 million. That�s a difference of $1 million, or roughly 1/16 of what the Mets are paying Jason Bay not to play for them this year. Per wins above replacement, Weaver and Drew are the second- and third-most valuable players in that class, trailing only Justin Verlander, the No. 2 overall pick. Funny thing is, the Mets did have some success when they went above slot in later rounds, most notably signing Jonathon Niese, a seventh-rounder in 2005, for fourth- or fifth-round money. Of course, his bonus was $175,000, not the kind of dollars that will cause too big of a stir in the commissioner�s office. The spending issue is somewhat moot under the new CBA, as teams have a spending cap and will incur harsh penalties if they exceed it, but the Mets were one of the only teams willing to play by the old rules, and it cost them. 3. Bad luck To be fair to previous Mets management, there were a few top picks that didn�t pan out that were probably just bad luck. While Weaver and Drew were considered better prospects, Philip Humber was far from a reach at No. 3 that year. The same can be said of Lastings Milledge (No. 12, 2003) and Mike Pelfrey (No. 9, 2005). Humber was part of the Johan Santana trade, Milledge was considered a top prospect until he got to the majors while Pelfrey was a serviceable starter for a couple of years. Of course, when you pick in the top 12 for three straight seasons and have nothing to show for it, that�ll sting. (Santana�s no-hitter was nice, but there�s a strong argument to be made the Mets would be better off now had they not made that trade. They�d have Carlos Gomez, a lot more payroll flexibility and just as many playoff appearances.) The good news for the Mets is that the draft has been kinder in recent years (Matt Harvey, FTW), and the Sandy Alderson regime seems focused on building from within. A cynic could say, �what choice does he have,� but the fact of the matter is that teams don�t build World Series winners through free agency anymore. So pay attention to the draft, starting tonight, because the club�s future depends on it.

http://espn.go.com/blog/new-york/mets/post/_/id/68709/is-there-a-draft-in-here-part-2

[HahnSolo]

Mijon Cummings OF Steinbrenner HS, Tampa -- Father is former MLB outfielder Midre Cummings

Somehow the biggest WTF of this entry is not the name "Mijon". Steinbrenner HS, are you kidding me?

[Edgy MD]

My team DID NOT refuse to sign Michael Bourn in order to preserve their rights to draft a product of George F. Steinbrenner High School.

[MFS62]

Edgy MD wrote: My team DID NOT refuse to sign Michael Bourn in order to preserve their rights to draft a product of George F. Steinbrenner High School.

That would be as offensive as (fill in the blank(.

Later

[metsmarathon]

i'm not so sure i share the alternate reality view that the mets would have been better off not trading for santana.

the would be better off TODAY having kept cargo and not gotten santana (assuming of course that all other things unfolded the exact same way), but cargo took forever to develop. i'm certain he would have been ridden out of town well before he finally broke out last year.. and even last year, his obp was barely above 0.300. resigning a player like that...? really?

[Edgy MD]

Yeah, but $$$. Even today, walk down to payroll at CitiField and Johan's is the first and biggest check they have to write.

[Frayed Knot]

Oddly, even though the Mets were willing to pay through the nose for free agents such as Wagner, K-Rod and Jason Bay, they were among a group of teams that included the White Sox, Padres and Astros that were notorious for their unwillingness to spend big on the draft. For whatever reason -- most assumed it was the Wilpon�s cozy relationship with Bud Selig -- the club frequently refused to significantly exceed MLB�s bonus recommendations. This often meant missing out on blue-chip talent at the top of the draft as well as players who may have slid due to bonus demands. A perfect example is 2004, when the Mets had the No. 3 overall pick. That year, Jered Weaver and Stephen Drew were both seen as two of the top talents in the draft, but both were advised by Scott Boras and were demanding big bonuses. Many clubs were scared off by their demands -- this is how the Padres ended up taking Matt Bush at No. 1 overall -- and the Mets were no different. Weaver fell to the Angels at No. 12 and Drew to the Diamondbacks at No. 15 and held out for almost a year before signing just ahead of the 2005 draft for $4 million each. Philip Humber, whom the Mets took at No. 3, signed for $3 million. That�s a difference of $1 million, or roughly 1/16 of what the Mets are paying Jason Bay not to play for them this year. Per wins above replacement, Weaver and Drew are the second- and third-most valuable players in that class, trailing only Justin Verlander, the No. 2 overall pick.

This argument has come to be a favorite of writers over recent years. Problem is it's only partially true to begin with and usually not in the way they think.

In the "often meant missing out on blue-chip talent at the top of the draft" quote I like how the word "often" is followed by ONE example which isn't surprising really since it's the only one and even that was is largely hindsight. Weaver was coming off a terrific season in college but there was NOT a consensus that he was the best pitcher in the draft that year with many touting Rice University's 'Big Three' (Humber, Niemann & Wade Townsend who went 3rd, 4th, & 8th ) as better bets in the long run. That it didn't happen that way isn't the same thing as saying it was obvious at the time. It also ignores the fact that the Mets have dealt with Boras in the past (both for amateurs & ML talent) and have gone "over-slot" for some of those picks (Pelfrey for one). Touting Drew & Weaver as clear better choices who were only passed over for money reasons is classic after-the-fact "proof" backed with nine years of hindsight.

Where the Mets did show a propensity to "cheap-out" on the draft was by not reaching in later rounds for athletic HS-types who could be good some day but could command more money than their draft slot indicated due to having college scholarship in their back pocket (often for football or basketball as well as baseball). Draft money isn't always based on talent, bargaining power through other options plays a role as well so who got more money doesn't necessarily prove who was considered the better talent.
Players like those miss more often than they hit and more often than the "safe" but lower-ceiling college picks they might take instead but at least it gives a club a shot at getting what could be upper-round talent in a later draft (one the kid has several years of college) at what turns out to be a bargain rate. The Yanx got Austin Jackson (who they later flipped for Granderson) that way in something like the 7th round after paying big bucks to forego his hoops scholarship. The BoSox tried to do the same with Pedro Alvarez but he turned down their million dollar offer to go to Vanderbilt and wound up three drafts later going to Pittsburgh as the 2nd overall choice and a $6mil bonus.

Edited June 6, 2013 by Guest

[Frayed Knot]

Looks like MLBN is trending towards the football draft route: four hours of coverage tonight (for 73 picks) and that's only after they do an hour of a pre-draft show.
OK, so it's not quite as ridiculous as football which would stretch that many picks out to around 12 hours of coverage and commentary over two days, but they're getting there.

Real picks to begin at 7PM.
Figure the Mets to get on the board with their first pick a little after 8, then their second one (#48) maybe near 10

Mets will then have one of the first picks (#76) when they pick things up again Friday at 1 PM

Edited June 6, 2013 by Guest

[Benjamin Grimm]

I freely acknowledge that I know virtually nothing about any of these guys, but I'm rooting for Hunter Renfroe.

[Vic Sage]

I'm rooting for any motherfucker who can hit good.

[Frayed Knot]

Most people following this stuff don't know anything either beyond whatever thumbnail sketches they read about leading up to it, that's why you hope that mgmt does.

These seem to be the guys most often linked to be candidates (and available) for the Mets' top choice:
(in no particular order)

D.J. Peterson, 3B-1B, University of New Mexico:
Another right-handed college power hitter, Peterson controls the strike zone well and has excellent power to all fields. His 6-1, 205 pound body lacks speed and he may have to switch positions, but his bat is expected to take him through the minors quickly.

Reese McGuire, C, Kentwood HS, Covington, Washington:
High school catching is a strength in this draft and McGuire is the best of the lot, a 6-1, 190 pound lefty hitter with athleticism and excellent defensive skills. His hitting is considered solid and this complete package should take him off the board before the middle of the first round, perhaps even in the top five.

Austin Meadows, OF, Grayson HS, Loganville, Georgia:
Often compared to high school competitor Frazier, Meadows is a lefty hitter at 6-3, 210 pounds. His across-the-board tools may be a bit stronger than Frazier's, but his bat has less zip in it and he plays with less energy. He still projects as a major-league regular and is a lock to go in the top half of the draft.

Hunter Renfroe, OF, Mississippi State University:
A burly-but-athletic type at 6-1, 215, Renfroe took a giant step forward this spring as a power hitter thanks to better plate discipline. He's a certain first-rounder at this point and could go in the top ten under certain scenarios. His strong arm would look good in right field.

Ryne Stanek, RHP, University of Arkansas:
Rated as a top five talent pre-season, Stanek has had an inconsistent spring but could still go in the top dozen on the basis of his 6-4, 190 pound build, low-to-mid-90s fastball, hard slider, and developing changeup. He could be a number two starter if all goes well, or a power reliever if it doesn't.

and if it's not one of them it'll be ... someone else.

[A Boy Named Seo]

Oddly, even though the Mets were willing to pay through the nose for free agents such as Wagner, K-Rod and Jason Bay, they were among a group of teams that included the White Sox, Padres and Astros that were notorious for their unwillingness to spend big on the draft. For whatever reason -- most assumed it was the Wilpon�s cozy relationship with Bud Selig -- the club frequently refused to significantly exceed MLB�s bonus recommendations. This often meant missing out on blue-chip talent at the top of the draft as well as players who may have slid due to bonus demands. A perfect example is 2004, when the Mets had the No. 3 overall pick. That year, Jered Weaver and Stephen Drew were both seen as two of the top talents in the draft, but both were advised by Scott Boras and were demanding big bonuses. Many clubs were scared off by their demands -- this is how the Padres ended up taking Matt Bush at No. 1 overall -- and the Mets were no different. Weaver fell to the Angels at No. 12 and Drew to the Diamondbacks at No. 15 and held out for almost a year before signing just ahead of the 2005 draft for $4 million each. Philip Humber, whom the Mets took at No. 3, signed for $3 million. That�s a difference of $1 million, or roughly 1/16 of what the Mets are paying Jason Bay not to play for them this year. Per wins above replacement, Weaver and Drew are the second- and third-most valuable players in that class, trailing only Justin Verlander, the No. 2 overall pick. This argument has come to be a favorite of writers over recent years. Problem is it's only partially true to begin with and usually not in the way they think. In the "often meant missing out on blue-chip talent at the top of the draft" quote I like how the word "often" is followed by ONE example which isn't surprising really since it's the only one and even that was is largely hindsight. Weaver was coming off a terrific season in college but there was NOT a consensus that he was the best pitcher in the draft that year with many touting Rice University's 'Big Three' (Humber, Niemann & Wade Townsend who went 3rd, 4th, & 8th ) as better bets in the long run. That it didn't happen that way isn't the same thing as saying it was obvious at the time. It also ignores the fact that the Mets have dealt with Boras in the past (both for amateurs & ML talent) and have gone "over-slot" for some of those picks (Pelfrey for one). Touting Drew & Weaver as clear better choices who were only passed over for money reasons is classic after-the-fact "proof" backed with nine years of hindsight. Where the Mets did show a propensity to "cheap-out" on the draft was by not reaching in later rounds for athletic HS-types who could be good some day but could command more money than their draft slot indicated due to having college scholarship in their back pocket (often for football or basketball as well as baseball). Draft money isn't always based on talent, bargaining power through other options plays a role as well so who got more money doesn't necessarily prove who was considered the better talent. Players like those miss more often than they hit and more often than the "safe" but lower-ceiling college picks they might take instead but at least it gives a club a shot at getting what could be upper-round talent in a later draft (one the kid has several years of college) at what turns out to be a bargain rate. The Yanx got Austin Jackson (who they later flipped for Granderson) that way in something like the 7th round after paying big bucks to forego his hoops scholarship. The BoSox tried to do the same with Pedro Alvarez but he turned down their million dollar offer to go to Vanderbilt and wound up three drafts later going to Pittsburgh as the 2nd overall choice and a $6mil bonus.

Eh, I kinda remember differently. Weaver was a fucking man-child, and Boras and the rumors of his Mark Prior, pre-slot, demand $$ definitely scared teams off. The Mets (and 12 other teams before the Angels) really shoulda jumped at him.

Edit: that Verlander guy turned out OK, though.

[A Boy Named Seo]

Hot, steamy, draft action right on your computer!!

http://mlb.mlb.com/mlb/events/draft/y2013/draftlive_app.jsp

[G-Fafif]

Dom Smith from L.A. 1B/OF, "sweet swinger," et al, our No. 1 pick. HS kid.